Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

The coming conflict over Taiwan

245678

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,755 ✭✭✭✭Hello 2D Person Below


    Have you not been around the last 18 months to see the stranglehold that China has on world supply chains?

    Russia and the EU are currently in a stand off regarding the supply of gas to keep us ticking over this winter.

    And you think we should just cut them both off?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,390 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    That’s my point , what can actually be done if the do decide to invade?

    Dunno about over running in a couple of days, the west of Taiwan is densely populated, all the major cities are that side.

    Taiwan are prepared, there are regular drills over there. They are waiting for the day and are always ready. But yea it wouldn’t take long.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    I'm far from an expert on these matters but why did western countries including EU and America allow ourselves to become so economically dependant on a country like China. Ireland is far too small to rock the boat but did we (as in the west) sell ourselves out for cheap manufacturing.

    Did unbridled capitalism sell us short?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The Chinese apparently Said they were planning to degrade the Taiwanese airforce by making daily incursions into their airspace so they can wear out the ageing Taiwanese aircraft ,due to the fact China has prevented Taiwan from buying new aircraft for last 30 years ,

    China hasn't currently got the ability to mount a full on invasion of Taiwan ,it's not so easy crossing the Taiwan strait ,it gets even more difficult when you have a a decent military who have prepared since day one trying to stop you ,Ans it's not a simple case of flying in paratroopers



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    To my mind the UN betrayed Hong Kong. More concerned with concepts such as decolonisation than with what the actual inhabitants wanted. I can see the same thing happening to Taiwan on the UN stage too.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,390 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    Taiwan was abandoned by the UN 50 years ago or whenever that was.

    even tho they were a founding member.

    you even have to look at the last couple of years, with the WHO and the coronavirus to the depths China goes to pretty much remove any acknowledgment Taiwan even exists.


    I had a taiwanese friend here for a few weeks just as the virus was becoming known worldwide,

    we were shopping and gathering the receipts for VAT reclaim, when you are getting a vat receipt the shop asks for your country, in every shop , the shop assistant struggled to find Taiwan on the list of countries, after a few shops I pretty much said to them to type it in to find it to speed them up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The US completed a deal to sell about 80 advanced new F16s to Taiwan last year. The F16 deal was on the table in the W Bush era, but it was actually the governing KMT that nixed the deal not the PRC.

    Could be a precursor to an F35 sale to Taiwan if the PRC turn up the heat further.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    Don't know how true this is but have read that the US is wary of their best equipment being sold to Taiwan due to there being loads of Chinese spies in military/politics



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Trump signed off on it. The American aerospace industry and Dep of Defence always wanted the sale but elements in the KMT blocked it in case Beijing spat the dummy. The DPP realizing the looming threat were more amenable to the sale.

    *The actual number of F16s in the deal is 66, not the 80 as I previously stated. Significant air defence platform nonetheless and the Taipei is trying to bring forward the delivery of the planes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    Like another poster said, I feel China will try wear them down slowly, before trying anything, and it will have to be meticulously planned. But even then, it would not be easy. The Taiwan army are well armed, and well trained, in my opinion better trained than the Chinese.


    It definitely wouldn't be over in a few days. Can see the Chinese though throwing waves at the Taiwanese forces, as they won't care about loses.


    My only fear is that western politics can do absolutely nothing swiftly, so the help Taiwan might need could be slow coming, which would be disastrous. Intervention would need to occur before the island falls, as there is no way the west would risk the civilian casualties that could occur if they had to try retake the island.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    In this case, they don't need to be what they once were. People are blowing China's military power out of proportion, and lessening the military of their neighbors too much.

    The invasion of Taiwan would alter the balance of power in Asia, which means that both S.Korea and Japan would involve themselves, along with Australia (who would love any excuse to hit China). Japan has an excellent Navy, far more modern and effective than China. S.Korea has a very good Airforce, and their own lesser navy capable of taking on Chinese invasion forces aiming to maintain an invasion of Taiwan. And then there's the US forces already based in Taiwan, S.Korea, and Japan. And on top of that, India could easily decide to join in, as it would be an excellent chance to hurt China without a fight on their own borders.

    Sure, I do believe an invasion of Taiwan is likely before Xi dies, and the Chinese economy buckles.. both of which are likely over the next few years. However, China suffers from a wide range of problems both with it's technology, and the range of hardware that has been produced, over the outdated equipment still at hand. Might as well add in the weakness of their national infrastucture, and the amount of corruption which causes the usual inefficiencies.

    TBH Even without the US, I suspect China would have a hard time invading and maintaining control over Taiwan. The quality of most Chinese troops is dubious. They have some well trained well equipped forces, but the majority lag far behind them. They have had problems with issues like poor eyesight, and changing body types, which has affected their ability to provide pilots, and tank operators, along with the other specialist units that require better physical characteristics.

    Lastly, China has been having real problems internally with social unrest, and their propaganda machine hasn't been as effective as before. The younger generations aren't quite as gung-ho for China as the older generations, and are more likely to question the state of things. Yes, if China was attacked, the vast majority of Chinese people would support the government.. but any invasion of Taiwan, while gaining a lot of support for reunification, wouldn't be considered a defensive war, and so, would cause social problems, and avoidance of military service... especially once the economy further declined, and the mainland started being hit by "allied" air forces.

    Nah. Taiwan will be China's swan song.. the retarded gesture that ends their dominance in the region.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    We are so reliant on China because we use them so much. We take advantage of the slave cheap labour. We could move operations elsewhere but that would mean less profits and we don't do that.

    Russia has us on gas etc. yes. Ireland could stop laundering money for Putin's oil pals for example.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Seen that not sure they would get f35s ,it would actually suit them to have them it's not exactly a fighter in the traditional sense but would give them a great stand off option in contested areas , China is already flying exact clones of the f35 and other US designed aircraft ,

    There have been rumors for several years that Japan was being helped develop its own stealth aircraft based off the YF23 which was the only competition to the YF22 which became the F22 ,the YF23 was apparently better and more capable in every sense ,it may suit Taiwan having an involvement in developing such a new and capable stealth aircraft that can be produced locally



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Can see the Chinese though throwing waves at the Taiwanese forces, as they won't care about loses.

    Don't be too sure about that. Times have changed. Education and improved standards of living have altered the perception of many people, so I'm doubtful that the Chinese people themselves would be too interested charging fixed emplacements with an apple. Those days are gone. Party indoctrination and national pride can only go so far when you've decided to uplift your own population.

    Yes, the government won't care about losses... until they can no longer hide/alter the casualty reports coming back. Any war now will be well covered in private/public media, and that means that they won't be able to hide severe casualties, and that will affect morale both in the military and at home.

    Now, if Mao was in control, I'd agree with you... but it's not the 60s/70s anymore. The average Chinese people is far different from what the general population was like back then.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's already happening with businesses/manufacturing moving to Vietnam, and Africa. There are plenty of low cost nations out there as an alternative to China. It'll take time for it to happen, but it will happen. Fact is, it was already happening before covid, due to tightening restrictions by the CCP on foreign business, the increased corruption, and the rising operating costs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    I'd agree with some of what you say, but in China, there is little to no public or private media. The CCP controls all narratives.


    True, much bigger or massive losses may be harder to hide for most cases, but the censorship in China is unsurpassed and on a scale not seen anywhere else in the world. Any conflict breaking out, will have a narrative based around one premise, and one alone.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus


    I remember during the boom years Fianna Fail trumpeting a FF delegation and young entrepreneurs who went on a beano to China.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,009 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Not sure if that level of escalation would happen. As soon as a blockade happens then a new trade war(one where perhaps zero trade occurs between us and china) happens and you have millions of middle class on both sides going apeshit about declining standards of living. The greed of the middle class will be what saves us from the futility of major wars.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It was one of their better ideas then.. because Ireland has done very well from their relationship with China. I know a variety of Irish companies who got their start with the Chinese market, and are now truly international. Then, there's all the trade agreements that Ireland has managed with China.

    Economically, China has been good for most smaller EU nations that don't rely on manufacturing to support their own economies.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The CCP controls all narratives.

    That's only true from a published media perspective... although even then, there's a variety of media outlets that started in HK and GZ, and have since moved their operations abroad, to maintain their independence from the CCP.

    There's no need for alternative media. The range of social media options in China is varied, and impossible to completely monitor/control. My own wechat feed has loads of posts which contains information that the CCP wouldn't want posted on a website. What happens on peoples personal feeds tends to be ignored, whereas what is made openly public is slammed hard with censorship.

    True, much bigger or massive losses may be harder to hide for most cases, but the censorship in China is unsurpassed and on a scale not seen anywhere else in the world. Any conflict breaking out, will have a narrative based around one premise, and one alone.

    Untrue actually. A number of Asian countries, and others strictly control their Internet... and anyway, most Chinese people have access to VPNs which while not perfect in avoiding the censorship, is still a very viable option. The Chinese great firewall was never as comprehensive as many people thought anyway. I could see RTE the whole time I was in China (12 years), same with boards, or a variety of BBS type sites. It was only the big nations that were blocked, along with the main sites....

    People have some rather unrealistic views about what it's like in China... you're simply swallowing the propaganda (both Chinese and foreign) yourself.



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    will be interesting to see what materialises when China finish building and upgrading the air force bases close to the coast of the Taiwan straight....



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Just look at the Tiananmen Square massacre Google and other Search engines removing all mention of it due to the demands of China ,the same with removing apps for apps stores that the they don't want people having access to ,and anyone who has a Chinese phone ,tablet and computer come with inbuilt software that Can automatically censor any decidedly anti Chinese social media or other posts by the owners of Chinese devices including over sea's users here or elsewhere ,

    China has the ability to control what ever narrative they choose



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,396 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    "Just look at the Tiananmen Square massacre Google and other Search engines removing all mention of it due to the demands of China"


    Really?

    Edit: just read your post again and I'm assuming you mean Google in China.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    The f16 is an old platform even if updated though that's my point, they aren't getting F35's are they.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,609 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Assuming that China would overrun Taiwan in a matter of maybe 2 or 3 weeks what would them trying to maintain control then look like? Its a different situation than Hong Kong in so far as Beijing already had their proxies like Carrie Lam in power there so a take over was easier as a result. But Taiwan is a republic thats been independent for 70 years, the population there arent just going to roll over even after China wins an initial military victory. You would have to think it would descend into guerilla warfare between the Taiwanese and the Chinese army

    Its doesnt bear thinking about but the only way I could see them maintaining control on the island is by turning it into an absolute police state with facial recognition CCTV on every single street corner and then backed up by curfews and massive concentration camps on the mainland for objectors and those who continue to fight. Theres 23 million Taiwanese with 300,000 in the military all of whom will resent any Chinese takeover with every sinue of their being. The Chinese have 1.5 million Uighurs already locked up in Xinang but are they ready to do multiples more of that from the backlash they would get from the Taiwanese? Out of the 23 million Taiwanese how many are they going to have to put in concentration camps, 4 million, 5 million, more?

    I think China invading Taiwan would be the easy part, its what would have to happen afterwards that might have Beijing thinking twice about their plans. If the CCP in Beiijing are seriously considering locking up millions of Taiwanese in concentration camps then they are absolute psychopaths and the west really does need to deal with them before an invasion even begins.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭Brucie Bonus




  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The F16 is actually better than the F35 in most cases ,it's definitely a superior dog fighter and close combat than the F35 , massively cheaper too

    Different tools for different jobs

    They could do with a few squadrons of F15 airsuperiority aircraft



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,057 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    And engagement, at an economic and diplomatic level, will help all parties here; there is no reason for violence to be the sensible option. It only hurts everyone. Anyone who throws out violent words need to be scorned.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,390 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    There is no engagement at a diplomatic level with China in regards to Taiwan.

    Hopefully more EU countries will jump in and align with the countries below.




  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Assuming that China would overrun Taiwan in a matter of maybe 2 or 3 weeks what would them trying to maintain control then look like? Its a different situation than Hong Kong in so far as Beijing already had their proxies like Carrie Lam in power there so a take over was easier as a result. But Taiwan is a republic thats been independent for 70 years, the population there arent just going to roll over even after China wins an initial military victory. You would have to think it would descend into guerilla warfare between the Taiwanese and the Chinese army.

    Taiwan has a Chinese nationalist party, and while they've lost a lot of influence since the debacle in HK, they've still got a wide range of people who previously supported them. There's plenty of Taiwanese who would be willing to work with the CCP, if Chinese troops controlled the country, in addition to those who consider themselves already loyal to China. HK was different because of the lease with the British, giving some legitimacy to the "return" of Chinese authority. There's no similar legitimacy with an occupation of Taiwan.

    Personally, I suspect they'll do what Chinese people do best. Grin and bear the occupation, hoping that international pressure or military involvement by others will bring about their freedom again. There will likely be some violent resistance by Taiwanese military, militia, and young people in general, but it's doubtful they'll achieve much considering the Chinese will likely flood the country and reinforce martial law, with Chinese law being applied. That's not an easy situation to face for any Taiwanese person...

    Its doesnt bear thinking about but the only way I could see them maintaining control on the island is by turning it into an absolute police state with facial recognition CCTV on every single street corner and then backed up by curfews and massive concentration camps on the mainland for objectors and those who continue to fight.

    Which requires time and money. The application of surveillance has only been implemented in the major cities on mainland China. It's very expensive to setup and maintain.. and China's economy isn't doing that great right now, never mind if a war was ongoing. Nah. They'll use what they already have. A massive population to monitor the streets. They already do it on the mainland, with police booths on most streets of any population center.

    The concentration camps scenario is highly unlikely because the Taiwanese are seen as being Chinese. The Uighurs are not, and that provides a lot of leeway in how Beijing decides to treat them. Concentration camps would go against 60 years of propaganda, that the CCP is bringing their wayward cousins back into the fold. Nah. Likely there will be detainment camps, similar to US off-book detainment centers, for those who violently resist Chinese authority, and then, more public re-education centers with humane treatment for everyone else.

    I think China invading Taiwan would be the easy part,

    I wouldn't agree there. Geography has ensured that the Chinese will face problems getting their troop transports, and supply barges to where they can offload easily... all the while they're facing submarine attacks from the Allies. Taiwan has had decades to prepare for any invasion, and know the few places where heavy equipment could be offloaded. A pure light infantry invasion could be defeated easily enough... it's when China can get it's heavier equipment on Taiwan that things would go against the Taiwanese.

    its what would have to happen afterwards that might have Beijing thinking twice about their plans. If the CCP in Beiijing are seriously considering locking up millions of Taiwanese in concentration camps then they are absolute psychopaths and the west really does need to deal with them before an invasion even begins.

    Ahh well..., I don't think you understand the Chinese mindset. Outsiders are less than human and can be treated any way the CCP wants. It's different with those who are considered to be "Chinese". At least publicly, and the public impression is very important in Chinese culture. They're not going to be putting anyone they consider to be Chinese in concentration camps. They'll find a more "acceptable" answer for that.. probably a mix of executions of resistance fighters, and re-education for everyone else.

    Taiwan is a very sensitive topic for Chinese people. They're considered to be Chinese like themselves, and that will affect what the CCP can implement.. and TBH, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see most Taiwanese roll over and play along with the Chinese occupation. It's a very big part of Chinese (and in this case, that includes Taiwan), to simply accept, and deal with the problems in life.. and a Chinese occupation would fall into that.

    It's not as if anyone, except the CCP, believes that they can hold on to Taiwan forever. Most reasonable people will understand that a combination of international pressure (UN/EU/etc) and military application will likely free the Taiwanese, and if that takes a few years... they'll accept it, because it's highly unlikely that China could resist international pressure for an extended period.

    It was different for Russia, and their military adventures. Nobody cared what went on in Eastern Europe. What happens with Taiwan does matter because it affects trade.. which means that China will face pressure constantly.



Advertisement