Gerry thornleys starting 15 for next world cup

RichieRich_89

French? He's not solid enough defensively. Definitely not for centre anyway. Maybe some 7s exposure would improve his weak areas.

Stanley 1

Have watched Leicester yday and just finished Quins game, superb matches, very close, a lot of foreign players involved, who because they are not under the shackles of home Intl coaches, play with more freedom.

De Allende has had an easy time at Munster as the back coaches are in conflict with overall plan, which has Murray box kicking at will, proper value has not been returned by De Allende but it ain't his fault, at times when he is able to cut loose, it is all there.

Better to leave Snyman out of conversation.

Point is De Allende is a hugh blocker on centre talent coming through or guys like Healy/Crowley being experimented with outside normal positions, even the great Mike Gibson played where picked, TMK never with complaint.

UAEguy2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118378827#Comment_118378827

The issue is at any other province I'd be confident his weakness' could be worked on, I have little faith Munster will ever get him to the standard he could be at.

alanb92

I think French looked like he’d be best suited on the wing to me, looked great there for Cork Con.

Fair enough if his defense is why he hasn’t got much of a sniff, but when you see Jake Flannery and Calvin Nash not get much of a chance either it makes you wonder. Van Graan has been very cagey in his selections, even in the straightforward URC home games.

Going back to the point of not enough talent being spread around the provinces, I’ve seen a few people mention that Cian Prendergast might well get an Irish call up in 2022 if he keeps his form up. Similar to my point on Timoney, you would wonder if it was Ahern, Deeny etc (who were ahead of him at 20’s level and likely deemed to have a higher ceiling at the time) were moved to Connacht and given the game time Prendergast has had, would they be the ones in the picture for a full call up? I know player development isn’t linear but Prendergast was 3rd choice 2nd row at u20 level and seemingly 3rd choice number 6 (behind SOB and Soroka). By virtue of him playing regularly he has naturally improved - and may now be ahead of the other guys in his development.. but for me it’s wrong that this keeps happening and that the best young players development is effectively hampered by Leinster and Munster deciding that they’re good enough - but in the process effectively hoarding them as 4th / 5th choice in their positions and not having them get a look in for years. A lot of onus is obviously on the player too - they have to initiate / be receptive to the move themselves as much as anyone else, but you would wonder could the IRFU do more.

When you have back row talents such as Penny, Deegan, Kendellen, Hodnett and Connors playing 2nd fiddle at their provinces (granted the latter two have had their injuries but even if fit wouldn’t likely be starters).. Meanwhile you have Prendergast, Oliver, Greg Jones, Marcus Rea, Timoney, Jordi (pre injury) playing regularly, it shows how poorly spread the talent is at present.

I would like to think the IRFU will do what they can to get one of those back row talents to Connacht with Papalii on his way out, but I won’t hold my breath.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381603#Comment_118381603

When you have back row talents such as Penny, Deegan, Kendellen, Hodnett and Connors playing 2nd fiddle at their provinces (granted the latter two have had their injuries but even if fit wouldn’t likely be starters).. Meanwhile you have Prendergast, Oliver, Greg Jones, Marcus Rea, Timoney, Jordi (pre injury) playing regularly, it shows how poorly spread the talent is at present.

There's nothing stopping any of those players from moving if they feel their development is being hindered. And there's nothing stopping another province from making them an offer.

And I agree with you that it's silly that guys like Jones, Rea and Cloete are getting regular games when guys like Penny, Kendellan and Deegan aren't. Billy Burns or Madigan are playing week in week out at Ulster when Crowley or Flannery can't buy a game at Munster. But I feel the IRFU shouldn't be instigating moves between provinces. Of course Leinster will want to keep hold of their best talent, and there's nothing wrong with that. The IRFU shouldn't punish them for producing too many good players. The responsibility should be on the player to grab his own career by the balls, not wait for the IRFU to do it for them. If he feels like his career is being hindered by lack of minutes, then it's up to him to move elsewhere. But if he's happy being 4th choice and doesn't want to leave his cosy D4 bubble to go and make the most of his career, that's on him. And likewise, if Ulster see Crowley as an upgrade on Burns, they should be making him an appealing offer.

alanb92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381732#Comment_118381732

Fair points.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381732#Comment_118381732

if Ulster see Crowley as an upgrade on Burns, they should be making him an appealing offer.

Appealing in what way? They can’t outbid Munster and I doubt very much Munster would willingly let him go.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381933#Comment_118381933

Crowley isn't a prisoner at Munster. He could easily just leave at the end of his contract, and Munster couldn't do anything about that.

Right now Crowley is 3rd choice at Munster. An appealing offer would be Ulster promising him he'll be their starting 10.

aloooof

With Carbery’s injury issues, I can’t see Crowley going anywhere.

Throw in JVG leaving and I’d be very surprised.

UAEguy2020

Crowley is too good a prospect for Munster to let go, Its noticeable how little minutes young Munster players have compared to other provinces so maybe that's where the route problem lies.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381946#Comment_118381946

Right now Crowley is 3rd choice at Munster. An appealing offer would be Ulster promising him he'll be their starting 10.

Why on earth would Ulster promise anything to Munster's third choice?!

dublin49

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381603#Comment_118381603

Totally agree on the spread of talent and would go further and suggest in certain positions like out half it would suit us better if our younger players moved to premiership and French teams to widen the potential choice at international level.Young players should look further than other provinces for opportunities to establish themselves ala Beirne with Scarlets.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382011#Comment_118382011

Beirne went because he had no opportunities here, not by choice. Leinster didn’t offer him a contract due to his injuries and neither did any of the other provinces.

thomond2006

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381732#Comment_118381732

Crowley played 72 minutes in Munster's most recent league game. He was likely to get a game in South Africa before omicron. Yet he can't buy a game?

The players ahead of Crowley are the second choice at Ireland and another young 10.

badabing106

It would be an absolute joke if Murray And sexton lined out at the next world cup . It would be a declaration that they were not serious about winning

UAEguy2020

Whatever about Sexton as he is still playing pretty well less than 2 years out but if we are seriously going into a RWC with a 34 year old past it Conor Murray when we've had Doak and Casey come through in recent times than it really is a gaming indictment. Thankfully I dont think ti will be the case at 9, the big question is 10.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382170#Comment_118382170

Leinster didn't offer a player who would go on to make the Lions as much as a one-year development deal because Leo Cullen judged it was better to hold on to the likes of Nagle. Players are injured all the time and still get offered contracts. James Ryan tore his hamstring off the bone and he didn't get cut.

By far the largest factor in Beirne being cut by Leinster was the coach thinking he wasn't good enough.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382483#Comment_118382483

You know this how? Comparing Ryan to Beirne based on what happened in the last year is pointless. Ryan was fast tracked into the Irish team before even playing for Leinster. Beirne was injured for nearly his entire time in the academy and wasn’t next not near an Irish call up. You’re just making stuff up as usual.

Dubinusa

Leinster bought in Kane Douglas, who was poor, Hayden Trigg who was average and then Fardy, who was brilliant. In that time Beirne was released as was Thornbury. Major mistakes on Leinsters part, imo. The over reliance on Sothern hemisphere players, simply because they're from the southern hemisphere, is strange. There appears to be thinking that somehow a Aussie or a kiwi etc, bolsters the team.

Beirne is now a top player and Thornbury is very good. Another lad, Dowling may become a very good player with Connacht. The brain trust at Leinster have made poor decisions over the years. Just remember the shambles Leinster were when Ross Molony made his debut. Only due to the Euro tournament that year. Molony may not have featured much for a couple of years.

thomond2006

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382814#Comment_118382814

It's ridiculous to expect every single signing to work out. Dud signings happen. Sometimes the player isn't as advertised, sometimes his face doesn't fit, sometimes family/personal life gets in the way.

It's also ridiculous to expect teams won't make some errors in overall squad building, be it letting players go or overcommitting on long term deals. You are building of 60 odd players when you include the academy. Some will, with the benefit of hindsight, turn out not to be worth it. Some players you let go too soon will prove you wrong. In Beirne's case, he had injuries. Thornbury has bounced back to have a good career at Connacht but I wouldn't put him as a big miss by Leinster to be honest. Is he much better than who Leinster have now?

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382814#Comment_118382814

Benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

Kane Douglas barely played for Leinster. He was a dud for a different reason. Triggs was poor enough in his first season but was excellent in his last season.

Thornbury had to go outside of Ireland before he got a shot with Connacht. His injury situation was worse than Beirne’s. Even Connacht weren’t prepared to give him a shot at the point Leinster let him go.

You get a narrow window to impress in the Academy. If you spend that injured, you will probably get let go. As there will always be someone coming behind you. That’s the nature of the development pathway at Leinster. You have to take your shot.

alanb92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382011#Comment_118382011

Given the number of players we are producing at the minute (leading to the vast number of talents not getting game time) you would have to think allowing lads under certain conditions to play abroad has to be considered eventually. If Beirne had stayed at Leinster and spent those 2-3 years getting a game every so often a la Penny and Deegan at the minute you would wonder would he have become near as good a player he is today. I highly suspect not.

Forgive me if this has already been discussed on another thread previously, but would affiliations with clubs in England and/or France be in any way realistic? I know a partnership with London Irish has been mentioned by some before.

Another question, do we feel that the AIL is at a decent enough level for these lads to develop / test themselves from the age of 20-22 if they aren’t getting a look in at their provinces, as is happening with a lot of them at the minute?

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382776#Comment_118382776

I'm making the point that if a player is judged to have enough quality, coaches and teams will stick by them through injury.

Beirne was injured a lot while he was in the academy, but had a relatively injury-free 2015/'16 on his first senior deal. But Cullen only gave him 4 appearances off the bench, totalling 35 minutes, and decided to cut him and bring in Ian Nagle instead. He thought a future Lion wasn't even worth a one-year development deal. Those are the facts.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118383040#Comment_118383040

No one would have pegged Beirne as a future lion. Even this time last year he wouldn’t have been in the conversation. That’s just pure and simple revisionism.

Beirne managed to play 12 games in 3 years with Leinster. That’s not much of a shop window. From what I remember he wasn’t injury free in 2015-16 either. He just didn’t have as many big injuries that season as the previous years.

Former Former Former

Meh. Even if you say letting Beirne go was a grievous error, that's the end of the conversation really. If that's the extent of players who've slipped the net, then I think the provinces are doing OK.

Can remember BOD saying on OTB a good while back, long before the Lions even, that they overlapped a bit at Leinster so he'd have seen him in training and nobody really could foresee Beirne turning into the player he is today. He was absolutely plagued by injuries and was on the cusp of retirement until Scarlets came along.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118382008#Comment_118382008

Because maybe they feel he's an upgrade on what they have. But you're missing the point. I'm not saying he is or he isn't. Crowley was just an example of a player who hypothetically could maximise his growth by moving from Munster. He was the standout player for the u20s nearly 2 years ago now but he's only started 1 game for Munster, which is ludicrous.

I could have used Penny or Deegan as an example either. Deegan is 3rd choice at Leinster but he'd be a great signing for Connacht. Likewise with Penny.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118383069#Comment_118383069

Fine. Forget about the Lions. Cullen didn't think a player who has gone on to win 25 caps for Ireland was worth an 18,000 euro one-year development contract. The point is there was a significant misjudgment when it came to assessing Beirne's talent.

Shop window? Shop window for who? The coach gets to see him in training too. You say 12 games in three years. Are you counting A games? I thought he had 4 Leinster appearances. Anyway, I'm sure he'd have picked himself more if that's how it worked.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118384511#Comment_118384511

A player who went on to have 25 Irish caps after his significant injury record changed. yes I’m including A games.

it’s easy with the benefit of hindsight to say he got it wrong. Maybe he did but if he did, it’s an absolute rarity.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118384529#Comment_118384529

Well, there's Thornbury, I suppose.

There could be an element of survivor bias in your analysis of the situation, because most players in Beirne's shoes at the stage he learned he wasn't going to be offered a Leinster deal would probably have felt they had given pro rugby a shot and it was time to try other things in life.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118384579#Comment_118384579

Most would alright, Thornbury had given up on professional rugby. Before coming back and getting a chance with Connacht.

You were right to point out earlier that Beirne didn’t get many chances in 2015/16. Do you think that what he was showing in training when he was fit, had nothing to do with that? Cullen has proven very willing to give young players a chance if they earn it. So maybe just maybe Beirne wasn’t showing any signs of what he would become. Maybe having to move away changed his attitude. There are a lot of players going through the Leinster academy. Beirne is the only one so far that has gone on to be a regular starting Irish International. Timoney may get there too, who knows. But that’s a tiny percentage compared to the talent we have developed and retained.

sydthebeat

Beirne was perma injured during his time at leinster, including a 14 month break due to a groin injury. His moving to Wales had absolutely nothing to do with him "not getting a chance" at leinster.

salmocab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118385069#Comment_118385069

I think sometimes players just shine in a different set up, if he had stayed at Leinster he might not of been the player he is for various reasons. He may have turned out better of course but I think the stating of fact that certain players being let go was a big mistake is just people looking at the final product and not allowing for the manufacturing process.

AbusesToilets

Folks are also kind of ignoring that Beirne did not play well when he came back from the Scarlets. He didn't do great for Munster, and was genuinely poor for Ireland.

clsmooth

I’d suggest if Beirne and Thornbury had stayed with Leinster they wouldn’t be the players they became. A fresh start and game time brought them on heaps and bounds as did an injury free run. They were unlikely to get that run of games with the likes of Toner, Fardy and Ryan ahead of them.

Interestingly, maybe if the likes of Adam Byrne had left Leinster and got a few seasons of game time injury free he might of been the next Tommy Bowe. Or he could have ended up like Cian Kelleher.

It’s very hard to predict how a players career will develop. It’s a mixture of talent, hard work and large dollops of luck (avoiding or taking advantage of someone else’s injury or just being in the right team under the right coach at the right time). The unpredictability is what makes sport great.

salmocab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118405145#Comment_118405145

Agreed this nonsense of X made a mistake letting Y go is silly, far too many variables to know if it’s true and is generally used a stick to beat a coach or a club with when it’s at best unprovable. It’s just lazy opinion.

connachta

The only error made in the past 10 years was Henshaw gone in a poor Dublin province. We would be favorite to win RWC with a Akishaw centre pairing used to play together.

Kidding (half-kidding)

Patrick Brown

Ulster fan chipping in on the Addison question. He's very dangerous going forward, but I'd still have Keenan ahead of him for Ireland for his reliability under the high ball and as a covering defender. And I'd have Mike Lowry ahead of him for Ulster even if he was fit. I'd love to see Lowry starring for Ireland, but I'm pretty much resigned to him being a local hero like Cooney or McCloskey.

The most likely Ulster players to graduate to playing major roles for Ireland are Nick Timoney and James Hume. There's a lot of competition in the back row, but if Timoney keeps going the way he's going it'll be hard to keep him out, and I'd expect Hume to be challenging Ringrose for game time. He and McCloskey are a wonderful centre pairing, but McCloskey has Henshaw and Aki ahead of him and he'll be over 30 by the time of the world cup, so much as I'd love to see him go, I don't really expect him to. Baloucoune is a talent, and if he gets a decent run of fitness he'll be in contention. Stockdale has the talent to potentially get himself back into contention.

On the perennial halfbacks question. Sexton is still Ireland's best 10, but these days he gets injured every other game. I doubt he'll be fit enough to go to the world cup. The only credible alternative at the moment is Jack Carty, with Joey Carbery only an outside possibility on fitness grounds. Billy Burns and Ross Byrne have had their chances and don't look up to it, and it's probably too soon for the likes of Harry Byrne, Healy and Crowley, unless one of them has a barnstorming breakthrough run with their province this season or next. If I was running Ireland, I'd be looking to phase Sexton out in favour of Carty, with an eye to Carty being first choice at the world cup.

And if I was running Ireland, my scrum halves would be Cooney, Blade and McGrath, but the Ireland set-up clearly don't like the same kind of scrum halves I do. They're clearly phasing out Murray and backing Gibson-Park. Doak has a bright future and looks to me to have more about him than Casey, but he's a control freak like Cooney so I expect it won't be until Sexton's definitely out of the picture before he gets his chance with Ireland. Only room for one control freak in Ireland's halfback division.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118404932#Comment_118404932

I think this is a harsh assessment, tbh. Iirc, he got MOTM vs Leinster and twice vs Exeter in his first half season or so at Munster. It was largely off the back of those performances that he got his first start for Ireland, in that infamous game vs Wales, but absolutely nobody was good that day.

He’s since kicked on again to another level since, mind.

RichieRich_89

They could cover having Sexton in the World Cup squad by taking 5 flyhalves, say Sexton, Carty, H. Byrne, Frawley and Carbery - The last two going as a 12 and as a 15, respectively.

Lost Ormond

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058027706/predict-irish-xxiii-for-2023-rwc

Thread and link to previous threads of peoples predictions of 23 man squad for previous world cups for anyone interested.

Zeugnis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118406827#Comment_118406827

Not an insane idea, but unless one of Aki, Hernshaw and Ringrose is injured, Frawley is probably blocked. It remains to be seen whether Harry Byrne gets the game time to be a meaningful part of this equation. And on past performance, injury may save selectors from the Carbery part of the dilemma.

Zeugnis

Seems a bit out there now, given he's uncapped, but the more I see of Cian Prendergast, the more I like him. There's something to be said for young flankers, see Underhill and Curry. This six nations is too soon for him, but come 2023 he may be knocking on the door a lot more loudly.

Should he progress his difficulty is that both Doris and Coombes can play six/eight, and Beirne is a six/lock who must be in the 23. So breaking through as a blind side is a tough ask, bus this is the fantasy rugby thread, so I'm indulging myself :)

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118413373#Comment_118413373

I can see Prendergast being one of Farrell's "development players" in the 6N squad, along with McIlroy perhaps.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118406932#Comment_118406932

Lol, that thread is about four posts of predictions and six pages of why McCloskey should be moved to flanker.

Less than two years out, I think we're looking at something very close to the XV which played in November. I think the big spots up for grabs are on the wings and who partners Henshaw.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118413373#Comment_118413373

There's probably room for 10 locks/backrowers in a 33-man squad.

At the moment I'd be thinking:

locks: 4 from Henderson, Ryan, Beirne, Baird, Ahern

sixes: 2 from Doris, Beirne, O'Mahony, Prendergast

sevens: 2 from van der Flier, Connors, O'Mahony, Timoney

eights: 2 from Conan, Coombes, Doris

Beirne going as a second row would help Prendergast's case greatly.

Can anyone else break into the reckoning? Deegan, Penny and McCann are possibles, but it's not looking very likely for them at the moment.

Jump_In_Jack

Every time I've seen Niall Murray play I've thought he looks like an international. I'd have him in the training camp at least, with a view to taking Dillane's spot going forward.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118414705#Comment_118414705

If Kendellan gets the game time (and that's a big 'if', as he's at for Munster) I think he could break in. I think he has world class potential.

Deegan and Penny need a move if they're to have any chance.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118415599#Comment_118415599

Kendellan, who started the very last game? Munster promoted 9 guys from the academy last season. 8 of them have had gametime this season. You know all this but you keep banging that drum.

Zeugnis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118415599#Comment_118415599

Fully agree regarding Kendellan's potential, but like Penny it appears he's not going to get the minutes. Deegan is the only one who looks like getting a decent run for now.

Injury could change all that. Look at Tom Ahern: today we hear that Jenkins and Kleyn are injured, and suddenly his path is unblocked. Could be a short window but a chance to stake a claim nonetheless.