Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight · 28-10-2021 1:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118082746#Comment_118082746

Also UK scientists are being “frozen out” of the £80bn EU research programme Horizon Europe because of the ongoing dispute over the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol. Some fishing won't provide world class jobs or stop any brain drain.

UK is out of Galileo, and lost contracts on Copernicus earth observation satellites. Still hasn't confirmed participation in Copernicus going forward. The big wins for the US in putting a man on the moon were better computers and components, better quality control and project management. It's not just the research, it's the value added.

Peregrinus · 28-10-2021 2:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118082820#Comment_118082820

It's a dispute about the UK-EU TCA. The French argue that their fishermen are being refused licences that, under the terms of the TCA, the UK is supposed to grant them. Frost's brief as a Cabinet Office minister includes oversight of the implementation of TCA as well as of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Ironic that it's Frost who is complaining that the French measures are not compatible with TCA obligations and "wider international law". There's a serious point to be made there, but Frost lacks any credibility to make it, and his attempts to do so will be drowned in derision. The UK seriously needs to take a look at the calibre of the people it is putting forward to represent it and advance its interests internationally.

pixelburp · 28-10-2021 8:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083322#Comment_118083322

So does this have a result for GPS systems in the UK? If so is there a backup or some way to avoid the country's Garmins shrugging their collective shoulders?

fash · 28-10-2021 8:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083565#Comment_118083565

Isn't GPS the American system and in any case uses non military precision - when what is at issue is unrestricted access to the military precision data?

Akrasia · 28-10-2021 8:34am

GPS isn't encrypted but this means it is vulnerable to 'spoofing' so it is fine for the likes of personal navigation and Internet of things, but you wouldn't want an airliner or military mission to be relying on this as bad actors could jam or spoof the signal pretty easily

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gps-is-easy-to-hack-and-the-u-s-has-no-backup/

One of the main benefits of Galileo is that it has an encrypted version that is more secure and less vulnerable. The other is that global navigation and time keeping are critical infrastructure that you don't want to become locked out of if international relations turn frosty

ancapailldorcha · 28-10-2021 8:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083286#Comment_118083286

To be fair, much manufacturing was always going to either disappear, be automated or just relocated to other countries but there was nothing stopping successive governments investing in high tech manufacturing which is still a sector in the UK. I think the fact that the UK lost out on the Intel superconductor plant over Brexit is devastating and it's a disgrace that Johnson has not been called out for it.

Peregrinus · 28-10-2021 8:40am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083565#Comment_118083565

I don't think there's any danger of this. The UK's withdrawal from Galileo means that the UK will have very limited - or zero - involvement in designing, consructing, owning, operating the Galileo service. But they can use it as a customer just like anyone else.

But . . .

Part of the Galileo service - the encrypted part designed to guide missiles and plan military operations - only offiers limited availability to regular customers; full availability is offered just to the defence, security and emergency response services of member states. Which, of course, no longer includes the UK. The rival service, the US-operated GPS, also has an encrypted part to which the UK only has restricted access.

The UK's response to that was going to be "we'll build our own!". In 2018 they announced that they would develop and implement a free-standing UK " Global Navigation Satellite System" (GNSS). This was seen at the time as "bold and expensive"; the total cost was projected to be between £3 billion and £5 billion. To kick off, they awarded £90 million worth of contracts for studies of the satellite and ground system technologies needed to develop an independent service, and to procure some parts of the system, and spent £400 million buying a 45% stake in the (bankrupt) OneWeb satellite company and its network of low earth orbit satellites.

But it was not to be. Citing pressure on public finances resulting from the Coronavirus Pandemic (and in no way connected with any alleged adverse economic impact of Brexit, no sir, and if you repeat such a suggestion you'll be hearing from my lawyers) the UK Treasury has now regretfully concluded that the GNSS project is now unaffordable. By an amazing and very fortunate coincidence the UK Department of Defence has, at more or less the same time, realised that the UK doesn't really need its own encrypted satellite navigation capacity after all, and they are going to explore "innovative alternatives" to satellite navigation systems for tracking and guiding their ships, planes, submarines and cruise missiles. They are looking at options which could supplement, rather than replace, the limited encrypted service they can get from Galileo and GPS. They have awarded (this time, much more modest) contracts to identify possibilities that seem deserving of investigation.

Sam Russell · 28-10-2021 9:47am

If only Britain could produce another John Harrison, born in the West Riding of Yorkshire. Despite being a Northerner, and a Yorkshire, he solved the most pressing problem of his day - the Longitude Problem - which was equivalent to GPS of today. He was a carpenter who amused himself repairing clocks. He built the first marine chronometer.

Of course, the Gov bounty for solving the Longitude problem was denied to him, probably because he was a Northerner, but he was eventually recognised.

Now they have a history of giving away or abandoning their inventions. The code breaking work of Bletchley Park was shredded at the end of WW II, despite it being hugely valuable in the development of computers. The had three different but successful V bombers for delivering their A bombs - all work just stopped and they settled for USA options. All their technical lead in fighter aircraft just frittered away - TSR2 just cancelled, which had a severe impact on the Concorde project - again just abandoned.

Long history - all explained by a severe problem with balance of payments, dodgy currency, and lack of exports, plus over spending domestically. They were broke. Add in their two party system of feuding politics that could not agree with any national plan to get out of the cycle of boom and bust, and strikes and anti-trade union legislation to combat those strikes. All it needed was sound economic governance accepted by both parties.

Well, they are where they are. An very expensive aircraft carrier, paid for by the UK, currently in the South China Sea, carrying a detachment of USAF aircraft and USAF pilots and crew - enforcing the British influence in the region. Of course, they are currently picking a fight with a major power in that region - that should help.

How far they have fallen - a bit like the man who jumped off the Empire State building and was heard to shout as he passed the tenth floor - 'All OK so far!'

storker · 28-10-2021 10:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083902#Comment_118083902

Tony Benn called the Falklands War "The last kick of a dying empire" but I'd say that description is more aptly applied to Brexit, which Benn didn't live to see.

ancapailldorcha · 28-10-2021 10:19am

As an aside, one day in London before the pandemic I made the journey by boat through the Thames to Greenwich Park & the Observatory. I managed to blag a discount as I work in medical research for a university. Honestly, it's the most wonderful day out. I'd only heard about John Harrison from Only Fools & Horses but all of his timepieces and inventions are there and it's just fantastic. I wasn't expecting that at all.

There's a really good Watches & Timepieces forum on this site if you're interested:

https://www.boards.ie/categories/watches-timepieces

Sam Russell · 28-10-2021 10:31am

John Harrison was only mentioned as an example of selective honours given to the worthy, while the rougher part of society were ridiculed unfairly. You could add Alan Turing to that list.

Adding to the list of British advances being flung aside, it would include the Harrier jump jet that could be considered to add the flexibility of the helicopter with the capability of a fighter aircraft. The British knew the value of the Spitfire, but not the Harrier. They also had the English Electric Lightening, which could take off and immediately climb vertically at the speed of sound. Unfortunately its reliability left a lot to be desired, plus its ability to fly at subsonic speeds meant its range was severely limited. At the time it was deployed, the Russian Bear bombers were all subsonic, and they left the lightening with a large problem trying to shadow them over the North Sea.

Still, it will be a while before the current Gov can fund any real advances in science.

ancapailldorcha · 28-10-2021 11:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084103#Comment_118084103

I don't think it's just about funding. Modern technology is much more intricate and complex than before and is only going to get more so as AI advances. Innovation is now about solving global problems so erecting trade barriers and embracing xenophobic nationalism just mean that talent and investment may just go elsewhere.

Igotadose · 28-10-2021 11:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084249#Comment_118084249

Case in point, the recent Covid vaccine effort. I thought I saw somewhere that nearly 100 countries were involved

yagan · 28-10-2021 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083902#Comment_118083902

Mostly it's because it was going broke with the loss of Empire.

After WWII half the Royal Navy's fuel came from Iran alone, so as such places fought for more return for their assets Britain had to reign in its spending. Suez was confirmation that the nation could no longer afford its fantasies.

All the way through the ruling class preserved their wealth whilst detracting blame on others like immigrants, communists, women etc...

Sam Russell · 28-10-2021 11:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084249#Comment_118084249

It is not just about funding. It is about talent, and the climate for turning talent into innovation.

Brexit robs the UK of much that is needed for a Silicon Valley type business structure. The proposers of Brexit look not for Silicon Valley as their example, but Singapore on Thames. A type of economy built on arbitrage and disaster capitalism.

ambro25 · 28-10-2021 1:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073497#Comment_118073497

These retaliatory measures are now set to start next Tuesday, 02 November, unless the UK grants the balance of fishing licenses to which it agreed contractually by that deadline.

This is not a good development: the timescale looks too tight for Johnson & Frost to manoeuvre this away by the deadline and, as France just seized a ‘British’ fishing trawler operating in its waters without a license today, they don’t have a quiet room to do that manoeuvring either.

Sam Russell · 28-10-2021 1:27pm

I think Johnson's oven ready turkey is coming home in time for Christmas. This will unseat the NI Protocol as the No. 1 issue facing the Brexit cabal in his cabinet.

As has been pointed out for some time, the NI Protocol will be played out in France, with Dover getting a bit part or should that be a bitter part.

Of course fish is a big issue, coupled with electricity, which is rising in the contention stakes.

Next year is election time for Macron.

Professor Moriarty · 28-10-2021 1:45pm

The OBR, a financial advisory board to the UK government, said yesterday that the long term effect of Brexit will be far worse than the impact of Covid.

Strazdas · 28-10-2021 1:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084022#Comment_118084022

Goodness knows how historians will assess Brexit. Arguably much worse than the Suez Crisis (or the self inflicted Irish financial crash of 2008-12). They've almost certainly voted to hobble themselves and all on the back of something as ridiculous as an advisory referendum of dubious legal standing.

Sam Russell · 28-10-2021 2:01pm

Well, there was no (dubious or otherwise) referendum on the Suez expedition. There were few referendums in UK history. They do not believe in asking the people. They are quite happy (well the victors are) to have a ruling Gov formed by a single party with less than 45% of the popular vote - but not just occasionally but every time - since 1932.

Their belief in democracy is deep - but misplaced.

28-10-2021 2:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084979#Comment_118084979

It's simply a consequence of inventing a new red line and shooting down very generous proposals before they had even been proffered. Why would France not do this if it sees that the UK wants a fight regardless. It's not like it could possibly damage progress anywhere else.

Akrasia · 28-10-2021 2:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083642#Comment_118083642

Nice post

What is not at all worrying, is that the Johnson government will likely keep their Trident nuclear program going, but are skimping on the ability to guide those missiles, or even accurately measure where their submarines are in relation to contested borders with foreign adversaries

What cuts are they making to the safety of these other systems that aren't being announced? During the decline of the soviet union, there are lots of horror stories about lethal chemical and biological weapons being discarded in shallow and wholely unsuitable holes in the ground, and nuclear missiles being left unguarded and having security systems switched off for lack of maintenance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soviet-unions-fall-led-alarming-003000640.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAD2CXr86IMGt7LDltbXWK1tvvSTmB6WCYwBSSly_tBlt9BWcmEftm30VDMv_yNvJVU6dR_2NggtYBKefraWNhiFVcyAY8GA2Tf793yjXgZQUKXbh0u33di_7-l_hM7kfBbJ8xDmR5qg4iC60JXvXW7lkXT0claJ2Hc_eZfx-kqV_

When once great military powers go into decline, they first spend huge resources pretending that they're still powerful, even bluffing that they're getting more and more powerful, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/15/cap-on-trident-nuclear-warhead-stockpile-to-rise-by-more-than-40 and then they quickly collapse when they can no longer maintain such an expensive facade anymore.

Johnson announcing an increase in Trident warheads this March, this, along with an admission that they cannot afford the means to defend and guide them to their intended destination is a worrying sign, existing nuclear infrastructure needs to be maintained, and upgraded over time. These become very expensive problems indeed. Johnson allowing raw sewage to be pumped into the UK waterways might seem like nothing compared to the danger of breached nuclear waste containment facilities if necessary investments are delayed in favour of grand populist expensive wasteful posturing

ambro25 · 28-10-2021 2:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084979#Comment_118084979

I’ve warned about Macron’s upcoming electoral posturing before, and that was considered duly in the light of his consistent “bad Brexit cop act” throughout the WA & TCA negotiations.

I can’t see France backtracking on that 02 November threat, by reason of same.

So the burning question is whether the UK will backtrack itself (never mind by the deadline), given Frost’s intent of the past few months, his direct messaging about these threats, and British papers and media are drumming the seized British trawler story. I can’t see it either.

Fish (well, the FR/UK jostling over fishing rights) isn’t a big issue in France, nowhere near the scope of popular awareness as it does in the UK. But Macron will absolutely not want to give LePen, Zemmour, Barnier et al a stick to beat him with, by not making good on the threat.

peter kern · 28-10-2021 2:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084920#Comment_118084920

at the end of the day this is all bread and games stuff employed by the 2 sites

very childish or populistic however you want to see it

on one hand its maybe good to use the same tactics the brits use, on the other hand playing games everybody is losing and the only people that win are the countries that like the fact that europe destabilises itself.

as an aside and not a reply to quoted post , do we really need to talk about the british election system and the british culture every 3 or so pages... it does become rather tiresome.

Sam Russell · 28-10-2021 2:40pm

The British voting system is the prism through which British politics should be viewed. There is no voting for the House of Lords, who are hereditary or are political appointed holders. The other house is voted by a system that is unrepresentative of the popular vote.

The consequence of this is that the regimes formed are all majoritarian in nature - winner takes all.

That is Brexit - no consultation between May or Johnson with any opposition party. That is typical of all British Governments for the last 50 years so no surprise. This is why the British electoral system is relevant for Brexit.

What contribution has Keir Starmer or Corbyn made to British policy on any matter?

An Ciarraioch · 28-10-2021 2:53pm

The UK has finally integrated into the EU Covid Cert system, long after countries such as Israel and Morocco did so:

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1453692326732255236

An Ciarraioch · 28-10-2021 3:06pm

Interestingly, where the last NI poll had a narrow majority against the Protocol, now a net majority of 11% favour it:

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619161180033024

Also want Stormont to retain the measure in 2024, and disapprove of Article 16 being triggered:

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619181090492417

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619184399753217

Finally, opinions on the various actors in the process:

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1453619175554011140

Strazdas · 28-10-2021 3:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085217#Comment_118085217

It strikes me that their rigid FPTP system coupled with an advisory referendum was a disastrous mix. Every other country in Europe is used to the idea of compromise and consensus and the need to have everyone on board. A tight referendum result alongside their FPTP system ('we won, you lost, get over it pal') was only ever going to lead to bitter division.

ambro25 · 28-10-2021 3:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085352#Comment_118085352

Well, that burning question got answered surprisingly quick!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-59077644

“Downing Street said the UK fully supported the way Jersey and Guernsey were handling the issue, which was "entirely in line" with the provisions of Britain's trade deal with the EU”

ancapailldorcha · 28-10-2021 4:01pm

So, Britain backs down again and Macron gets the win he was fishing for. Typical.

ambro25 · 28-10-2021 4:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086060#Comment_118086060

Well, technically, Jersey & Guernsey backed down, not Britain (i.e. Johnson / Frost)…which is how Downing Street can conveniently save face and message out, that it was always thus. Naked opportunism of course, and one has to wonder how many Downing Street phone calls to Jersey it took.

I still think we’ll see more of this, though. The pattern is setting, I think Macron will have at that missing £54m in border enforcement budget again before long.

pixelburp · 28-10-2021 4:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085846#Comment_118085846

Were those polled also questioned on their political allegiances? Cos that's the element I'd be most curious about and could paint the figures in a more contextual light; with my worry that Unionists/Loyalists still form a critical mass in those rowing behind the DUP/UUP in that 32% who Strongly Disagree the Protocol is a good thing. Trust across all NI parties reads pretty low, but then I'd doubt someone polled in West Belfast would have kept much stock in the DUP's stance to behind with...

murphaph · 28-10-2021 4:47pm

Fair play to the French. We should stand by them. They were patient enough with the UK.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-10-2021 5:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083642#Comment_118083642

The UK's response to that was going to be "we'll build our own!"

The French Exocet missiles reportedly had a kill switch so they wouldn't attack French naval vessels. Them fitting one to a UK satellite is not beyond the bounds of possibility. Same goes for every other foreign launch option.

This big lipstick looks like something out of Austin Powers or Thunderbirds, but 50 years ago it was the UK's first satellite launcher and cancelled. Today South Korea is debugging their own satellite launch vehicle and planning to send landers to the moon. By not investing the UK isn't standing still, it's missing out on opportunities . Yes the UK is still in ESA but Belgium and Switzerland together contribute more. Brexit isn't the first time the UK has trashed it's own space capabilities.

In short there isn't much of a civilian market for a UK navigation system when half the world's population already have access to six of them. There probably isn't a military market for the same reasons so the UK would have to fund it by itself and if that involves developing launch capability again don't hold your breath, even if there is political will to do it.

Technical stuff below.

=====================================================================

For general navigation you can use GPS (USA).

You can use differential GPS to improve accuracy to a few cm over several hundred km by comparing the signals received from another receiver at known fixed location. Despite this others have spent billions setting up their own global systems GLONASS (Russia), BIEDOU (China) and GALILEO (EU) for reasons.

On top of that India (IRNSS) and Japan (QZSS) have their own regional systems covering their areas of interest (and China, everybody's area of interest). Thailand, Indonesian and Oz all have memorandums with the Japanese government. So don't expect much cost-sharing for the UK from them or indeed any Africa/Pacific countries worried about China.

Yes you can pickup the signal in Helsinki but it's not as accurate.

Lots of talk about using LEO satellites but you'd need to track them more often which means you need a lot of ground stations. Technically the UK could reproduce the French DORIS system to get LEO satellites to self navigate as they have world wide bases but it takes too long to determine the exact trajectories. Inertial guidance systems work and they are getting better but everyone else is still launching satellites. And Brexit means a lot of talent will go back home. cf. Bezos loosing a lot of good engineers.

breezy1985 · 28-10-2021 5:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086033#Comment_118086033

Ha suddenly it's Jersey and not the UK.

A bit like that time "Canada's" Greg Rudzetski got caught with drugs

An Ciarraioch · 28-10-2021 9:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086096#Comment_118086096

More that Jersey has a long-standing policy of regular discussions with the regional government in Normandy, the aim being to sort out issues at local level, without London or Paris intervening.

An Ciarraioch · 28-10-2021 9:09pm

Meanwhile, Westminster has established an Article 16 committee, to discuss when and whether to trigger the provision:

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-uk-readying-for-major-clash-with-eu-as-it-convenes-committee-to-look-at-fallout-from-triggering-article-16-and-suspending-northern-ireland-cooperation-12453512

kowloon · 29-10-2021 12:41am

Why would they want to trigger A16 before Christmas> Don't they risk making things worse at the time of the year that would have the greatest fallout?

Akrasia · 29-10-2021 1:07am

If they were good at long term planning they wouldn't have voted for brexit

29-10-2021 1:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088187#Comment_118088187

They'd have something new to blame for what might be bad anyway.

FrancieBrady · 29-10-2021 1:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118087441#Comment_118087441

Posturing and trying some pretty weak brinkmanship.

ancapailldorcha · 29-10-2021 8:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088187#Comment_118088187

I can't see them actually doing it. Actually increasing the chances of turkey being replaced by nothing is probably the stupidest thing they could do after the fiasco of last year.

Leroy42 · 29-10-2021 9:45am

Triggering A16 doesn’t stop anything, it merely places a hold on some particular aspects of the deal until a resolution can be found.

it is being sold in the UK media, willingly abetted by the government, as a way to cancel the entire deal.

but as the EU resolved many of the on the ground issues recently, Art 16 won’t have too much of an impact on day to day.

and it does nothing to deal with the issues that GB is facing

Akrasia · 29-10-2021 9:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088723#Comment_118088723

Even though that's all true, triggering It would be a declaration of war against the EU

A massive middle finger to the good Friday agreement and whatever shred of goodwill left would be shattered in one fell swoop

ancapailldorcha · 29-10-2021 10:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088744#Comment_118088744

It seems to be perceived here in the press as the "Press here to own the EU" button. The problem with that message is that it begs the question of why Johnson doesn't press it. Of course, we know better and that hitting it starts a series of escalations the result of which will be worse for the UK. As we've seen, Emmanuel Macron has an upcoming an election so he could do with a bit of owning the Brits so now is a poor time for Johnson's games. The treaty has been signed and ratified. It will not be renegotiated just because the DUP are upset and the Tories have exhausted their culture war trope.

Quin_Dub · 29-10-2021 12:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088826#Comment_118088826

They are indeed rapidly running out of road to divert people on.

Macron will want to play hardball as you say , Covid as an excuse is dwindling and try as they might people can see through the "Global Supply chain" storyline - Yes everyone is impacted , but there are only queues on the streets in one Country.

Hard to know who they'll try to make the fall-guy when the hits are going to keep on coming with greater frequency and severity over the coming weeks and months.

Strazdas · 29-10-2021 1:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088238#Comment_118088238

The fisheries dispute is barely even being reported by the French media. It shows you just how desperate the Brexiteers are : relying on stage managed stunts and threats of trade wars in order to try and keep their sham of a government popular.

ancapailldorcha · 29-10-2021 2:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089607#Comment_118089607

The fall guys are already in place. We've already seen Cummings and Hancock take a walk when things got too hot for Johnson. The issue is this desperate need to distract the public from the consequences of the government's catastrophic mismanagement of a self-imposed recession.

An Ciarraioch · 29-10-2021 2:04pm

Interesting long read from a UK civil servant on why she resigned over issues in trying to promote Brexit in the US:

https://tnsr.org/2021/10/should-i-stay-or-should-i-go-the-dilemma-of-a-conflicted-civil-servant/?fbclid=IwAR07LQ9IdQxffuS3BL7lp5FE7RPQ_EvE_KZ-0z42sEghje0vRf77_A3eYNw

storker · 29-10-2021 3:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089607#Comment_118089607

@Quin_Dub "Hard to know who they'll try to make the fall-guy when the hits are going to keep on coming with greater frequency and severity over the coming weeks and months."

Oh I'm not so sure. I think they have a long menu to choose from, including Traitorous Remainers in a they-should-have-got-behind-Brexit sauce, followed by a main course of "EU punishment" which despite being overcooked still goes down well on the sceptred isle, and for dessert a Blame-the-Immigrants Eton Mess because well, you've got to, haven't you.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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