Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

eire4

pixelburp wrote: »

Hoey is, to be blunt, talking out of her àss and is a spectacularly disingenuous attempt to justify brexit by implying it has unlocked a latent discontent in other nations (when reality has been anything but), in particular one her type like to think never truly let go of Britain's lure. By means of taking advantage of the likelihood any listening audience hasn't a damn clue about Irish politics. embarrassing, childish stuff really.

Not only is she talking out of her posterior as you say and being disingenuous about it but the truth of the matter is actually the direct opposite. The utter debacle that brexit has been and that is the UK right now has if anything strengthened the EU.

murphaph

pixelburp wrote: »

Hoey is, to be blunt, talking out of her àss and is a spectacularly disingenuous attempt to justify brexit by implying it has unlocked a latent discontent in other nations (when reality has been anything but), in particular one her type like to think never truly let go of Britain's lure. By means of taking advantage of the likelihood any listening audience hasn't a damn clue about Irish politics. embarrassing, childish stuff really.

As stated above, these are downright lies. She knows these things to be untrue. As such they aren't childish but a sinister attempt to sway the British electorate which sadly seems fairly easy to sway.

joeysoap

Hoey fooled the labour party for years.(into letting on she was for the Labour party)

O'Neill

joeysoap wrote: »

Hoey fooled the labour party for years.(into letting on she was for the Labour party)

Also her constitutents in Vauxhall, London which finally eventually voted her out. I know the Labour Party are supposed to be coalition but you still need a bit of common ground with the main goal of the party FFS.

pixelburp

eire4 wrote: »

Not only is she talking out of her posterior as you say and being disingenuous about it but the truth of the matter is actually the direct opposite. The utter debacle that brexit has been and that is the UK right now has if anything strengthened the EU.

Oh yeah, IIRC previously Eurosceptic parties like FN in France removed mention of leaving the EU from their manifesto. Brexit has become a cautionary tale as to the complexity, danger and mess a country would find itself in if it left the club. But again, Britain's reporting of EU affairs has always been negligible at best and ridden with scaremongering falsehoods at worst (not that Ireland is any better, but we seem a bit more aware of the EU's nuts an bolts at least), so Hoey can blather away on matters external and be lapped up. Ireland as always chasing British coattails, or the EU with their "rules" (to the extent famously false stories of helmets for trapeze artists were swallowed without question)

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hoey is not mistaken. She is lying.

She was one of several hundred people at a Unionist protest in Newtonards last night. Just in case anyone thinks she has any Labour credentials left.

There five parades. During marching season. Which may explain the high turnout :P


This wasn't an Ian Paisley special with 100,000 turning up.

Charles Babbage

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

There five parades. During marching season. Which may explain the high turnout :P

Almost as many as you would get drinking at the canal in Portobello.

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

The thing is, the success of this strategy depends on their supporters remaining sufficiently numerous to constitute an election-winning bloc.

We are all capable of believing complete shîte, but when it's obvious shîte you need some kind of motivation to keep believing it. People choose to believe Brexiter shîte because they like the Brexiter narrative that accompanies it, of a proud resurgent Britain which will flourish globally once freed from the pettifogging embrace of Europe.

They'll keep beleiving that for as long as they can because it's an attractive belief; what British person wouldn't want to believe in the flourishing of Britain. But its much easier to believe that as a future promise than it is when it's suppose to be a present reality. An awful lot of people in the fishing industry who supported Brexit no longer do, because they can't reconcile that attractive belief with the lived experience of Brexit. The same is true of more and more farmers. And, as the ripples of Brexit spread, more and more people will find themselves in this position - small business owners, then small business employees. And so on.

I think the Brexiter strategy will be to replace optimistic belief in the flourishing of Britain with angry belief in the malice of the EU as the cause of Britain's failure to flourish. But that will be a difficult sell because the angry, bitter belief is much less attractive than the bright, optimistic one. People just won't feel as good about themselves clinging to the new belief as they did clinging to the old one. And embracing all the shîte that Brexiters shovel at them will become much less psychologically rewarding.

And that's a long-term weakness for Brexitry. It's support base will be hugely vulnerable to an opposing but more attractive belief. At some point, someone will come along with the message of "It doesn't have to be like this! We don't have to be at daggers drawn with the EU all the time! We don't have to cut off our own noses just to spite the EU's face! Brexit is done! It's not going to be undone! It's time to build a new, constructive relationship with the EU which is based on securing the UK's advantage rather than expressing its anger!" Etc, etc. This probably won't be a remain/rejoin message; more a message that, since remain/rejoin is completely off the table, Britain can safely contemplate greater co-operation, greater alignment, greater trustworthiness, where that delivers benefits for Britain. Hard Brexiters will of course denounce this as covert remain/rejoin, but I don't think that will be an attractive message to enough people to hold together a sufficiently large coalition of the miserable to retain power.

I think this is a perfectly reasonable projection for one possible future, however, I worry that as the reality of brexit becomes more obvious, that it is harming British prospects and affecting people's incomes and opportunities, that attitudes towards the EU will harden, not soften. People would rather double down on their original decision than admit that they were taken for a ride by people they backed repeatedly over many years

Its not just the hardcore brexiteers who are at risk of becoming more and more anti-eu as brexit gets worse and worse

The media in the UK are going to continuously gaslight and spin everything in a way that makes it look like the UK is under attack from a Jilted partner, and one proven way to entrench a population towards a cause, even an extremely damaging cause, is to make them believe that they are being attacked from outside.

We're early days and there's already been gunboat diplomacy. The UK press constantly blame the EU for the increased red tape around exports, when this is obviously a consequence of the UK leaving the customs union and single market. The emperor has no clothes and the media are gaslighting everyone who sees this into questioning their own judgement (apart from a few vocal minority exceptions)

Akrasia

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

At the very best that would mean Westminster pushing through a bunch of delayed laws.

It would also hand Westminster , the Tory party, some of the cabinet , carte blanche to do whatever they wanted to, to NI.


This comment explains what would happen next



Ditching NI would free up £10bn a year to bribe Scotland to stay.
More importantly it would get Brexit Done ! And free GB from having to accept EU rules.


Yes the DUP can prop up a Tory government but if Sammy's in charge and the DUP loose seats to Alliance / UUP / TUV at the next election it becomes a lot more difficult and may not be worth bothering for them.

How are they going to ditch NI though? Offer a border poll?

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

I worry that as the reality of brexit becomes more obvious, that it is harming British prospects and affecting people's incomes and opportunities, that attitudes towards the EU will harden, not soften. People would rather double down on their original decision than admit that they were taken for a ride by people they backed repeatedly over many years

If - and it's still an if, albeit looking more likely to be when - British prospects are harmed and people start feeling it, chances are they'll feel it most markedly because they can compare it directly to the opportunities enjoyed by EU citizens they know personally.

Whatever the media does to spin the Big Bad EU Are Punishing Us line, increasing numbers of British voters will know that there's a viable alternative, because their family and friends living in the EU won't have to suffer in the way, or their businesses will have offices and warehouses in the EU that offer an alternative perspective.

Sooner or later, some British politician will have the backing of his/her party to stand up and say "we could have a piece of that cake" and have enough voters say "hmmm, maybe" to get the ball rolling on negotiations for a new trade deal with the EU.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

If - and it's still an if, albeit looking more likely to be when - British prospects are harmed and people start feeling it, chances are they'll feel it most markedly because they can compare it directly to the opportunities enjoyed by EU citizens they know personally.

Whatever the media does to spin the Big Bad EU Are Punishing Us line, increasing numbers of British voters will know that there's a viable alternative, because their family and friends living in the EU won't have to suffer in the way, or their businesses will have offices and warehouses in the EU that offer an alternative perspective.

Sooner or later, some British politician will have the backing of his/her party to stand up and say "we could have a piece of that cake" and have enough voters say "hmmm, maybe" to get the ball rolling on negotiations for a new trade deal with the EU.

Also, I'm struggling to see what the big 'win' or 'pay off' is for the English voters to have the EU as an enemy. Right wing press will keep peddling the line that the EU is evil but how does that benefit the English? They'll notice that the EU aren't even remotely interested in them and don't pose a threat.

The whole problem with the Brexit narrative is that it has created an imaginary oppressor or coloniser. This could only work if the EU was acting aggressively towards them, but the EU has already moved on and forgotten about Brexit and the UK.

Nate--IRL--

Strazdas wrote: »

The whole problem with the Brexit narrative is that it has created an imaginary oppressor or coloniser. This could only work if the EU was acting aggressively towards them, but the EU has already moved on and forgotten about Brexit and the UK.

They will lie. They will create the fiction that the EU is aggressive toward them.

Nate

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

Also, I'm struggling to see what the big 'win' or 'pay off' is for the English voters to have the EU as an enemy. Right wing press will keep peddling the line that the EU is evil but how does that benefit the English? They'll notice that the EU aren't even remotely interested in them and don't pose a threat..

Why do you think this? Russia is able to keep its (relatively impoverished) population mesmerized with propaganda for decades - have the Brexiters/Tory party/UK media not shown they are perfectly capable of doing the same?
How many Brits think, the EU "triggered" article 16 and furthermore that this was shocking (unlike the weekly threats from Johnson & Frost); EU blocked vaccine exports unlike the magnanimous UK, the UK magnanimously plans on giving vaccines to Ireland - etc
The UK has spent 40 years lying about the EU - and the UK citizenry have lapped it up. Why would any of that change?

Strazdas

fash wrote: »

Why do you think this? Russia is able to keep its (relatively impoverished) population mesmerized with propaganda for decades - have the Brexiters/Tory party/UK media not shown they are perfectly capable of doing the same?
How many Brits think, the EU "triggered" article 16 and furthermore that this was shocking (unlike the weekly threats from Johnson & Frost); EU blocked vaccine exports unlike the magnanimous UK, the UK magnanimously plans on giving vaccines to Ireland - etc
The UK has spent 40 years lying about the EU - and the UK citizenry have lapped it up. Why would any of that change?

One big difference though is that Russia is genuinely surrounded by 'hostile' countries who don't like or trust the Putin regime.

The Tories and the Brexit press are creating an imaginary enemy. The EU has long since moved on and completely forgotten about the UK (an even worse fate than the EU being hostile to it). So I have no idea what the 'win' for the English public is here....being whipped up to hate a union that doesn't spend a moment even thinking or worrying about them.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

Why do you think this? Russia is able to keep its (relatively impoverished) population mesmerized with propaganda for decades - have the Brexiters/Tory party/UK media not shown they are perfectly capable of doing the same?

Because Britain and ordinary British people are considerably more integrated into the European Union than anyone in Russia. Yes, there will be pockets of hard-core English nationalist extremists who are proud to know absolutely no-one that isn't also English by birth and breeding ... but the vast majority have all kinds of connections to most of western Europe.

There is already, in the six months since Brexit, a new two-tier society emerging in Britain - those who have dual citizenship (UK + one of the EU27) and those who are "pure" British. I've just started a recruitment process for a French organisation and we are practising discrimination: if you're British and don't have an EU passport, then feck off, we don't want to hear from you. That's in the advert (okay, maybe not in those exact words ... :rolleyes: )

Over the coming years, lots of voters - especially the younger ones, whose social and professional networks are even more entwined with the EU than those of their parents - will come up against example after example after example of how things were better in the good old days, before Boris got Brexit done. It'll be a hard sell for the tabloids to continually blame "Brussels" for the bad stuff when everyone knows someone who isn't quite so badly affected, because they have less fettered access to the EU.

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

One big difference though is that Russia is genuinely surrounded by 'hostile' countries who don't like or trust the Putin regime.

The Tories and the Brexit press are creating an imaginary enemy. The EU has long since moved on and completely forgotten about the UK (an even worse fate than the EU being hostile to it). So I have no idea what the 'win' for the English public is here....being whipped up to hate a union that doesn't spend a moment even thinking or worrying about them.

Yes,the EU has moved on in the main.Although Ursula Von der leyen seems to have a personal vendetta against the UK,possibly because her failings have been exposed for all to see in her dealings with the UK.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yes,the EU has moved on in the main.Although Ursula Von der leyen seems to have a personal vendetta against the UK,possibly because her failings have been exposed for all to see in her dealings with the UK.

What dealings has she had with the UK?

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yes,the EU has moved on in the main.Although Ursula Von der leyen seems to have a personal vendetta against the UK,possibly because her failings have been exposed for all to see in her dealings with the UK.

Is this another one of your feelings or do you any actual evidence of this vendetta?

ancapailldorcha

Off topic posts removed. We don't need to redo the A16 debate yet again.

RobMc59, please stop dumping links here.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

One big difference though is that Russia is genuinely surrounded by 'hostile' countries who don't like or trust the Putin

Give it a year or two more of Tory rule.

McGiver

RobMc59 wrote:

Yes,the EU has moved on in the main.Although Ursula Von der leyen seems to have a personal vendetta against the UK,possibly because her failings have been exposed for all to see in her dealings with the UK.

This is a fantasy. There's no vendetta.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Another great payoff from Brexit, making London less relevant as a media centre -

250 broadcasting licences moved from the U.K. back to the EU.

https://informitv.com/2021/06/17/250-channels-left-the-united-kingdom/

250 broadcasting licences migrated from the United Kingdom to European countries due to its departure from the European Union. Half of the channels available in Europe outside their country of origin fell under the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom in 2018, declining to 10% at the end of 2020.
Over a quarter of international channels in Europe are now licensed in The Netherlands, with a fifth licensed in Luxembourg…

eire4

McGiver wrote: »

This is a fantasy. There's no vendetta.

I think your been generous saying fantasy I would say more like classic brexiteer disingenuous comments.

RobMc59

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

Another great payoff from Brexit, making London less relevant as a media centre -

250 broadcasting licences moved from the U.K. back to the EU.

https://informitv.com/2021/06/17/250-channels-left-the-united-kingdom/

This type of post brexit realignment also works in the opposite direction.Reuters have recently reported a thousand EU financial providers and businesses opened UK offices after brexit.

schmoo2k

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yes,the EU has moved on in the main.Although Ursula Von der leyen seems to have a personal vendetta against the UK,possibly because her failings have been exposed for all to see in her dealings with the UK.

@RobMc59 - Can you list the personal vendettas?

Muahahaha

Front page of todays Sunday Times 'Cross border trade rockets due to Brexit'

-Tesco, Sainsburys & Spar are now sourcing chilled meats from Northern Ireland suppliers rather than importing them from the UK, bringing more economic activity to the province
-Trade from Republic to North is up by 40% over 2020 figures and 54% since 2018
-Trade from North to Republic is up by 61% over 2020s figures and has more than doubled (111%) since 2018
-EU is preparing a legal case on the Protocol that will use the above shift in trade figures as evidence that Northern Irish businesses are shifting their trade away from the UK and towards Ireland

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

How are they going to ditch NI though? Offer a border poll?

The usual way by a thousand Tory cuts which will induce the voters.

HSCNI is not part of the NHS, but NHS cuts will affect it

Capita are doing the PIP assessments in NI. A awful lot of people in NI depend on handouts or state jobs.

The subvention of about £10Bn a year

The usual opinion polls.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

This type of post brexit realignment also works in the opposite direction.Reuters have recently reported a thousand EU financial providers and businesses opened UK offices after brexit.

Yeah.

Oh, wait.

Nope, someone's been spinning the figures, based on one single British financial consultancy's press release based on Freedom of Information requests, and (as is often the case) lazy journalists grabbing the first convenient figure and not bothering to go any further.

And then lazy posters not checking the inaccurate information they're posting online.

First Reuters article, from January 2020: "A thousand EU financial firms plan to open UK offices after Brexit"


Press release from Bovill
First figure:

1. The total number of notifications received from firms to use the temporary permissions regime.
As at 14 January 2021, the total number of firms in TPR was 1,476.

Second figure:

On 11 October 2019 Bovill sent the following Freedom of Information request to the FCA:

The total number of notifications received from firms to use the temporary permissions regime...
The answers were as follows:

1. 1,441

So, quick bit of mental arithmetic, 1476-1441 = 35 new applications in the two years since the first request. Not such a great Brexit dividend after all.

And these are, as stated, applications to use the temporary permissions set up to enable the continuance of business between EU and UK offices while the EU's unilateral concessions to the financial services sector run their course.

View

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yes,the EU has moved on in the main.Although Ursula Von der leyen seems to have a personal vendetta against the UK,possibly because her failings have been exposed for all to see in her dealings with the UK.

UvdL is an Anglophile. In her late teens/early twenties, she was living under a very real death threat in Germany from the Red Army Faction, due to the position her father held as the Minister-President of the Niedersachsen Bundesland government. Based on security advice, she was forced to leave Germany and study in London, where freed from the death threat, she freely admits she had an absolute ball. Hence her view of the U.K. is largely overwhelmingly positive.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah.

Oh, wait.

Nope, someone's been spinning the figures, based on one single British financial consultancy's press release based on Freedom of Information requests, and (as is often the case) lazy journalists grabbing the first convenient figure and not bothering to go any further.

And then lazy posters not checking the inaccurate information they're posting online.

First Reuters article, from January 2020: "A thousand EU financial firms plan to open UK offices after Brexit"


Press release from Bovill
First figure:

Second figure:


So, quick bit of mental arithmetic, 1476-1441 = 35 new applications in the two years since the first request. Not such a great Brexit dividend after all.

And these are, as stated, applications to use the temporary permissions set up to enable the continuance of business between EU and UK offices while the EU's unilateral concessions to the financial services sector run their course.

There are multiple articles from multiple sources saying exactly the same thing,that EU companies are setting up offices in the UK(some as recently as April this year).
I'd rather not post links for obvious reasons.