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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Yes but with the flawed voting system the regime can simply go back to another Johnsonist incarnation few years thereafter...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,650 ✭✭✭rock22


    I'm not sure though that it is just this regime. For my sins, I frequent vintage motorcycle forum's , mostly UK based. And the casual conversation there, when it occasionally covers politics, is very very pro Brexit. I have had difficulties getting parts posted because of the new customs rules and again, I am been told it is the 'bloody Europeans' being anti British and just trying to punish them for leaving.

    I can see at least 20 years before there is any serious attempt by UK to re-join. And I imagine it will only happen after the UK have again entered the CU for a few years.

    And then of course, will they be welcomed?

    I think, ultimately they will be allowed back in but it will not be a welcome with open arms and I can see the French in particular being slow to come round to the idea of a UK within the EU again. As Strazdas says, At the moment the UK are burning their bridges as fast as they can.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Good point : also, the Tories have been in power for the vast bulk of the last 50 years. New Labour was almost an aberration.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Please don't dump links here. Post removed.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 837 ✭✭✭Going Strong


    You wait ages for Ireland to be thrown under the bus.......


    And you wait some more.


    German coalition agreement includes commitment to ensuring that the Northern Ireland protocol is implemented and the Belfast Agreement is protected.



    https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1463518224557957127



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,545 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Those German car makers will be along any moment now to demand it, I'm sure. When they actually have surplus cars to sell and if the UK any money left by then to buy them.


    Actually wish I hadn't made that joke now as I could see the car shortage being used as a reason for why the car makers haven't been their saviour!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Not directly related to Brexit per se, but Johnson is coming out with some bonkers stuff in relation to the Channel tragedy - tells Macron he wants a "returns policy" for refugees and the right for British troops to patrol French beaches.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,823 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Well, pre-Brexit, the UK returned 249 or so migrants. Since they're out of the EU and "Dublin 3," the number returned is...5


    But, they're taking back control. Hilarious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,690 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    This is the government that had a meltdown when it was suggested that the EU should have an office in Belfast to facilitate liaison with UK authorities on the implementation of the NI Protocol, but now they want UK law enforcement officers patrolling inside French territory?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    I see Priti Patel and the UK have been un invited from the conference on migration that France had scheduled.


    France has said they have un invited her due to the inappropriate response of BJ's open letter requesting the French accept the return of thise who manage to cross, amongst other things, some 5 point plan BJ came up with.



  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Why should France and the EU make any deal to take back illegal migrants? What does the UK have to offer in this deal?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,823 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    With all the fishermen losing their livelihoods in the UK, I would think they could be creatively used to rescue migrants in dinghies. Bring them to a processing center, then off to the UK if appropriate to work as HGV drivers (only need a bit of training these days), fruit pickers or butchers in meat packing plants. I'm sure the migrants would love the work opportunity. Plus this would help stem the net outbound migration issue the UK has now!


    See? Brexit for the win, creating all these job opportunities and using surplus capacity (fishing vessels). I'd expect fishing vessel fuel usage to be net carbon neutral versus flocks of dinghies with brutally inefficient outboard motors. The outboards could be confiscated for spare parts, reducing another import issue (Brexit again for the win!)


    Rees-Mogg was wrong; an obvious Brexit benefit right away, not 50 years from now!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,754 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    The migrant 'crisis' is a perfect summation of Brexit. Little actual facts or understanding of the reality, but plenty of headlines and ministers out exclaiming that something needs to be done. The general public then feel under siege and its the dastardly EU that are the problem

    Then, the something os always only one way, the way that places all the responsibility onto someone else and absolves the UK or any actual responsibility. They quickly dispense with any pretence of international law, or even moral obligations, completely ignore the role that Global Britain played in creating the migrants in the first place.

    Even the letter, published to great fanfare yesterday, was a cynical PR spin attempt by Johnson to appear to be doing something about a crisis that his own Home Secretary has continually said that she didn't care about. Far from caring about them drowning, her idea was to turn them away on the sea and refuse the RNLI to rescue them!

    The French have, rightly IMO, got the hump that yet again the UK are carrying out the talks in public and very clearly blaming the French for everything.

    Direct comparisons to how they are carrying out Brexit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Yes, I'm reading there is a huge amount of anger in France that Johnson quoted large parts of a private conversation with Macron and also that he took to Twitter at all (especially as there was a lot of implied criticism of France and its actions in the text).

    This business of aiming everything they do and say at Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph readers is beyond bizarre. It's almost as if they view the Channel situation as some sort of PR event that needs to be 'spun' and propagandised.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Is it as simple as the Trumpian method that you always be campaigning; sloganeering and soundbites? In the absence of any tangible benefits wrought by Brexit, with CoVid also fouling the soup, maybe Johnson's taking the populist route of keeping an easily agitated demographic riled up. Keep the Ultras emotional enough, so that intellectual discussions are impossible, while holding fast til the next election. Starting a war is a known way to bolster flagging support; Johnson has picked enough fights with France it seems the next best thing



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,259 ✭✭✭HalloweenJack


    I find it quite amusing that the UK now has control of its borders yet is looking for a unified approach when problems appear. If it were still a part of the EU, I imagine things would run a lot smoother in terms of making agreements and sticking to them.

    Of course, their behaviour since 2016 has made any chances of an agreement less likely and not being a member of the club means there's less motivation to keep them happy.

    FWIW, using 27 dead people as a political football is quite disgusting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    If you read 1984 you'd say that this exactly what the Party did to keep in power. Just a softer version of it. Which makes it more hideous.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I think so. The seems to be a complete dearth of vision, innovation, and talent in the current Conservative party. They've inflicted this wound on the country solely for their own self-preservation and now that they've tapped the vein dry, it looks like conflict with the old enemy is next. I don't think that this thing with France will be enough on its own. Anger is like a fire in that it needs fuel. Johnson has clearly run out of this and, since he has nothing else, he's going to plough on regardless. 

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I have read 1984 and there are certainly many parallels. Keep the 'proles' in total ignorance and feed them all sorts of nonsense. A responsible press would be calling them out on this, but the UK version see it as their role to keep the Tory Party in power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Hard to know what the UK is playing at. We have all been using the 'driving off a cliff' analogy for years (5 years and counting). Also Coveneys famous comments about 'do what I want or I'll jump'.

    At this point they have already burned all their bridges and yet they still won't let up, even as they now turn around and want to renegotiate the NIP with the EU (while threatening Ireland), or want to work with France on refugees/ immigration, while disparaging them and mmaking unfair and unrealistic demands. In both scenarios they are offering absolutely nothing.

    The new German government have agreed as part of their coaliton deal that they are committed to the NIP, and back sanctions if it is broken in any way.

    The Dutch, who used to back the UK in many EU disputes, have also lost their patience with this behaviour.

    The US have continually warned that they will not accept the protocol being brought down, and will not sign a trade deal if the UK make that happen.

    If you look at it, relations are just about as low as they can get with virtually all 'traditional allies' in Ireland, France, Germany, the US, the Netherlands etc. etc. Or, in other words, all their neighbours who they really do rely on in a globalised world.

    From an outside perspective, seems they are determined to completely isolate themselves and turn everyone against them. Not only are they the sick man of Europe, but they have lost all logic, reason and are now abusive, like a patient suffering from dementia.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Thing is; all the above is true. But if you're an embattled Tory whose popularity can be pinned on that lingering sense of English Exceptionalism, the rest of the world casting stink eye at the UK will only embolden said PM and the Red Top brigade types. It might eventually dawn on the broad populous that the current government may not be the best ones at the tiller; but until that point I expect the jingoistic rhetoric to get much worse, on a par with that seen immediately after the 2016 result.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The rhetoric will only get worse, this much we know. However, the amount of people this will appeal to will dwindle. I think this country is fairly centrist on the whole. The problem is that even if said moderates and the less zealous English nationalists do lose faith with the Tories, there's nowhere for them to go. The closest the Lib Dems come to achieving anything is their continued existence and I don't see them fitting in with even the right wing of the Labour party. I think we're heading towards the same issues the US has with its Senate where tiny constituencies will still elect an MP whereas more liberal people who tend to cluster in cities will send proportionately the same number.

    I think 2022 is going to be an illuminating year. Covid is becoming endemic as opposed to pandemic and Johnson has neither it or Brexit to hide behind any more.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It will come at a terrible cost though. Keeps all the Tory voters and xenophobes and bigots blissfully happy, but shreds the country's international reputation (and yes, that of their people too) in the process.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    In what way is the UK the sick man of Europe ?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Maybe those voters don't need to go anywhere, not if Rishi Sunak swans in to appeal to those centrists. Remains to be seen if Sunak has designs on no. 10 but were you conspiratorially minded you'd almost wonder if Johnson's increasingly brazen manner is being quietly indulged - simply to allow him to crash holding the bag, at which point the "moderates" can take over, pleading sobriety of purpose. Let Johnson stir up his archaic sense of jingoism 'til it's no longer useful. Playing with fire of course, and perhaps my spitballing gives these people more strategy and intelligence than they deserve

    What does it matter if it keeps them in power though? That's obviously the big flaw with being Always Campaigning; there's never a good point to step back from the brink so all you can do is keep on keeping on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Too late for that though. Their international reputation has been shredded.

    It's just that that they are trying to make 'deals' and 'negotiate' with all those they have upset, as they continue to insult them, and cause trouble.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't know. Even if Sunak wins, they've built themselves up to be the party of English nationalism at this stage. He won't be able to just undo that, even if he wanted to. I'd be gobsmacked if he didn't have designs on number 10, frankly but he comes across at being more disciplined, if not more clever outright than Johnson.

    What's weird is their decision to push past their base has afflicted them with the same electoral malaise that plagues Labour. The Southerners don't want to pay for Northerners to level up while the latter resent the former for being too stingy and hoarding wealth. It's not a recipe for harmony as Labour well know.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,541 ✭✭✭yagan


    You understand that replying you're opening the door to a rehash of all the usual Brexiter tropes?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Dont really understand how Sunak is being positioned as Boris successor at all. The man might be exceedingly clever and astute - I don't really know - but unsure he has the qualities of a leader.

    To me he comes across as a very nerdy posh private school boy. I remember seeing the following clip and being quite embarassed:

    I can't see him being leader.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    The UK has certainly had big problems with productivity levels compared to other major European countries but it's a bit of a stretch to label it the sick man of Europe. The pandemic has thrown a major spanner in the works for all economies so it will be interesting to see who emerges in a strong position when it's finally all over although I suspect it will be years before the true economic effects of Covid and Brexit will be known.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Anyone with an issue with a post/poster, please use the report function. Ad hominems on thread will result in sanctions and posts being removed.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Apart from the "nerd" bit, what makes you think a posh private schoolboy is some kind of disadvantage in the case of political ascension in the UK? I will grant you, there's an air of the inauthentic with his public persona - especially with his social media profile after he hired a media manager, so that could be the thing that does him in.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    At first glance, that's a farcical amount of money - but compared with other mega-structures of this complexity is it at least comparable? Am thinking of those giant road bridges built in China etc.

    Wonder how much it cost to fund a feasibility study like this; something everyone and their mother knew was a complete waste of time, born from the spitball of a PM flailing for ideas to shore up a creaking union.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,541 ✭✭✭yagan


    It was obviously only ever placation to Loyalists in NI as it was of zero benefit to the English Brexiter heartlands to fund a massive project linking one nation whose denizens are optional EU citizens to a Scotland that could well be realigned with the EU/EEA in the coming years.

    Manning a 500Km with nearly 300 crossing points in Ireland is of equally little interest to English Brexiters.

    Edit to add they already postponed checks on EU imports three times already and I won't be surprised if the next deadline in January gets postponed too.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,561 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Why though? NI has no benefits for the Tory party. It has at most 18 MP's and none of those seats are flipping blue any time soon. Money spent on this is money that could have placate Johnson's northern voters instead.

    Was this all it was marketed as? They still need to ensure that no hard border appears on the island of Ireland anyway.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    Johson's idea to conduct a feasibility study was backed by the Irish government at the time. The study has reported back as not being worth the cost and the idea has been shelved.

    Similar criticisms were made when the idea of the Channel Tunnel was first mooted. And there's an ongoing discussion about the costs and feasability of HS2. I see no fault in any government coming up with ideas for big infrastructure plans - it's how modern economies develop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Should be remembered that Sunak is a hardcore Brexiteer - that immediately makes him suspect in my book (it seems nearly every dodgy type in English politics ended up on the Brexit side of the fence).



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,474 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Has the UK paid France what they already promised yet ?


    In other news - something that will make the UK even less attractive to foreign workers.

    The new nationality and borders bill will allow the Home Office to remove British Citizenship without notice effectively denying appeals.

    Other proposed rule changes in the bill have already attracted criticism, including rendering claims from anyone arriving in the UK by an illegal route inadmissible, while criminalising them and anyone who seeks to save their lives, and giving Border Force staff immunity from prosecution if people die in the Channel during “pushback” operations.




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The bridge linking NI to GB was always a stupid idea and whilst the Irish may have said "knock yourself out" they did so whilst laughing quietly at the prepostery of it. The terrain is very different to the channel but more importantly are the thousands of tonnes of munitions dumped there by the Brits.

    By all means, come up with ideas but maybe think about them quietly to yourself before announcing them to the world!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    It's only likely to make the UK less attractive to foreign workers who attempt to enter the country illegally. Those who apply through the correct legal channels have nothing to fear. In that respect the USA's attitude towards the many Irish " undocumented " workers is exactly the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,541 ✭✭✭yagan


    The UK is less attractive now for legitimate applicants as there'll no longer be an appeal in the instance of Windrush type deportation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    According to latest UK government figures - slightly skewed by Covid - there was a 19% increase in work-related visas issued to year end June 2021 compared to June 2020 but 7% fewer than the previous year.Skilled work, which accounts for 60% of work-related visas granted, saw the largest increase in visa numbers, up 16,775 or 19%. High value, Skilled worker, Temporary worker and Other work visas and exemptions routes all increased compared to the previous year.

    The idea that the UK is no longer attractive to legitimate applicants isn't really born out by the figures and especially by the thousands of people prepared to risk their lives every month to enter illegally across the channel - most of them men aged under 35 - to find employment.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    How many of those visas were for EU citizens who were forced to apply for a visa in order to continue working in the UK under the EUSS (as opposed to people who just arrived in the UK)?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,541 ✭✭✭yagan


    Settlement visas.

    BTW, where did I say it was no longer attractive?

    I said it would be less attractive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    None.

    There were 172,045 work-related visas granted to people living outside the UK in the year ending June 2021. The EUSS is a settlement status scheme and totally different.

    5.2 million people have so far been granted settled status and the number granted in the year ending June 2021 is more than 3 milllion.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,160 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Back to Brexit itself and Frost is still threatening to trigger Article 16 :

    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1464271847797764101



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming



    On note of the windrush scandal .... I had BBC radio 4 on whilst driving last week or weekend and some uncomfortable realities reared their heads regards the Home Office. I can't recall the exact context in which the topic got raised but it may have been news headlines. Something like only 5 people caught up in the Windrush debacle and who have been ruled as entitled to redress have actually seen any money from the government. On top of that, this sh1t is still going on with people being caught up in the Windrush net and treated absurdly with Machiavellian sadism (or incompetence; it's hard to tell which at times .. )

    So yeah, it's really not a good look for any applicants, legitimate or otherwise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,051 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The channel tunnel was linking London to Paris and HS2 upgrading London links to the other 2/3 biggest cities in England.

    A very different prospect to the building and long term upkeep involved in linking Belfast to Scotland which has no real world benefits



  • Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭Maxface


    I don't read many things on Daily Mail but read the odd thing to see what way the wind is blowing at that time with certain events but I always look at the comments to get a real feel of the temperature between those readers. Recently the tide has turned massively against Johnson. It is very noticeable and like all things it was a slight turn from the Mail recently and now heavy noise against the Premier. It would not surprise me to see more articles that are semi against Johnson and the tide turning quite quickly. There are a number of hurdles coming up, Christmas and all the shopping and all goods unavailability etc, winter and the possibility of extreme temps and power costs and the current UK system with power providers, continued migrants and new checks on 01 of next year. I would not be surprised to see a push very soon but to me it is obvious that his time is up and Johnson will be gone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    I’m secretly hoping that Macron has Castex and Darmanain steal his thunder and rip up the Le Touquet agreement first.



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