The coming conflict over Taiwan

Wallace got elected in my constituency, it's embarrassing but I lay the blame on the idiots who voted for him, mainly around his base in Wexford I assume. You get what you voted for.

He's a useful fool for somebody.

In a hot conventional war, with nerves frayed and cyber attacks presumably targeting computer systems, I see a nuclear launch as almost guaranteed, albeit unintended.

Along with plenty of failsafes in place to destroy or deactivate the warhead before it goes too far. Sure, there's a risk, but I'm not terribly concerned by it. I'd be more concerned with N.Korea than China in terms of using nukes. People ruled by ideology aren't reliable.

It's also true that China has not cultivated a trustworthy reputation on which to build alliances - but I think Iran and N Korea in particular would have nothing to lose by joining with China, and that immediately risks sparking a massive conflagration in the Middle East / North Africa that I think India and Pakistan could stumble into, stretching America too thin to manage in the Pacific and the Gulf simultaneously, assuming the Russians don't try to take advantage in the Caucuses, Baltic or Ukraine (which hopefully they won't - while not an admirer of Putin, I respect him as a thoughtful moderate, by Russian standards).

Iran would lose everything by doing so. Right now, there is extremely little support for a US led invasion of Iran. Regardless of the US rhetoric, few people truly consider Iran a threat, beyond their support of terrorist organisations. In addition, Iran has assumed a position of a leader for the Muslim world, and China's attitude towards Islam would prevent any real alliance from happening.

As for Russia, they're not going to get involved unless their favorite neighbors are attacked. Russia is firmly focused on reunification of the Soviet territories and has no interest in expanding beyond those borders. There's no value in doing so, because they already have access to whatever resources they need, and already know the costs involved in occupying territory by a population so different from their own. Their hands are tied in how they manage such occupations because once beyond their traditional borders, they'll face real international considerations. As I said before, nobody cares what happens in Eastern Europe, or the former soviet territories. Putin knows this.

I am unashamedly pro-American. It's not that I like the idea of a global US policeman, it's that I like the idea of a Chinese hegemon and a post-US world much, much less. 

Ahh well, I have less fears of Chinese dominance after living in China, and knowing Chinese people. They want a return to the Ming Dynasty, with other nations paying tribute, and respecting Chinese culture. Pretty much the same as the US TBH. The problem with China is that they have too many neighbors who would never accept their dominance. The US doesn't have the same problem having ensured over the last fifty years that no such nation gained that kind of prosperity.

I used to be pro-American... but that's in the past. Between Bush Jnr, Trump, and the increase of power/influence by it's private military corporations, I don't trust America to be balanced and reasonably fair anymore. They've embraced the bully mentality that they merely dabbled with before. The only reason that the US is preferable to China is that we share some common cultural foundations, but the US continues to move away from that as time goes by, and I can easily see a time (within my lifetime) when the US is just as dodgy as China.

I have the terrors about this and can't help but feel that the long peace may not last much longer. Nukes + Nerves + Cyberwarfare. Where is the safest place to be in the sheer hell that would follow?

I'd be more worried about biological weapons than nukes tbh. All the same, I would say that we're approaching a time when a war is needed to cut down the population, but also to re-energise our governments, and politics. Wars tend to bring the best and brightest into the front, where they become leaders. Western democracy has been sliding downhill for decades now, and an actual war might be the only way to save it. Same with the sense of entitlement and excessive application of the social sciences... first world problems that are slowly destroying our own societies. A world war would likely remind people that there are more important things in life.

That's not to say that I want such a war, but that I see it as inevitable based on how humanity has behaved throughout history. The rise and fall of civilisations tends to follow similar paths... and I see western nations currently following a similar path towards destruction. A war would serve as a reminder as to why European/US culture was the most successful over the last 200-300 years.

At various stages over the last decade, you an Irish national with zero links to any form of extremism, could be picked up by American intelligence and sent to Guantanamo Bay to face a sham trial over the right to imprison you, and take away your rights to representation and fair due process... to be released a few years later without a word of apology and no realistic way to address the behavior of the American government. Yup. That's the last bastion of democracy and freedom. I could go on, but there's little point... and as has been already said by others, the thread is about China not America.

I'm not seeking to elevate China to any kind of position where they're exempt from criticism. haha. Their offenses are extremely well known. As for knowing Chinese people, I suppose I should have been more specific in that I understand the way they operate due to living and working in State universities for so long.

Now, as for your realist section, China is already hemmed in by US bases, and their allies. Just as the Soviet Union and modern day Russia is. This is what the US has always done, and the Soviets going in to Cuba was simply an attempt to do the same as the US were already doing... it didn't work, and most people ignore the double standards at play, where the US arming or placing nukes in neighboring countries isn't aggression, because the US is a peaceful nation, in spite of all their military adventures. Nah. China is locked up, which is one of the reasons that Taiwan is so important to them.

The fall of Taiwan wouldn't be the end of democracy in Asia. S.Korea, and Japan are the primary democracies in the region... and they're not changing that any time soon, due to the benefits of being aligned with the west. And the aspect of authoritarian governments... there's plenty to choose from since it's the favored form of government throughout central Asia and Africa.

I do believe that China will go to war.. because it has no real choice. I don't believe they're even remotely strong enough to take on the US or their Asian counterparts, but that doesn't change anything.

The CCP are not going to fall while it remains united, and it will remain united out of self-preservation for individuals concerns due to reprisals should they have to stand alone. The CCP control huge numbers in military and police, which the local population are not going to face.

Anyway, the biggest concern for most Chinese people is what would be the alternative to the CCP. They've always desired strong leadership, and their one fling with democracy ended with the creation of a nationalist government. Few Chinese people believe that democracy is any kind of answer.. and consider western media to be full of lies and propaganda. Which isn't that far from the truth, to be fair. Nobody want the chaos that civil war would bring, and few want any kind western involvement in their affairs. So... no... I don't believe that the CCP will fall. There will likely be some kind of public purge because that's a very Chinese kind of thing to pass responsibility on to others, using scapegoats. Their propaganda machine would have a field day under those circumstances, and it doesn't really matter if they were believed or not, because the alternatives are worse.

I suspect that you're right in thinking that China would close in on itself, similar to the way it was in the 1970s. They're already heading that way.. and they could revert to a more traditional economy, because most adults remember what it was like to be poor. It wouldn't be easy, and probably there would be serious violent unrest, with a lot of choice examples being made, but yeah... I wouldn't be too surprised to see most Chinese people accept such a change. And many would welcome it, because they see the modernization that has occurred as being a negative influence on young people, and the push behind the decline in morality. Westerners tend to look at the Chinese population, and judge them reacting the same as any western population would... but they've had a very different environment to grow up in, combined with the very strong influence of traditional Chinese culture.

I think a very smart thing for XI to do, would be to open up the emigration rules allowing many of those unhappy with the situation the opportunity to leave to go elsewhere... although probably they'll do the opposite, by making it even harder for people to leave.

Dunno. It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens.

War doesn't save anything. A direct war between 2 superpowers (highly likely if China tries to invade Taiwan) is a nightmare scenario, even if they both "limit" themselves to start, theres a huge possibility for escalation. Think you've lost perspective here, maybe due to your own beliefs (?) A case of perhaps burning down the house might help solve a mice problem (bad relativist ideas from social sciences and superficial "wokeness" that the US pushes on everyone through its cultural and media dominance). 

Nope. I haven't lost perspective. We, in the west, and other parts of the world, have had decades since WW2 to consider the consequences of world war, and the perception towards "total war" has shifted considerably. In part, due to the UN, and subsequent conflicts such as Vietnam, and other lesser conflicts, there is much more common awareness among people about the dangers of war. So, I'm not particularly worried about the escalating of a conflict between China and <insert coalition group>. There is just too much to loose and all players are aware of that. We are no longer driven by ideological movements the way the world was focused during WW2 or the cold war. Even China has given up it's pretense on being an ideological driven society, except for surface/superficial references to a movement within the CCP. There just isn't the position of non-negotiation involved anymore.

As for the extreme answer to the problems within the West, war tends to focus beliefs and weed out the dissenting voices. The US and western culture in general has become incredibly divided, and becomes more so, as each decade passes. A war would likely force such divisions to become submerged while the more important aspect of being unified to fight the threat becomes most important. It's just a thought, rather than a belief that it will change anything in Western society. I'm not sure if there is anything, at this point, that will stop that kind of decay within western societies.

The problems you complain of are not even what I think has done the most serious structural damage to the US and the West over the last generation or so. That would be the greed of finance/big business, its incentives which promote destructive behaviour, and how its captured governments (esp. the US). Apart from corrupting democracy, his greed has also weakened industry and science in the West while giving it a rocket boost in China via outsourcing of all sorts of jobs to increase profit.

Ahh well, different perspectives. The US has always been an extremely capitalist focused nation, where greed played a dominant role. The whole American dream is based off the idea of greed, and wealth. So, I'm not seeing any decline in morality or behavior with regards to greed or the approach to capitalism . That road was paved over a century ago with the first laws protecting companies in the US, including their profiteering during the War of Independence, or the Civil war, extended further into the Mexican war, and later... I'm sure you know where I'm going with this. The US has always profited from war, and have used war as a means to develop their economy, both nationally, but also for the private citizen. There's the usual talk about honesty and fairness, but it's just a propaganda reel to hide the reality of a dog eat dog culture.

In any case, we're going well off topic here.

I don't welcome a war between the US led coalition and China.. but I don't see how it can be avoided. If it's not Taiwan, it will be something else. The US is always looking for a new enemy. Iran was on their list for ages, but China is the grand prize.. and will remain so. Just as China and their military have been preparing for a war with the US for decades, knowing and wanting to show their supposed superiority. It's going to happen at some point.

Good lord, I really wish I hadn't watched that 😔

I'd say they care more about how Chinese businesses have been treated in recent years. The golden days of mostly independent consumerism has gone from the mainland, and the CCP is heavily regulating the behavior of their companies. HK is a prime example of that being extended, and how the CCP goes back on the promises made. Alignment with the west guarantees a freedom to do business and profit. Alignment with China means the opposite.

I would say that while many Taiwanese have close links with those on the mainland, they've also lived outside of the Chinese social system, avoiding conflicts like the Cultural Revolution, while looking from the outside in, but seeing the effects on those they know. They'll know that the CCP has been returning to the older style of leadership, and the freedoms of the last 40 years have been slowly removed or diminished. I honestly don't think there will be any serious welcoming of Chinese rule, or desire to return to the fold by the Taiwanese.

TBH I suspect most people will be resigned, and simply deal with what happens, because regardless of whether it's under Taiwan or China, they have little real influence over events. Asian democracy is closer to American democracy than it is to European democracy. The wealthy have huge power to shape how democracy works there, and the average person is unlikely to feel they have any real power as a voter. So.. resignation over what happens as opposed to embracing their ethnic cousins, or actively resisting the CCP.

Ahh well,.. as for resisting the CCP, I have my doubts as to how many will actually do so.. except for the university students, or those who serve in the military. For the older generations, they have many connections with the mainland... there's regular flights going from most Chinese cities to Taiwan. I would say there's a big difference between what people say in a safe environment vs what they will do when the chips are down.

independence isn’t a majority position there yet. Both Taiwan and the PRC claim all of China, including Taiwan

as for China needing to attack now, that seems like western propaganda. in one or two generations China will win without mich effort.

What is up with your need to take something that was said and make it into something else entirely.

I said nothing about the Taiwanese wanting to join China (if anything that post says the opposite). It's not difficult to stick to the argument that has been written, especially the context of what that argument was directed towards.