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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    I don't need to read up anyway, have known about it since a child. 23,000 died in what constitutes the ROI. 5 times the mortality rate of covid here. Attacked the stronger immune system of young people. Practically everyone posting here has a relative from the time who died. A 22 year old grand uncle here.

    What triggers me are wafflers with random statements. And populist ones.

    It's a very mild pandemic in relative terms, if the black death is at the high end of the spectrum, no disrespect to those who have died and their friends and relatives.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,802 ✭✭✭✭freshpopcorn



    I actually thought it was sort off ironic the way they had the girl on who was hard of hearing and she mentioned lip reading.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    Covid, and everything we know about it today, should not in the least bother anyone in good mental and physical health U70. It doesn't cause me a thought in what might cause me anxiety in day to day living.

    When I visit my 90 year old mam, healthy and living alone, 4 or 5 times a week, I naturally become conscious of where I've been, are we in a case surge etc.

    But my own daily life, it doesn't register. Live your life and when your time is up, your time is up.

    I joined here almost 2 months ago and I'm coming to the conclusion, that bar the occasional post, it's time wasted that could be spent at something else. Especially this thread. The LLS, Hell Week etc would give you a laugh as they're not taken so seriously and don't have 7 or 8 self professed experts, who keep changing their minds, and who couldn't be experts, or they wouldn't be here. Just posting snippets to support their angle.

    Look at the list of bans at the start of this thread and you'll see it probably does more damage to healthy young to middle aged people than covid!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Nope no emotion, maybe bemusement, unless there's some projection on your part going on. As for being hit by a car I couldn't find those stats, but in 2014 the number of injuries(8079), serious injuries(758) and deaths(193) in Ireland on the road numbered 9030 overall. Nearly double the current death toll for covid, so it does seem you are more likely as an Irish person to be hurt, badly hurt or killed in a road accident than to die of covid 19. I did find this specifically regarding the number of children under fifteen killed on Irish roads in 2015. Fourteen. So for that year at least double the number of those killed by covid under 25.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,917 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    I admit I didn't hear either, but this article caught my eye earlier.

    She seems to be speaking rational sense to me there.One of the few people pointing the finger back at the Gov, it would appear.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    'Hit by a car' is fairly vague. As a pedestrian? I find that poster so full of flip flops and waffle. In fairness your replies deal in fact.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Isn't it a bit strange that your deemed safe for 6 months after a positive PCR, but only 5 or 3 from vaccines.

    Strange indeed, given it's been found that antibody levels and immunity appear to drop in the previously infected and that this can vary by quite a lot depending on the severity of the infection. IE roughly speaking it seems those with a more protracted and severe illness show more immunity. Plus we also hear that vaccination gives better immunity than natural infection.

    Much of the boosters stuff came from Israel who were vaccinating early on with mostly Pfizer and they noted waning immunity and higher intakes into hospital among the elderly and chronically ill. The difference between five months for boosters of Moderna/Pfizer and three months for J&J was down to a single study of the latter involving a little over a hundred American veterans, majority male, average age 61, a third diabetic, over a half obese and over a half who required at least one hospital stay in the previous year for non covid related health problems. Clearly representative. Other far larger studies involving over half a million subjects in a couple of countries by Janssen and independents including the CDC in America showed slightly less protection against hospitalisation and death than Pfizer, but that protection lasted for at least eight months and actually got stronger over that time. They also found the best clinical results and protection from a booster of that vaccine came not at three months, but at eight or more. Janssen only started talking about boosters after Pfizer did. At the time that boosters were mooted, Janssen released their study that said all was pretty good at eight months. So which study is the more accurate one?

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    There's a lot of that about alright. There seems to be the all too common in these days of social media of extreme either/or thing going on depending on the person, online and off. Covid is either the Greatest Disaster Ever and We're all going to DIE!, or Nothing to see here, barely a sniffle. The middle ground is sadly lacking.

    I've seen a few posters in the last few weeks who believe that currently we're in the most dangerous phase of this pox. They seem to be forgetting that we now have far more information, better treatments and more on the way and a bag of vaccines with more on the way that seriously reduce the risks of serious illness and death. We had pretty much none of that at the start of this and during last summer and even autumn. Even so and in the midst of some hysterical drama llamas talking about tens of thousands dying in Ireland, it was pretty clear - and a few "eejits on the interwebs" hereabouts noted it - the early evidence was pointing towards a disease that overwhelmingly injured and killed the very old and the already health compromised and was almost exclusively a threat to those over forty, more like sixty plus. IIRC it was around May or June of last year after we watched the carnage in northern Italian hospitals that records and studies revealed that something like only two people under forty had died in that harrowing time. Remember the hastily erected field hospitals that a few countries rushed to build? Yet very few ever recieved patients. Remember "flatten the curve"? That aged well. Remember the worldwide panic over lack of ventilators? All seemingly forgotten.

    In Ireland the biggest takeaway was how tight our health service was in relation to overflow. Something the dogs on the street have known for decades, with every winter hospital corridor filling up with the sick on trolleys.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,293 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Wibbs wrote

    As for being hit by a car I couldn't find those stats, but in 2014 the number of injuries(8079), serious injuries(758) and deaths(193) in Ireland on the road numbered 9030 overall.

    Eh, what? You're comparing being knocked off your bike (for example) with death?

    Compare death with death.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,463 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It's just an arbitrary amount of time that covers most situations, the 5 months is really because a lot who got AZ didn't finish their course till June or July (due to the extra weeks added when figuring out clotting issues). Ideally it would be an antibody level test to figure out who needs a booster or not, but that's not that practical (as is figuring out if people infected got a severe enough dose to last even the 6 months). As it's deemed safe, it doesn't seem to matter how exact it is.

    Similarly with the rules (close at midnight, Netherlands 5-5, wears masks in these places but not these, COVID cert here but not there), they're more based on practicalities that they may reduce R enough to work than being the "best" restriction (lock everyone in the world away from each other for 2-4 weeks). Even the pantomime advice while not being officially a restriction has had an effect and will stop some infections happening (at cost to the businesses involved of course).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I did. In 2015 fourteen children under the age of 15 died on our roads. In 2020 and 21 seven have died of Covid and that's including those up to age 25. A tragedy for that seven and thier loved ones*, but an absolutely tiny risk for those under the age of 25. In the US of A with more vaccine refuseniks and more obesity and type two diabetes in kids the death toll is around 700, out of 73 million kids under the age of 18. Them's the actual facts I'm afraid.






    *I have to keep saying that or some Maude Flanders with an attack of the emotionals will accuse me of being callous.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    Who knows when these nonsense posts will stop. Who arranges all this nonsense?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    It's just an arbitrary amount of time that covers most situations, the 5 months is really because a lot who got AZ didn't finish their course till June or July (due to the extra weeks added when figuring out clotting issues). Ideally it would be an antibody level test to figure out who needs a booster or not, but that's not that practical (as is figuring out if people infected got a severe enough dose to last even the 6 months). As it's deemed safe, it doesn't seem to matter how exact it is.

    My issue is the flimflam from politicians and their advisors based on really flimsy even shítty science. If a group of studies involving hundreds of thousands over eight months from first clinical trials to the end of this summer says X and another single study of a hundred half fecked indivduals over the course of three months where the authors themselves state has limitations, I know let's go with that one. It's... I think the technical term is Askmebollix. 😁

    As for safe; the single biggest reason Moderna et al went into what was the poor cousin of vaccine research after their other trials of mRNA therapies were stopped because no way were they going to even risk human trials because the animal trials showed such serious risks, was that vaccines were seen as safer because of dosage levels and number of doses. Yet it seems outside of cross eyed loonies on Arsebook nobody is asking hang on with regard to boosters of the same therapies potentially every few months.

    Similarly with the rules (close at midnight, Netherlands 5-5, wears masks in these places but not these, COVID cert here but not there), they're more based on practicalities that they may reduce R enough to work than being the "best" restriction (lock everyone in the world away from each other for 2-4 weeks). Even the pantomime advice while not being officially a restriction has had an effect and will stop some infections happening (at cost to the businesses involved of course).

    As I said earlier if this was airborne pneumonic plague, which environment would you feel safer in, a local newsagents with a mask on or a full pub without? If you were in charge Astro, which environment would you call for more precautions in? I'd be willing to bet you wouldn't point at the shops. We even have real world evidence in this. Throughout this pandemic I've yet to see an example of clusters coming from a retail environment even pre masks etc, but pubs, clubs, concerts and sporting events have certainly been implicated. IMHO it's almost entirely a political and economic sop. As is transmission magically stopping at the school gates.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,405 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Are teachers going to close the windows during this cold spell?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,354 ✭✭✭blackcard




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,198 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,405 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Oh really B? I was going by wikipedia, but thanks for the clarification. So going by that figure the risk is 0.0004%

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,293 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Sorry, I confused myself.

    What you're saying is consistet with the idea circulating since last year that covid risk (pre-vaccination) is ballpark same as pre-pandemic all-causes mortality rate for any given age group.

    So sure, it's not black death, it's just as dangerous as everything else put together, but we live in a generally very low-mortality time period.

    FWIW a couple of weeks ago I compared Black Death mortality rates to prevailing child mortality rates at the time (risk of dying before adulthood from BD or other), and they were also same ballpark.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Yeah the Black Death killed about half of the population of Europe depending on time and place, which wouldn't have been too far off childhood mortality rates alright. IIRC the estimate was about a third of kids didn't see adulthood and that trended tragically up as the cities filled after the industrial revolution.

    Even so covid is well down the list of things that pose a risk of death to kids.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭ Chanel Echoing Salesman




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,354 ✭✭✭blackcard


    I just thought it was funny that you started your post stating "you want facts and figures" and then your first fact is incorrect. Incidentally, I got the fact that the population of Ireland under 25 is over 1.6 million from Wikipedia



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,537 ✭✭✭Icyseanfitz


    What else are they supposed to do but keep windows and doors open, it's not like any other measures where put in place



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,675 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Yes I listened to a podcast series about the black death there a few months ago and it was truly eye opening. Not to mention the other calamities that had also befallen Europe before and in between bouts of plague at the time, such as famine and extreme weather. Really a bad time to be alive, in Europe at least. Covid has been a walk in the park in comparison



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,039 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    I watched a documentary on BBC4 about the history of London a few nights back

    literally the same day as the troops came home from WW1 the flu came with it

    people who were out celebrating their men coming home that morning were dead that night



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Ah now I see. Turns out I put the zero in the wrong place. Should have been approx 1650000. My typo means my point stands more. The fact is this covid 19 virus is almost entirely a killer of the very old, the already pretty sick and the very very unlucky who fall into neither category. And even in the most vulnerable group the death rate is 0.7 and nearly half of all deaths were in those over 85. Five years older than the average longevity.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    A bit of cold air never did anyone any harm. If the kids are cold, wear more layers.



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  • Posts: 2,050 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yeah but if you ever went to school you will remember that there is always at least one kid who doesn't have the same stuff as everybody else, the little lad with no friends who always had a runny nose and wore a uniform that didn't fit him and was a bit dopey because he probably hadn't had any breakfast. But yeah, wear more layers.



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