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Will there be another lockdown?

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Comments

  • Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This isn't the thread for it, but I just don't see restrictions being fully relaxed. There was never a level 0 in any of the living with covid plans. Level 1 was full of restrictions. I just don't see nphet ever not being concerned. Cases and the health service are always going to be the metric. We're close to 100% of the eligible population vaccinated and still there are heavy restrictions. This is really as good as it gets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,037 ✭✭✭✭Degag


    I think the hospitals are the obvious issue at the moment. We are largely restriction free currently even with that threat.

    I think if the hospitals were in a better position then we’d be pretty much restriction free now, barring masks perhaps and some other high risk activities.

    The 5% are causing alot of these issues ironically.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 107 ✭✭Moragle


    I've had my booster as a health care worker. I'm also 18 weeks pregnant. Nothing fascist about it. I just feel that I'd like my child to live



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,356 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    At any stage, do you get embarrassed falling for this every time?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,356 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08



    But my friends friends sisters brothers hairdressers fella got a WhatsApp saying we were definitely locking down?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,985 ✭✭✭El Gato De Negocios


    It wouldn't at all surprise me to see some form of lockdown/more stringent restrictions/call it what you will, come early December. A 2 week "circuit breaker" to allow people to have a "meaningful Christmas". People will go absolutely balubas over the Christmas period anyway which will drive cases so the logical option is to try and stem the tide before the floodgates ultimately open.

    You'd have a pain in your bollix with the whole fuckin lot of it. 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,136 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    The term 2 week circuit breaker was used but did any country successfully do a 2 week circuit breaker? I remember countries doing lockdowns but I don't remember them lasting only 2 weeks.

    As far as I can tell, lockdown takes far more than 2 weeks to actually have an effect. So the choices are clear. Lock down now and skip Christmas or have Christmas while the numbers get ever higher and have a longer lockdown in January. Take your pick.

    Will anyone nail their colours to the mast and say which of the available options they choose? I suspect there will be far more Captians Hindsight who lazily wait for the government to decide which approach they're taking and then declare they would much prefer the other option.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think most people understand the distinction between a “document” sent by a Government Dept and one sent by the VFI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,338 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    That's a highly privileged definition of a lockdown.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,338 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    The hospital's have always been the issue. Moreso now when we have s vaccine but cannot live with covid until we have more healthcare infrastructure.

    Now is the time to reform the health sector.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    Children / grand children not allowed to go see parents / grandparents.

    you seem to have a highly Dickensian view of what lockdown is. Sorry not everyone married within the 5km rule.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    Sounds like a lockdown is not going to happen. Fair play to NPHET for holding firm. The anti restrictions crowd will need something else to get outraged about.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,291 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I'd be surprised myself at a lockdown before Christmas. It would be too economically and psychologically damaging. I could see them panic if we got another post Christmas spike like last year.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    That's what they came out with a week or so ago. It's just planning and also not to assume normality this year and by the looks of things the public are cancelling plans anyway.



  • Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I don't think we'll have a lockdown again unless it is absolutely necessary.

    I don't think we have the money to do it and I think people are starting to see that they don't work anyways.

    If it was free we'd be sitting in lockdown for the next year's.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,291 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    This. When looking at how things will work in the future or now, my goto position is to look at two things; human nature and follow the money.

    People are tired of it all now. The initial panic of corpses lining the streets is long gone. The vast majority of those who died from it are around the average age of longevity anyway and the vast majority have serious underlying conditions. The majority have been vaccinated, especially the older and health compromised. The pandemic itself while tragic for those who did die from this bastard pox is actually the least deadly in history. People's mental and financial health have been seriously compromised. Governments and many businesses are running out of money. Another lockdown will be a very hard sell, as we've seen in Europe where the governments have tried. The angry protests are one thing, quite another are the numbers of people tacitly ignoring the rules when they can.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Neither is also a viable option. At this point with our vaccination rates they simply have to tough it out - imagine the optics across Europe and the world seeing a country with 90% vaccination rate going in to a lockdown again - it’s a white flag that the vaccines won’t end this either. Some indoor restrictions likely and probably going to be a miserable winter for the unvaccinated/those without certs but a full lockdown just isn’t coming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,136 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I'd say they're expecting a post Christmas spike. He numbers aren't coming down so the only way for them to go over the Christmas weeks is up.

    People talk a lot about Christmas day and sitting around the table spreading covid. I'd say that's The least of it. You're probably far more likely to pick up covid on a crowded 20 minute bus journey than a Christmas day in a house with 5 family members. I'd say the numbers will go up from the socialising, office parties, additional high street shopping and other Christmas activities. But those things involve spending money and businesses making money.

    Pubs, restaurants and shops would be hit far harder by closing in December than closing in January. I've been saying I think they will try to stay open for Christmas and impose the necessary restrictions in January.



  • Posts: 8,532 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Agree with most of this. That's why I do believe that any talk of cancelling Christmas socializing is premature. As long as it's done in a safe and Covid concious manner than people should enjoy themselves this year. I don't think we should be considering asking people not mix this year for a second year in a row. 2 Weeks is a lifetime when it comes to hospital numbers etc.



  • Posts: 8,532 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]





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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 928 ✭✭✭Butson


    Supposed to be getting married at end of February, 170 invited.

    Not sure what to do. The joys.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,136 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Are you suggesting we should base our policy on the optics? It's a cute idea but not realistic. Based on how the government behaved in the past, how do you honestly think they will behave in the next couple of months?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    That and if they want people to take up the booster. No point if we're still carrying on like its 2020 again.

    Locking down would send all the wrong messages to the public.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,325 ✭✭✭iLikeWaffles


    With this tried and tested **** attitude you can only be sure things will get a lot worse. Those "who" died from it, don't you mean those that are dying from it - this is far from over. Yet the majority of people including those that are making decisions think we're in the clear, we are where we are because the underlining condition or communicated position from those making the decisions has been 'you're okay if you're vaccinated'; not at all the case! Yes it adds more protection... from you know death, but it is not infallible. You can still catch it, you can still spread it, and you may still die. Locking down was never about the healthy it was about protecting the vulnerable. That being the elderly, immunocompromised, hospitals capacity and those who have no choice but to be on the front line - Fire Services, Doctors/Nurses, Garda, Essential Workers to name just some. Another lock down should have already happened and the thing about lockdowns is that when they do happen earlier they do not have to last as long. The number of cases rising so suddenly speaks volumes that a lockdown should have already been in place or at the very least more stringent measures to keep it from getting out of hand, it has, is, and can get more out of hand. The Governments position of laying blame on those who are unvaccinated is the easiest route out of how badly the Government is and has handled things as far as opening up is concerned - to simplify, everything happened way too fast because of lobbyist pressure. Also trivialising it to be the "least deadly in history" doesn't make it any better in fact that position and attitude is why we are where we are - it has been underestimated at every strategic turn so I've little choice but to lump you in with the idiots on social media spreading misinformation and scaremongering with each one of their replies on this one Wibbs. Another lockdown here will not incite the same riots or angry protests to the volume that is being seen all over Europe, it took us 800 years to finally stand up for ourselves and overthrow British rule and we can't even stand with the Farmers, Teachers or anyone else that gets fucked over or ignored daily by the parties that have been in power for far too long. So it is one thing to be blaming people tactically ignoring guidelines and quite another when there is actually no official restrictions in place which does help to lower transmission.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,337 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    My advice would be to call it off





    Nothing to do with covid .....just take your chance and run while you still can 😋



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,136 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Its an incredible sentiment. Ignore the reality because it wouldn't look good? If the situation isn't good then I'd prefer them to act on that reality.

    Having nice optics would be good if the situation is good. If the situation isn't good then it's unlikely to have nice optics, but that's just the reality.

    Well have to see how the situation IS after Christmas and then worry about how it LOOKS.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    You are misinterpreting the point I was making - what do you think the news of a country with nearly it's entire population vaccinated jumping back in to lockdown would do for vaccine programs across Europe? At a time when countries are nearly forcing people to get the jab because of the low take up? This isn't simply about Ireland at this point - we've led the way on vaccination and now we need to display that we can get on with it.


    The situation isn't good because we have a poor excuse for a health service, the numbers themselves are nothing at all to be concerned about given our population size but everyone has their eyes on the ICU figure. If we had a properly structured, resourced and efficiently run health service we would not even be discussing any of this right now.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,291 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Also trivialising it to be the "least deadly in history" doesn't make it any better in fact that position and attitude is why we are where we are - it has been underestimated at every strategic turn so I've little choice but to lump you in with the idiots on social media spreading misinformation and scaremongering with each one of their replies on this one Wibbs

    It's not a trivialisation, it's merely a fact. Name just one pandemic in world history where the death rate was 0.5 to 1%. Name one where those under 50 were remarkably unlikely to die. Name one where children were pretty much entirely unaffected. Name one where the average fatality age was within months of the average longevity. I'll save you the trouble, you can't. I also pointed out that this is a tragedy for those did and are dying. That's not up for debate in my part.

    I am fully behind social distancing, masks and other precautions and have been from the start and continue to keep to those standards today. Ditto for vaccines and protecting the vulnerable. And yes I agree 100% with you that the Irish are among the least likely to directly rebel against authority. We've proven that in the past, as you note with rule from London and then swapped them out for rule from Rome, while laying the blame on both for our ills in the aftermath of both. When we do "rebel" it's more of the tacit snub behind the facade. Add in pandemic fatigue to that. I've certainly seen it in different work environments over the last few months. Some are keeping to the guidelines, but some are really not. I just can't see another lockdown, if it comes, having the same compliance as the first one. We shall see.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Yep its a valid point.

    We go into lockdown and the message across Europe is "look at Ireland and their huge vaccination numbers, whats the point?"

    The alternative is we go in to lockdown and emphasis rightly goes on to our p1ss poor health service with leaders across europe pointing out its nothing to do with vaccines just a p1ss poor health service, but look at the amount of money they spend, hold on a minute didnt we bail these guys out not so long ago etc.

    Its all about optics for the government now and lockdown has the worst possible optics for this government.

    And trust me, thats literally all they are worried about.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,926 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    I doubt FF/FG will actually admit that lockdowns are due to structural issues with the HSE. If they did the implication is lockdowns becoming an annual event.



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