Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Sinn Féin now the leading party of middle class Ireland

Polls are polls but a consistent trend is starting to form, why are the middle classes turning their back on FF/FG?

DBS election.

One other observation is in relation to FG support among farmers which is its strongest voter base. FG being a party for landowners is clearly the takeaway and again with 80%+ of those under 34 not owning land in the 2016 census, FG would need to fundamentally change its identity to stop the rot

FG made a lot of promises to me on the disgusting amount of tax I pay. None of those promises have been kept.

Are we extending out the time of the expected crash again :)

I see no relevance in that link or any evidence to support your claim. Evergrande may well cause a sentiment crash, in all asset classes, but if it does, I doubt it will be any more long lived than the early 2020 Covid panic crash I took advantage of. As Clinton said, 'It's the economy, stupid' or words to that effect. Currently the US is at full employment with well over a million job openings unfilled.

If I were in China holding crypto, Evergrande would be of low concern compared to the Central bank making crypto <> fiat dealings illegal.

The link goes from Evergrande being a risk of the property market in China collapsing which would trigger wider economic woes in China as the property sector contributes a large part to GDP in China. Tether has extended billions in loans to Chinese companies and claims its stablecoins are backed by US dollars, with its stablecoins being traded for bitcoin far more than fiat currency is traded for bitcoin. So a Chinese economic crises would hit Tether which would have knock on effects for bitcoin and the wider crypto industry due to bitcoins status within the industry. Therefore anyone anywhere with some tin in crypto would be exposed to this Evergrande crisis.

I have a couple of points on parts of your post;

• Glossing over the immigrants point; if you look at our projected population growth, it is dominated by immigration resulting in the population increasing. What this translates to is firstly that it is an assumption at this stage that our immigration will remain high. If it doesn't then I think today's valuations could have problems sustaining themselves in the future. Another translation from this projection is that immigrants are typically not home buyers and will be renters - so big question is whether, when comparing today's rents to salaries, these rents are sustainable (let alone further increases in rents). The last point on that is on the political engagement by immigrants; if there is a link between their political engagement and those voting for higher house prices well then it is worth raising the possibility that we see more immigrant engagement with our political process and (noting they are typically renters and have no experience with SF's past) I think they would be likely to vote for policies aiming to view the housing market as something that is broken and needs fixing.
• On the young people buying aspect; the CSO from 2016 indicated that approximately 80% of those 25-34 were renters. I'm not questioning your anecdotal experience but just highlighting the bigger picture and in that context it is something worth noting that renters would actively welcome their rent crashing whereas homeowners would welcome their house price increasing. It is such a polarisation that, should the CSO data be relatively accurate, is likely to continue to increase rather than decrease.

Ahh, it all becomes clearer now - you are parroting Cramer. It might have been easier to just link to him. There's a lot of ifs in that, like the Chinese government allowing the Evergrande unwind contagion to damage a swathe of Chinese companies. I doubt they will let that happen. The Chinese goverment's aim is to burn the foreign debt holders, not their own.

Delete

There's room left to run - sky's the limit!

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/dublin-house-prices-to-soar-by-25-per-cent-council-study-finds-99d58790

Dublin City Council commissioned a report recently, published in the media the last few days, showing that there is potential for growth in median house prices of 25% over the next 7 years in Dublin.

"No one saw it coming", IT quoting Owen Keegan in 2024, when confronted with the controversy of the government being on the hook for another 15/20 years for leases that are 130% of what are then current market rents.

"Our reports show that institutional investors are the only source of new housing in Ireland's major cities during 2024, we cannot continue to vilify international investors with emotive language and lynch pieces of political pantomine", Pat Farrell writing in the IT, pre-Budget 2025.

"It wasn't just Ireland that suffered from the pandemic fallout", Leo Varadker shoots back in tetchy exchanges with Mary Lou McDonald in Dail confrontation, October 2024.

"FDI got us out of the 08 crash and we need to go back to the capital markets to bail out the government once again", Pascal Donohue explains as he introduces new tax reforms for foreign capital into the Irish economy as part of his "last chance saloon for FF and FG" with his 2025 Budget.