The coming conflict over Taiwan

Kermit.de.frog · 22-10-2021 11:25am #1

As China becomes ever more assertive in the Asia Pacific and determined to protect and enhance it's sovereignty and interests in the region it seems inevitable that an attack is coming sooner rather than later on the small democracy of Taiwan.

With China having recently snubbed out democracy in Hong Kong the United States is going to have a major decision to make as to what to do when China invades the island.

Currently they don't have an official defence pact however the US continues to provide military aid and other assistance to Taiwan in what is a defacto defence arrangement if not an official one.

So the question for the west is does it have the stomach to fight a defensive conflict against China? If it doesn't it will be appeasement as another democracy falls.

This story has been written before and it didn't turn out so good.

Should the west defend democracies in the region?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/22/biden-suggests-us-would-defend-taiwan-against-china-forcing-fresh-white-house-clarification

I really don't see a good outcome whatever way we choose to go but it's on balance probably better having a confrontation, should they continue aggression, happen sooner rather than later.

Yurt2 · 22-10-2021 11:38am

I wouldn't bet against something happening in the next couple of years. The scale of it and what countries get dragged into it will decide a lot.

Taiwan really is a wonderful place though and well worth a visit - a vibrant democracy, great food and the people are extremely gracious and well educated. One of the few true democracies in the region along with Japan and South Korea and a place worth defending for a whole host of reasons.

Dohnjoe · 22-10-2021 11:45am

Looks like a chess move to re-highlight the aggressive stance of China towards Taiwan to a worldwide platform. Whether the US would actually step into that conflict if it were to happen, I don't know. Perhaps it's also a pretext to supply Taiwan with better defensive tech.

China has such a hardcore nationalist base and comprehensive propaganda system it would be relatively easy for the country to start a conflict with Taiwan in order to invade the country, even as the aggressor, but of course it would be completely condemned by the rest of the world, which could have serious economic implications for China. A conflict to take the island just wouldn't make any sense for China.

TheValeyard · 22-10-2021 11:51am

Taiwan is important economically and technologically. Not just the fact its a free state and have a successful democracy.

We need their semiconductor factories. These cannot be allowed to fall into Chinese hands.

Also let's not forget the people of Taiwan do not want to put under the Communist totalitarian boot.

Peterteanh · 22-10-2021 1:17pm

From Finbarr Bermingham via Twitter:

NEW: European Parliament adopts first ever report calling on EU to ramp up relations with Taiwan.

580 for

26 against

66 abstentions

Landslide.

timmyntc · 22-10-2021 1:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057791#Comment_118057791

Will the EU now formally recognise Taiwan as an independent state?

Peterteanh · 22-10-2021 1:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057818#Comment_118057818

Who knows but the EU and Americans along with Australia and Japan are really going after China on a whole list of things now from forced labour to WTO breaches etc.

TheValeyard · 22-10-2021 1:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057939#Comment_118057939

About time.

Piollaire · 22-10-2021 1:37pm

Taiwan is the new Czechoslovakia, I don't see the Western alliances doing anything about it. There is just too much risk in a hot war between nuclear armed nations.

Gatling · 22-10-2021 1:53pm

They recently increased US forces on the island marines and navy seals are currently training the Taiwanese military ,

But invading Taiwan is no easy task , the Taiwan strait is quite a dangerous passage weather wise for a few months at a time , China would need a huge force naval and aerial wise while attacking a very well defended country ,

They need to be recognised as a sovereign state and publicly supported by the UN

XsApollo · 22-10-2021 2:18pm

Taiwan was a founding member of the UN if I remember correctly.

Its every other country that enables this,

by bending over to them.

any mention of Taiwan by any country or any sort of university or any official body is met with a rebuke from China.

ideally the rest of the world needs to start removing its reliance on Chinese manufacturing and moving it somewhere else .

its amazing the world is standing idly by also as to what happening with the Uyghurs in xinjinag, it’s like our generations Holocaust and everybody is standing by watching it.

Loafing Oaf · 22-10-2021 4:12pm

Whatever happens over Taiwan China and the United States will agree in advance they won't fire their nukes at each other. Won't they?

Brucie Bonus · 22-10-2021 4:21pm

IMO, we should not be doing any business with China or Russia until they clean up their act domestically.

Plenty of non-violent ways to take China to task. Hong Kong was left and I can see Taiwan going the same way. It seems the west is only interested in fair play and democracy if it makes them money.

Is there much difference between China and North Korea?

XsApollo · 22-10-2021 4:57pm

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/china-removes-broadcasts-of-nba-games-after-boston-celtics-player-enes-kanter-called-for-tibetan-independence-12440860

in the news today an example of how China behaves.

Piollaire · 22-10-2021 5:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118058172#Comment_118058172

We might see the first large scale use of paratroopers since WWII. Taiwan is vulnerable to its air defense systems being disabled through hacking and electronic warfare. China probably has an army of sleeper agents already in place. China won't be concerned about any losses it takes as long as it is successful.

The US has backed off from China both in North Korea and in Vietnam. I don't see that changing.

Indestructable · 22-10-2021 5:49pm

As China's economy begins to crumble under its own heft in the next few years a war would be an ideal distraction. I'd say it's almost inevitable.

Perseverance The Second · 22-10-2021 6:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118058011#Comment_118058011

If the USA allowed Taiwan to return to hands of China it will act as a signal to the world that US Hegemony is at an end. You would expect various Asia-Pacific countries like South Korea to begin winding down ties with the US as their safety is not guaranteed.

The US has to defend Taiwan should they wish to remain the hegemon.

Piollaire · 22-10-2021 8:50pm

The US is not the hegemon it once was. China has become the hegemon in the South China Sea area through its military colonisation of uninhabited islands and also through the belt and road initiative. The US ability to project naval power across the Pacific has been diminished by missile and drone development. China could even go so far as lob nukes into the ocean around Taiwan to keep the Yanks at bay.

Gatling · 22-10-2021 9:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118059152#Comment_118059152

No idea where.your getting those ideas

Piollaire · 22-10-2021 9:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118060249#Comment_118060249

The Taiwanese see these as real possibilities:

"The Han Kuang exercise, held every year since 1984, spans Taiwan's main island as well as outlying islands, incorporating ground, sea and air forces. It envisions a wide range of avenues of potential attack -- not only missiles, but also landing operations, electronic warfare, cyberattacks and bioweapons"

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-simulates-Chinese-biological-and-electronic-attacks-in-war-game

matchbox2021 · 23-10-2021 12:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118059346#Comment_118059346

Just to add that the deputy prime minister of Japan Taro Aso recently stated that were an attack on Taiwan to happen, Japan would consider this an 'existential threat' to themselves and would retaliate.

Should the west help any democracy that is fighting oppression from an authoritarian regime? Absolutely. What better thing is there to fight for. Too many people in this world live under authoritarianism and its only growing.

Hande hoche! · 23-10-2021 8:03am

Imagine if an invasion took place, you would see Japan with a nuclear weapons capability in about six months.

Shao Kahn · 23-10-2021 8:30am

The yanks will always being looking for the next big conflict, in perpetuity, as you cannot justify maintaining such an incredibly powerful industrial military complex without creating or finding a reason for it all to exist.

I'm not suggesting there is no need to maintain military forces (I wish there was), or that someone doesn't need to lean on an increasingly aggressive CCP. But one would certainly be worried about the exact motivations - and the depth of those motivations - when the Americans are involved. It's never straight forward or completely transparent.

Gatling · 23-10-2021 9:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061403#Comment_118061403

So China claiming the whole of the south China sea as their sovereign territory , right up to the coastline of every other country in the the area and the near daily threats to Taiwan and elsewhere,

But somehow it's all a conspiracy

Loafing Oaf · 23-10-2021 9:17am

My sense is the Chinese would be too cautious to push the button on an invasion. Could there be another gameplan here, a blockade/slow strangulation the way the the Spanish have been trying to do with Gibraltar?

XsApollo · 23-10-2021 9:31am

is Their anything that can be done if China invades Taiwan? Taiwan can defend itself but obviously wouldn’t last long.

will the US step in? 2 nuclear powers going at each other is highly unlikely.

will Japan defend taiwan? Seeing as Okinawa is a boat ride away

if the US does something then Japan will.

will the US join in if Japan does something?

don’t really see the US and China going to war.

the rug really needs to be pulled from under China.

most Of the west really has the ability to do it without a war.

tdf7187 · 23-10-2021 9:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057300#Comment_118057300

China will roll all over Taiwan whenever it feels like it. The US has shown that its promises are confetti in the market.

Shao Kahn · 23-10-2021 9:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061536#Comment_118061536

Where did I say it was all a conspiracy?

I said you can never be completely sure about the exact motivations of the Americans.

They live in a society that has an unnerving propensity to use violence as a means to solve problems. And this attitude very often permeates right to the very top of their leadership and command structures in both politics and the various military branches.

You have countless American families, and even entire communities, who grow up with stories about the heroics of what their dad or granddad etc did in various military conflicts. American kids joining the military, desperate to have their own experiences and stories to tell. Very often itching for a fight basically.

They are a dangerous group of people to be putting forward as some sort of world police force, keeping other nations in check.

None of this, should be construed as any kind of tacit support for China or the CCP. I do not think they are a force for good in the world. But I would prefer if we had a group of more emotionally and mentally stable nations taking them on and holding them to task.

I do not think the Americans are really fit to take on a leadership role in these strategic global issues anymore.

Varik · 23-10-2021 9:45am

I think people underestimate Taiwan, they were the ones to inherit the navy and most of the air force during the civil war with experience built up during WW2 and living under threat they've invested a lot in it.

So while China could just out gun and out number them, It's not a case of this being easily won for china without US involvement.

Loafing Oaf · 23-10-2021 10:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061580#Comment_118061580

They'd surely overrun it in a couple of days wouldn't they, if they had their forces funneled effectively?

And any American 'intervention' in that case would be more like the Normandy landings than helping France beat back the Germans in 1940.

Would America really risk that sort of conflict with a major nuclear power?

Timberrrrrrrr · 23-10-2021 10:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061549#Comment_118061549

The Spanish tried that with Gibralter and for 13 years kept the border closed, it didn't work then and wouldn't work now. The only way China could do a blockade is to set an exclusion zone around the island (like Britain did with the Falklands) and threaten to shoot/bomb any aircraft or Sea vessels that enter it.

After that it would be a case of who blinks first, would America and other countries send a flotilla of boats through the zone? Would China dare fire on those ships especially if they were cargo ships and from many different countries?

The coming conflict over Taiwan

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