Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

I'd say more realistic than negative. Unless you think Ireland is in a unique position where most of Europe is increasing in cases/hospitalization coming into winter and we will defy those odds and instead of maybe having the same number in hospital next week, we'll see another drop?

It's possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

7 day admissions are at 44, same as 3 weeks ago. It's holding steady. Cases flat also (there was a significant drop in case numbers one day due to the storm) but appears stable, same for positivity rate.

So with everything appearing stable, do you see next week staying stable, dropping or increasing?

Being realistic is not the same as being negative.

I'm not moving goalposts. There's 3 factors affecting hospital numbers (4 if you include deaths):

Admissions/Hospital cases and discharges.

Admissions and Hospital cases have been steady for 3 weeks, Discharges seemed to have slowed down.

Just because we had a difference of 100 in hospital in a week, doesn't mean we'll have the same week after week.

It dropped 106 in a week, then 58 then 10.... you hardly think it's going to drop 100 next week?

...

Heard another case over the weekend (friend of a friend) of someone who got tested as a close contact; positive result while all other close contacts tested negative and his family too. He went for another test the next day, negative.

This happens often enough that it suggests a proportion of our daily cases are people who've been infected in the last 9 months but were unaware of it.

On top of that, when you couple in the fact that a quarter of daily cases are under 12 (who have a very low hospitalisation rate), all goes towards explaining the general unpredictability of the hospital numbers, but also the reason why we can have a high case load and dropping hospital numbers.

The good new is that the booster programme is paying off serious dividends. Under-44s make up 64% of all of the cases but only 38% of those in hospital.

So the only way is down on this one. The case numbers in the booster cohorts are continuously dropping, which means hospital numbers can only drop.

There will be a lot of value in boosters for the 35+ age group due to their high case load, but the 45+ group will have the largest impact. At this point boosters need to be the only game in town. New restrictions are completely pointless.

I know what you mean to a point, but its also about demonstrating leadership and encouraging buy-in from the public.

A lot of people really suffered through this, and No. 10 have a Christmas Quiz and piss up is pretty bad. Do as a I say, not as I do.

By the same token, healthcare professionals and frontline workers up and down the country could have had Christmas parties.

Work colleague tested positive twice on antigen tests last week, went for a pcr and that came back negative.. he said he had a bad cold, and Is double jabbed.

im all for antigen tests but that’s a strange one.

And when the boosters inevitably wane? What's your suggestion? More boosters?

Not really. This is generally how variants take over. Cases are not doubling every two days. The number of infections that Omicron accounts for is, but the increase in case numbers is quite linear.

In South Africa the case numbers have gone insane because of their low vaccine rates.

Crucially, in the UK and in South Africa, hospital numbers are remaining flat and deaths are flat or dropping. In South Africa, cases have been climbing off the charts since 22nd November. That's a full 23 days. There was a small jump in deaths about a week later, but they've been declining since.

Still too early to call for certain, but Omicron is definitely shaping up to be highly infectious and not very dangerous at all. It would be quite an amazing Xmas present to us all.

Edit: https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1470272474474496002?s=20

Another 10 days of data will tell us for certain, but the graph definitely gives a good reason for cautious optimism.

Do you be laughing to yourself when you type this stuff?

What in the name of jeasus difference will vaccination of 5-11 year olds make?

Think about the cohort who suffers severe disease

Delta literally poses no risk to kids and Omicron on the current information is milder than Delta, so why exactly would you vaccinate kids.

People who need vaccines and boosters for protection will have them, if the vaccines work then we don't need to vaccinate kids who don't need them to protect people who the vaccine is supposed to be protecting.

We should be sending these vaccines to poorer counties who need the supply of vaccines far more than kids in Ireland.

What is the current guidelines around antigen tests.

My sister had a cough last week and took an antigen test on Friday which was positive.

Partner and kid were negative.

They all took two tests Saturday, Sunday and this morning and all of them were negative.

Sister works in retail and the boss is mentioning how they need her back and asked her to go back tomorrow if she has another negative test.

Her partner is working later today and he has had no symptoms and has had all negative tests.

Is he allowed back to work?

I am lucky personally to be working from home and not to have this dilemma but it must be hard.

So giving the vaccine to children is not to protect them but to protect others.

It is the job of adults to protect kids, not for kids to protect adults.

What happens if after 3 months the kids need a booster and so on till god knows when.

If the vaccines work we don't need to waste them on kids who don't need them.

The guidelines around antigen tests are that they shouldn't be used when you have symptoms. And if you do get a positive antigens test, you must/should get it confirmed with a PCR test.

If she wants to follow the rules to the letter, she should go into isolation, book a PCR test and the unvaccinated members of her household should restrict their movements until the results come back.

Like you say, in practical terms it's all very difficult. There's a bit of loophole where if you have a positive PCR test you are legally obliged to quarantine and provide details of your contacts. If you have a positive antigen you do not legally have to do anything, but people are trusted to make the right call.

If she still has symptoms, she should definitely book a PCR test.

The transmission bit has been gone over a number of times here. There is a reduction in transmission associated with vaccination. It is not absolute and it drops off quite substantially, but it is there.

You say you're not anti-vax, but parrot anti-vax arguments like "pandemic vaccine" and "long-term effects" like you know what you're talking about. These vaccines are at this point amongst the most robustly studied and understood vaccines to have ever existed.