The coming conflict over Taiwan

23-10-2021 10:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118063674#Comment_118063674

You make it sound like China is a special case, but "we" turn a blind eye to many countries with dodgy pasts, along with their present activities.

Hell, we should have cut off all ties with the US after they lied to the world for the invasion of Iraq and their subsequent behavior there, but nobody did. The simple truth is that when it comes to trade, and money... very few countries receive strong condemnation, and any avoidance is likely due to political maneuvering such as sanctions, which often occur due to dubious considerations.

There is a shitload of hypocrisy when it comes to the application of morality to situations such as these. The US should have been done for war crimes, or sanctioned for many of their military adventures over the last two decades, but it's fine because they're a western nation. Meh. Nah. Focus on China and Russia instead. Double standards abound.

Don't get me wrong.. I'm not excusing either China or Russia for what they've done, and continue to do, but at the same time, I notice the double standards and willful ignorance embraced when it comes to those nations who are on the white list.

Brucie Bonus · 23-10-2021 10:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064398#Comment_118064398

The thread is about China. I know about the sweat shops in India etc.

23-10-2021 10:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064435#Comment_118064435

I didn't say anything about the sweat shops in India... you did. Bizarre response really.

Ahh I understand now. You're reinforcing the double standards. Nothing to see here when it comes to anything that doesn't involve China... because we should be jumping on China entirely, and not dealing with the other BS in the world. Right. Gotcha. Nah. Don't buy it.

Condemnation for an invasion of Taiwan. The abuse of the Uighers, definitely. A range of other dodgy behavior, sure. But applying the double standards.. nah. Not going there with you.

Brucie Bonus · 23-10-2021 10:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064449#Comment_118064449

The thread is about China and Taiwan. We were talking about doing business with China. You mentioned other countries with dodgy practices and asked why we concentrate on Russia and China. I said its a thread about China and that I know about elsewhere and I mentioned India as a random example. Not so bizarre after all.

SupplyandDemandZone · 23-10-2021 10:44pm

The US and China are already at war. Yeah it's just cyber, propaganda, trade etc.. but it's still a war.

The highest grossing film in the world at present is a Chinese propaganda film "The battle at lake Changjin" and Chinese national pride is through the roof because of it.

America is politically and culturally divided at the moment as is Europe and China has strong allies in Russia, Iran and NK. I think it's very likely they make a move on Taiwan in the very near future.

Gatling · 23-10-2021 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064477#Comment_118064477

What can Iran do

23-10-2021 11:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064463#Comment_118064463

It's an obvious deflection, and just reinforces the impression of double standards. You raised the point of Ireland doing business with China, and sought to be disapproving of it.

If the thread is only about China, why would you talk about Irish trade with China? Yeah. No answer needed to that one.

Muahahaha · 23-10-2021 11:37pm

@[Deleted User] not going to quote your whole post but

Personally, I suspect they'll do what Chinese people do best. Grin and bear the occupation, hoping that international pressure or military involvement by others will bring about their freedom again. There will likely be some violent resistance by Taiwanese military, militia, and young people in general, but it's doubtful they'll achieve much considering the Chinese will likely flood the country and reinforce martial law, with Chinese law being applied. That's not an easy situation to face for any Taiwanese person...

Would the Taiwanese just grin and bear it? Like Taiwan was flooded with Han Chinese in 1949 after the Communists and Mao took over the mainland, they fled becasue they didnt want to live under communism. They now they have a democracy, they have freedom of the press and have a very high standard of living. Im not so sure theyre just going to shrug their shoulders and grin and bear it. To me it runs deeper than that, its a battle of ideologies and the descendants of those who fled the mainland when Mao took charge arent going to be too enamored with a lurch back to the communism that their grandparents fled from in the first place. I dont claim to know the Taiwanese mindset but would have thought that 70 years of evidence has shown that their way won out and will be reluctant to just give that up so quick and grin and bear it without a fight.

Also part of your post seemed to assume that the US would get involved in an invasion. Im not so sure about that and would actually think the main reason China is agitating right now is that they correctly see public opinion in the US as both divided but also united on non intervention. The American public themselves are sick of Washington acting as the worlds police man, Trump won an election on this and his America First policy and it isnt just Republican voters who feel that way, Democrats too dont have the appetite for more wars after Iraq and Afghanistan Beijing sees that and is now trying to take advantage

I think Xi Jinping is timing this Taiwan agitation perfectly to tune into the US election cycle. He is agitating now knowing Biden is up for re-election in 2024 and he can make Taiwan an election issue by constantly poking the US into military action on foreign soil, which is something the US public at large do not want. Its easy to see how Biden would want to intervene because its in US interests to do so but its also equally easy to see how Republicans would be screaming during election season "What are we going doing getting involved in a war over a tiny island in Asia?, Biden needs to go" and that would reasonate with voters.

Because of the lack of appetite by most Americans for more foreign interventions backing up Taiwan would be a really hard sell in a US election cycle. And if Biden did intervene before 2024 then he is likely toast at the election and in comes Trump- someone who the Xi already knows wont intervene. So their appeasement would continue on for a further 4 years which is basically exactly what they want. A situation like that would be really dangerous for Japan and South Korea, even India should be worried.

charlie_says · 23-10-2021 11:53pm

Taiwan will be militarily crippled in a matter of hours if China pull the trigger, even before attempting any kind of serious invasion.

China simply have more missiles pointed at Taiwan. Saturation will blunt the air defense network and then it's a case of taking out the majority of runways that weren't destroyed or repaired by the initial missile strikes.

Without aid from foreign nations they are sitting ducks as they are simply too close to China and are squarely in range of many medium/long range missiles that China have tens of thousands of.

Even if the not a single Chinese solider sets foot on Taiwan a massive chunk of their defenses and air ability would be destroyed very quickly (less than a day likely) and they would become a nation under the boot of China.

Any idea of defending or helping them risks a shooting war with China and possibility of nukes. Once the violence starts nobody really knows where it ends so international community would think very carefully about intervention, imho.

Larbre34 · 24-10-2021 12:18am

We all know where appeasement ends.

China and Russia both need a sudden, shocking, loud and stinging slap to the face, by whatever means.

Those means must clearly communicate that if a follow up to the slap is needed, it will be in the form of a dagger into the guts.

24-10-2021 12:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064700#Comment_118064700

Would the Taiwanese just grin and bear it? Like Taiwan was flooded with Han Chinese in 1949 after the Communists and Mao took over the mainland, they fled becasue they didnt want to live under communism. They now they have a democracy, they have freedom of the press and have a very high standard of living. Im not so sure theyre just going to shrug their shoulders and grin and bear it. To me it runs deeper than that, its a battle of ideologies and the descendants of those who fled the mainland when Mao took charge arent going to be too enamored with a lurch back to the communism that their grandparents fled from in the first place. I dont claim to know the Taiwanese mindset but would have thought that 70 years of evidence has shown that their way won out and will be reluctant to just give that up so quick and grin and bear it without a fight.

What was the government/political type when Taiwan was created, and how long since Taiwan became an actual democracy? Most of those who fled came to Taiwan, because they were part of the old order... a nationalistic order. Not a democratic order... and they came because they were being persecuted/killed. It wasn't an ideological war. That's romantic nonsense. They lost, and ran. It's that simple.

As for the Taiwanese today, maybe they will assume some kind of romantic belief about their need to fight for democracy, but honestly, that sounds too much like propaganda to me. They'll want their freedom, yes. However, the Chinese are a very very practical people. I don't believe they'll run into gunfire out of some mistaken belief that they can defeat China once they've established themselves on the Taiwanese mainland.

And what's this 70 years of evidence? Evidence of what?

Also part of your post seemed to assume that the US would get involved in an invasion. Im not so sure about that and would actually think the main reason China is agitating right now is that they correctly see public opinion in the US as both divided but also united on non intervention. The American public themselves are sick of Washington acting as the worlds police man, Trump won an election on this and his America First policy and it isnt just Republican voters who feel that way, Democrats too dont have the appetite for more wars after Iraq and Afghanistan Beijing sees that and is now trying to take advantage

Actually, the first part of my post was assuming only limited involvement by the US, and the most work being done by Japan, S.Korea, and Australia. The US will likely get involved, only because Biden has made a big deal out of reinforcing the alliances that Trump allowed to slide. Anyway, Taiwan under Chinese control, directly affects two American allies (Japan, and S.Korea), and also weakens the US perimeter of bases to contain them. I'd say it's highly likely the US will get involved, although, it's doubtful they could do much initially.

China is "agitating" right now because their economy is in the bucket, unemployment is soaring, and Xi is getting old/sick. Xi gained power by promising the military the return of Taiwan, and if he wants to retain his glorious leader legend (after he's dead), he will need to return Taiwan to the fold.

Personally, I don't believe that US military forces are needed at all. American influence diplomatically, and the provision of logistical support to their allies is all they really need to do. Even if Taiwan was occupied, I don't believe that China could hold on to it for more than a year or two. The isolation would destroy them economically, and bring about serious social unrest on the mainland.

Oh, and Trump will support US involvement against China, because this is the right time to take China down hard... because they're fragile. Trump, for all his negatives, still considers himself to be a patriot, and a weak China is the best answer to US power in Asia.

A situation like that would be really dangerous for Japan and South Korea, even India should be worried.

I suspect the only thing that India would be worried about is Nuclear war. They already outclass the Chinese everywhere militarily, and have better connections with Russia. China isn't going to want any kind of real conflict with India, because that would bring Russia into the conflict.. and while Russia isn't what it once was, China isn't stupid enough to turn the whole world against them. They will want some neutrals nearby, especially Russia.

24-10-2021 12:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064814#Comment_118064814

Easy to volunteer others to do the fighting. Who is going to do the slapping? The US, I assume?

It's simply unrealistic, and impossible to enforce. It works for small nations.. that's all. But against a nuclear power with a substantial military? Nope.

Taiwan being invaded opens the door for China to be censured, because Taiwan has importance for trade, and it's an geographical/strategically important location. Russia hitting former soviet countries doesn't work the same way, because nobody cares about them. Just as apart from a lot of speeches, nothing was done about HK. It's just not practical.

24-10-2021 12:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118062380#Comment_118062380

A video was uploaded on Chinese social media platform Xigua, in which the narrator threatens nuclear war with Japan(after the deputy prime minister let slip about Taiwan). The post was shared by an official CCP government account(albeit a low level municipal authority in the country's north west.)

The message is clear: If Tokyo steps in to defend Taiwan against China, nuclear weapons will surely be used against Japan. "We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time," the video said.

“When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force – even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane or one ship – we will not only return fire but also wage full-scale war against Japan itself.”

The video ends by stating: "There will be no peace talks."

For a country with a very tightly controlled media landscape, the fact that the video exists at all tells you something.

"It wouldn't be there to see if someone didn't want us to look at it, so, it's not an official statement by the CCP but the fact it isn't blocked or censored demonstrates a complicity, a passive endorsement." Tom Sear - Cyber propaganda and China expert.

Muahahaha · 24-10-2021 1:15am

What was the government/political type when Taiwan was created, and how long since Taiwan became an actual democracy? Most of those who fled came to Taiwan, because they were part of the old order... a nationalistic order. Not a democratic order... and they came because they were being persecuted/killed. It wasn't an ideological war. That's romantic nonsense. They lost, and ran. It's that simple.

It was authoritarian to begin with but Taiwan transitioned into a free market democracy in the 1970s and 80s, it is what made them the success they are today. I dont think its about romanticism, its about a population who dont want to live under communism and being run from Beijing, it is pretty practicable and real politck in that regard. They know if China takes over thattheir hard won high standards of living and freedoms will go way down. Why would then just grin and let that happen? They havent got an air force and navy for the craic so they can just roll over and I doubt the population at large will do either.

The civil war mindset of their grandparents is still there, its not like they're just going to give that up easily. You already spoke about Chinese 're-education camps' being applied to the Taiwanese but these people have had a high level of education for over 40 years now, they are not the Uighurs who never had any education at all. Its impossible to re-educate a population like that into thinking commuunism is great when they know it isnt.

Oh, and Trump will support US involvement against China, because this is the right time to take China down hard... because they're fragile. Trump, for all his negatives, still considers himself to be a patriot, and a weak China is the best answer to US power in Asia.

Trump knows his base and they dont want interventionist wars, especially not on behalf of a small island in Asia. He wouldn't be able to sell it to them especially when it would involve American soldiers coming home in coffins. He ranted about that stuff for all through the Iraq and Afghan wars, he's not going to do a 180 on it now. In any case the Generals would make sure he doesnt intervene, they see him as crazy and know full well his disposition could bring about nuclear war. They even took the codes off him in January 2020 and openly talked about him as a madman. They would be reluctant to get into a war with China unless they trusted the President.

If Trump were to be re-elected in 2024 Id predict China will get everything they want in relation to Taiwan. In the meantime Beijing will continue to send their fighter jets into Taiwanese airspoace in an attempt to provoke Biden into taking action which then goes down like a lead balloon with the US domestic audience the moment soldiers are killed. It is clear that Beijingi sees the US is divided and is now is playing both sides in shaping the next US election.

Muahahaha · 24-10-2021 1:23am

👌

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064814#Comment_118064814

Thats it Larbre34, amazing foreign policy analysis as always. All we need to do is get a dagger and then stab China and Russia with it 💪

tails_naf · 24-10-2021 1:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118061821#Comment_118061821

Unbridled capatilism by definition will sell you and everyone short in the long run. Wall Street is inherently chaotic and works against both company and countries interest. Any system that demands growth at all costs, and values it higher than stability and profitability, is bound to cause irrational decision making, like offshoring all manufacturing to a country thst at will steals and copies your product, ignoring all patent laws. China likely being the domainant world power in a decade is wall streets unbridled influence coming home to roost

MacronvFrugals · 24-10-2021 2:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064958#Comment_118064958

The West really thought an emerging middle class in China would demand and get a democracy or that's what the American political class told itself at night to justify the outsourcing.

Milton Friedman meeting the CCP General Secretary Zhao Ziyang in 1988 and recommending price liberalization,

The cruel irony of all this, the same opium that the Brits subjugated China with eventually ended up decimating deindustrialized American cities.

24-10-2021 10:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064916#Comment_118064916

It was authoritarian to begin with but Taiwan transitioned into a free market democracy in the 1970s and 80s, it is what made them the success they are today. I dont think its about romanticism, its about a population who dont want to live under communism and being run from Beijing, it is pretty practicable and real politck in that regard. They know if China takes over thattheir hard won high standards of living and freedoms will go way down.

The people who fled the mainland and ended up in Taiwan, followed a nationalist government. You realise that they had more in common with Germany of the 30s than anything else? That is why I made the comment about romanticism, because their base ideology was not about democracy. Chinese democracy was killed by the Nationalist agenda. Their experience of democracy is relatively new, and most of their middle aged, and older population will remember the harder line of government. Even when democracy was brought in, it wasn't entirely the same as western democracy, with a very different sense with regards to parties and voting habits. It was romantic to make the claim that they would be fighting for democracy.

They would fight for their freedom to rule themselves. That makes sense... but again, they're a very practical people, and I don't see them fighting something that they're unlikely to defeat.

Why would then just grin and let that happen? They havent got an air force and navy for the craic so they can just roll over and I doubt the population at large will do either

I made that reference to grin and bear it due to their culture, which I stated earlier. It's part of Chinese culture to accept and just deal with a negative society. They did it for centuries before the communists took power, they did it on the mainland, and they did it in Taiwan under the Nationalist powers, and the powerful families of the rich/influential.

The civil war mindset of their grandparents is still there, its not like they're just going to give that up easily. You already spoke about Chinese 're-education camps' being applied to the Taiwanese but these people have had a high level of education for over 40 years now, they are not the Uighurs who never had any education at all. Its impossible to re-educate a population like that into thinking commuunism is great when they know it isnt.

Come on, you know exactly what I meant by re-education camps. It's indoctrination of the population, and has been used in communist type zones for decades, with variable success. It's not impossible to indoctrinate people, because it's been successful before. You keep trying to suggest that the Uighurs are the same as the Taiwanese, but as I already explained, they're not the same. The Uighurs are foreign, and the Taiwanese are Chinese. The continued similarities in culture of Chinese people will provide a basis for indoctrination.... and would likely be reasonably successful if there was enough time available to do so.

Trump knows his base and they dont want interventionist wars, especially not on behalf of a small island in Asia. He wouldn't be able to sell it to them especially when it would involve American soldiers coming home in coffins.

Trump is on the sidelines, and speaks in opposition.. which means he can say whatever he likes, because it's not part of an election campaign. He has the freedom to swing on points relating to foreign policy. And as I said before, this is the time to hit China, because they're weak. If China invades Taiwan, they've opened themselves up to destruction... and the US would have a huge pool of allies to draw upon. The situation is far different if China didn't invade Taiwan, and so, there's no interest in war with them. Nobody wants a nuclear war with China... but a conventional war? The US military would love to put themselves against China, because it would their first chance to show American military superiority against a real nation. Not terrorists, but a conventional army, which they were designed to counter.

In any case, any decision to go to war would rest with Biden and co. And as I stated previously, I don't actually think the US is needed to defeat China, so they could play the sidelines providing diplomatic/economic support to those involved.. which would be fine for all US parties involved. Especially, since they could continue being the worlds arms supplier providing weapons to those fighting against China at discount.

24-10-2021 11:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064890#Comment_118064890

The CCP also had a long history of big talk and threats.... and then backing down on them.

Full scale conventional war, I can see. Nuclear war would be kept to prevent the invasion of the Chinese mainland and the toppling of the CCP if they lost the war. Personally, I suspect they would commit to the war, and accept losing the war, as long as it didn't affect the regime itself, but any notion of regime change would be met with the nukes.

Dohnjoe · 24-10-2021 11:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064463#Comment_118064463

It's the new Godwin. I don't think I've ever come across a thread on this forum about any country or situation in the world without (the usual) posters finding a way to shoehorn in Iraq or as a proxy to attack decades of US foreign policy (and before any triggered posters jump in, I protested against that war, calm down)

Back on topic, as I said earlier, I just don't see any benefit to China actually pulling the trigger on an invasion. Economically it would be disastrous for the country, there would be no net "gain" from it. I just wonder if it's not all a stage-show by Jinping to keep the ultra-nationalists happy.

24-10-2021 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065476#Comment_118065476

Hardly. Context is important. The other poster introduced the topic by bringing in other elements himself, and then, sought to withdraw by deflecting to talking only about China. There's an awful desire by some to focus entirely on comfortable perspectives rather than deal with the double standards and hypocrisies that occur. Godwins is something else entirely, because invariably the comparisons made are extremes and unrelated to the core arguments at play.

Dohnjoe · 24-10-2021 11:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065579#Comment_118065579

And it's always the same culprits. Is there an international political thread on anything in the world? by the 3rd or 4th page we will be hearing about Iraq, "hypocrisy", etc. Like I said, it's the new Godwin, as demonstrated.

SupplyandDemandZone · 24-10-2021 11:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064814#Comment_118064814

China have nukes and we know Russia do, you can't just slap them in the face. China in particular know this and will get more aggressive with each passing year.

Gatling · 24-10-2021 12:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065664#Comment_118065664

Of course you can slap them in the face .

There not the only country with nukes or nuclear warheads ,

24-10-2021 12:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065631#Comment_118065631

Grand, we disagree.

24-10-2021 12:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065735#Comment_118065735

And how do you slap them? Military intervention? Sanctions?

Between Russia and China, the UN are blocked from doing anything of note, so it would fall to others outside of that organisation. So how would it be done without it being an essentially empty gesture?

The invasion of Taiwan is the key here, and an obvious overstepping of boundaries, giving legitimacy to any actions against China. Apart from that though, there's not much that can realistically be done.

Gatling · 24-10-2021 1:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065817#Comment_118065817

Sanctions have been pretty much useless when it came to Russia since the invasion and occupation of Ukraine and the shooting down of flight MH 17 ,

They still have strings they can pull in Europe especially with oil and gas ,they are also the biggest supporters and exporter of far right groups in the EU ,and superise those groups are anti EU and NATO ,

They should have been kicked of the swift banking system and assets froze all over Europe , along with removing their diplomatic service ,

Then over several months move EU forces into Ukraine and take over control over their defences , including permanently stationing air defenses and air patrols .

And yes russia will counter but there is only so much they can do , threaten a full invasion and occupation of Ukraine ,that kinda hasn't gone so well for them military wise ,

This whole idea of we can't say boo to russia because they have nukes is the biggest joke of the lot ,

People are happy to cry America did this and America did that but somehow they cheer when russia does something ,

Europe needs to be completely unified in any response to Russia, they along with China should be kicked out of the UN ,but then people will cry to have the US UK and multiple others thrown out , making it completely more useless , since day russia has tried to counter and block UN actions including deploying military forces to attack UN forces while preaching peace ,the Korean war should have saw Russia kicked out then

Brucie Bonus · 24-10-2021 1:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064569#Comment_118064569

I don't know why you discuss so aggressively.

I'm not even sure what we are disagreeing about.

I know others are as bad or worse but we are discussing China. Thats all I was trying to say.

You brought in the US and I mentioned India and explained its a thread about China. No deflection or whatever. You asked why it was always about China or Russia. Its the thread for China.

If we truly want to take a non-violent stand, trade is the obvious choice.

Businesses will lose profits and of course raise prices to maintain that profit but I think it will be a good thing in the long run. The mark up on some items is insane as is. There's room to lower pricing and keep decent profit IMO.

We need to send China a message.

Brucie Bonus · 24-10-2021 1:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065476#Comment_118065476

I think its another foothold for them and its a matter of pride as they see it as theirs. They might do some sham allow them function as normal like they pretended with Hong Kong, which will allow the west to sit by and continue to trade with China.

Its all about money at the end of the day. Shameful.

24-10-2021 2:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065909#Comment_118065909

Sounds nice but the reality would be to suspend most fair practice laws regarding financing and asset control, which runs counter to the philosophy behind western democratic systems. The reason I asked for what could be done, was because our systems of what is acceptable when it comes to foreign nations prevents such maneuvering, since it would require strong and direct State intervention in the private sector, which sets a precedence that few would want to see happen. The EU has already become far too regulated as it is, and many would oppose such initiatives because they wouldn't want greater moves towards such a strict society.

I honestly don't see it happening, as private business concerns would continue to deal with Russia, and pressure by the EU wouldn't be enough to counter much of anything.

And no... I don't believe we can't say boo to Russia or China because of their nukes. I don't believe there are any realistic measures that could be implemented that wouldn't be defeated before they began. Europe has never been particularly unified on any issues, and without serious reasons to agree, most would resist committing themselves to opposing China or Russia. As I said before, nobody cares what happens in Eastern Europe, as long as it doesn't directly affect the EU members themselves. Same with what goes on within China's borders, or what they get up to in 3rd world nations. Loads of speeches and posturing, but when push comes to shove, they'll back down, because to commit themselves to opposition would cost too much, and likely they (member states) wouldn't have support from their own electorate to do so.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065930#Comment_118065930

There's nothing aggressive in my post. It's arguing a point, that's all. You sought to be disapproving of Ireland's involvement with China, and I pointed out that there's nothing special about Ireland doing so... since we do that with a pile of countries including the US. And then, when I didn't agree with you, sought to limit the argument to solely being about China... Which is why I asked why you had introduced Ireland... You set the ball rolling on the introduction of points unrelated to the thread topic. Simple enough really.

But sure, I'm happy enough to let it slide, and return to dealing with China/Taiwan.

We need to send China a message.

What makes you think they care? No, honestly, most Chinese people consider themselves (as a nation) to be persecuted by western powers. They're very much in touch with their history of losing out to Western imperial powers, or later day governments. Whether it's the loss of territories after WW1/WW2, or what they consider Western meddling in the area of Taiwan, they've never lost the belief that Westerners are against them. There's a very strong victim complex when it comes to Chinese history... so, they're not going to be surprised when Western nations seek to limit them. They'll simply point to similar behavior by western nations, and nod to the double standards, and continue as they wish.

What is the end goal here? To humiliate and diminish Chinese power/influence in the region? Regime change? To guarantee Taiwans independence? What?

Cause that's what really needs to be decided. Any slap on the wrist for China will be ignored while they seek to increase their power/influence. Short of actual war, I don't believe any Chinese person will accept that Taiwan shouldn't be "returned" to them.

The coming conflict over Taiwan

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