Will you be taking a booster?
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Before the delta variant, the mRNA vaccines were 95% effective at preventing coronavirus infection in the first month after the final shot, falling to 88% by the third month, according to an analysis of health records from over 14,000 Covid-positive male veterans over the age of 65.
Through July to September, a period of high delta transmission in the U.S., protection against infection had fallen to 62% in the first month after the second shot and 58% by the third month, a similar pattern from the pre-delta period.
After the third month—which the researchers could only during times of high delta transmission—vaccine effectiveness decreased at an accelerating rate, falling to 38% during month four to a low of around 20% in months five through seven.
With mRNA vaccines, you’ll reach peak protection roughly two or three weeks post-booster. The antibodies you’ll gain from the booster will eventually wane over time, and scientists are still working to learn how long your peak protection will last.
Ho, one of the scientists studying that question, says early results show that your booster’s protection could wane at a similar rate to your second vaccine dose.
“The waning that’s been seen so far [after the original two shot regimen], you would lose half your level by two months, so a half life of two months,” he says.
At some point, Ho says, you’ll probably need another booster shot — echoing Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, who told CNBC earlier this month that omicron’s spread could accelerate the need for a fourth shot. But, Ho stresses, it’s far too early to know what that extra dose’s timing will look like.
There’s no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There’s no knowing where we’re rowing
Or which way the river’s flowing
Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a-blowing
Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing
Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they’re certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing
– ‘Wondrous Boat Ride’, from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (1971)
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