Cattle trade prediction for winter 2022

Overall herd size and kill will be a main factor for priceing , bass reeves will be along soon with the figures.

Down side, calf issue, national herd continuing to grow.

Up side. Fertilizer will be dear, affect thrive, many global beef producers are still dropping numbers and dealing with drought. Key exporters like the US and Brazil will see their feedlots having steep increases in costs as they have to buy in Maize.

Globally there is strong reason to think food scarcity is going to be a very serious global issue for the next few years. Potentially as defining as the Covid pandemic.

Seems obvious but we go through Monopoly processors selling to Monopoly retailers.

I'm thinking prices will be the same next December.

That's for beef, not sure how the mart will be affected.

This year had 120k less cattle in the system, that is approx 3-4 weeks kill nationally. This year had Beam thrown into the mix and interrupted the traditional supply profile to the factories.

Personally, I see next year being interesting. Firstly there was reduced shipping of calves in the spring of 2020, mainly due to covid and the collapse to the veal market that was linked to the closing of hospitality.

The price of fertiliser first is going to create 2 major issues, grass and followed later on by grain price. Worldwide grain prices are ok the up, on the back of fertiliser, almost pricing it into grain,

The spring market for grass cattle will be all over the shop, most folks will reduce stocking rates and has the potential to reduce the price of grass cattle.

Worldwide issue with feedlots reducing the amount of stock they are carrying will be linked to grain price and the effects of the new variant. Reducing herd sizes will have a knock on effect of extra culls being killed and potentially pressure on beef price.

My crystal ball is thinking, potential for good base prices for the year,But a few hiccups along the way, If worldwide lockdowns can be avoided. Feedlots will have be under pressure from the summer on, financially, trying to gather feed and working on wafer thin margins.

In Ireland the pinch points will be in may as the feedlots are emptied to pinch price back before the start of grass cattle. Again in August as we start the usual 30mths race.

At present any decent rations are 300+/ ton I imagine. They are supposed to go another 30-40 / ton early in the new year.

Unless beef prices start to seriously climb finishers will struggle to make money. A predicted to me a month back that the finished cattle price will be strong next year, but store and young cattle prices will be very poor. The farmers that can finish cattle and keep costs under control should do ok

For the first time Irish prices may not be decided by Irish numbers but influenced by demand for product. I expect to see 5/ kg exceeded for AA and maybe other cattle. But fertlizer will eat into that price.

I am at about 135kgsN/ HA. If I cannot cut that Inc p&k my fertlizer bill will be around 350/HA. Lady year fertlizer cost less than 50/ head next year I be looking at 150/ head.

Looks like I should not have bought those LMx two weeks ago

At this moment, there is no ban on calves being exported. Expect to see them exported as normal for Spring '22

We are about a euro/ kg behind the UK price that is 350 euro on a 350 kg carcase. That kind of gap leaves the gate wide open for shippers. As no calving data is available on heifers or young cows it also leaves room around the edge. Finally you have non QA or overage cattle which are 20-30 c/ kg behind the general Irish market

On the Continental market France and Germany have moved ahead to about 60-70c/ kg ahead of us. But more importantly the Netherlands and Poland are well ahead of the Irish price so there is no cheap beef available. It leaves Irish beef grossly underpriced. However unless exporters start paying a good price in Marts processor's will not push price on

If it happens it will be fir finished cattle Jjam. There is enough of a gap at present to justify it for finished or forward stored if there is a market. It is smaller abbatoirs or independent processor's supplying the wholesale trade.