Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I agree that lack of supply is the biggest determinant of price but regardless of who is in power their are barriers to increasing supply.

There is no shortage of land that could be built on to increase supply. The issue is that the land is either not zoned for residential or is being horded by developers. If there was more land zoned for residential this would lower the value of land being horded by developers and reduce the cost of new houses. But it's not as simple as just increasing the amount of residential zoned land because doing so without a strategic plan would only lead to more problems and more land being horded.

The changes that I would like to see are:

• A use it or lose it policy with the rezoning of land that is residential land that is horded back to non-residential if not being used within a specific time period.
• Heavily Tax profits on rezoning of land - This would prevent people from buying non-residential land and sitting on it waiting for it to be rezoned to make a profit in the future.
• Compulsory purchase orders by the state of land that was previously zoned as residential and is now non-residential due to the use it or lose policy.
• The state would then rezone the land back to residential and build affordable housing on it. (It would be affordable due to the reduced land cost)

The level of corporate debt has increased during the pandemic along with the risks associated with it.

The act of fed stepping in buying pretty much any debt in early 2020 (including junk) provides investors with comfort that in the event of a crisis in the debt market central banks would step in to prevent a crisis.

The Evergrande implosion is challenging this assumption because China is not stepping in and allowing it to play out.

No seller on a private treaty sale needs accept any offer even if it's at or above the asking price

immigrants some may not be able to buy but they will have to be housed as this is the nature of our lift leaning political sphere in this country throw in Sinn Fein will probably be in power an even more left wing alternative to the current political structure. The eye watering rents will be paid by billy and bobby the tax payer.

you make an interesting point about regulation, especially considering your love of conspiracy theories linking political parties to construction. Here’s 1 for you - what influence will Tom McFeely have on building regs in the Republic if Sinn Fein get into government?

Rents were rising substantially partly because prices of most other basics were stable or falling. Property saw the opportunity, marched in and hovered up spare available cash

Do you think these rents will be sustainable when their is significant inflation and added taxation on essential consumer goods and services.

I know that,im just curious what the process is when you put in a bid less than the asking price,do Auctioneera contact you and let you know if the seller is interested etc..

Interesting theroies from Jeremy Grantham in an interview with Moneyweek.

Hollowing out of the economies by a focus on capital as opposed to labour, leading to a population that are unable to afford the basics.

Jeremy believes we are in a bubble of historic proportions. Interestingly they discuss what bubbles have left us after everything has blown over and the mention how Ireland, USA and Spain had a huge overhang of housing which they see as a positive.

Amazing to think where we are now in a housing crisis from where we have come from

Cheers,the property we are interested in has been bid on numerous times over the past 10 months.Been on and off Auctioneeras site,so theres something up behind the scenes with it.We've a viewing booked so hopefully that will reveal more.We're are only in a position very recently to start looking as our own house has sold.The house is one we really want,but not getting our hopes up as there must be something off when it ,that it still hasn't sold.

Used to live very near that. Take a walk up there at night. And walk up to James Everett behind it (I dare you) :)

Those pictures are not telling you the true story of that location.

Rents were rising because of lack of competition due to under supply of housing...rents will continue to rise in line with CPI regardless of inflation or increases in tax because people won’t have an alternative and have to live somewhere. It’s a captive market.

The first sign of the housing market starting to stabilize will be when there is a glut of properties to rent and as a result rents will fall. Only when this happens will house prices stabilize and in the mean time there will be upward pressure on house prices.

Understand your points hence the mass exodus from the cities to more rural locations.

Repeating the mistakes of the last bubble, building where people may afford but not necessarily where they wish to live.

Of course all this will make the crash worse when it arrives. Prices that are held up by so much government spending will fall off a cliff when gov can no longer pay billions supplementing rents and house prices.

Housing was boosting the coffers of the state in the last bubble. This time it's a massive cost plus embedding huge liabilities through inflation linked long term leasing. Building infrastructure further and further away from where it is needed adding further costs in health, environment, infrastructure and education .

The keyword in your post is "captive ". No sector should be allowed to hold the economy to ransom and that is exactly what is happening right now with housing as described in your post. Failure to deal with it will destroy the economy.

Putting in measures (all available to government at the stroke of a pen) that reduces the markets powers would give us a first mover advantage on the majority of our competitors in the same way that corporation taxes did all those years ago.

The country's prosperity or destruction is available to government . Which will they choose?

Security for generations to come through reasonably priced housing close to people's work

Or

Short term gains at great cost to the state for very wealthy international investors.

It seems such an easy choice for citizens but incredibly difficult for their representatives in power. How odd in a democracy?

I would agree, that international investors has a small portion of Irish properties, but residential land for house cost over 20%, for most parts of Dublin City.