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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭floorpie


    You suppose that the ~10% decrease in effectiveness each month, stopped decreasing at 5 months?

    image.png

    It is of course relevant because some proportion of people are still hospitalised post vaccination. If effectiveness against infection decreases to 0% (for argument's sake) and effectiveness against hospitalisation decreases to 50%, then we will still need strict lockdowns due to unfixed capacity issues in hospitals.

    Getting infected is no longer an issue for the majority.

    Getting infected was never really an issue for the majority. Spreading it to at-risk people was the risk, and this paper shows that vaccination alone will not prevent this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 389 ✭✭Vaccinated30


    So the at risk pople we were preventing spreading it to are no longer at risk... So spread away...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭floorpie


    ? They of course are at risk still. 60% effectiveness against hospitalisation at 5 months for certain age groups regardless of comorbidities.

    And bear in mind, this is 60% only relative to unvaccinated people. It isn't an indicator of absolute numbers. I.e. if a billion unvaccinated people are hospitalised and 400M vaccinated people are hospitalised, this is 60% effectiveness.

    So no, probably not spread away



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 569 ✭✭✭Avon8


    Nobody is celebrating NZ moving on from Zero Covid though?

    There seems to be some strange snarky comments, especially on twitter, on this subject over the past two days. That somehow people are celebrating NZ's 'defeat' in this regard despite having 27 total deaths. They're missing the point so spectacularly that I'm wondering are they doing it on purpose.

    What this is, is the final inarguable proof that it was a ridiculous strategy for Ireland that had no chance of working, the increased transmission of Delta notwithstanding. Despite most people realising this, it wasn't as if this was some sort of fringe idea. Our likely future leaders in government adopted this as their strategy of choice, as did others in opposition. The misguided public momentum behind it led to MHQ, causing hundreds of Irish citizens abroad to miss funerals of loved ones, a 2k fine for a trip to the airport and was the pressure behind a host of other draconian restrictions, including the reimposition of the 5k limit.

    So while NZ accepting that the strategy no longer works isn't a cause for celebration, the humiliation of the likes of ISAG and the death of their dangerous idea absolutely is. Seeing their buzzword argument go up in smoke, and their final descent into the realms of laughing stock is both satisfying and positive for the future. An investigation into their funding and perhaps charges for their aim of deliberately 'spreading fear' would be fantastic next steps.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    1,124 new cases, 349 people in hospital , up 16 from yesterday, 65 in ICU, up one.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,657 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    I remember pre vaccines when ireland was locked down due to 50 in icu. I found it surprising that such a low number was considered too much for the healthcare system. Now it's more than that and all restrictions are being dropped?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,917 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    It's because the exponential growth element has been removed.

    They could extrapolate from 50 in ICU to many more in ICU in a number of weeks.That can no longer be done due to the vaccine rates.Therefore we no longer need the same measures, for now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,657 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,424 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    So now you're just making up data, the effectiveness drops, it does not drop to 0 as you seem to be lying about, yet again.

    But, as I said, keep on digging down.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So the government want to extend the emergency powers by 3 months and there is a vote on it tomorrow?

    If it’s voted against, does that mean I won’t have to legally wear a mask in shops from Sunday onwards when the powers expire?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 493 ✭✭BobHopeless


    Does anyone know how long the effects of the vaccine last for? Ive heard of two separate cases of people vaccinated early on in the year ending up in hospital this week from two separate households who have Covid. Thanks, Bob.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    It's not going to be voted against. Gov have the majority.

    Also this is only the legislation relating to indoor hospitality and the use of vaccine certs.

    The emergency powers that the minister has have already been extended by the maximum of 1 time a few months ago to run to start of February.

    Indoor hospitality and vaccine certs is a different piece of legislation and therefore also needs a vote.

    To note, just because the provision for legislation is extended doesn't mean it gets enacted



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The effects of the vaccine last forever in that the virus will no longer be novel. The instantaneous immune response wanes naturally meaning over time the immune system won’t respond as quickly. The infectiousness of the virus means that in some people the virus will be replicating before the immune system can respond. For those with a weak immune system this could mean a serious infection. This is the fault of the immune system and not the vaccine. Unlike with viruses such as small pox and polio, respiratory viruses replicate initially in the upper airway where immune response is suppressed, except in those with chronic hay fever, meaning the virus gets a head start. Short term a vaccine is like deploying the full police force at all entrances to the bank. Long term, it’s like giving the security guards a photo fit. If they see the intruder, they will identify and apprehend him, however they may not see them in time. Other viruses replicate in areas of the body where the “guards” patrol frequently and there are not many pathogens. Respiratory viruses congregate initially where there are lots of potential pathogens and fewer “security guards”. They can sneak in unnoticed and cause a lot of trouble before the body gets a chance to react.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭alentejo


    This day last year, NPHET recommended a 4 week level 5 lock down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,841 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    Never forget



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Ah yes

    When Tony returned early to work and set off the bombshell



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    raind, is Dr Martin Kulldorff right in what he says here: https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1440798816949587972


    He says that natural immunity is stronger and longer lasting than vaccine immunity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Is there anyone here who got covid and has suffered hair loss several months after?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    We're finally exiting the pandemic and covid life it seems. It's strange...we lived with it for nearly 2 years now and it was so important, so worrying that it will be weird to exit it completely.

    So much has happened in the last 18/20 months.

    Living through it will be something we'll never forget. The scenes from Chin/Italy, lockdowns being announced, NPHET briefings, the re-openings and further lockdowns, economic responses, Trump/Biden election, vaccine development



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,286 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,582 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    I'm sure the next crisis is just around the corner to keep us all on the edge of our seats...

    Now this really would be a much more serious problem than Covid at its worst but no evidence of H2H transmission.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It also needs to be tempered with a bit of caution. The WHO regularly raise the alarm over bird flu' but media stories tend to make it an undeniable "fact".



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Natural and vaccine immunity in the long term will tend to the same level. Natural immunity may be stronger in the short term due to the immune response initially being stronger. With all HCoV that are endemic in humans, repeat infection is prevalent in the long term even though there is short term heightened immunity, but residual resistance usually prevent serious infection. The vaccine is the exact same except the duration and seriousness of infection vs vaccine means that there is the potential that the heightened immunity lasts longer. Its like if your house got flooded - you will be far more vigilant the next time in rains that if you were told you live in a flood plain



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭Widdensushi




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    Yes, happens a lot to women - only if you'd had a fever as part of Covid though.

    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I expect the primary difference between vaccine immunity and natural immunity is the intensity of the invasion. The mRNA vaccines deliver a fixed dosage that instructs your body to produce a relatively fixed number of proteins that cause your immune system to react. The number of cells your body produces in response is therefore also relatively fixed.

    With an active infection, there's a battle between your body producing cells and the virus which is continually attempting to replicate itself.

    Thus it seems more likely that the peak number of cells the immune system produces to fight an active infection is higher than it is for a vaccine response.

    Like you say, this probably results in a stronger immunity over the short term, but reducing until there's virtually no difference. That is, e.g. after 3 months natural immunity is 30% stronger, after 6 months it's 10% stronger and by 12 months is basically the same. (Figures just for illustration)



  • Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 10,831 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,617 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The other difference however is that mRNA vaccines only produce select proteins of the virus (S1/S2), whereas a natural infection will produce antibodies to the entire virus sequence. In theory this should yield most robust immune response to variant strains.



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