Could a SF government lead to Civil War Part II?

Fred Cryton · 12-09-2021 1:19pm #1

Two polls today put SF on top.

Thinking ahead to a hypothetical SF government, there is surely a strong chance of a severe constitutional crisis. Think of a SF minister for Justice, minster for Defense. For goodness sake, historically most of the intel fed to the Ministers would be related to SF/IRA themselves! I can see real crunch points where the Army or Guards refuse to carry out orders of a SF minister.

Beyond that, could we get to the point where things escalate to low level conflict between Irish Army and Irish Republican Army....mirroring the political divide between FG/FF and SF? In other words, Civil War Part 2?

Shinnerbots will try to rubbish this but there is a logical pathway to the events described above. Haven't even touched on the economic damage here.

banie01 · 12-09-2021 1:23pm

The IRA that has verifiably put its weapons beyond use?

The Sinn Fein that for the issues with leadership and whether or not the Army Council still pulls the strings? Is the currently most popular party on both sides of the border?

If this is the level of fear stoking nonsense that any party across the floor from Sinn Fein needs to sink to, to try and smear opposing political parties?

It's no fúcking wonder we still discuss actual civil war politics in terms of FF and FG, and just out of curiousity? How are those 2 getting on now?

Fred Cryton · 12-09-2021 1:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117880204#Comment_117880204

Except the intelligence services both Brisih and Irish confirm the Army Council still exists right? ARe you saying they could never source weapons again in future? Pull the other one.

banie01 · 12-09-2021 1:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117880210#Comment_117880210

That you typed out? That it seemed a logical statement to you, in terms of Irish politics? Doesn't do your opinion much good tbh, it displays a lack of critical thinking and a very slanted view of political reality.

The Army Council have been committed to peace since the GFA, Sinn Fein have adopted and integrated into the political process and they are winning votes.

By your logic, they should still be a proscribed organisation. If SF were a serious threat to the peace and security? Given that every government in the history of the state has included FF or FG including the most recent iteration including both. Were there even a credible minority report that SF were pursuing such a path, it would be hammered home by FFG at every single opportunity.

To claim a threat of civil war on foot of a free and fair and PR electoral process is childish pearl clutching tbh.

If SF win power and form a government, I'd expect them to act precisely as the have in the assembly. As a political party.

The gun is out of Irish politics, and scare mongering its return? Despite its improbability says more about the lack of credible vote winning opposition on the Govt benches than it does any penchant for violence on the part of SF.

SF managed to get loopers like Violet Anne Wynne elected. Going in to the next GE, they have the opportunity to target seats and improve their standard of candidate. We either are a democracy with the electoral freedoms and potential risk that entails? Or we are a 1 party state with power residing with FFG, and nowhere else!

Civil war politics indeed.

Fred Cryton · 12-09-2021 1:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117880254#Comment_117880254

You keep going on about FF and FG....There was an Civil War 100 years ago, but neither had an ongoing terrorist campaign over decades that included crinimals, thugs, and vigilantes. And FF did not have an in situ Army Council in the background while in government. And our great grandfathers day was slightly different to our own. So please try harder.

banie01 · 12-09-2021 1:48pm

You see that mention of please try harder?

Take a moment of reflection and try embrace that advice.

12-09-2021 2:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058208473/could-a-sf-government-lead-to-civil-war-part-ii

2/10

markodaly · 12-09-2021 3:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058208473/could-a-sf-government-lead-to-civil-war-part-ii

That will be a big talking point in the next election.

If SF is the front runner to form the next government, you can be sure as hell to high water that there will be severe scrutiny over the insider dealings of the party.

For example, to what extent does Gerry Adams have influence or other ex PIRA members and leaders.

Who exactly are the boys in West Belfast?

What influence do they have?

Who are the current leaders of the PIRA and what are their exact links to SF?

What are the current links to the PIRA?

What are the current links to criminals like Slab Murphy?

I can definitely see lots of pressure being exerted to such an extent, either the boys in West Belfast will have to retire or disavow any dealings with SF (and visa versa), or they continue on their merry way and there is a **** storm in the new government where it's revealed some SF minister or TD has dealings with some PIRA stooge in a government capacity which will probably mean the fall of the government as their coalition partners (probably labour and the SD who say they will bring SF to heal collapse the government)

10000maniacs · 12-09-2021 3:25pm

It really does not help that Donaldson and the previous DUP leaders keep warning about street violence if the protocol isn't changed substantially. The DUP are the sole war mongers for this street violence. All the other parties see the protocol as necessary given the shade of Brexit they were landed with.

The DUP were the midwives of the particular Brexit we have now (no customs union and single market) and now only have themselves to blame for the resulting protocol. They need to own the aftermath of the Brexit they helped engineer and shut up.

Shebean · 12-09-2021 3:33pm

This thread reminds me of the kind of tactics the church used to keep children and the dim-witted in line.

Hilarity aside, the closest I've seen to anything like forcing will upon the people was the Nice treaty we were forced to vote on twice because the government of the day didn't like the result and of course the FF and FG parties who sold themselves as different to each other going into coalition, because they didn't like that result.

Not to forget the FF/FG parties happy to take the applause for the GFA, but also happy to take a piss on it, when they don't like the results of the latest opinion poll.

The DUP, (friends of FG) are a struggling party looking to remain relevant.

The idea that the most popular party would consider civil war would be insulting where it not so laughable.

blackcard · 12-09-2021 3:34pm

Francie can't be far away

francois · 12-09-2021 4:59pm

Ridiculous premise. No there won't. SF are riding high, especially among younger voters because of the housing issue.

trashcan · 12-09-2021 5:56pm

It’ll be worse than Nazi Germany and Communist Russia combined I tells ya.

Working class heroes · 12-09-2021 6:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881144#Comment_117881144

Are you Francis’ french cousin?

Capt'n Midnight · 12-09-2021 6:42pm

Even if SF could translate the poll into actual votes on they day they still would have to form a government with another party or three. As things stand they are unlikely to find favour with parties of the centre-right or of the left, especially ones with members who have had history with SF.

After the civil war there was a peaceful power change from Cumann na nGaedheal to FF and then from FF to FG.

If you've watched Yes Minister you should know the permanent government is the Civil Service. Or look at how many Unionist party leaders have asked for the head of the head of PSNI on a plate.

Eric Cartman · 12-09-2021 6:46pm

An SF government would almost certainly cause a recession, we’d lose all the confidence of our FDI employers. On top of that they’d remove their hippy drippy socialist cloak and expose the real bleeding heart nationalist, violent SF that their core supporters will for

francois · 12-09-2021 6:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881530#Comment_117881530

Nope

tdf7187 · 12-09-2021 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058208473/could-a-sf-government-lead-to-civil-war-part-ii

Hilarious. I'm beginning to think the Harrisites are in the payroll of the Shinners. The more scaremongering, the more their vote increases.

tdf7187 · 12-09-2021 6:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881700#Comment_117881700

I wouldn't get your knickers in a twist over it. SF are now part of the establishment.

Shebean · 12-09-2021 7:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881700#Comment_117881700

I can see it now, meltdown of the economy, we'd need get in the IMF. We'd have them organising jobs for their friends. Likely one of them will be under criminal investigation. We'll have them throwing tax payer money at their crony business associates under pretend plans to solve crises they create and gifting state contracts to pals...oh, wait.

Unfortunately FF/FG have set the low bar. The premise of the thread is brilliant in a monty python kind of way. The fact that FF/FG still think fearmongering will deflect from who they are.

violent SF that their core supporters will for

It's like the GFA never happened 🙂

mikethecop · 12-09-2021 8:01pm

The Irish Army ( the real one ) would never support a sf government the Gardai either i reckon

force the issue now and implode ,

wait 20 or 30 years ye have some hope the smell of cordite and dead bodies will have faded some by then

Sierra Oscar · 12-09-2021 8:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117882007#Comment_117882007

A lot of younger Gardaí and members of the Defence Forces are SF voters. Younger I mean people right into their mid 30's. 1998 is a long time ago now.