Herd immunity is not going to happen

12-08-2021 09:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117740762#Comment_117740762

Well what they always did with regards to flus and colds I suppose. The immunocompromised don't have to be vaccinated or inoculated for herd immunity to work. For herd immunity to work the inoculated need to be greater than R/R-1 of the population. The transmission will die off, although outbreaks are possible.

Pete_Cavan · 12-08-2021 09:28AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741371#Comment_117741371

You claimed "if the vaccinated can often be infected and spread the virus themselves, then the whole concept is out the window". So yeah, nonsense.

The concept of vaccination is not "out the window", there are huge benefits to vaccination even if it doesn't prevent people from getting infected and spreading the virus. As regards herd immunity, even if it requires everyone getting infected with the virus, that can still happen. It was hoped we could achieve herd immunity via vaccination alone but that isn't the only goal of the vaccination plan. The other goals of hugely reduced severe illness and mortality are going very well and can still allow for herd immunity to be achieved even if not via vaccination alone.

Bringing how we protect the vulnerable into it now seems like moving the goalposts from where you started. Would the answer to that question be any different without vaccines? If anything, vaccines have made them easier to protect. Fair enough having a conversation around how we protect the vulnerable but you seem to be making out that vaccines are a problem in that (several times mentioning no chance of reaching herd immunity via vaccination).

12-08-2021 09:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741128#Comment_117741128

Last year's variant wasn't as contagious. If Delta is as contagious as some scientists say then you would expect if someone gets it in a home, then everybody would get it, unless vaccinated.

TonyMaloney · 12-08-2021 09:34AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741580#Comment_117741580

Pete, read the post please. You keep banging on about things I didn't say.

josip · 12-08-2021 09:35AM

Gibraltar not taking any chances achieving herd immunity from a 90-100% vaccination rate.

They've hit 100 and kept going.

(boards has taken a perfectly good image and made it unreadable, here's a link)

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Ardent · 12-08-2021 09:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741221#Comment_117741221

Great response to that hysterical nonsense. This data is very interesting and very encouraging (for younger cohorts especially). Thanks for sharing.

seamus · 12-08-2021 09:41AM

Ultimately the immunocompromised will do what they have always done; take care. The closest I've been to that was a good friend whose boyfriend underwent treatment for leukaemia. The usual fare where they annihilate your bone marrow and replace it with the cancer-free stuff.

Her family home was closer to the hospital than his, so he moved in with her family while he was recovering, and they had to have very strict measures in place for themselves. No visitors were allowed to the home except for a few key people. Even of those key people it was made very clear that the slightest inkling of any illness and they had to stay away until they were better. Everyone living in the house limited their social contacts. My friend convinced work to transfer her to a desk job for a full 12 months where she'd have minimal contact with anyone.

And they had all sorts of contingency plans; where he would go if everyone else got sick. Where one family member would go if they got sick.

The reality is that immunocompromised people have been doing all of these things forever. And they will just continue doing it. The WHO are currently trialling treatments for covid, which should provide some relief/comfort for the immunocompromised. But ultimately the nature of the beast is that we can't perfectly protect them, we can only do our best.

One would hope - if someone is immunocompromised - that their primary and secondary social bubbles would all be fully vaccinated, which will massively limit the potential for a breakthrough infection to them.

Pete_Cavan · 12-08-2021 09:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741605#Comment_117741605

No I don't, I have used your exact words several times.

You talk about not reaching herd immunity via vaccination, why? We can still reach it via infection, only vaccines mean we avoid most of the negative consequences of that happening naturally.

You asked how do we protect the vulnerable, would the answer to that question be any different without vaccines?

machaseh · 12-08-2021 10:02AM

So develop a new vaccine that works better against the delta variant.

Once all who WANT to be vaccinated have been fully vaccinated and their vaccine has activated (which takes 2 weeks after the last jab), we should remove ALL coronavirus restrictions. All of them.

floorpie · 12-08-2021 10:07AM

Based on data from other places (e.g., Estimation of Total Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas | medRxiv) it's likely that a notable proportion of people are immune but don't realise it via asymptomatic infection. As far as I'm aware, calculations for vaccination levels needed for herd immunity assume statistical independence between those who are previously infected, and those who've been vaccinated. If this assumption is violated then the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity is lower.

Back of the envelope based on the Texas data of seropositivity, that shows that this assumption is significantly violated, it reduces the requirement for herd immunity from 80% vaccination to ~50%. If the vaccines worked for delta then I assume we'll have herd immunity soon in Ireland.

TonyMaloney · 12-08-2021 10:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741631#Comment_117741631

Sorry to hear that. How is he now?

I'm aware that the immunocompromised have to be very careful tyically, but I think it's fair to say that covid has ratcheted it up a notch or two.

Your friend's boyfriend is going to have to endure an exceptionally protected and difficult time until such a time as the herd can be relied upon to protect him.

And my point is that we're nowhere near that. And nobody can say when we might get there.

I've no local data, but a quick google suggests 2.7% of Americans are compromised, so I think it's a fair to say that it's a significant problem

timmyntc · 12-08-2021 10:09AM

Herd immunity cannot happen even with 100% vaccination coverage because of the number of "breakthrough" or repeat infections. They alone will be enough to sustain the virus in a population so that we never get herd immunity.

And the fact that there are now several animal reservoirs of the virus (including deer) - covid is not going anywhere

Former Former Former · 12-08-2021 10:16AM

The problem is people thinking of herd immunity as meaning the end of Covid, like with measles or smallpox. That was never likely.

However, we can get to a point where herd immunity reduces the risk and impact of Covid to a manageable level, and we're very close to that.

timmyntc · 12-08-2021 10:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741800#Comment_117741800

That is by definition, not herd immunity.

Herd immunity is where there is enough immunity in a population to prevent circulation of a virus - so those who cant get vaccinated can still be protected. We cannot get to that level for SARS-COV-2 because its too infectious, you can still get infected and shed virus even when vaccinated, and at a (relatively) high rate compared to other viruses. So we will never get that population level protection.

Former Former Former · 12-08-2021 10:24AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741823#Comment_117741823

The definition of herd immunity is that enough people have immunity so that the risk to those without immunity is greatly reduced (NB - there is no such thing as zero risk). The problem (again) is that people are thinking about herd immunity as an all-or-nothing scenario and that is never going to be the case.

We can get enough herd immunity to resume normal life.

Flinty997 · 12-08-2021 10:28AM

The first large scale vaccinations only started in Dec. Why would anyone think this would be gone in 8 or 9 months.

Why would people be giving and throwing in the towel on vaccinations after a few months. I don't get it.

"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases"

brickster69 · 12-08-2021 10:30AM

Anyone want to tell this guy he is wrong ?

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248

12-08-2021 10:35AM

Basing strategies around herd immunity was flawed anyway. The idea that infections would stop once once we reached a certain threshold of immunity was never realistic in the long term.

The ultimate outcome of SARS-CoV-2 is heading towards endemicity where it exists in the background for the foreseeable future. Pretty much everyone can expect to be exposed eventually either through vaccination or infection. The vaccines may not always protect against infection but they are remarkably effective at reducing morbidity and mortality as well as transmission (I don't care what the CDC says. They do). Most can expect to be re-infected multiple times throughout their lives. Good news is though due to immune memory a vast majority of these infections will be mild.

As for protecting the vulnerable, booster programs will likely be a feature of life going forward. Particularly for the immunocompromised.

Former Former Former · 12-08-2021 10:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741881#Comment_117741881

He's not wrong, he just has a different take on the same set of facts.

He proposes that people in the UK will have a higher (but still very low) risk of serious illness, in order to send vaccines abroad to help vaccinate at-risk individuals in poorer countries.

I see his point, but if he was talking about Ireland, how many people would say "yes, let's continue with Covid restrictions so that we can help other people around the world".

snowcat · 12-08-2021 10:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741261#Comment_117741261

I get banned from lots of diverse threads. I post verifiable but unpopular opionions. I like to question things. I read a lot of diverse opinions. Does not make me an anti-vaxxer. I am very much pro vaccine and have been vaccinated. I question lots of chemical/drug among others claims such as pesticides biocides anti-depressants sun screen GM products. fertilizers, preservatives etc. Does not mean I doubt their effectiveness or will never use them. Seems any opinion/query/view that does not meet the mainstream opinion is best dealt with a thread ban and a label of 'anti-vaxxer'. I will probably get a forum ban now. Censorship is alive and well.

12-08-2021 10:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741881#Comment_117741881

He's not wrong. The problem is the media have cherry picked the most provocative headlines based on what he said. If you listen to the whole thing in context it's actually pretty reasonable.

celt262 · 12-08-2021 10:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741371#Comment_117741371

I don't think herd immunity via vaccination was the plan though was it?

I though the vaccine was to prevent serious illness, hospitalisations and death.

timmyntc · 12-08-2021 10:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741931#Comment_117741931

It wasnt the plan, until we started mandating vaccine passports and vaccinating u18s and u16s - they are at such minimal risk from covid, the only reason to want to vaccinate them is for herd immunity (which wont ever be achieved)

Former Former Former · 12-08-2021 11:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117742001#Comment_117742001

Are you in favour of lockdown?

Because that is the alternative.

It's that simple.

brickster69 · 12-08-2021 11:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741931#Comment_117741931

Now it is vax everyone with a pulse even those who don't die from it, but eventually we will get round to those at risk and are dying elsewhere later on.

timmyntc · 12-08-2021 11:18AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117742038#Comment_117742038

No, I'm in favour of working on actual treatments rather than burying heads in the sand and thinking vaccination will bring us all back to normal.

Pete_Cavan · 12-08-2021 11:18AM

Doesn't the fact that vaccinated people can still get and transmit the virus mean that herd immunity can still be reached, it will just take a lot longer? Everybody will likely get it at most stage and will therefore get immunity. In theory at least, herd immunity is still possible and it is transmitability after vaccination which makes that so, despite people trying to present that as a negative.

The big unknown is variants and how vaccines stands up to them but even then the vaccine is likely to mean people have a less severe illness which reduces the need for lockdowns, thereby aiding the spread and movement towards immunity to the variant.

Former Former Former · 12-08-2021 11:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117742118#Comment_117742118

Are they mutually exclusive??

Like, there are billions of euros being spent on developing treatments right now.

However, until they arrive, we need to vaccinate as many people as possible to reduce the impact of the virus.

Or, again, we go back into a winter of lockdowns.

Deeper Blue · 12-08-2021 11:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741923#Comment_117741923

My apologies 🙈 I must be mixing you up with someone else. I'll delete the comment.

astrofool · 12-08-2021 12:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117740635#Comment_117740635

As long as the average infected person infects less than one person (which the vaccines allow us to get to) then herd immunity will be reached.

Herd immunity doesn't mean elimination, it means that the virus dies out quickly because it can't jump from host to host but that pockets of infections can occur, and this puts the risk to the general population into very small figures.

It doesn't mean it can't happen, people die of diseases like measles where we have herd immunity every year, but the % dying is a tiny fraction of what it would be without herd immunity.

Also important to remember that herd immunity is a concept rather than something strictly defined and can mean different things for different diseases, what it's really about is making the risk of infection so low that it's not worth caring about, with (usually) an eventual goal of eliminating the disease entirely if the vaccination rollout continues (which is why idiot anti-vaxxers are such big idiots, they were the biggest idiots before SARS-COV2, are the biggest idiots during SARS-COV2 and will continue being the biggest idiots after SARS-COV2).

Herd immunity is not going to happen

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