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  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Again what does that 93% even mean?

    2 people out of 100 in hospital instead of 19 out 100 people in hospital once infected?

    Whats the placebo case hospitalisation rate they are comparing it against?

    How do they calculate it?

    4.5 people out of 100 used to go to hospital with covid in Nov 2020, now it’s 2 out of 100 once infected according to HSE stats

    94% decrease of 4.5% CHR from November with no vaccines = 0.3% CHR

    While our CHR is currently 2%

    A 0.3% CHR would have this pandemic over right now

    If we have 2000 cases a day and 500 cases are vaccinated

    500\0.3% = 1.6 admissions a day in fully vaccinated people

    But half the people in hospital are fully vaccinated and we get 40-50 admissions a day now

    So explain how this 93% works in the real world please

    Math don’t check out from our hospital stats

    They should be barely any vaccinated people in there

    Even easier question what’s the COVID hospitalisation rate for fully vaccinated people in Ireland right now?

    It was 4.5% pre vaccines



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,025 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @godzilla1989 wrote:

    Again what does that 93% even mean?

    A 93% reduction of the risk of hospitalisation means that comparing two otherwise equal populations (exposure, age and other risk factors), one of which is vaccinated and the other unvaccinated, the number of people hospitalised in the vaccinated population will be 93% lower than in the unvaccinated population.

    Your error is working from the case rate, which means you are using the wrong denominator (number of cases rather than population size). This ignores the lower risk of becoming a case in the first place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭ohnohedidnt


    That's only 2 weeks after the 2nd dose, by 8-9months its somewhere between 16 - 39% effective, so there will be a lot more vaccinated people sick with covid, than the 93% efficacy number would suggest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,025 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Please cite a source for risk of hospitalisation being reduced to 16-39% after 8-9 months.

    It would be safe assumption from your posting history that you've misunderstood or are sh!tposting again, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Example?

    Out of 1000 cases what’s going the ratio?

    Vaccine vs no vaccine



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Do the math for me then as you know what your talking about

    Sick of these papers ye link with percentages and fancy charts

    Simple question

    1000 old people 65+ get covid

    How many go hospital

    Vaccine vs placebo

    Its a simple question

    Use your 93% effectiveness



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,484 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    93% less vaccinated then unvaccinated. You're missing too many other data points to go further than that, which means you're going to have to go and read the percentages and fancy charts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,025 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    The 93% does not relate only to the CHR, it's the combination of the lowered risk of becoming a case and the lowered risk of then becoming hospitalised.

    edit: in the following infographic, it's 80% efficacy against infection and 70% additional efficacy against hospitalisation, so 1-(0.2x0.3) = 94%.


    Post edited by Lumen on


  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    It’s misleading then

    So 93% effective at hospitalisation once infected is untrue then?

    It has combined efficacy at preventing symptomatic infection to get that lovely 93%

    Make sense seeing as 50% of hospitalisations are fully vaccinated in a lot of countries

    Does anyone have the data on effectiveness at preventing hospitalisation once infected?

    Cause Delta seems to have dropped efficacy at preventing symptomatic infection down big time

    Its all about case hospitalisation rate for me

    If vaccines are not over 90% at preventing hospitalisation once infected they are not what they promised

    Luke wash your hands O Neill said they were 100% effective at preventing at one point on the late late show

    He lied then



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  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    New you wouldn’t answer it

    You accuse me of being full of it

    But your good for posting charts and medical journals here, like all the boards virologists but when asked to do up a simple example of your knowledge you haven’t a clue

    It’s a simple question

    1000 people 65+ years

    What’s the outcome when they get infected

    1000 Vaccinated vs 1000 placebo

    How many go to hospital from each group?

    Should be bread and butter to you



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,025 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @godzilla1989 you're all over the place.

    If vaccines are not over 90% at preventing hospitalisation once infected they are not what they promised

    Vaccines were proven through clinical trials to reduce the risk of infection and disease compared to not having the vaccine. I'm not sure how you're still managing to misunderstand this 18 months into the pandemic.

    The risk reduction of a case becoming hospitalised would be relevant for a treatment, not particularly for a vaccination, because we vaccinate the uninfected.

    I'm out for now. It's like trying to explain music to a hamster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭ohnohedidnt



    Apologies, I was referring to efficacy against infection, not hospitalization. Sources for the efficacy against infection are below.


    www.ft.com/content/23cdbf8c-b5ef-4596-bb46-f510606ab556

    "By August, according to the health ministry, studies showed the Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy against infection falling to 39 per cent, and to as low as 16 per cent for people who had their second shots in January"


    www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

    "The Israeli statistics also appeared to paint a picture of protection that gets weaker as months pass after vaccination, due to fading immunity. People vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, effectiveness was at 75%"


    www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

    Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,484 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Just because you're failing to understand the answer which, all things being equal, is 93% less.

    If things aren't equal (e.g. 900 vaxxed vs 100 un-vaxxed, un-vaxxed having 5% underlying conditions, vs. 10% vaxxed have underlying conditions) the numbers can be different.

    This maths isn't hard and has been said, has been repeated here over and over and in detail, when detail is presented, you won't read it, when detail isn't presented, you claim your question isn't answered.

    If you don't understand it, at least read the conclusions of the studies before trying to draw your own conclusions based on misunderstanding of the numbers.

    edit: and the reason it's not worth working through the numbers with you is that you ignore the conclusion anyway (as you have just done for Lumen, which is a pretty crappy way for you to treat someone who's spoon feeding you information), if I spend time showing you the answer is 20 for unvaccinated and 2 for vaccinated (which is about average for 1000 people unvaxxed vs. vaxxed), then you would run off and find a study where they got the answer of 4 and claim the vaccines don't work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Answer the question

    1000 over 65s each group

    Once infected

    No efficacy bullshit of avoiding infection

    Once infected



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Why do you care so much about this figure? It's only importance is for it to be used to calculate actual important figures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,484 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I just did, 20 for un vax (based on 2% hospitalisation rate) and about 2 for vaxxed (93% efficacy), but your question makes no sense and doesn't apply in the real world.

    And again, I gave you the answer already and you didn't even recognize it was being given.

    And be polite to those giving you the answers, you're on here demanding answers to simple maths problems as if there's some cover up over the effectiveness of vaccines, which is a conclusion you won't be able to reach.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Because we are all going to get infected eventually and I’d like to know what the vaccine effectiveness is once infected vs placebo

    Without efficacy of preventing infection what are we left with?

    Mustn’t be great reading as he refuses to answer



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Here is new one one for your collection from Qatar


    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    All roads lead to Rome.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989



    So 0.2% of vaccinated cases end up in hospital vs 2% unvaccinated?

    Its not 0.2% for the 20 fully vaccinated end up in hospital here everyday?

    That would require 10,000 cases a day?

    Anyway 10 times less chance ending up in hospital sounds great but in reality it’s like the difference between a 55 year old vs 65 year old

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,742 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Where is the 20 fully vaccinated people per day being hospitalized coming from?

    I think you're reading that CDC table wrong, mu take on it, a 75-84 year old, vaccinated is 9x the risk of needing hospital treatment compared to a 18-24 year old.

    Using Astro's figure above, 93% efficiency would make a vaccinated 75-84 year old, less likely to need hospital treatment compared to an unvaccinated 18-24 year old.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,484 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    But it's not, you're completely wrong, and you've just gone and done what I said you would do, which is to take figures and extrapolate them into something nonsensical. You're completely missing all the variables that is in the charts within the studies that you refuse to read.

    You can't make further conclusions out of a simplified question to try and suit your narrative.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Here in Ireland

    Half the hospitalisations are fully vaccinated

    Once infected

    A vaccinated 84 year old with covid less likely to need treatment over a 24 year old unvaccinated with covid 😂

    Do you really believe that ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Once infected

    There are no variables

    Its once infected, I’ve said that clearly, I don’t care about efficacy avoiding infection

    I want to know what happens when you get infected

    I’m still laughing at Wolf and his 84 year old vs 24 year old once infected are the same

    At 84 a stiff breeze could knock you over and kill you



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,484 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Once infected, your immune system tries to fight off the SARS-COV2 virus, and if it doesn't, develops into COVID-19 which can lead to severe disease and death depending on the viral load and efficiency of your immune system.

    I wouldn't laugh at others when everyone is having to dumb down their answers for you or risk a hissy fit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,742 ✭✭✭Wolf359f



    Laugh all you like, that's all based on the data posted here to explain it to you.

    Plenty of elderly 84 year olds have contracted covid and have not needed hospital care. The vaccines reduce that rate down even further.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,742 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    You're going to have to point me to that stat. You mentioned it before and said it was from the HSE.ie site, but I couldn't find it.

    You said 20 a day, now you're saying half. Any chance you can clarify that claim?



  • Registered Users Posts: 382 ✭✭Unicorn Milk Latte


    Ok, just starting to look at the first few, this looks like another deliberate attempt to misconstrue valid research and misrepresent results.


    • mask wearing during dialysis has nothing to do with general mask mandates and mask efficiency
    • face shield efficiency is not the same as mask efficiency, we had consistent recommendations against face shields from the start, because they are ineffective
    • outside masking was never recommended by any scientists here in Europe, there never have been outside mask mandates, so stating that masks are inefficient in outdoor use is old news, and distracts from where it is efficient
    • mask wearing during sports outdoors - no scientist in Europe ever claimed this to be a thing, and, again, no outdoor mask mandates, because they make no sense
    • when a study says 'further research is needed' that's not a conclusion that masks are ineffective
    • pre-Covid studies do not have any significance for mask effectiveness for Covid
    • studies for illnesses that have fundamentally different mechanisms for infection, like influenza, are not relevant for Covid and masking
    • masks for health care personnel in hospital has nothing whatsoever to do with Covid prevention for the general population
    • some of the studies from the earliest day still list fomite transmission as a way to get infected, meaning it's based on flawed understanding of transmission
    • "N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel" -from 2019 - perfect example of an attempt do deliberately obfuscate and mislead
    • "Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks in protecting health care workers from acute respiratory infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis" from 2016 - perfect example of an attempt do deliberately obfuscate and mislead
    • "The use of masks and respirators to prevent transmission of influenza: a systematic review of the scientific evidence" from 2011 - perfect example of an attempt do deliberately obfuscate and mislead
    • "Use of surgical face masks to reduce the incidence of the common cold among health care workers in Japan: a randomized controlled trial" from 2009. Common cold. Seriously.
    • "A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers" - from 2015 - because, you know, using cloth masks instead of medical masks during brain surgery sounds like a really good, reasonable idea.
    • "Postoperative wound infections and surgical face masks: A controlled study" -1991 - hey, how about the mask like collars that your dog gets after surgery? Link to any studies of that? Because, it proves that indoor masking is inefficient for SARS-COV-2 transmission?


    Deliberately misrepresenting valid science to feed conspiracy narratives has become an increasingly common tactic.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Admissions are here

    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

    41 yesterday

    Half in hospital are fully vaccinated so that’s where I got my 20, half of 41



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