Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

That was all created by Leo and his leaks.

There was nothing like that from NPHET until those backhanded tactics from Varadkar.

Come September we'll have hit our % of vaccinated whatever that is. It should be high eighties. A lot of current cases are unvaccinated and symptoms among the vaccinated are mild to non-existent so we should be fine. It is more likely to become a background issue like flu'.

That makes it even more absurd.

Not only is this data the only thing driving the decision making but they are using the worse case scenario which was completely off the wall stuff.

The projections they presented gave figures for admissions. That is, "There will 195 new ICU admissions between 1st July & 30th September", not, "There will be 195 people in ICU on 30th September."

That's 92 days, so the optimistic projection was talking about an average of 2 ICU admissions per day and 17 hospital admissions.

The models seem to have been off in terms of the conversion rate from hospital to ICU; we're well beyond the optimistic scenario for hospital admissions, but just barely beating it in terms of ICU.

However there is a considerable lag in conversion to ICU and it's only in the later stages of a surge; if cases are way out of control, that ICU numbers could get worse. We're only just past 2 weeks since indoor hospitality opened and hit 1,800 cases last week. Seem inevitable that we'll break 2k cases/day, probably this week. So in terms of cases, the central 1 scenario also seems fairly likely.

The models didn't take into account the impact of the vaccination programme though, and we should hit the magic 60% number tomorrow or Thursday, which should show some marked improvement in case numbers a week or two after that.

As a matter of interest, why is the 60% figure expected to see an improvement in numbers?

Why are we not hearing the amount of people dying anymore from this? We get the NI figures but nothing here

It's potentially just optimism on my side, but 60% was the point at which Israel saw case numbers fall off a cliff back in March/April. That was before Delta and Israel are seeing a new surge now, so the number might come and go for us without any fanfare. Nevertheless, I hold out hope :D

There have been 70 admissions between 1st July and 10th August. 40 days, so 1.75/day average. It's a bell curve though so the current 7-day average is 2.86 admissions/day and is slowly increasing day by day.

Thanks for that, wasn't aware that's when Israel saw their improvement.

We can all do with a bit of hope and optimism so keep up the good work. Wouldn't it be fantastic to see numbers plummet across the board in the next few weeks.

Haven’t commented in a while, due to the fact I’m fully vaccinated, am able to eat or drink indoors and go about daily life with some normality except obviously for mask wearing etc.

just looking at vaccine and case figures over the past few weeks, we can’t be far off the magical 90% for herd immunity at this stage. We’re vaccinating 30/40 thousand people a day on top of average case numbers of 1500 a day and that’s not withstanding people who don’t get tested or know they’re even walking around with the virus.

has anyone any opinion on when we will case loads fall off a cliff? Surely with the vaccination of our 12-15 year olds starting this weekend, come the end of September should we looking at ending all restrictions albeit with probably only mask wearing until winter is over…..

...

Climate change is the new hotness.

Covid is old news. Its been reported to death and nothing shocks us anymore. Still lots of legs in the ol climate change news

From HSE data on hospitalisations that link to ICU may well have been broken. With up to a quarter "not sick" and assuming a further proportion not at risk for ICU, it seems pretty unlikely we'll see a massive ICU surge. The numbers have been flat with a rise of about 10 in the last three weeks (23 in ICU on 17 July).

The data is very fluid on it anyway. Today for example ICU is down 1 at 33 and hospitalisations down 11 to 206.

What might mean that 11 people have died over night.