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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....are you sure of that? theres plenty of people starting to move their money towards alternatives in ireland, yes some will indeed invest their money in traditional ways, but i suspect many younger people are moving towards these alternatives, its why i think an increase in use of methods such as negative rates would ultimately fail, as i suspect they already are

    hard to tell, but could be peas in a pod, both may have occurred together, but now both are creating a positive feedback towards each other, accelerating dysfunction in both



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,683 ✭✭✭hometruths


    hard to tell, but could be peas in a pod, both may have occurred together, but now both are creating a positive feedback towards each other, accelerating dysfunction in both

    I agree they are now compounding each other, but in my opinion, of all the problems, the softly softly no repo policy is the single biggest cause of the current problems in the housing market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i somewhat disagree there, the whole thing is a mess, and there doesnt seem to be any real solutions to any of it, we clearly need to ramp up supply, and very quickly, but we dont even know how to do that, so....

    again, since theres a serious lack of supply, and no true functioning alternatives, particularly in the public domain, we re simply stuck....

    but having functioning repo processes is also critical to have, as dysfunction triggers dysfunctions in financial markets



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,907 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    That's part of a hotel being converted. Not privately held holiday houses.

    You still haven't explained how you intend to return privately held holiday houses to the market.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,683 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It's not part of the hotel. The hotel objected to the conversion!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,907 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Its purpose built rental accommodation on a hotel site. That the hotel owners wanted them kept as that doesn't make it not part of a hotel!

    Now, how do you propose to return privately held holiday homes to the market? If you haven't got a workable proposal for this, its absolutely pointless trying to pretend that they can be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    If inflation is running at 5% for a few years then houses prices will rise further.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,683 ✭✭✭hometruths


    purpose built holiday rental accommodation that has applied for, and been granted, change of use, and will now become full time residential accommodation. Not a difficult scenario to understand.

    not sure how this example is somehow the exception that proves the rule every single holiday home in the country must be excluded from any calculation of potential residential housing supply!

    i have no proposal on how to return holidays homes to the market, nor am I trying to pretend anything.

    My only point is that it is ridiculous to say all 40,000 holidays homes must be excluded from any calculation of potential future housing supply.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Is this not what has been happening with Joe Soap not earning anything with deposits in the bank so they start buying shares and crypto. This in turn pushes prices higher which attracts more Joe Soaps as they see there friends making money..... Add on top funds pushing prices higher and taking profit regularly so that even if the market crashes they don't loose out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    Of that 60% how many have children and/or grandchildren who either can't afford to buy at all or have to move a long way away to buy?

    I don't know any figures on it but it's a lot of people imo, and many will turn their back on FF/FG who obviously have no solutions.

    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Those that own holiday homes may choose to live their and sell their current primary residence.

    Many were picked up for a pittance during the crash (on my side of the island at least)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,907 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    One event doesn't prove or disprove anything.

    Trying to put holiday home stock down as potential primary residence supply is just trying to fudge numbers. Its just as much - and as little - potential housing as every single field, farm and existing commercial building is potential housing. So not valid to count.

    Otherwise you could just make up numbers for potential new builds, potential renovations of derelict and so on.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,683 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Trying to put holiday home stock down as potential primary residence supply is just trying to fudge numbers. Its just as much - and as little - potential housing as every single field, farm and existing commercial building is potential housing. So not valid to count.

    Not talking about all holiday home stock, clearly some of it - chalets in wexford for example are not suitable. But to disregard the entire 40,000 properties as unsuitable for primary residences in insane. Some of them were primary residences before they were holiday homes!

    The designation of holiday home as per the count, is simply what the owner does with it, not some classification that means it cannot be a PPR. To suggest otherwise is total nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,907 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I've never said they cannot be a PPR. But they aren't going to be. They are no more a potential PPR than an empty field is.


    Unless you propose a carrot and/or stick to encourage their sale and prevent the purchase just being for further holiday use



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,096 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    My HH was never a PPR and it's in too remote and odd a location to make it a likely candidate as one. Built in 1893, metre thick stone walls, no heating other than open fireplaces that do SFA. The likely cost to turn it into something year round habitable and suitable is probably about the same as to build a modern home from scratch. So that's one off the list.

    Holiday homes are often in places which are not ideal as a PPR in modern times.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,683 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Holiday homes are often in places which are not ideal as a PPR in modern times.

    For sure, and what is equally true is that holiday homes are often in places that are ideal as a PPR in modern times.

    It is one of the reasons why you hear complaints that locals are priced out of a market because rich folk are buying up the houses to use as holiday homes.

    And as sure as night follows day a proportion of those 40k properties that are currently categorised as holiday homes, will at some point in the future become PPRs.

    And just as sure, some houses that are currently PPRs will at some point in the future become holiday homes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,096 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Have you any evidence that this Irish local needs cráp that has been in place for a good while now, has made housing better available and more affordable for locals?

    I no longer believe this one, as the same old complaints are still being made, long after measures were taken to keep f'rners out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,067 ✭✭✭Murph85


    These "middle class" voters that SF are attracting, are going to be poverty cases come the next election, with inflation etc. Unless you have the bank of mum and dad to bail you out! I can actually see them having enough to have a majority. FFG cant bring themselves to self harm and do anything about the rip off prices they crave...

    The housing situation is going to get a lot worse, its going to totally boil over and explode over the next few years, that is for sure... They are going to have to start doing things non of the parties currently want to do, provide cheaper to construct homes and higher density. The planning system is a farce. This does benefit SF currently, they are running with the hares and chasing with the hounds. If they get a majority, what will their excuse be, to not make inroads into the crisis, and fairly quickly too...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    To be fair he is saying to take profits which I agree with. Just look at what the rich guys are doing; all selling down billions in equities the last 12 months.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    You'd probably be surprised. The amount of money in the country is staggering.

    My parents have no money but my uncles and aunts all have lots of money and they gave it to their kids towards a house.

    If you're 50 and you have your mortgage paid off or almost, you're earning 2021 wages. Imagine a union electrician on 50k married to a nurse with 25 years experience on 50k.

    That's over 70k net into the household in a year with basically 0 mortgage. Even if you spent 250 a week on expenses, that's 12k a year. About 60k left over per year for a fancy car or giving to kids.

    The polls largely show homeowners are still voting for FF/FG. Even look at the by election in DBS. Ivana Bacik, who's basically FG got in from a lot of FG voters. If all the elders were worried about their kids affording housing, they'd have voted for SF, which they didn't.

    Have a look at the age breakdown in the 2020 election.

    35-49: FF/FG take 43% of the vote.

    50-64: FF/FG take 45%

    Even the 25-34 age group, FF/FG have a bigger vote than SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,329 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    People from 40 years of age on know there is no such thing as a free lunch. The only way SF can fullfil all there promises is to raise taxes. It the middle of the road couple that will end up paying that.

    The real wealthy will go into tax exile. Older people with very good pensions will move to Portugal. If you over tax business it will shut down and shrink.

    The idea of a super tax seem good on paper but many businesses will avoid it by limiting drawdowns.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The person we purchased our home from used the proceeds of the sale to move to a facility that allowed for independent living while having care on call when needed. An excellent service at a reasonable cost at the time

    Since that person moved in, the facility has been sold, services have been cut heavily and fees have ballooned.

    This is a person that had a good job/career helped develop many more high paying tax units through his children also been successful

    Don't be under any illusion that FF/FG boom bust policies are of any benefit to our citizens. Given our healthcare/housing and pensions time bomb. It's the older population that should be most concerned of the direction this country is taking. They may not know it but taxpayers are funding a system that will destroy them and enrich vested interests that dodge tax at every opportunity

    Be prepared for complete stripping of your assets to fund a not fit for purpose health system



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    So FF/FG in power for another 100 years. How bleak.

    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Villa05


    A bit of vote buying to add fuel for the fire and sauce for the investment funds

    This time its different indeed




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The developer view from glenveagh, some interesting points.

    Note the close alignment between what glenveagh view as positive and Fianna Fail policy. The Galway tent has gone underground

    This time it's different, indeed





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Following on from newstalks debate that Ireland has become antibusiness

    It appears that their sister station has picked up the lantern with their busines reporter Ian Guider singing the praises of investment funds and co living units in both the report linked below but also a debate later in the week plus an article on the Sunday Business post

    It's an interesting development as the media were dead against these investment funds initially, even christening the term cuckoo funds. I'm assuming that they'd be unable to fill their lucrative property pages when investment funds become the dominant buyer. Winder what's feeding this sudden change of view


    Mmmh Media capture. This time it's different indeed




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,300 ✭✭✭enricoh


    a slump in plannings being sought - is it builders turning off the taps to keep housing scarce n pricey or is it uneconomic to build at the mo ?https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40763604.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    So there will be a choice between destroying savings or crippling interest rates. The young v the old.

    I wonder how long it'll take for China contagion to hit Ireland....



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Commencements increased this year, so to answer your question, I would say neither one or other.



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