Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

There were four models, optimistic , central 1, central 2 and pessimistic. We've been a lot closer to optimistic on cases than anything else. Yes, they overestimated the upper end of cases and hospitalisations. At the time they didn't seem to take into account the rate of vaccination and cumulative totals now do little more than frighten people.

For example, our ICU numbers have been between 50 and 60 for the last month, yet a week of admissions would record a cumulative total of 100 or more, running to 300+ over a month.

Speaking of hospitals we are now down to 292 and 60 in ICU.

Hospital numbers at 292 this morning, down 17 on yesterday.

Daily changes are somewhat meaningless, but if you smooth out the averages, we can make half-decent stabs at projections. Been a while since I did one of these, but roughly.

• By 20th Sept (next phase): < 250 in hospital
• By end Sept: < 200 in hospital
• By 20th October (big lifting): < 100 in hospital

Uncertainty increases the further we go out though.

ICU a little harder to peg because we're yet to see the impact of falling cases. What we know from before that there's a lag but ICU numbers generally never go above a 1:3 ratio with hospital numbers. 1:4-5 s more typical. So tied to the 3 numbers above, you're talking ICU nos. at:

50-60 on 20th Sept

40-50 by end Sept

20-30 by 20th October.

There is a disparity between those who are conservative and still bang on about being safe. And a large minority now that have abandoned covid and couldn't care less.

They wear masks in shops etc out of politeness, received the vaccine so they could travel and drink indoors.

@bucketybuck wrote:

PR is not his job. It's not up to him to avoid saying things lest the media cherrypick them into disaster scenarios. His only role is to provide clear, factual guidance.

In this case, he is to appear before a committee to make statements about the public health situation. But it's a weird format where he has to submit his statements in writing to the committee first, and then for some reason appear in person to say the exact same thing.

The media have decided to take this statement and cherry pick the most negative bits out of it. This is not a press release or a media statement by Holohan, it's an update to an Oireachtas committee. He would be negligent in his role to not give a full and frank update. Yet every time he does this, people seem to go mental and accuse him of scaremongering, even though it's media who are doing it.

Well, we are doing just that next week and then we are waiting another 4 weeks just in case so all you really might get is it happening two weeks earlier.

Conservative as ever. We'll never change.

Ah the oul "anticipatory behaviour"'

Sticking to their behavioural science led fear model is the problem. Surely they're worried about their worry-o-metre indication now but they'll stick to the mantra.

I suppose he'll blame the "high levels of disease in the community" for outbreaks in nursing/care homes.

Let's hope they're asked what extras are planned to minimize future outbreaks in these settings.

This.

I was in at the All-Ireland on Saturday evening and the stewards were handing out masks before letting people through the turnstiles. Once inside the turnstiles, the masks were ditched and not to be seen again. Barely anyone wearing them. Incredible waste of money and complete nonsense Covid theatre.

How long before our daily cases numbers drop below the 1,000s?

Consistently probably next week with all the kids being tested, but we might see some dips below it this week.

No just one of the pack of nutjobs around who's apparently listening to Dolores Cahill. The gist I get is that the patient's wife is also a nutjob and wanted her husband out, so sent this stupid bastard in to take him out.

Very limited sympathy for this man and his wife if he dies. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Fair play to the doctor for being calm and thinking only of his patient while the other scumbag accused him of being a liar and a murderer. I'm not sure I'd have been able to keep my head.