Gerry thornleys starting 15 for next world cup

sxt · 06-11-2021 2:53pm #1

How clueless is this guy?

The back line is Murray, Sexton and lamour and stockdale on the wing, and Zebo in the 23

Really?

Sexton has a slim outside chance even at his age but he will be nearly 40! Murray will not be first choice and Zebo has zero chance of making the squad

Gerry Thornley’s Possible Irish first-choice team for the 2023 World Cup

15 Hugo Keenan

14 Jordan Larmour

13 Garry Ringrose

12 Robbie Henshaw

11 Jacob Stockdale

10 Johnny Sexton

9 Conor Murray

1 Andrew Porter

2 Rónan Kelleher

3 Tadhg Furlong

4 James Ryan

5 Iain Henderson

6 Caelan Doris

7 Josh van der Flier

8 Jack Conan

Bench

16 Dan Sheehan

17 David Kilcoyne

18 Tom O’Toole

19 Ryan Baird

20 Gavin Coombes

21 Craig Casey

22 Joey Carbery

23 Simon Zebo

RichieRich_89 · 06-11-2021 4:46pm

Think I'd go for:

Porter
Herring
Furlong
Ryan
Henderson
O'Mahony
O'Brien
Stander
Murray
Sexton
Zebo
Aki
Henshaw
Earls
Keenan
Kelleher
Kilcoyne
Healy
Beirne
Conan
Gibson-Park
Ross Byrne
David Kearney

I can see SOB getting back into the reckoning and Stander coming out of retirement in time for the next World Cup.

Dubinusa · 06-11-2021 5:51pm

Wtf! Stander Sob?

Dubinusa · 06-11-2021 5:51pm

SOB? See there's no Beirne!

Dubinusa · 06-11-2021 5:56pm

I'd guess

1. Porter

2. Kelleher

3. Furlong

4. Henderson

5. Ryan

6. Beirne

7. Leavy

8 Conan

9. Casey

10. HB

11. Larmour

12. Henshaw

13. Ringer

14. Balacoune

15. Keenan

16. Sheehan

17. EOS

18. TOT

19 Ahern

20. Coombes

21. Doak

22. Healy

23. Conway

pickarooney · 06-11-2021 7:05pm

O'Driscoll must be in consideration. Maybe Tony Ward?

ersatz · 07-11-2021 9:36pm

Hard to see why he would have Stockdale in that lineup, he had an incredible debut season and he's scored a few fabulous tries since but he has not reproduced his breakout form and is not head and shoulders above several others. As for Murray, I really don't see him making it. There have been a few indications that Farrell is moving away from the kind of game that suits Murray and it will be very difficult for him to win the jersey back if JPG keeps up the kind of tempo and variety he showed yesterday. You'd see Conor being useful to close out a tight game but its a long shot that a role like that will get a place in the WC squad.

Blue4u · 08-11-2021 11:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058216712/gerry-thornleys-starting-15-for-next-world-cup

He is not a million miles away from the starting team. I do think the transition from Murray has started so I don't think he will be the starting 9, but Thornley is a huge fan of Murrays so predictable he would pick him. At this stage JGP would replace Murray in that team with Casey on bench. Murray to travel

Stockdale & Larmour are class players just out of form, if they get back into form would they be starters? I think so.

Zebo was brought back to Ireland to play international rugby, otherwise the IRFU wouldn't be paying for him. I would fully expect him to be around the first team and as a bench players can cover multiple positions plus in a tight game he could add the spark to maybe win a game.

I don't see why you would say Thornley is clueless. He is one of the best if not the best rugby writer in Ireland. Met him a few times around games and chatted away and he knows his rugby, a lot more than me(not that hard)

Sexton & Carbery stood beside each other at warm up prior to game, with the amount of tape/support on Carbery you would think he was the 36 year old.

phog · 08-11-2021 11:15am

In every squad like a Lions or W/C Squad they'll be a few surprises both in omissions and inclusions but I'll be shocked if Sexton is in our World Cup squad. We play him for the next 6Ns and then thank him for his services. I know some people will complain about what's behind him but by the time we reach the W/C he'll be too old for the international rugby.

stephen_n · 08-11-2021 11:20am

Age isn’t the relevant criteria. Performance is and the absolute gulf in that was very evident on Saturday. As much as I really hope we are not relying on Sexton at the next world cup. I could see it being the case, far more than Murray being near a match day squad.

aloooof · 08-11-2021 11:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135152#Comment_118135152

Couple of points on this:

"At this stage JGP would replace Murray in that team with Casey on bench. Murray to travel"

I'm not sure we'll take 3 SH's tho; generally we've split the half-backs as 2 9's and 3 10's in the RWC squads. I think it's more likely than not that Casey will have taken Murray's place at Munster by the time the RWC comes around too. Interesting to see how it plays out tho.

"Stockdale & Larmour are class players just out of form, if they get back into form would they be starters? I think so."

I'd disagree here. I think one of them could easily be a starter, but I don't see both, at the moment. In the short-term I suspect it'll be Keenan, plus one of Earls/Conway for their defensive solidity, plus one more.

"Zebo was brought back to Ireland to play international rugby, otherwise the IRFU wouldn't be paying for him."

It was mentioned at the time that Zebo took a fairly reasonable paycut to come back, but ya I would expect him to be in and around squads. I'm looking forward to seeing him back in green, hopefully will get a run out vs Argentina.

Former Former Former · 08-11-2021 11:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135152#Comment_118135152

Zebo was brought back to Ireland to play international rugby, otherwise the IRFU wouldn't be paying for him.

This thing about the IRFU "co-funding" Zebo's contract was PR guff and nothing more, there is nothing to be learned from it in terms of his likelihood of selection, good or bad.

phog · 08-11-2021 12:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135211#Comment_118135211

I've no idea why you bring in the strawman of Murray unless you want a tit for tat provincial battle just because I think a 38 year old who happens to be a Leinster player shouldn't be in our world cup squad, nice try but I'm not biting.

Blue4u · 08-11-2021 12:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135395#Comment_118135395

The first squad after Zebo was brought back to Ireland he is included. I think we can all make an assumption that the IRFU discussed with Farrell etc when they decided to bring him back.

Even looking at it without the co-funding, Zebo can add something to the squad/team that maybe some other players can't and an option off the bench he covers a huge amount of positions plus adds a spark

sydthebeat · 08-11-2021 12:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135704#Comment_118135704

it wasnt the first squad since zebo was back...

https://www.sportsjoe.ie/rugby/no-simon-zebo-or-john-cooney-as-ireland-gather-50-players-for-one-day-camp-236403

Blue4u · 08-11-2021 12:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135317#Comment_118135317

I don't disagree with anything you have said. Joe squad only had 2 9's but will Farrell go the same route? I think Casey will pass Murray for the next WC. The big ?? is Doak, he remind me of Murray and he could jump all of them into the first team if his form continues.

Different opinions of course on some position but I was just talking about Gerrys team. Would it be my starting 15? no.

I can't wait to see Zebo in green again. We need players like him around the squad and team, will give us huge depth.

Blue4u · 08-11-2021 12:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135727#Comment_118135727

Sorry I personally wouldn't count that as a squad, that was just a 1 day event. Hence why I left it out. You are 100% correct so it depends on what is classed as a squad or not.

Podge_irl · 08-11-2021 1:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135624#Comment_118135624

He probably shouldn't be but its becoming increasingly more likely he will be but as things stand that is solely performance based.

Thornley no longer has any special insight into the Ireland squad and its incredibly apparent. He also couldn't analyse his way out of a wet paper bag.

He's basically just taken the current, or very recent, starting 15. I have no idea what our team will be come 2023 but I guarantee you it will have changed more than that from the current squad.

Former Former Former · 08-11-2021 1:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135704#Comment_118135704

I don't disagree, but the "co-funding" thing doesn't mean anything since every other player's provincial contract is co-funded too. And don't forget, Zebo only got a 1-year deal.

If they'd brought him back on a central contract, then that would be a very different discussion.

phog · 08-11-2021 1:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135816#Comment_118135816

I doubt anyone thinks Thornley knows who our W/C squad will actually be, it's a stab at it, nothing more and has lead to some discussion but for you and others who seem to want to argue on performance, where do you see a 38yo getting a performance to be good enough to be included in a Tier 1 nation's W/C squad?

Whatever we think of the pretenders there isn't a hope of Sexton making the squad, it would wrong for him on a personal level, it might even be dangerous for him to be included. Two years of professional rugby is a lifetime of wear and tear when you're his age.

I genuinely can't see him anywhere near the squad.

A2LUE42 · 08-11-2021 1:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118128629#Comment_118128629

Ward, Ah here, don't you mean Dean or Campbell ?

Former Former Former · 08-11-2021 1:40pm

I don't think anyone wants a 38 year old playing at the RWC.

The question is whether 38 year old Johnny Sexton will be better than 28 year old Joey Carbery, 24 year old Harry Byrne or anyone else two years from now.

I'd say it's 50-50 at this point.

Akrasia · 08-11-2021 1:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135888#Comment_118135888

Zebo will be brought as cover for fullback and as an impact player to bring off the bench

I can't see Murray travelling, I'd say It's between Casey and Doke to be backup for JGP unless he hits a bad run of form and gets overtaken in the next couple of years

Sexton won't travel. I just think the likelyhood of him getting an injury in the next 2 years is high and recover periods get longer as people get into their late 30s

The options at 10 are dependent on whether Carbery can find form and stay fit, but if Carbery isn't the starting 10, Its gonna be 3 of the starting 10s for their provinces in 2023, which I think will be Harry Byrne for Leinster (if he can stay injury free), Either Healy or Crowley for Munster, and Carty from Connacht, with a real battle for the starting place between these 3 players (I don't think Billy Burns or Madigan will be in the picture)

Podge_irl · 08-11-2021 1:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135888#Comment_118135888

If you had told me 2 years ago that a 36 year old Sexton would be head and shoulders above every other option at 10 I wouldn't have believed it either yet here we are.

I still lean towards him not being there but the cold reality is that he is currently far and away our best 10.

phog · 08-11-2021 2:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135996#Comment_118135996

Look around you, how many 38 year olds are still playing professional rugby, then count how many 38yos are still playing international rugby.

I know it's wishful thinking from some of you but it's not going to happen, regardless of the quality of who we have available then.

Podge_irl · 08-11-2021 3:00pm

Its not wishful thinking - I don't want to end up in a situation where he is travelling. I don't know how you can say "regardless of the quality of who we have available" though. If he is still playing and still the best then why wouldn't he be there?

Its unusual to have a 36 year old starting 10 also, but that is the situation we are in.

phog · 08-11-2021 3:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118136338#Comment_118136338

This is my last post on this because I don't want the drag the thread to boredom but imho there's no way Sexton is going to capable of playing in the W/C, his body just won't allow it.

We have to live with what we have.

RichieRich_89 · 08-11-2021 3:32pm

The increase in squad numbers makes it more viable to take a 38-year old than it would have otherwise been.

They could have two other 10s in the squad as a very effective reserve force for any other contingencies.

Former Former Former · 08-11-2021 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118136289#Comment_118136289

Look around you, how many other test out-half options do we have?

Like, Sexton is 36 now and the gap between him and Carbery seems actually to be getting wider.

phog · 08-11-2021 5:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118136641#Comment_118136641

That's irrelevant and what's more you know that.

It's beyond bizarre that posters think that a 38yo will be fit and capable of playing in a world cup competition for a Tier 1 nation.

stephen_n · 08-11-2021 5:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118135624#Comment_118135624

Murray is in the discussion via Thornley. It has nothing to do with provincial bias or anything else. It has to do with a player who is 36 now and one who will be 34 in two years time. The contrast being one has competition, who are capable of passing him. The other doesn’t at this point.

Former Former Former · 08-11-2021 6:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137134#Comment_118137134

You're not reading the posts that are upsetting you so much.

NO ONE wants to see Sexton playing at the RWC. Your assumption that this is Leinster cheerleading is a million miles wide of the mark.

If it happens, it'll be depressing that a) we have a geriatric in our most important position and b) none of the other guys turned out to be good enough.

However, just because we don't want it to happen doesn't mean it won't happen. Again, I'd say it's 50-50 that he'll be our best OH in 2023.

Blue4u · 08-11-2021 6:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137476#Comment_118137476

38 is not a geriatric

Paul Smeenus · 08-11-2021 7:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137561#Comment_118137561

It is if he's trying to get pregnant.

#medicalfacts

RichieRich_89 · 08-11-2021 7:15pm

I reckon it'd be best to use the two new extra spots on an extra back five of the pack player and on six halves instead of five.

1s: Porter, Wycherley

2s: Kelleher, Sheehan, Herring

3s: Furlong, Bealham, O'Toole

locks: Ryan, Henderson, Baird, Ahern

6s: Beirne, Doris

7s: van der Flier, Connors

8s: Conan, Coombes

9s: Gibson-Park, Doak, Murray

10s: Sexton, H. Byrne, Healy

11s: Stockdale/Lowe

12s: Aki, Frawley

13: Henshaw, Ringrose

14s: Baloucoune, Conway

15s: Keenan, Zebo/Hansen/Osborne

Blue4u · 08-11-2021 9:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137644#Comment_118137644

Do I have to point out the glaring issue with that statement.

stephen_n · 08-11-2021 10:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138455#Comment_118138455

Don’t even go there!

errlloyd · 09-11-2021 11:01am

The Formula for picking the team for the next world cup effectively goes like this.

The current best 15

Minus 2 players who get injured, lose form, retire earlier than expected or move to France - (replaced by members of the current extended squad)

Plus 2 players who emerge on to the scene, gain form, or qualify by residency - (replacing members of the original 15, or filling empty slots)

The important thing is that all of those players above are basically unknowns at this point, and trying to predict them is a pointless (but fun game).

So here is our starting team against South Africa in 2017, compared with our starting team against Scotland in the World Cup

It's the same in 11 positions. Sean O'Brien and Robbie Henshaw were effectively ruled out through injury. Rob Kearney and Devon Toner were overtaken by better players. The bench is much more dynamic, but in general, the Ireland 15 is unlikely to change dramatically between here and the next world cup.

ljsulster · 09-11-2021 10:37pm

One man who seems to have gone under the radar is Michael Lowry. Will be starting 10 for Ulster after the internationals and is a very talented playmaker. Lowry, h Byrne and sexton are who I think will be at the world cup

Serbian · 10-11-2021 5:47pm

Lowry is clearly a very talented player, but what makes him the starting 10 for Ulster after the internationals? He hasn't started a single game for Ulster this season and has only started at 10 five times in his 51 caps for Ulster.

At 170cm (or 5' 7" in old money), his size is always the thing that will be questioned. Himself and Casey starting together would be a comically small half-back partnership. Devin Toner would probably be taller than Casey sitting on Lowry's shoulders.

Luckycharm · 10-11-2021 5:56pm

Thornleys team basically assumes no one is coming through in the next 2 years. 18 months ago barely anyone had heard of Dan Sheehan or Doak. Osborne and Aherne for example could both be established starters by then. Larmour/Stockdale came through very fast for example the Forward pack that started against NZ in the RWC probally only 3/4 will start on Sat.

1. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 94

2. Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) (capt) 123

3. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster) 40

4. Iain Henderson (Queen’s University/Ulster) 52

5. James Ryan (UCD/Leinster) 22

6. Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster) 63

7. Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster) 22

8. CJ Stander (Shannon/Munster) 37

16-11-2021 11:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118147223#Comment_118147223

Agree on that point, but I think it's more difficult for new players to get enough game time over the coming year plus due to the changes in the URC structure. Previous years, a lot of guys would have got meaningful minutes during these international windows, and then possibly been ready to stake a claim for European rugby if they really shone. That hasn't happened this year, so the odds of guys like Jamie Osborne etc really staking a claim for a place in a European team are much lower.

bilston · 16-11-2021 12:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137711#Comment_118137711

No Gavin Thornbury?

stephen_n · 16-11-2021 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118174137#Comment_118174137

I’m just amazed there’s no Conor O’Brien

alanb92 · 23-12-2021 4:34pm

My stab at what the 2023 squad / order of preference per position might look like. Granted, it would involve Kendellen, Hodnett and Doak playing a lot of rugby over the next 18 months to be any way feasible, but based on their talent / ceiling, I would like to think they will. VDF has been playing superbly, but I would like to see our number 7 be better over the ball - and Kendellen is fantastic in this area. Hodnett looks very adept there too.

The competition in the forward positions in general looks like it will be incredibly strong, I think it will be the best / most physical pack we ever will have had going into a World Cup. Number 10 has been long discussed, but forwards win you matches so hopefully it won't be as big a factor come 2023 as many are making out that it will at the minute. For what it's worth, Crowley is the 10 who has the highest ceiling in my view - whether he gets the chance to prove that between now and then is another question.

Both this World Cup squad and more so the 2027 squad will feature a core of players from the last few u20 teams, where we have had a rare run of 3 extremely strong sides in a row. I reckon Crowley and Ahern's 2020 side would have defended the Grand Slam had Covid not got in the way - and possibly would have won the World Cup. Had 2019's team not had as many injuries / Baird's red card against Aus, they would have also went very close in the World Cup. Indeed they beat the eventual World Champions, France in the 6 nations. 2021's team wasn't as strong as the previous 2, but in Kendellen and Doak, it contained two of the best player's I've seen in a green shirt at that level in recent years - Kendellen probably being the best (nudging Caelan Doris). It is rare to get 2-3 teams of such high quality year after year at that level - but something similar happened with England in the early-mid 2010's and it formed the core of the 2019 World Cup squad. So it bodes very well for our next crop in my opinion.

Podge_irl · 23-12-2021 6:11pm

I can not see Baird getting ahead of either Henderson or Beirne.

UAEguy2020 · 23-12-2021 6:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118366952#Comment_118366952

If Ireland were playing tomorrow or the 6N coming up then yes, a RWC just under 2 years away is impossible to predict at this stage. Even someone as left field as Thomas Ahern might come from nowhere now to being a test starter in 2 years.

Podge_irl · 23-12-2021 6:31pm

Well of course, bolters are inevitable. But Baird has had a decent amount of exposure and has not displayed the kind of physicality or workrate that would get him starting at international level. He is fun to spring from the bench - there is a long way from there to starting international.

UAEguy2020 · 23-12-2021 6:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118367017#Comment_118367017

True he hasnt, right now, that's the point. There is no set timeframe, some take longer than others and 22 is still very young for a SR, he just needs to mature. I agree he is a long way from starting at test level but to say he wont be starting in 2 years time is a bold call to make, right now his aim should be to make the Irish bench and from there try make impact, 2 years time is another discussion.

aloooof · 23-12-2021 9:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118367070#Comment_118367070

“but to say he wont be starting in 2 years time is a bold call to make”

I think you’ve this the wrong way round, tbh. Surely the bolder call is to suggest Baird will get ahead of Beirne or Henderson, even if 2 years is a long time in rugby.

TRC10 · 23-12-2021 9:16pm

Will Addison nailing down the 15 jersey in the next 18 months is the boldest call I've seen in a long time.

Classy player but is nearly always injured and Keenan is one of the most reliable 15s in the game right now and is only adding to his game and getting better.

Gerry thornleys starting 15 for next world cup

Gerry Thornley’s Possible Irish first-choice team for the 2023 World Cup

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