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Covid vaccines - thread banned users in First Post

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Its always the same. These posters come in with the whole concern angle coupled with the "I'm not an anti-vaxxer", then proceed to make identical logical fallacies and throw up all the same red flags as anti-vaxxers.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I am talking about the raw data from the safety trials that pharmaceutical companies carried out and are the basis for the emergency use approval.

    Eg Pfizer’s pivotal covid vaccine trial was funded by the company and designed, run, analysed, and authored by Pfizer employees. The company and the contract research organisations that carried out the trial hold all the data, and they are refusing to entertain requests to release that data.

    Big pharma does not have a stellar track record. At least three of the companies making covid-19 vaccines have past criminal and civil settlements costing them billions of dollars. One pleaded guilty to fraud. Now the covid pandemic has minted many new pharma billionaires, and vaccine manufacturers have reported tens of billions in revenue.

    And we are left to just trust “in the system,” with the distant hope that the underlying data may become available for independent scrutiny at some point in the future. Transparency is the key to building trust and an important route to answering people’s legitimate questions about the efficacy and safety of vaccines and treatments and the clinical and public health policies established for their use.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,323 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Ok.

    What evidence do you have that there is secret side effects of the vaccine? WHat evidence do you have that all of the studies showing the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines have been falsified?

    Conspiracy theorists her have made a great number of false claims about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. Both now and in the past. Are you saying that we should trust them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    All the usual red flags

    "Big pharma was bad in the past" - All companies have histories, e.g. IBM has had lawsuits, scandals, regulatory issues, etc. It doesn't mean modern product X or Y is automatically "bad". It's judged on it's own merit and ever changing modern standards and regulations.

    "Companies make money" - Mask-makers made billions, doesn't mean anything nefarious is happening

    "And we are left to trust in the system" - There's plenty of transparency and information available. This is available to experts, scientists, medical professionals, vaccine researchers and makers who are taking the same vaccines we are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,885 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    In the case of the COVID vaccines, the trials and studies have been ran across multiple continents by different people, companies and vendors, all reaching the same conclusions and submitted to multiple authorities as well as having multiple peer reviewed papers submitted to multiple different, trusted, publishing medium.

    The bar is incredibly high for medicine, you saw with the FDA approval that the risk/reward of at least 250:1 for myocarditis as it was for young males was debated at length during the approval process, all of which was available publicly.

    As I've said above, you need to define what you think the bar should be and then convince others that the level is rational (while also making out that you have any expertise to know what the bar is), right now you are participating in gish gallop argument of grabbing lots of random items as if it adds any weight at all to your argument, and, as I've explained above, it doesn't.

    And again, emergency approval was never used in the EU, CMA has a higher bar requiring more detailed documentation than emergency approval (as was used in the UK and US and one of the reasons they approved a few weeks before the EU). It also puts the liability onto the manufacturer (in the US there's legislation in place for COVID vaccines and treatments that the government accepts liability).



  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭shillyshilly


    probably shouldn't go down this route, but hey, worth a try anyway...

    say you are right, safety figures were "bought" by the researchers to get it to market....

    as of Friday, there has been over 550 million confirmed, administered, Pfizer vaccines given...

    That, and the Moderna vaccines, as they use MRNA technology, they have been the focus of numerous studies since day 1.

    When I say numerous, I literally mean thousands, of ratified legitimate studies, which are national/international scale, but also localised to specific areas and health concerns...

    We're well over a year into mass vaccination, and over 2 years nearly from proof of concept trials

    The only boxes that haven't been checked from a safety aspect is long term follow ups (which usually only go to year 5, if even, a lot finish at 3 years and pretty much check up that you haven't died)

    Given these have been the most scrutinised vaccines in history, do you not think something of a safety concern would have cropped up by now?

    Case and point, Astra Zeneca.... found an issue, stopped the administration until further evidence was provided, and continued again when the science allowed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,323 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    This is something that always confused me.

    If things are like the conspiracy theorists are saying, how did that happen?


    Surely since they were covering up all the harmful side effects or whatever they'd also have covered that up too?

    Or was that whole thing just an elaborate double bluff or something?


    Won't get an explanation though cause conspiracy theorists have never thought that deeply on their own claims.



  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭shillyshilly


    I don't think they grasp the gravity of alluding to a greater conspiracy about getting these vaccines to market (requires some critical thinking though)....

    I could see the side of governments being bought to get it to market... difficult enough to do with even lesser know medicines, let alone the most studied vaccine of all time...

    But these allusions, also tie in academia, you would literally need to buy off every biological academic in the world who could/would ever step into the realm of studying anything to do with these vaccines...

    you are also undermining biological study, because with everyone bought off in the world and "the info" out there, our future academics who are currently or haven't even started studying for their Bachelors, Masters or Ph.D's, will be doing thesis work on now flawed biology....

    which then turns into further enhancements to something that was never really there in the first place, with possibly new technologies spawning from this etc...

    This notion would fall flat on it's ass in no time.... but hey, everyone is deffo "in on it"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,323 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    And if the motive of all this is "profit" how are they paying off all of these people and governments and institutions? Especially when a large portion of their profits is coming from those governments and institutions?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭shillyshilly




  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    All the red flags I posted were taken from recent editorial in that well known conspiracy theory rag the British Medical Journal.

    Covid-19 vaccines and treatments: we must have raw data, now



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    But wait, the conspiracy thickens!

    Footnotes

    Competing interests: We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and declare that The BMJ is a co-founder of the AllTrials campaign. PD was one of the Cochrane reviewers studying influenza antivirals beginning in 2009, who campaigned for access to data. He also helped organise the Coalition Advocating for Adequately Licensed Medicines (CAALM), which formally petitioned the FDA to refrain from fully approving any covid-19 vaccine this year (docket FDA-2021-P-0786). PD is also a member of Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency, which has sued the FDA to obtain the Pfizer covid-19 vaccine data. The views and opinions do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the University of Maryland.

    This guy is a medical industry insider!!

    Isn't this exactly the sort of scepticism and critisism from inside the world of medical science that fantasy conspiracy theorists tell us does not exist?? and look how it has been hushed up...inside the pages of the BMJ!?

    Again, a person with good critical thinking skills would take a step back and reassess their beliefs at this point. But we know that will not happen with a certain cohort here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭shillyshilly


    that's why you don't rely on the raw data from manufacturer... not from a case that it will be doctored, it's sensitive intellectual property and will never be released until it has to be....

    you setup independent clinical trials to verify what has been claimed...

    there is most definitely an ethical argument there to be made, but from a safety stand point, all that will happen in 2022/23 when the data is released by manufacturer, is that it will be compared to independent safety testing which already exists and will be produced on an ongoing basis through studies



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I don't see any mention of your "appeal to motive" about profits, I don't see a cherry-picked selection of issues Pfizer has had during it's lifetime, and as above, it's an editorialized opinion, wanting the release of information now instead of later this year. I support that, but I also am aware it's hundreds of thousands of pages of data that needs to be prepped and written up, and these things can't be done instantly.

    I believe you wrote you reluctantly have had only one dose, why are you partially vaccinated? 94% of the adult population here is, a much higher amount of medical professionals and experts are, I am quite sure the authors of this article are, do you know something they don't?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I don't see any mention of your "appeal to motive" about profits, I don't see a cherry-picked selection of issues Pfizer has had during it's lifetime.

    😂 😂 😂



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Smiley faces the cornerstone of every reputable response. It's pretty simple, to repeat:

    I believe you wrote you reluctantly have had only one dose, why are you partially vaccinated? 94% of the adult population here is, a much higher amount of medical professionals and experts are, I am quite sure the authors of this article are, do you know something they don't?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Relevant

    "Psychologists have shed light on why seemingly intelligent people ignore the evidence base supporting vaccines and label them unsafe, despite having little to no expertise on scientific methodology.

    They believe anti-vaxxers may be falling prey to a cognitive bias known as the Dunning Kruger effect, in which people overestimate their knowledge about a subject and underestimate how much they don’t know.

    Cognitive biases are a natural human tendency resulting from the mental shortcuts (‘heuristics’) we use subconsciously to process information and fill in blind spots in our knowledge.

    The Dunning–Kruger effect — often referred to as ‘ignorance of one’s own ignorance’ — is a well-documented bias that has been known to psychologists since 1999."

    And the related study

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027795361830340X



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I don't see any mention of your "appeal to motive" about profits, I don't see a cherry-picked selection of issues Pfizer has had during it's lifetime

    The post of mine you took issue with was copied and pasted from the BMJ. So it is strange that whatever red flags, "appeals to motive" and cherry picked selections you saw in my post you were unable to see in the BMJ article.



  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭shillyshilly


    full transparency about this article...

    It is an opinion piece on the claimed efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Its an editorial.

    Pay attention to the footnote

    • Competing interests: We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and declare that The BMJ is a co-founder of the AllTrials campaign. PD was one of the Cochrane reviewers studying influenza antivirals beginning in 2009, who campaigned for access to data. He also helped organise the Coalition Advocating for Adequately Licensed Medicines (CAALM), which formally petitioned the FDA to refrain from fully approving any covid-19 vaccine this year (docket FDA-2021-P-0786). PD is also a member of Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency, which has sued the FDA to obtain the Pfizer covid-19 vaccine data. The views and opinions do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the University of Maryland.

    It's an opinion piece. People in the industry can have differing or even extreme opinions, it's interesting that you highlight this one.

    Here's an opinion piece responding to Doshi's views on ""trustworthiness & meaningfulness" of COVID vaccine results"


    Here's another opinion piece on one of Doshi's editorials

    http://hildabastian.net/index.php/covid-19/103-unpacking-doshi-take

    And here's a response carried in the Lancet

    Here's a piece questioning what's going on at the BMJ, and why it's being embraced by anti-vaxxers

    Interesting.

    Is there a reason you are avoiding my question?

    You are partially vaccinated correct?



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    None of the above explains how you managed to see red flags, "appeals to motive" and cherry picked selections in my post that you were unable to see in the BMJ article.

    I'm happy to answer the question re being partially vaccinated if you can explain the above?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You read all those links in 6 minutes? Wow, impressive.

    Interesting how I picked up red flags that other people have also picked up on, and if we look further we find:

    "So I was surprised to stumble upon an article titled “Johns Hopkins Scientist Reveals Shocking Report on Flu Vaccines,” which popped up on an anti-vaccine website two weeks ago. Johns Hopkins University is my own institution, and I hadn’t heard any shocking new findings. I soon discovered that this article contained only a tiny seed of truth, surrounded by a mountain of anti-vaccine misinformation. Most of it focused on a report published in early 2013 by Peter Doshi, a former postdoctoral fellow at Hopkins.

    First, as Snopes.com has already pointed out, Doshi is not a virologist or an epidemiologist, but rather an anthropologist who studies comparative effectiveness research. He never conducted influenza research at Hopkins. (He’s now an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Pharmacy.) Second, Doshi’s 2013 article was an opinion piece (a “feature”), not an original research article, and it did not report any new findings. Third, it is highly misleading to suggest (as the anti-vax article’s title does) that Doshi somehow represents Johns Hopkins University. At Johns Hopkins Hospital, the flu vaccine is required of all personnel who have contact with patients, as a good-practices effort to minimize the risk that a patient will catch the flu from a caregiver."

    Since I suspect you aren't reading these, to highlight from a piece I previously provided:

    "Since then, Peter Doshi somehow managed to become an associate editor of The BMJ. How this happened, I have no idea, but periodically he publishes posts for The BMJ that are—to put it kindly—far below the standards that a medical journal with the history of The BMJ should ever associate itself with. Early this year, for instance, he published one more such blog post entitled, Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—we need more details and the raw data. It was a post custom designed to try to claim that Pfizer and Moderna had exaggerated the efficacy of their vaccines through some statistical prestidigitation. He also called for the “raw data,” echoing a Thacker technique of cloaking dubious claims in issues that almost everyone can agree on, such as transparency in clinical trials. (John Skylar and Skeptical Raptor also discussed the deception behind his articles.) Doshi once also bought into a truly risible conspiracy theory about the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) that I hadn’t even seen from antivaxxers. There was much mockery. More recently, Doshi published more misinformation in The BMJ about COVID-19 vaccines, claiming that there was “no biodistribution data” (even though there was and biodistribution data aren’t required for vaccines anyway) and insinuating that the trials had been unblinded earlier this year not out of ethical concerns about leaving the subjects in the placebo group susceptible to a potentially deadly pandemic disease, but rather to hide differences in adverse events between the groups and to facilitate the ability of businesses and local governments to mandate COVID-19 vaccines not yet approved by the FDA but only available under an EUA. (I wrote about the issue of unblinding the Pfizer and Moderna clinical trials in April. Suffice to say that it’s a complex issue of clinical trial ethics and science, far more so than what Doshi implies.)"

    As mentioned by others, I have zero idea how this guy is still an editor at the BMJ. But thanks to you, I now know why I've been seeing so many BMJ articles in anti-vax threads, they are all this one guy, Peter Doshi.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    None of the above explains how you managed to see red flags, "appeals to motive" and cherry picked selections in my post that was word for word the same as the BMJ article yet you were unable to see them in the BMJ article.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,487 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    I refuse to answer your questions until you answer mine is a well worn anti-vaxxer path. Usually followed by a comical stomping of feet and storming out of the thread. Why do you dodge?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Not dodging, just wondering if Dohnjoe would explain why he saw “appeals to motive” in one section of text but not another even though they were the same text. But it looks like he cannot explain that.

    the short answer on my vaccination status is yes I am partially vaxxed, because by the time it came round for me to committing to the second shot, it was blatantly obvious that the vaccine was doing very little to prevent infection/transmission so the argument for getting vaccinated was a lot weaker than it was 6 months earlier.

    there were a few other influencing factors but that was the main one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You paraphrased Peter Doshi directly in your post:

    You wrote: "Big pharma does not have a stellar track record. At least three of the companies making covid-19 vaccines have past criminal and civil settlements costing them billions of dollars. One pleaded guilty to fraud. Now the covid pandemic has minted many new pharma billionaires, and vaccine manufacturers have reported tens of billions in revenue."

    He wrote: "Big pharma is the least trusted industry.30 At least three of the many companies making covid-19 vaccines have past criminal and civil settlements costing them billions of dollars.31 One pleaded guilty to fraud.31 Other companies have no pre-covid track record. Now the covid pandemic has minted many new pharma billionaires, and vaccine manufacturers have reported tens of billions in revenue.32"

    I replied that your post, effectively his words, demonstrated anti-vaxx red flags. Lo and behold turns out others have pointed out that the guy you were lifting almost verbatim has displayed all sorts of anti-vaccine red flags going back years. So yes, I was bang on.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    But you replied to my post pointing out that my words were the words of a BMJ editorial:

    I don't see any mention of your "appeal to motive" about profits, I don't see a cherry-picked selection of issues Pfizer has had during it's lifetime.

    So the question I keep asking you and you keep dodging/deflecting is:

    what “appeal to motive about profits” and “cherry picked selection” of Pfizer issues did you see in my post that you did not see in the BMJ article?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,885 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    That's a changed story from previously about why you didn't get the second shot.

    Had first shot without much drama, and turned up for second appointment. Standing in queue, I read the do you have any of these symptoms - cough etc. Yes I had two or three of them, and told the person who asked me when booking in. She didn't really know what to do, and asked me did I want to go ahead to which I replied I had no idea, was it safe to do so? She summoned a doctor who basically said the same thing, did I want to have the vaccine despite having the symptoms? Again I said I had no idea, is it safe to do so? He was pretty non committal and was not able to give me any info or advice, other than saying it was up to me. Eventually I said I would do whatever he specifically recommended, at which point he said not to get second shot, go away get a PCR and set up another appointment. None of it inspired confidence.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    As I said, there were other issues, and if you can navigate the boards search to pull up the long answer posted previously by all means quote me and happy to discuss the other issues further.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,885 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It's posted above, looking at the rest of the thread it's clear you didn't really know what you were talking about then (comments re: immunity especially). You seem to have spun quickly down the rabbit hole since then, at least the certs aren't needed now.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Apologies, your quoting of me did not show up when I loaded the page.

    in the short answer I deliberately said “ because by the time it came round for me to committing to the second shot” oN account of the fact that it was quite late in the day due to not getting the second shot at the first appointment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,885 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It sounds like you would have got the shot if you hadn't been showing some symptoms of COVID and then spun out when a doctor told you to get a PCR test.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yes, I was ready to get the second shot on that day of the second appointment. A little hesitant for sure, but on balance I believed the right thing to do was go ahead with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Yeah my bad I didn't read the entire piece, AND I missed that crucial footnote. I also made the mistake of assuming this guy was in a related field.

    Do you have a habit of reading the BMJ on a regular basis? Because these sort of blog posts don't usually show up in the news, but they do feature heavily on anti-vaxx and crank sites/feeds..

    I am still trying to give you the benefit of the doubt, but you seem to be pulling a bit of a Peter Doshi on us here..



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Thanks, not reading the entire piece makes sense, but I must say I have no idea why missing the footnote or the assumption that the author of the piece was in a related field would explain why you failed to notice exactly the same things you objected to when you thought they were my words.

    Unless of course there was an element of cognitive bias involved in your reading of the the article - cognitive biases being a natural human tendency resulting from the mental shortcuts (‘heuristics’) we use subconsciously to process information.

    To answer your question, I'm interested in the detail of Covid rather than the headlines, so yes I do read the BMJ website Covid section on a regular basis, as I do the Lancet, our own HSE/HSPC releases and data, as well of those of the UK government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Right, cognitive bias, says the poster who picks a very juicy outlier from the consensus to side with

    What is the consensus of the Lancet, HSE, UK gov, experts, etc on the safety of Covid vaccines?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    What is the consensus of the Lancet, HSE, UK gov, experts, etc on the safety of Covid vaccines?

    Unquestionably and indisputably safe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I don't know if they are safe for sure, I'm not convinced anybody does. I am pretty sure they are not unquestionably safe.

    My issue with the vaccines is that the blind faith in their efficacy at preventing infection and transmission in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary calls into question the blind faith in their safety.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,323 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    So all of those experts who disagree with you are all lying? Are they just not as good at medicine as you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    No one is saying vaccines are 1000% safe. Not the Lancet, not anyone. If you think that, then you are grossly mistaken (we've had injuries, even deaths from Covid vaccines). What they are saying is that vaccines are overwhelmingly safe.

    Again, if you think you know more than the consensus of experts on this, okay, but what information do you have that they don't?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Of course I don’t have information that the consensus of experts have, that’s ridiculous.

    i have far less information, only what is published. However a lot of what is published is very informative.

    look at the UK vaccine surveillance reports, for some time they have been publishing the covid case rates per 100k vaxxed and unvaxxed.

    those numbers have, for a few months, been showing that the vaxxed are contracting covid at a far higher rate than the unvaxxed.

    that i think is a worry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,323 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    What point are you arguing man. The safety or the effectiveness?


    In this post you only seem to be discussing the effectiveness. But a few posts ago you were arguing against its safety.

    Flip flopping like this is a pretty common anyi vaxx tactic. They switch between the two topics to keep themselves from being cornered on either.


    So do you agree with the majority of experts and organisations that state the vaccine is as safe as any other medicine? Or are they wrong about this also?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I think your worry is misplaced, reading one of the latest ones they address this


    "Results

    The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated (Table 12). This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.

    The rate of hospitalisation within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated individuals.

    The rate of death within 28 days or within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and again is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to fully vaccinated individuals.

    Interpretation of data

    These data should be considered in the context of the vaccination status of the population groups shown in the rest of this report. In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than from COVID-19. The vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths should not be used to assess vaccine effectiveness because of differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are crude rates that do not take into account underlying statistical biases in the data. There are likely to be systematic differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, for example

    testing behaviour is likely to be different between people with different vaccination status, resulting in differences in the chances of being identified as a case

    • many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues

    • people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

    • people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

    These biases become more evident as more people are vaccinated and the differences between the vaccinated and unvaccinated population become systematically different in ways that are not accounted for without undertaken formal analysis of vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described on pages 4 to 12 in this report."

    That addresses it pretty well. And on the chart below that (which I suspect you are reading) they put another big disclaimer

    "1 In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19."

    Does that alleviate your worry?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    A study from Jersey, where 75% of the pop is vaccinated found "unvaccinated people were between 2.2 – 3.7 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those who have received at least two doses. "




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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    No, this bit is precisely the cause of my worry:

    testing behaviour is likely to be different between people with different vaccination status, resulting in differences in the chances of being identified as a case

    • many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues

    • people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

    • people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

    these explanations have been used for months now, and may have been plausibleish to explain very slightly higher rates in the vaxxed than the unvaxxed? But are they credible to explain double the rates?

    So the unvaccinated, who are supposedly less health conscious, are being twice as careful now as the more health conscious vaccinated? Were they only 1.2 times as careful in late October/early November?

    But despite being so much more likely to be cautious against contracting Covid, the unvaccinated are much less likely to get themselves tested, if they do get symptoms? Notwithstanding the fact the unvaccinated are incentivized to get tested due to use of recovery certs?

    And these differing behaviours only hold true for the reporting period of the latest data, prior to that period the more cautious unvaccinated were actually "more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report" than the more reckless vaccinated thus "this gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks"

    And the above continues to hold true over numerous reporting periods during which the gap between the vaccinated and unvaccinated has continued to widen?

    Do you really think that is plausible?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Just checking you understand proportions (you never know on this forum). If there are 49 unvaccinated in ICU, and 51 vaccinated, that means there are many more times the number of unvaccinated in ICU than vaccinated, you understand that right?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yes I understand that perfectly. Why do you ask?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,190 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Good, and you see the rates I posted for Jersey. Unvaccinated approx 3 times more likely to contract Covid than vaccinated..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 334 ✭✭Astartes


    The very fact that countries made it impossible to sue the corporations if it destroys some of their people raises an eyebrow no?


    Why aren't they open source also? If they are so crucial for humanities survival?



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