Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Junkyard Tom · 10-10-2021 05:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001294#Comment_118001294

Yes, and I'm sure the census results will allow the Irish government to tell people in the north, should a border be reintroduced, that they can use the GFA to bring it to an end permanently, essentially setting the clock on Unification as there would be little else to discuss.

fash · 10-10-2021 06:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001355#Comment_118001355

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1447114207892279297?s=20

This suggests that high visibility and replaceable targets have been selected - It also suggests UK is vulnerable to targeting of Scotland

breezy1985 · 10-10-2021 06:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001574#Comment_118001574

Funny enough Irish whiskey was the "whiskey of empire" until independence which bankrupt most distilleries and forced most of the remaining few to coalesce in Middleton to survive

I'm sure things won't be that dire for scotch but Irish whiskey which has already seen a worldwide resurgence thanks to the likes of Diagio could really do well out of Brexit

Seathrun66 · 10-10-2021 06:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000824#Comment_118000824

"These talks will go to the wire before a last-minute fudge that saves face on both sides. It's how the EU has always worked and this time will be no exception."

In many circumstances yes, but when facing an opponent with no cards to play you just wait until the UK folds and tries to claim some victory. Even the dumbest of the dumb British cabinet (much competition there) must realise their situation is entirely hopeless if they enter a trade and legal war with the EU. But maybe I overestimate their intellect.

Seathrun66 · 10-10-2021 06:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117997845#Comment_117997845

Nonsense re 5/6m EU citizens in the UK.

In terms of visas many applied whilst there. Many others applied after leaving to keep their options open. Many others applied despite never having worked there, again to keep their options open. Hundreds of thousands of repeat applications also according to official government figures. And hey, take account of false and spurned applications also.

The UK government estimate was that there were 3.1m EU citizens in the UK and that unaccounted for hundreds of thousands have left since Brexit. Not only HGV drivers and abbatoir workers but across the spectrum. And numbers continuing to leave so we'll possibly soon have more UK citizens in the EU than the reverse.

Seathrun66 · 10-10-2021 06:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000935#Comment_118000935

Tories 8 points up. Where did you get this, some outlier poll?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-labour-red-wall-seats-poll-b1931890.html

Seathrun66 · 10-10-2021 06:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001044#Comment_118001044

That story is not from The Times but from the (reliable😀😀) Daily Mail of 21 March 2021.

To make an application you do not need to be resident of a country. Shall I explain to Padraig178 and the Daily Mail how the internet works?

Retr0gamer · 10-10-2021 06:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001612#Comment_118001612

Eh, it was prohibition that did that, which just so happened to coincide with Irish independence. The yanks couldn't import their preferred Irish whiskey.

To say it was because of independence is just lies.

Padraig178 · 10-10-2021 06:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001653#Comment_118001653

YouGov.

The same poll company quoted in your six day old article but this time with a poll from three days ago.

From memory the Tories retain a consistent average lead in the polls of around 4%.Only Tony Blair has managed to overturn such a large deficit to take power in recent decades and Starmer is no Blair.

breezy1985 · 10-10-2021 06:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001681#Comment_118001681

Well articles I have read on the subject blame the post independence trade war bit a quick Google brings up articles blaming a number of things including both our answers

So don't call me a liar when you are clearly uninformed on the subject yourself

fash · 10-10-2021 06:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001624#Comment_118001624

Some see advantage in entering a trade war: most really, really hate the EU, some think that if the EU agrees to something, that means you could have pushed further - and that the EU has more to give in relation to Ireland; some wish to permanently damage the relationship between UK & EU further; some think that for internal political advantage they can blame the EU for future shortages.

Seathrun66 · 10-10-2021 06:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001708#Comment_118001708

Please provide a link. The YouGov poll of 4 October that I posted has Labour on 40% and the Tories on 41%. There is no 8% gap. If you're not telling lies then please post that poll you've quoted.

Strazdas · 10-10-2021 07:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001645#Comment_118001645

The idea that one in ten people living in the UK are EU citizens does seem very hard to believe. They already have around 6m non EU people in the country, which would thus equate to one in five people in Britain being born outside the UK (if you believe the 6m EU figure).

Seathrun66 · 10-10-2021 07:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001738#Comment_118001738

6m figure is a nonsensical Brexiteer-engineered number. See my recent post above. The Office for National Statistics (UK govt official) have rubbished that figure as has been pointed out by some posters above. It's bol*ocks basically!

Padraig178 · 10-10-2021 07:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001729#Comment_118001729

I'm new around these parts so am unable to post a link but if you go to the YouGov website you will see the latest poll from three days ago on the first page. Con 39% Lab 31%.

breezy1985 · 10-10-2021 07:33PM

They also have on putting government approval at 53% against and only 25% for

Strazdas · 10-10-2021 08:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001758#Comment_118001758

Latest polls also suggest though that the public think Brexit is going very badly - I think only 15% or something think it's a success (a deafening silence on these type of numbers from the Brexiteer / Leave godfathers).

Jim2007 · 10-10-2021 09:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001200#Comment_118001200

In order to save yourself some embarrassment, go read the the WTO rules in respect of trade agreements. And then come back and tell us how the UK would manage to get all the members to agree to a deal that fails to meet the basic rules of the WTO. And you need all members to agree, not a majority. And then while you are at it, you can take a look at the trade agreements signed between the UK, Canada and Japan and note the provisions require both Canada and Japan to get the agreement of the EU in their deals with the UK.

The idea that the UK can do whatever it wants with no consequences is simply nonsense. The UK will have to comply with the agreements they signed, the only question is what the EU will allow them for a face saving exercise - sausages as a recognised national food being exempt seems appropriate.

Professor Moriarty · 10-10-2021 09:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001758#Comment_118001758

Here you go.

ancapailldorcha · 10-10-2021 10:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001758#Comment_118001758

Mod: You can insert a space to break the link so it can be copied by another user. Making claims and refusing to back them up is not permitted here.

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-10-2021 10:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001758#Comment_118001758

Eh? there is no difficulty in providing links. Nothing new about this website!

Anyhow, here is a link to opinion polls over the last few months

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

Cookie_Monster · 11-10-2021 12:31AM

Bloomberg via Office for National Statistics think differently

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-17/u-k-lost-200-000-eu-nationals-as-brexit-and-the-pandemic-struck

There were 3.5 million EU nationals living in the country compared with 3.7 million in 2019, Office for National Statistics figures published Friday show.

EDIT: Link works, no idea why the title of it changed

joeysoap · 11-10-2021 12:42AM

very hard to believe there’s 6m Eu citizens living in the Uk. Cerainly not as obvious as the DE or DT we shouldn’t forget the Sunday Times was / is pro Brexit.( And some articles are very right wing) Dominic Lawson is a regular contributor.

i get the ST most weekends. But in am aware of its politics and views.

J Mysterio · 11-10-2021 01:25AM

Not sure how I missed this, but very revealing indeed.

Panelist 1

• 'You will have a two speed UK' i.e. NI outperforming Britain.

• 'NI-Ireland links damaging to the union'.

Panelist 2

• Increase in NI-Ireland trade due to protocol - 'incentives work'. i.e. the protocol is an imcentive to NI-Ireland trade. i.e. it's better to trade within EU.

Panelist 3 - Frost

• "We are definitely seeing supply chains being reordered"

• "Trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland has gone up a lot"

• "Businesses do respond very quickly to incentives" - acknowleding priviliged position of NI with SM access.

• 'The UK landbridge has collapsed... "That's one reason we can't wait very long to solve this problem" - Ireland, and now NI, diverting from Brexit Britain.

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1445058698380992517?s=20

Conclusion

The protocol is good for Northern Ireland, and Frost, Johnson and co. can't allow that - it will show Brexit to be the absolutely farcical disaster it is.

As NI is adapting so quickly, 'they have to act fast'. It's amazing he is so frank about this. It's like a the villain in a Bond movie telling him their evil plan in advance - naive, but not unexpected.

Padraig178 · 11-10-2021 10:29AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118002629#Comment_118002629

Pretty depressing figures for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle.

Starmer is doomed over his post-referendum Brexit stance of trying to reverse the result in exactly the same way no-one took Clegg and the LibDems seriously after their tuition fees u-turn.

Swilling around in the mix are all those Brexit party voters - where will they go next time ?

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2021 10:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118003517#Comment_118003517

So some posters dislike Starmer because he's not remain enough even though Britain has left and would have to rejoin while others disparage him for wanting to reverse Brexit.

pixelburp · 11-10-2021 11:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118002903#Comment_118002903

Well, there it is I guess. I certainly had wondered what on earth the reasoning was for fighting tooth and nail over the NI Protocol - and what the end-goal was. Of course, it never had anything to do with the well-being of Northern Ireland itself, but naked desperation to preserve the "integrity" of Brexit by crippling the one region that might shield itself from the worse effects of it. All kind of obvious in hindsight, but still galling to watch this poker-faced attempt to disrupt peace and prosperity within the UK's own borders.

Padraig178 · 11-10-2021 11:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118003595#Comment_118003595

Thereby hangs the dilemma that Starmer faces.How to move on from Brexit and regain all those traditional voters who left because of Labour's post-referendum stance on it when his party membership clearly still favours not just Brexit but much of Corbynism.

He seems a decent enough person but I'm not convinced he is the party's long-term solution.

His only hope is the economy and something fairly dramatic happening to it in the next couple of years.

ancapailldorcha · 11-10-2021 11:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118003646#Comment_118003646

There was once a time when Brexiters, here and elsewhere were loudly claiming that the EU would punish the UK for leaving because the UK couldn't be allowed to do well outside of the EU. Now, Northern Ireland can't be allowed to prosper when it is partly inside the EU while the rest of the UK has fully detached.

murphaph · 11-10-2021 11:19AM

Coveney has spoken to Morning Ireland about the new ECJ demand:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1011/1252929-coveney-brexit-latest/

He is basically reiterating what he posted on twitter.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Comments