On what basis? Do you have a mathematical argument to back that up?
It's my opinion, you are free to take it or leave it I don't particularly care which.
Sample size definitely not an issue with the poll.
LOL i doubt many would actually believe that you can ask just 663 ppl in NI about a UI poll, and the result would only have a margin of error of 1%.
There is a glaringly obvious flaw in all UI polls.
We've gone through the figures on this in another thread. If we assume the rest of the polling variables were ok (which we should since the question raised was purely about the size), a sample size of 1004 is absolutely fine from a confidence interval perspective. At a population of 1.8M, a sample size of 1004 gives a 3% margin of error, which for the purposes discussed is perfectly acceptable. Increasing the sample size beyond that point would be impractical for pretty minimal benefit.
The issue with that particular poll is the question; I don't think it will come as a surprise that I favour Irish Unification.....yet I would respond No to the question asked in that poll. I'm actually surprised that such a high number of people would answer Yes to that question as phrased. Question design for surveying is an art, and asking loaded questions can greatly manipulate outcomes, whether intentional or not.
You're probably right but that is the reality.
What would that be?
It isn't, a sample size of 663 would have a margin of error of around 4%, not the 1% that poster suggests.
Was it you and I who hashed this out before, JH?
Much as I thought.
There is an awful lot of escapism when it comes to these polls. Support for a united Ireland has never managed to get above 40% or so in a poll in Northern Ireland, no matter which way the question was asked and no matter the sample size (There may be a poll of An Phoblacht readers that says different).
Once again, am I arguing for a UI? Amazing how you seem to think a similar figure 20% wishing to stay within the UK was enough to justify the creation of Northern Ireland 100 years ago.
There is one key difference that also needs to be remembered regards the Basque Country, it is a much more homogenised society than NI. I think around 75% of the population identify as Basque compared to less than 50% who identify as Irish in NI. Taking that into consideration shows just how little interest there is in a Independent Basque State currently. The figure had been much higher at one point, but they have been granted so much autonomy within Spain, they seem more than happy with their lot now.
A certain level of autonomy for NI within Ireland would be a good solution, but I am pretty sure that DUP Unionists would not buy into that either. Ireland, Cataluyna, Basque Country were all countries/kingdoms/duchys that got absorbed/colonised by larger States who at times have persecuted those peoples based on religion/culture etc, so naturally enough they have sought their own freedoms based on those reasons.
NI on the other hand was created on little more than Unionists fears they would be persecuted in a Democratic Ireland and British fears of bad PR in relation to how a former Colony breaking away would look to other perspective rebels within their Empire.
It was, you work in this area or similar if I remember correctly. I do a bit of MiniTab but that's about the height of it.
The link is just to show the sample size is appropriate.
The poll should only be of An Phoblacht readers.
It is probable that the Basque country is a more mature society able to recognise the plurality of identity and that territory is not necessary to confirm identity.
Yes, maybe if the Unionists had not spent their time gerrymandering, discriminating against Catholics, celebrating their superiority over Catholics on an annual basis and denying cultural rights to the minority. NI might have worked.
Another major difference is Spain is desperate to hang onto the Basque Country and Cataluyna, the two economic powerhouse regions of Spain. Compare that to Britain, who would probably be only to happy to get shot of NI if they didn't rely on their politicians from time to time.
The absence of a plan from the proposers of a UI, the Irish government.
Polls in Scotland went from the low 30%'s to parity and beyond after the publication of the White Paper.
Present a plan then we'll talk polls.
We need the NIP fully implemented to wind-up unionists so they pester the British government to trigger Article 16. In that event we need as hard a border as is possible to inconvenience as many people and businesses north and south as possible. This will tank the NI economy, that and the inconvenience to people will drive a UI. Currently the access to both the UK and EU markets is the saving grace of the NI statelet, it's the softly softly option that may be keeping the peace, but it's not particularly advancing a UI.
The demonym for a person from Britain is British. The demonym for a person from the British isles is a British Islander. Ireland is not Britain... different island , and therfore Irish people are not British tho you may argue we could be considered British Islanders. Where have you ever herd the term British Islander used? Even when Ireland was in the UK we were still refereed to as Irish and not British. Look up anything about the great famine. Show me any historical literature where it says 1.5 million British or British islanders people starved to death. You wont find it, It will always say Irish.
I was in Belfast recently. It was during the week. I visited a number of shopping centres in the suburbs, outside the city centre. Some were close to what looked like social housing estates.
Once thing struck me is the amount of people who looked like they were on welfare, lots of single mothers, young lads of working age in their tracksuits hanging about, etc. This was mid week when people are at work, so one can assume the majority I observed don't work. And I only saw a small % of state dependent people, in only one small section of the north.
It made me think, if we have a united Ireland, we inherit all these state dependent people. We have enough people in the 26 counties who don't want to work and will never work (thats another topic, we dont need to discuss here again). Let's be honest, forget the romantic notions of a united Ireland, do really we want to inherit thousands of welfare dependent people, many (not all I may add), who will never add value to our economy or society ?
I think blanch and partitionists think people will get annoyed when they use the archaic British Isles stuff, but it just makes them sound like a tearful John Bruton.
I'm happy enough that the vast majority of the world see this island and those born on it as Irish howsoever and whatsoever they identify as.
I think SF are afraid to put a plan out there. The Hubner Report blew up in their faces already.
Problem with the logistics of a UI is any proposal that favours unification in NI will have the opposite effect in the Republic. And the numbers aren't great in the Republic either. 40% if taxes increase i think.
It's not up to SF, unless they are in government. A political party will not be the proposers, it will be proposed by the Irish government.
They could propose one if they wanted just like Alternative Budgets. Not that hard to do. All data readily available and scenarios could be mapped out depending on what levels of debt would carry over, who would pay for pensions etc
The Hubner Report probably means we won't see one. Once bitten and all that.
You are obsessed with SF.
The Irish government will be the proposers.
Until then all else, you waffling and me waffling, SF waffling, partitionists objecting, Unionists objecting with them is just fluff and noise.
Not directly any more and certainly a bit rusty, but enough of a background to at least discuss the fundamentals (and not be in awe of how sample sizes work!).
I wasn't actually disagreeing with your core point....more using your post as a bouncing post to disagree with the post you were replying to; the poster was incredulous that a sample size of 663 would give a margin of error of 1%, I just wanted to point out that with an NI population of 1.8M, well one would be right to be incredulous at someone suggesting a margin of error of 1%; the correct margin would be 4%, a pretty substantial difference!
I'm probably dragging the thread somewhat off topic, so I'll move on!
Can't see those who want a UI because of all the shinners in your head? FF want a UI as does Kenny, Coveney and criminal suspect Varadkar.
When the major parties and smaller ones like FG want a UI, its not so much unicorns and rainbows after all.
I assumed the poster just plugged the numbers in and got that, I wouldn't instinctively know the answer.
Is that what the calculator predicts for those numbers?
Biggest party both in the Republic and NI and MLD just said it's 5 to 10 years away and this is the United Ireland thread. Hard to leave SF out of it.
SF waffle on a UI is very vague on the financial aspects. After the Hubner report, hardly surprising.
How do you convince the majority in NI that you can invest in NI and at the same time convince those in the Republic they won't have to pay extra taxes for it?
Do you seriously think that an Irish government is going to propose a UI were we all pay prohibitive taxes?
It will be the job of partitionists and detractors to do that, and good luck to them having to run a negative campaign from the get go. The proposers will be focusing on the positives.
What have political parties in the South got to do in any way with an opinion poll in the North that only shows 34% want a united Ireland?