Cattle trade prediction for winter 2022

n1st

With the known changes e.g. fertilizer price increases, feed price increases, glas 2023 etc.

What are the predictions for beef factory and store prices in October, November 2022, up or down from 2021?

Are there any other factors that are known now that might affect next year's trade?

Jb1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058220972/cattle-trade-prediction-for-winter-2022

Overall herd size and kill will be a main factor for priceing , bass reeves will be along soon with the figures.

n1st

I presume live exports ban will have a big impact

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/mcconalogue-concerned-for-future-of-calf-exports/

Danzy

Down side, calf issue, national herd continuing to grow.

Up side. Fertilizer will be dear, affect thrive, many global beef producers are still dropping numbers and dealing with drought. Key exporters like the US and Brazil will see their feedlots having steep increases in costs as they have to buy in Maize.

Globally there is strong reason to think food scarcity is going to be a very serious global issue for the next few years. Potentially as defining as the Covid pandemic.

Seems obvious but we go through Monopoly processors selling to Monopoly retailers.

I'm thinking prices will be the same next December.

That's for beef, not sure how the mart will be affected.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118274186#Comment_118274186

Suspect the opportunity to cull cows was taken also to refresh herds more here and there also. I think the price will be maintained fairly well as it should be. 360 was shocking.

mr.stonewall

This year had 120k less cattle in the system, that is approx 3-4 weeks kill nationally. This year had Beam thrown into the mix and interrupted the traditional supply profile to the factories.

Personally, I see next year being interesting. Firstly there was reduced shipping of calves in the spring of 2020, mainly due to covid and the collapse to the veal market that was linked to the closing of hospitality.

The price of fertiliser first is going to create 2 major issues, grass and followed later on by grain price. Worldwide grain prices are ok the up, on the back of fertiliser, almost pricing it into grain,

The spring market for grass cattle will be all over the shop, most folks will reduce stocking rates and has the potential to reduce the price of grass cattle.

Worldwide issue with feedlots reducing the amount of stock they are carrying will be linked to grain price and the effects of the new variant. Reducing herd sizes will have a knock on effect of extra culls being killed and potentially pressure on beef price.

My crystal ball is thinking, potential for good base prices for the year,But a few hiccups along the way, If worldwide lockdowns can be avoided. Feedlots will have be under pressure from the summer on, financially, trying to gather feed and working on wafer thin margins.

In Ireland the pinch points will be in may as the feedlots are emptied to pinch price back before the start of grass cattle. Again in August as we start the usual 30mths race.

kk.man

Fertilizer is the big one not only on price but also supply. If either of these goes as some predict it will be uneconomical to finish cattle in the usual numbers off grass.

The extra cattle in the system will be interesting. Will the plain stock fall at the mart? Will they fall in price anyway because of fertilizer?

The finished price is also unpredictable but with everything from farm inputs, transport, energy and wage demands it might not have scope to be down priced. The days of cheap food in western economies could be a thing of the past. Having said that it may not be a bonanza for the primary producers.

Bass Reeves

At present any decent rations are 300+/ ton I imagine. They are supposed to go another 30-40 / ton early in the new year.

Unless beef prices start to seriously climb finishers will struggle to make money. A predicted to me a month back that the finished cattle price will be strong next year, but store and young cattle prices will be very poor. The farmers that can finish cattle and keep costs under control should do ok

For the first time Irish prices may not be decided by Irish numbers but influenced by demand for product. I expect to see 5/ kg exceeded for AA and maybe other cattle. But fertlizer will eat into that price.

I am at about 135kgsN/ HA. If I cannot cut that Inc p&k my fertlizer bill will be around 350/HA. Lady year fertlizer cost less than 50/ head next year I be looking at 150/ head.

Looks like I should not have bought those LMx two weeks ago

n1st

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/letter-to-the-editor-ban-on-animal-transport-is-groundbreaking/

Will this mean more calves, weanlings, lower prices?

alps

At this moment, there is no ban on calves being exported. Expect to see them exported as normal for Spring '22

Anto_Meath

Talking to a lad in the who I would consider to be in the know and he is of the opinion that there is a export market opening up to the UK and the Continent for for quality bulls and bullocks. He tells me some of the shippers are starting to assemble groups of cattle. The more that leave the better as it makes the factories pay for what is left.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326875#Comment_118326875

We are about a euro/ kg behind the UK price that is 350 euro on a 350 kg carcase. That kind of gap leaves the gate wide open for shippers. As no calving data is available on heifers or young cows it also leaves room around the edge. Finally you have non QA or overage cattle which are 20-30 c/ kg behind the general Irish market

On the Continental market France and Germany have moved ahead to about 60-70c/ kg ahead of us. But more importantly the Netherlands and Poland are well ahead of the Irish price so there is no cheap beef available. It leaves Irish beef grossly underpriced. However unless exporters start paying a good price in Marts processor's will not push price on

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326875#Comment_118326875

A man that has exported to Italy in the past but didn't do it for a few years told me recently that he has sent a load lately and got word back the cattle and the price were perfect, we will take plenty.

Legwax that posted here used sell this man a lot of weanlings and we all know what the quality of his cattle were👌 before he exited suckling. The more of those that go the better.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327191#Comment_118327191

If it happens it will be fir finished cattle Jjam. There is enough of a gap at present to justify it for finished or forward stored if there is a market. It is smaller abbatoirs or independent processor's supplying the wholesale trade.

kk.man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327191#Comment_118327191

It's a pity independents in the UK don't offer to process Irish origin stock finished on UK farms. There is lots of them around Morrisons, farmer fresh etc. This meat could be sold as British. I thought it was a EU stipulation stopping live exports between the two countries?