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ESRI confirms Irish welfare dependent population is TWICE that of Germany or France

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    #32
    techman1
    Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭techman1


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343414#Comment_118343414

    Exactly, that's why this is still all possible, the bonanza we are getting from corporation tax, it's also the reason why we are closing down hospitality yet again, the government doesn't have to properly account for the lost revenue and the business supports they have to pay out as well. Corporation tax is preventing proper reform of the Irish systems



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    #33
    Confused11811
    Registered Users Posts: 693 ✭✭✭Confused11811


    Welfare payments aren't just for the unemployed so you argument of the "false statistic of Irish unemployment rate of 5% or so pre-Covid" is completely wrong. That 12 percent of households could include lone parents, people on disability payments, carers or widows/widowers etc. As a report there a no details of the metrics used and the source of it's data. For example does it assume a household with a lone parents working but also in receipt of one parent family is a non-working house hold or have the cross referenced social welfare records with current revenue records. It also doesn't say if those in the asylum system who are entitled to welfare payments but not allowed to work are included.

    That's not to say there aren't issues with some long term unemploymed people especially intergenerational unemployed households but from the get go the assumptions are wrong



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    #34
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,762 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343422#Comment_118343422

    That's comforting...

    "Ireland to have highest debt per head in Europe this year" https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-to-have-highest-debt-per-head-in-europe-this-year-1.4503652

    Public debt stands at a mind boggling €150,000 per income tax payer - that's not people in employment, as 37% of employed people don't pay income tax.

    Menawhile, 80% of the traveller community are unemployed.



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    #35
    generic_throwaway
    Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343355#Comment_118343355

    a) only a complete moron would think this refers to absolute numbers

    b) dismissing this rather alarming fact as clickbait is...interesting



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    #36
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343400#Comment_118343400

    Using that argument, welfare should be doubled



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    #37
    generic_throwaway
    Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343413#Comment_118343413

    70 euros a week (your 'high' number) is indeed nothing. Your mortgage on a 300k house will be around 300 euros a week. And rent for an 2 bed apartment in Dublin on the open market will be closer to 400 a week.

    There aren't easy answers here but it is very dangerous to create a class of people who are entirely welfare dependent as guess what most of their kids (note that middle-income earners are struggling to afford to have children) are going to do when they grow up?



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    #38
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,838 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058223432/esri-confirms-irish-welfare-dependent-population-is-twice-that-of-germany-or-france

    ...or maybe the cost of living has sky rocketed, primarily due to encouraging and facilitating a fire sector lead economy, driving the cost of accommodation out the window, couple that with the encouragement of the undermining of labour markets, causing much lower wage inflation in comparison to this property price inflation, resulting in a big pile of sh1te! but lets point the finger at the welfare classes, theyre definitely at fault here, theyve definitely caused this one!



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    #39
    generic_throwaway
    Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343822#Comment_118343822

    You are right, it could be and probably is including all those categories of people - but presumably Germany and France have those categories too...



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    #40
    Brucie Bonus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343456#Comment_118343456

    Yeah but got Irish Water there.



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    #41
    Brucie Bonus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    People in the US who work for Walmart, also receive welfare.

    It's my understanding that people only receive what its deemed they need.

    If there's concern about the welfare bill I'd look at the causes for the need rather than the recipients, who don't make policy.



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    #42
    generic_throwaway
    Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343973#Comment_118343973

    Where do you think Ireland should have focused efforts to develop the economy since the 1980s, given that high tech and finance aren't to your liking? What well-paid roles with a solid future should we have cultivated here?

    Note: I don't expect you to answer in anything other than complete waffle. Just pointing out that you moan about everthing but have no answers for even the most basic questions about alternatives.



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    #43
    angela1711
    Registered Users Posts: 469 ✭✭angela1711


    In fairness how can anyone expect people to work for minimum wage which is currently 10.20 an hour that’s just over 400e for a 40 hour week, take away tax and you are left with just shy of 400e. Now that may be fair enough for students, people just out of college or mothers with young kids that just want to make some extra money but if you take a 30 year old that works in a factory, 30kms away from their home, who needs to pay rent and all the usual bills they would actually be foolish even considering working for that kind of money.

    Between petrol, car insurance, tax, nct, work clothes, food for work etc they will be left with no more than they would get on the dole. On top of it they actually have to get up everyday and actually do some work to get paid.

    Now take that same person on the dole:

    203e a week

    HAP

    Medical Card

    Fuel allowance

    Little to no need for a car so that’s your petrol, insurance, nct costs down to 0.

    At home all day so doesn’t need too many clothes.

    Plenty of time to cook or go to mums for dinner so saving on food costs here.

    No real need for phone top ups can just use WhatsApp or messenger to call/text people.

    Let’s now say that this 30year old decides to find himself a partner and have a baby. Calculations are looking even better now:

    203e for himself

    150 (almost) for herself

    40 (almost for the baby)

    almost 400 here x 4 weeks= 1200

    140 a month child benefit

    =1340

    On top of this their rent is now even lower and they are entitled to a bigger house. Medical cards for all. Fuel allowance (additional almost 200e a month)

    Almost free Creche. If he decides to do some work for extra hand in cash and she does some house cleaning for a couple of ladies down the road now you are looking for a monthly income of 3000e on top of hap, medical cards, heavily subsided childcare. And remember they are on their way to a social house which they could subsequently buy at a serious discount (the lower they earn the higher the discount).

    So why would anyone of sound mind work for minimum wage ?



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    #44
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Any I know getting unemployment have housing at percentage but also work cash job like mind child etc. I don't know any who has to "survive " on 200



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    #45
    angela1711
    Registered Users Posts: 469 ✭✭angela1711


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344179#Comment_118344179

    Pensioners maybe but it’s close to 300e a week with fuel, telephone and in some cases living alone allowance. I know fuel is only paid for a portion of the year but they would generally have around 250e a week without it.



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    #46
    Brucie Bonus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344179#Comment_118344179

    Thats defrauding welfare. If they can organise side work they should organise more of it and sign off.

    They don't get the 200 with a nod and a wink that they can work on the quiet.



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    #47
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,459 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343649#Comment_118343649

    Because someone else was providing your accommodation, paying your utility bills, washing your jocks and socks, dishing up the meat and two veg, paying for your TV and broadband....

    Check your privilege.



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    #48
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,459 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343896#Comment_118343896

    I'm the complete moron because I believed the words that Fred wrote? Interesting.

    I'd respectfully suggest that Fred knew exactly he was doing in hyping up the matter, the 'clickbait' approach. Perhaps most people wouldn't be all that alarmed if he had actually been clear and accurate?



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    #49
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I have been studying this for a few years.

    Yes, Ireland leads the EU in what is know as people living in households with Very Low Work Intensity.

    Similarly, we have a lot of jobless households.

    It's important to know that unemployment is not the same as joblessness.

    We have had low unemployment here, but high joblessness.

    We have high levels of economic inactivity, meaning we have lots of hh with zero market income.

    Barra Roantree of the ESRI gave a nice lecture on it:

    https://www.esri.ie/sites/default/files/media/file-uploads/2020-01/Slides_1.pdf



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    #50
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Look at page 20-25 of Roantree's analysis.

    "How does this compare to our neighbours? ...

    as where we really stand out is % of working-age adults with no market income

    Comparatively low rates of employment among single parent households in particular

    … who make up a larger share of total households than in other countries

    ... while 19% of working-age adults living alone say permanently disabled/unfit for work"



    Compared to other countries, we have loads of lone parents, and many of these are inactive

    We also have really high rates of disability (I don't know why).



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    #51
    joseywhales
    Registered Users Posts: 4,011 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    What ever happened to survival of the fittest? If there is no jeopardy in life then you won't get any growth and productivity. Why are people entitled to anything? If a cheetah is too slow to catch an antelope it dies. Hence cheetahs have evolved to be fast to live. It's seems humans want to de-evolve, since the slowest seem to procreate the most because we incentivise it.



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    #52
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Seamus Coffey of UCC has done work on this:

    2017_VLWI_2004-2017_Coffey.jpg




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    #53
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I will provide as much data as I can:


    Coffey_VLWI_byhhtype.jpg
    AROP_and_VLWI_scatter.png
    LFPR_Coffey.png




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    #54
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    This is bad:

    30-Figure1-1.png

    Figure 1: Workless rates among fathers and mothers in the EU-SILC compared to OECD LFS 1981- 1990 


    Source: http://repec.ioe.ac.uk/REPEc/pdf/qsswp1705.pdf



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    #55
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343267#Comment_118343267

    Is this it?

    https://www.esr.ie/article/view/1981


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    #56
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343413#Comment_118343413

    I will give you the example of my relations.

    Both parents claim welfare long-term - JSA and DA. They are not unemployed or disabled.

    They received 100,000 in grants for kids going to college.

    They operate a nixer which brings in (I'm not sure about it), up to 40,000 gross, before costs. (i.e. the 40k is not pure profit).

    They drive an AUDI Q5 SUV.

    Now, you could be bitter about it, but I am past that stage. I could report them to the DSP.

    I am stoic about it, this is Ireland, this is the country that many people vote for.



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    #57
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344881#Comment_118344881

    They made a movie about this called 'Idiocracy'. It's hilarious.



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    #58
    Brucie Bonus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344881#Comment_118344881

    Yeah, we mostly moved on from clubbing each other over the head and evolved into societies.

    There is heavy inequality and the system is designed to work easy for some not so much for others.

    TBF, if we went back to survival of the fittest do you think half the gombeen TD policy makers would survive the winter?



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    #59
    Brucie Bonus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345457#Comment_118345457

    It is pretty good. The main plot is about how Mountain Dew owned all the state contracts and farmers were encouraged and subsidised to use it instead of water and there was massive crop failure because of it. The vested interests wanted a stupid docile society.

    How long do you think it would be before we had some form of a revolution if welfare was cut to low income workers already struggling?



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    #60
    kowloonkev
    Registered Users Posts: 2,143 ✭✭✭kowloonkev


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343400#Comment_118343400

    Why not give the money saved from reducing welfare to the people in minimum wage jobs who actually have a sense of honour to earn their own money when they could just as easily be ending up with a similar net earnings by sitting on their holes?

    That would also go back into the economy, no?



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    #61
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345462#Comment_118345462

    Even without a revolution it would have pretty bad consequences.

    The incentive for criminal activity would increase. How much are we willing to pay for a relatively peaceful society? If you lived in Chicago where there was dozens of shootings every weekend, how much would you pay to have all that stop? How much would you pay for a reduction in crime around you?

    There is a serious issue that there just aren't as many jobs anymore due to automation and AI or financial recessions and global pandemics. The number of stable jobs has been decreasing for some time and the gig economy is growing.

    High unemployment always follows a stagnant or recessive economy so it can't all be down to people just choosing not to work. Can we really have infinite growth?

    Building upon the idea of the previous poster, K, I like the idea of a universal basic income for everybody. Enough to live on(just about) and if you decide to work then that's up to you- you will reap the benefit of it fully. Everyone is treated fairly. A fortune would be saved on the bureaucracy alone, no more allowances; except maybe child allowances(As a new person now should also receive at least a percentage of this UBI). One single payment for everyone. (I haven't fully considered this, maybe there could be other exceptions)

    It would remove one of the issues that divides society. Nixers no longer benefit. The worst off would benefit much more as a percentage of their earnings, entrepreneurs would have more stability; more freedom to try, the unemployed will no longer be forced into morally objectionable jobs, the dis-incentive to work for the unemployed would be removed, minimum wage workers would get a justified boost; farmers and carers would both be better off finding things far easier. People that contribute nothing would 'suffer' the most, but many of the people that currently don't contribute might start.



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