Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

It's 2 different articles. It's the newer top one says prices are rising and the lower one a 2 year old prediction of falling prices.

Confused me at first too

It's still down nearly £2,000/hectare from it's price immediately before the Brexit referendum. Coincidentally (or maybe not), this rise in prices is occurring in the immediate aftermath of a sustained period of historically low supply due to Covid restrictions - 2020 had the lowest number of acres put up for sale on record, and 2021 only had a small increase on that. When the pent-up demand is satisfied over the next 2 quarters or so, a much more accurate picture will be available. I can't say I'd be betting on the current upswing being sustained

Trade deal with NZ announced today

Though I don't see how sending onions from here to the UK is viable or sustainable...

The UK government's own estimate of the economic impact of the trade deal is negligible; its impact on UK GDP will be in the range of +0.01% to -0.01%. To all intents and purposes, this is zero impact. The NZ estimate is that the deal will boost their GDP by about 0.3%.

Of course, these cows are small, those cows are far away, and New Zealand is both small and far away, so a UK/NZ trade deal was never going to have much economic impact in the UK. What will be interesting about the NZ trade deal, when it is finalised, will be to what extent NZ has been able to cherry-pick the terms agreed for the UK/AUS trade deal. At the time the UK said that the AUS deal was not a precedent for the terms it would offer other countries, while NZ negotiators went into battle saying that it would be unacceptable for NZ to be offered less favourable terms than the terms the UK was willing to offer AUS. So we'll see how that panned out.

And the other interesting thing to look for will be the extent to which environmental commitments and targets are included in the deal.

We don't know either of these things yet - they will have to await the negotiation of the deal. The razzamatazz notwithstanding, all we have at the moment is (a) a press release about (b) an agreement in principle on the parameters of (c) a trade deal that is yet to be negotiated, never mind signed or implemented.

One thing I was thinking about after reading the news about the newly brokered NZ UK trade agreement is the potential impact on NZ trade with China and AUKUS. I’m open to correction but China is New Zealand’s biggest trade partner. So notwithstanding a trade agreement, is there potential conflicts of interest looming making simply unworkable?

https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/the-geopolitics-behind-the-new-zealand-uk-free-trade-agreement/

We import most of our blueberries, tomatoes and literally everything as per this article from Germany and Netherlands. So expectations (as per your post) is no impact because of UK reductions in planting.

lol @ daffodils

Apparently the UK is the world's biggest harvester of daffs for the commercial cut flower market. Experiencing a crisis in manpower at the moment.

'I harvest 70 million daffodils a year but £1 a bunch can't last' - BBC News

It strikes me that the UK struck a trade deal with NZ purely for propaganda purposes. This shouldn't even be a story or news and should only be on Page 10 in the British newspapers.

A savvy government might well have passed up on the trade deal. One estimate is that it might actually decrease British GDP than have any positive outcome.

It honestly looks like Johnson has no long term strategy. Everything is spur of the moment and done with the aim of boosting the govt's popularity. It seems a totally chaotic way of governing.

When will anyone raise the fact that Rees Mogg stated that no trade agreement would be required with New Zealand. Or the fact that U.K. will have to rely on New Zealand trading standards which goes against U.K. deciding their own trade standards. Or the fact that no benefits are for U.K. farmers.

have a look at the lies and bs at 11 minutes here https://youtu.be/DF3OQkWEyZA

It's been a quiet Brexit week but No.10 issued a statement tonight saying the ECJ must be removed from the Protocol : no softening of their stance at all it seems.

It would appear that the U.K. on the face of it believe that triggering Article 16 is a magic bullet that disapplies the entirety of the NIP. All it really does is commence further joint discussions to try and come to a solution. There is a procedure for each step I think set out in Annex 7.

This palaver about wanting sovereignty sounds good for the egocentric Rule Brittania Brexit supporter and the bite your nose off to spite your face DUP member it cannot work in practice. The ECJ is required for the Single Market to work. There are alternatives such as Swiss model( I think) but if the U.K. go with that it makes their sovereignty argument implode.

There is an alternative to completely rewrite massive bilateral agreement regarding dispute resolution but same issue.

The thing that makes this a little nuts is the fact that the ECJ rarely is called to arbitrate cases as most are settled in National Courts. I think there was only 24 cases last year.

The EUs offer of incredibly generous amendments was bit of a win for Frost and Boris and the EU while looking pragmatic was made to look brow beaten. It appears that this has toughened up their negotiation stance.

So either Frost and Boris give up this sovereignty court stance or say fcuck it. Their lack of knowledge on NIP, GFA could finally be the almighty fcuck up trade tarriff wise. It also damages international reputation for compliance with International agreements. I really hope this doesn’t happen because it would be the first step of the cessation of peace in our country.

When the EU offered very generous terms on NI it was basically calling the UK bluff and exposing their attempt to feign concern over the well bring of NI under the NIP

The EU could have held firm but it would have just stretched out the process and no matter how many or few concessions the EU made on NIP the ECJ was always the real prize for the UK

By the EU skipping the petty negotiations and just offering a very generous upgrade to the NIP the EU have demonstrated that the English do not give a sh1t about the NIP and have always been acting in bad faith. The people of Northern Ireland did not fail to notice this. Even some unionists are getting tired of bring used as pawns by Westminster and will appreciate that the EU are the side that actually want NI to succeed while Westminster are trying to sabotage them do they can use them as propaganda

I swear to God I think that the whole Brexit approach will be unveiled shortly as the biggest practical joke that ever has been. No satire comedy show could even begin to create what is pedalled out on a daily basis.

But i think they have finally jumped the shark with their most recent policy to assist in HGV transportation. To make up for all the horrible immigrant HGV drivers that have ruined the fabric of real Britain they will replace with incarcerated prisoners.

Here is one guy out on day release from prison at the request of the U.K. government to drive a truck for HMQ. And what crime is he currently serving a considerable for? yes, drug trafficking with a lorry.

https://youtu.be/6n2bl95ptj8

There is an original recording which was better but can’t seem to find it again. When I saw the original news item I thought it was a brass eye episode. I didn’t want to post something that possibly was a comedy creator editing cleverly.

But this is fcucking for real! https://youtu.be/r8eT7-UWsj8