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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I don't know why they'd really think they could sign a deal with the US under Trump. A trade deal couldn't be an executive order, and Trump's Northern Ireland envoy issued a warning about the border. If that was the plan all along, they wouldn't have extended Brexit until the end of Trump's term when he couldn't do it.

    It's possible they thought something rosy was going to happen, I suppose in the same way they thought Brexit would be a doddle, but it wasn't going to happen. Trump was so America First, and his supporters the same, a trade deal with the UK wouldn't be worth the fight to get it through the Ways and Means committee. And even then, services have to be done effectively state by state. It's nothing like being in the EU.

    I'll never understand how people can consume so much news and media from the US and not understand that both sides of the house have strong ties with Ireland. It's like people have become to overwhelmed with information they resort to Democrats good EU good Republicans bad Brexit bad.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I've been telling since 2016 that the UK is becoming "Western Russia". Yes, it's slightly exaggerated but not far away from the truth and it's been moving to that direction - oligarchic pseudo-democracy with a facade of democracy, government of corrupted liars and thieves and, country with a very strong pro-government propaganda press, a country with a nuclear arsenal and post-imperial heritage. There are many parallels to Russia in the fact.

    You could call this UK regime a Western version of Orbán's Hungary or Kaczynski's Poland if you think the parallel with Russia goes too far...

    Post edited by McGiver on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,051 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Trump's trade partners usually got exactly what they wanted from him, he was a very weak negotiator.

    Even allowing for that there is no trade deal from any country or all that is gonna make up for the loss through Brexit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,161 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Yes, I think their lack of a written constitution and their disastrous FPTP system leaves them extremely vulnerable. Virtually everyone in the Brexit wing of the Tory Party and those who write for and control the right wing press is a wrong 'un and not to be trusted. British democracy could remain secure only as long as fairly decent and respectable people remained at the helm.....this shower are dragging it down to never seen before depths.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Exactly, I see the FPTP as the primary reason. If they had some sort of a PR the lack of a codified constitution is not such a big deal. However, the FPTP and absence of a proper constitution is an explosive combo which needed only only time to end up as it did. It was not a matter of if but when it would happen. Gutter press, social media amplification, Cambridge Analytica, Russian disinformation war all greatly contributed but FPTP was key. Without FPTP Brexit and Johnsonism would have been much harder yo achieve and likely not even possible.

    Post edited by McGiver on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,508 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Being reported that David Frost has quit the UK government. Quite the shock, be interesting to see how this develops. Presumably his successor will be one to really shake up the EU and make them see sense (as the Express will doubtless declare)

    Brexit minister Lord Frost walks out on Boris | Daily Mail Online



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,161 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Interesting to see if this is over Brexit / the Protocol or if he has had a falling out with Johnson on some other issue. Reports say he is unhappy with the 'political direction' the UK Govt is taking.

    Probably good news from the point of view of the Protocol. Most observers felt Frost was a terrible negotiator, anti-EU / Europe and a not particularly pleasant person to have to deal with.

    Edit : it's not the Protocol that's bugging him, rather all the other stuff like Covid, net zero and tax rises.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Britains Brexit Minister has resigned in protest at the terrible Brexit deal that he, as Brexit Minister, negotiated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Interesting development...

    What happens now?

    Šefčovič must be exhaling in jubilation, he can get a break, at least for a while. Can someone worse than Frost replace Frost? 😎



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,947 ✭✭✭Jizique


    He made a speech a couple of weeks ago decrying the high tax direction of the govt and extolling regulatory independence; he is very popular with the party members due to his aggressive approach and I would not be surprised to see him look for the next safe seat (he would have fancied this week's one); I suspect he has his sights set on the top job



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That's surprising but only because I hadn't seen the possibility really talked about.

    Makes sense I suppose. Other reasons will be given but a lot of it would be Brexit and his discomfort at how it played out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,624 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    The chaos of the UK government that keeps on giving. Better than any reality tv.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭maebee


    saying he's 'disillusioned' with the Government's Covid Plan B restrictions, vaccine passports, tax hikes and the cost of Net Zero green agenda

    Lord Brexit is blaming everything under the sun except the real reason.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,161 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Is he even a member of the Conservative Party? He's never actually stood for election for them at any level, not even as a local councillor.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Must be a big protocol u turn coming if Frost has resigned. He talked tough for so long he couldn’t face a big climb down.



  • Registered Users Posts: 837 ✭✭✭Going Strong



    I would think that he doesn't want to be linked to Johnson any longer now that Boris is a dead man walking.

    Just as Frost switched from, if not a Europhile, but at least a Euro-pragmatist when Brexit was the only game in town, he'll now portray himself as the reddest of raw meat Small Statists to keep in with the ERG elements in the Conservative party.

    Let's face it, it will be p1ss-easy for someone like Frost to say that he could have done X,Y or Z about the NIP or the limitations of the "Oven Ready" deal but Blundering Boris, who never reads a policy document let alone understands one, was against it. Who'll believe Boris The Liar?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Is frosts resignation yet another dead cat from Boris



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,864 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Or a dead cat from Frost.

    NI protocol is going badly for him, so he resigns before anyone notices his finger prints were all over it. His tough talking is only going nowhere, but badly, and the end of that road is approaching fast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,754 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Doubt it. Frost is Johnsons Brexit lead. He was able to run Brexit with little or no scrutiny.

    This is a major blow for Brexit. Frost, if one recalls, was appointed because TM and Ollie Robbins had been too eager to please the EU and Frost was going to hammer them. And he was clearly very anti EU.

    IMO Johnson or someone close, has seen the dead end they are facing and looking for a bit of back tracking, and that would have gone down badly with Frost.

    While no doubt this will be spun as something different, and I see the excuse is Covid reg and tax rises, Frost was in the cabinet for one reason only, he should have no position on those things as, according to his own Tory colleagues, he should be ignored as he wasn't democratically elected.

    His replacement, and how fast they line one up, will be very telling in which direction Johnson is planning on going.

    Post edited by Leroy42 on


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    He got Brexit done!.nothing to do with caving in on the ecj



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    Ladies and gents, font be getting to excited over frosty resignation letter, I am betting he turns up in Brussels next Jan as the british brexit negotiator claiming the resignation letter that frosty wrote and peppa accepted needs to be withdrawn immediately as it was a bad resignation letter.


    The EU suspect the resignation letter has been written in bad faith, and are reserving judgment until they actually see frosty has actually resigned



  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'd say the chances of being a Tory Leader, without being an MP are slim to none. So, it's a bit of a wasted flounce off and toys thrown out of the pram moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,161 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Get a load of this : a leaked WhatsApp conversation this evening from what appears to be the ERG, discussing Frost's departure.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,754 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Steve Baker is implying that he persuaded Farage to drop out of the election, thus helping the Tories get their massive majority.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Posts with insults removed.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,754 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    As Faisal points out, Frost laying out what was clearly the reason behind Brexit all the time. Cut in regulations and reduction of taxes.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Fantastic tweet from Ken Clarke:


    Schadenfreude comes to mind …



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    "and the WhatsApp Group". Politics today in a nutshell.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,700 ✭✭✭54and56


    Please please please let his replacement be Steve Baker or Marc Francois.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,754 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Baker has already ruled himself out. None of them will want to be anywhere near it.

    Easier to be on the sidelines complaining about it.

    Frost was 100% committed to Brexit and the best he managed was a deal that even he admits is terrible compared to either EU membership or what was promised.

    Despite the spin, this is a disaster for Johnson, and a massive blow to Brexit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Glad to hear he's gone. Not sure his replacement is going to be much better all the same. There seems to be a strategy of having a 'bullish' Brexit minister that does his best to destabilise matters in the public eye. I'm not convinced that approach is going to change because I don't think they have any other idea what to do other than stamping their feet about how the protocol - which they helped negotiate and won an election on - is so unfair.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,051 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    He already has climbed down. It happened weeks ago when he said day after day that art. 50 would be triggered and then suddenly went silent



  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The history books will be full of WhatsApp screen grabs...

    Such strange times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,031 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    The WhatsApp stuff shows us that the ERG still want no deal. But how big a group is this in the parliamentary party at the moment? Still surely a minority. They know for sure now there's no US deal. The ERG WhatsApp group name is scary.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    Johnson was forced by the US, EU and reality to u-turn on the NI protocol and Frost wanted to keep himself ideologically pure (and possibly avoid some of the association with the extra brexit burden coming on 1 Jan 2022) - possibly looking for the same or a higher office in the cabinet of Johnson's replacement.

    Johnson will likely need to replace Frost with someone equally or even more ideologically pure in order to prevent the desertion of the rabid Brexiters and keep the support of the Tory selectorate.

    The only way for an addict to begin the recovery process is to hit rock bottom - the UK hasn't hit it yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Tropheus




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 684 ✭✭✭farmerval


    I assume it will be rinse and repeat, whoever Johnson will appoint will be promised Johnson's full backing etc. etc. etc. and when the next showdown appears Johnson won't press the nuclear button and they'll end up like Frost, having promised to give the mighty EU a good kicking from plucky global Britain, they too will have to quietly drop the big threats.

    It's really hard to see how they will climb down from where they have placed themselves. They're spinning this totally unattainable version of Britain, as global leaders, as the most desirable place in the world, the way they spin it, it's the only place illegal immigrants want to be.

    The narrative is there in all their policies, controlled immigration under almost impossible conditions because Britain is such a desirable place to go to do all the menial tasks that no-one else wants to do. Right now it's talk of Daffodil picking next spring.

    There's several industries where the workforce are almost exclusively immigrant, Meat processing, lot's of the intensive agricultural labour, waste collection and sorting etc. A huge amount of the takeaway industry is first and second generation immigrants.

    The difference there is that so many immigrants that came to Britain in the post war era came to build lives not just to work double jobs because they loved doing what the locals didn't want to do.

    The Brexiteers love the narrative that potential immigrants are queuing round the block and when the great and mighty Global Britain whistles they'll come running on whatever terms and conditions that Britain offers, like emergency truck drivers, you can come but be gone by Christmas eve.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Good piece in the Guardian about the faux libertarians in the Tory Party

    Never let any of them say they are in favour of freedom



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,161 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It hasn't been widely reported yet but it appears that the UK is now seeing net 'migration' of EU citizens and workers i.e. more EU citizens are leaving than arriving.

    Did they honestly expect anything else though? Five and a half years of EU / Europe bashing from the Govt, the media and the English public, with the message going out that EU citizens were most unwelcome and considered a burden and a drain on the country.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Thats correct. And I'm loving the suffering they are doing for it.

    Food rotting in the ground, logistics services in tatters and so on.

    A small rump of the Tory party has succeeded in rendering GB Inc totally dysfunctional and on the road to serious and long term economic recession, if not depression.

    If thats what it takes for ordinary Brits to wake up and initiate a reset, to take back control of their own Country, so be it. Its in Ireland's longer term interests that they do so. But we can still prosper at a good level even if they don't.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Schadenfreude only goes so far. Brexit was functionally 50/50 with many presumably feeling deep Buyers Remorse as time went on, and the truth showing its hand; the only hard truth is that those with the least will suffer the most, while the rich and powerful will either leave at their earliest convenience - or use leverage to further erode protections and safety nets with the now "sovereign" UK. Nobody who should suffer, will. However, whether the middle class will have learnt the right, humbling lessons from this is another matter - but again won't hold it against them if they double down on Exceptionalism as panacea.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,161 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I've seen the point made in recent days that a 50-50 advisory referendum result should never have allowed one side to effectively hijack the country and sent it off on a disastrous / catastrophic route without the permission of the other (they were effectively banished to the wilderness).

    I believe the figures show that only 27% of all adults in the UK voted for the far right / xenophobic project known as 'Brexit'. What could possibly go wrong with this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,863 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    holy moley :

    This is just astonishing. Is it Johnson getting rid of a political opponent ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Hardly.

    If she gets a pragmatic deal on sectoral trade across the line, she will both eclipse him and replace him.

    Interesting though that she is a remainer at heart. Although its not really about impressing her own ERG party mates now, its about getting deals through parliament with opposition support and sidelining the extremists on both sides of the isle.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Merging Brexit into foreign affairs kind of makes sense.

    Having a separate Brexit minister to negotiate with the EU suggests that Brexit isn't done, rather than this just being usual foreign affairs a country engages in with it's neighbours.

    Edit: it also avoids a reshuffle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,298 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Liz Truss ability to fail upwards is astounding.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,334 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    You know how EU will get a excellent trade deal; they will offer her a cheese quota. She will accept anything for that...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,051 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Tories do love cheese and wine at Christmas time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,688 ✭✭✭storker


    More like handing the EU an early Christmas present. Reports of gunfire in Brussels this evening turned out to be the popping of champagne corks...



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