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Cattle trade prediction for winter 2022

  • 03-12-2021 8:55am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ n1st


    With the known changes e.g. fertilizer price increases, feed price increases, glas 2023 etc.

    What are the predictions for beef factory and store prices in October, November 2022, up or down from 2021?

    Are there any other factors that are known now that might affect next year's trade?



Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,849 ✭✭✭ Jb1989


    Overall herd size and kill will be a main factor for priceing , bass reeves will be along soon with the figures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ n1st




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,808 ✭✭✭✭ Danzy


    Down side, calf issue, national herd continuing to grow.


    Up side. Fertilizer will be dear, affect thrive, many global beef producers are still dropping numbers and dealing with drought. Key exporters like the US and Brazil will see their feedlots having steep increases in costs as they have to buy in Maize.


    Globally there is strong reason to think food scarcity is going to be a very serious global issue for the next few years. Potentially as defining as the Covid pandemic.


    Seems obvious but we go through Monopoly processors selling to Monopoly retailers.


    I'm thinking prices will be the same next December.


    That's for beef, not sure how the mart will be affected.

    Post edited by Danzy on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ Jjameson


    There’s a sharp increase in 2020 birthday cattle however it has been an exceptionally good year for cattle thrive in my part of the country at least and I think there is an increased proportion of young cattle killed off grass or from a short housing period. I’m reasonably optimistic for the coming year for my few low input grazing finishing cattle.

    Have a few hangers on from this year I’m feeding on till January. Hoping for a good lift in price. They’ll need it!



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭ 893bet


    Suspect the opportunity to cull cows was taken also to refresh herds more here and there also. I think the price will be maintained fairly well as it should be. 360 was shocking.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 795 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    This year had 120k less cattle in the system, that is approx 3-4 weeks kill nationally. This year had Beam thrown into the mix and interrupted the traditional supply profile to the factories.

    Personally, I see next year being interesting. Firstly there was reduced shipping of calves in the spring of 2020, mainly due to covid and the collapse to the veal market that was linked to the closing of hospitality.

    The price of fertiliser first is going to create 2 major issues, grass and followed later on by grain price. Worldwide grain prices are ok the up, on the back of fertiliser, almost pricing it into grain,

    The spring market for grass cattle will be all over the shop, most folks will reduce stocking rates and has the potential to reduce the price of grass cattle.

    Worldwide issue with feedlots reducing the amount of stock they are carrying will be linked to grain price and the effects of the new variant. Reducing herd sizes will have a knock on effect of extra culls being killed and potentially pressure on beef price.

    My crystal ball is thinking, potential for good base prices for the year,But a few hiccups along the way, If worldwide lockdowns can be avoided. Feedlots will have be under pressure from the summer on, financially, trying to gather feed and working on wafer thin margins.

    In Ireland the pinch points will be in may as the feedlots are emptied to pinch price back before the start of grass cattle. Again in August as we start the usual 30mths race.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭ kk.man


    Fertilizer is the big one not only on price but also supply. If either of these goes as some predict it will be uneconomical to finish cattle in the usual numbers off grass.

    The extra cattle in the system will be interesting. Will the plain stock fall at the mart? Will they fall in price anyway because of fertilizer?

    The finished price is also unpredictable but with everything from farm inputs, transport, energy and wage demands it might not have scope to be down priced. The days of cheap food in western economies could be a thing of the past. Having said that it may not be a bonanza for the primary producers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭ Bass Reeves


    At present any decent rations are 300+/ ton I imagine. They are supposed to go another 30-40 / ton early in the new year.

    Unless beef prices start to seriously climb finishers will struggle to make money. A predicted to me a month back that the finished cattle price will be strong next year, but store and young cattle prices will be very poor. The farmers that can finish cattle and keep costs under control should do ok

    For the first time Irish prices may not be decided by Irish numbers but influenced by demand for product. I expect to see 5/ kg exceeded for AA and maybe other cattle. But fertlizer will eat into that price.

    I am at about 135kgsN/ HA. If I cannot cut that Inc p&k my fertlizer bill will be around 350/HA. Lady year fertlizer cost less than 50/ head next year I be looking at 150/ head.

    Looks like I should not have bought those LMx two weeks ago

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ n1st




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,293 ✭✭✭ alps


    At this moment, there is no ban on calves being exported. Expect to see them exported as normal for Spring '22



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭ Bass Reeves


    We are about a euro/ kg behind the UK price that is 350 euro on a 350 kg carcase. That kind of gap leaves the gate wide open for shippers. As no calving data is available on heifers or young cows it also leaves room around the edge. Finally you have non QA or overage cattle which are 20-30 c/ kg behind the general Irish market

    On the Continental market France and Germany have moved ahead to about 60-70c/ kg ahead of us. But more importantly the Netherlands and Poland are well ahead of the Irish price so there is no cheap beef available. It leaves Irish beef grossly underpriced. However unless exporters start paying a good price in Marts processor's will not push price on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭ Grueller


    A man that has exported to Italy in the past but didn't do it for a few years told me recently that he has sent a load lately and got word back the cattle and the price were perfect, we will take plenty.

    Legwax that posted here used sell this man a lot of weanlings and we all know what the quality of his cattle were👌 before he exited suckling. The more of those that go the better.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ Jjameson


    Who over there is going to buy and finish them?

    Our beloved irish processors dominate uk processing industry. They entangle the labelling on Irish bred, uk finished cattle in red tape on the pretext of uk retailers making the specs.

    These same retailers benefit from curtailing this trade.

    The live trade of forward,and fat Angus and Hereford cattle to Northern Ireland for direct slaughter or short term feeding is where fireworks will resume in a few weeks I predict. It was kicking off last year at this stage but local buyers are still in charge thus far in the south east.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭ Bass Reeves


    If it happens it will be fir finished cattle Jjam. There is enough of a gap at present to justify it for finished or forward stored if there is a market. It is smaller abbatoirs or independent processor's supplying the wholesale trade.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭ kk.man


    It's a pity independents in the UK don't offer to process Irish origin stock finished on UK farms. There is lots of them around Morrisons, farmer fresh etc. This meat could be sold as British. I thought it was a EU stipulation stopping live exports between the two countries?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ Jjameson


    Once they are in the cmms. The department are happy here and similarly in the uk. It’s the fabricated labelling problems with the large retailers tats the problem.

    I remember the madness of 2012. Wicklow cattle company was bringing in friesian calves from Romania, Germany and the Uk. A neighbour who is always looking for the next “big win” bought 60 red carded bulls. Despite advise to the contrary! Spring 14 they had to be lorried to the north. No processor would take them in time of plenty. He took an awful hit.

    €2.60 flat. I was on a base of €3.80 for steers at the time.



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