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United Ireland Poll - please vote

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So how do you propose asking people who will campaign against it (understandably so) to agree on a new flag or anthem or other constitutional provisions?

    Or is this another instance of blanch thinking he has found a Unionist veto - we won't negotiate a new F&A etc therefore we stop the process.

    I'm all eyes to read your proposal on this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    As I said, those things will have to be set out in advance by those advocating for a YES vote. In fact, I remain astonished that the one party that is calling for a border poll hasn't even begun to set out any ideas for an inclusive island. I use the word inclusive island, because even the name of the State should be up for discussion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There is a way in which it could be done.

    Rather than the SoS calling a definitive border poll under the GFA, they could call an indicative poll, which if passed, would allow for discussions on a future relationship and a future united Ireland, to then be put to the electorate on both sides of the border. The potential need for two polls is something that has been discussed by academics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This makes no sense, and has nothing to do with the points that I raised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I set out how I thought it could be done.

    We commit to a new country from the outset. All constitutional issues to be settled by majority like they are in any democracy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And all Unionists have to do is say they won't take part...like now.

    You got your veto.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is anathema to the GFA, where the North is given a veto on future arrangements. It is a pipedream of yours but no SoS will call a border poll in such circumstances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    It absolutely addresses your post. Would you support a situation were a UI only needed 35%, for maturity like?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    An indicative poll first?

    Certainly the British can hold whatever referendum they want to. But i would be doubtful of an indicate poll. Any poll on the constitutional status of NI is going to be divisive so why make people go through that twice? Sounds like bad policy and what you'll likely get is a high turnout for poll #1 and a low turnout for poll #2.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Surely with an indicative poll you would get more people to vote YES on the basis that it would do no harm to see what a united Ireland is about before we get a second vote on it.

    As I said, this is something that academics have begin talking about. However, the fact that such discussion is really only occurring among academics at this point shows how far away such a poll is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    The NI statelet was founded with that very 50% +1 vote in mind, along sectarian lines. If it was good enough to create the statelet, it's good enough to dissolve it.

    What you are doing, is trying to give unionists a veto by making their vote count more than UI votes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Subverting the fundamentals of democracy then calling others exclusionary.



  • Posts: 19,174 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Why the dig at the end? This is typical of posters here, I ask a question and get abused as an answer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You keep forgetting what the GFA says.

    "(ii) recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland; "

    There must be a separate vote in the North on the arrangements to apply to a united Ireland. You can't have a single all-island vote on arrangements. In the future, it is quite possible that in order to hold to the provisions of the GFA, constitutional change on this island will require separate votes, North and South, before they are confirmed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    I think everybody already knows that there will be a UI referendum in NI, and also one in RoI. Though i am not sure sure there is a constitutional imperative for a referendum in RoI since UI is already assumed as a national aspiration.

    By the way, here are your academics and they say:


    If a poll were held and the result was as close as the Brexit one, could unification happen?

    Yes, says UCL. “A referendum should be called if a vote for unification appears likely, even if by a slender margin.”

    “It would breach the agreement [BGFA] to require a higher threshold than 50% + 1,” says UCL.


    Who has the power to call a border poll?

    The Belfast Good Friday agreement (BGFA) of 1998 gives the Northern Ireland secretary discretion to call a referendum at any point. However he is legally obliged to call one if there is a majority in Northern Ireland in favour of unification.

    A poll should be called “if at any time it appears likely to him [sic] that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.

    Is this prosecutable? Yes, says Alan Renwick, the deputy director of UCL’s Constitution Unit and one of the lead authors in the working group’s report.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/03/how-could-a-vote-on-the-unification-of-ireland-play-out


    So over to you Blanch, that's british academics citing that requiring thresold more than 50% +1 is a breach of the GFA. Why are you advocating breaching the GFA?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You see Francie, you haven't thought any of this through, have you? Your idea of a united Ireland seems to be limited to dancing at the crossroads with the mermaids while the unicorns frolic in the fields generating wealth for the land of milk and honey.

    The protection of the rights of the unionists will be vitally important in a united Ireland, and one of the ways to do that is to give, in accordance with the GFA, a veto to Northern Ireland on future constitutional change. Think about it from more than one side and you will see the different forms and ways that will be needed in a future united Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This is the type of tit for tat sectarian head-counting that is the preserve of exclusionary nationalists on both sides.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You need to go back and read my post. Where exactly in it did I advocate breaching the GFA? Please quote the relevant part of my post and the relevant part of the GFA.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    You literally just did:

    The protection of the rights of the unionists will be vitally important in a united Ireland, and one of the ways to do that is to give, in accordance with the GFA, a veto to Northern Ireland on future constitutional change. Think about it from more than one side and you will see the different forms and ways that will be needed in a future united Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Nothing in the GFA prevents a future united Ireland having constitutional change determined by separate votes North and South.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    We know that. That's not the issue here at all.

    They are 2 different legal jurisdictions and require their unique processes to be followed.

    The real issue is your assertion blanch, that a referendum would require more than 50% +1 vote in NI to change it's constitutional status. That is very much against the GFA and democratic norms.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    But i wonder if legal scholars have opined whether a referendum on a UI is actually required in the Republic?

    If we are voting to dissolve the Republic then certainly it would be.

    But if a UI is simply extending RoI over NI? I would say that a referendum probably isn't required at all as Article 3 seems to make it a moot point.

    If we are changing the Flag, then yes. So maybe that's what the referendum here will be. Pick your new Flag.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Never said that. Please point to me saying that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This is utterly bizarre and equally hilarious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Naive thinking.

    A united Ireland will require an international Treaty with the UK and I cannot see any form that Treaty might take that would not require a referendum.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Blanch you're really digging yourself a hole here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Not a bit. You yourself have said that in the event of a united Ireland we would be starting from scratch, so there is nothing in anything that you have posted on the issue that would prevent this. It gives certainty to the people of Northern Ireland that they won't be just subsumed and become forgotten.

    Look at the reality Francie of the North. Unionism is in a minority and is declining. Nationalism is in a minority and is declining. A third minority, those who call themselves Northern Irish is a growing minority. Whoever appeals to that group in the middle will win a border poll. That group will want to preserve a Northern Irish identity. That can be done through the existing status quo, through increased devolution within the UK, through an independent Northern Ireland or through a separate Northern Irish identity within a united Ireland (there are other possibilities too including increased joint sovereignty over the North). That is where you exclusionary nationalists need to focus your thinking and reform your outdated concepts. Retaining indefinitely the Northern Ireland veto on constitutional change contained in the GFA is one way of doing so.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,350 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There is no NI veto on the constitutional arrangement to be made in a UI.

    There is a NI veto on whether there is a UI or not.

    That is what the GFA says and the rest of what you are saying is just more exclusionary fantasy talk.

    Nobody is looking for an independent NI except yourself and that is only a pathetic last ditch effort to exclude those who want a UI.



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