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General British politics discussion thread

14849515354311

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I was responding to a post about the tory electorate and why they keep voting tories and I simply suggested, well, weak opposition helps. IMVHO, of course. Where you got the notion i was holding the leader of the opposition personally responsible for the decisions of the government, I've no idea, quite frankly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,065 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Well I assumed that you saying the opposition was weak meant you though the opposition was weak. Sorry if I misunderstood.

    Some of the Tory electorate will vote for them no matter what but we have seen a drop off recently and we have yet to see a big vote not dominated by "get brexit done" so we can't truely judge right now how Labour are doing but the regional parties certainly have their tails up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 933 ✭✭✭jamule


    the tories have 80 seat majority and the main oppoistion are piss poor, labour have gone from a clueless clown to one that can't find any message to gain traction. The only opposition of any consequence are the snp.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Yes, me saying the opposition was weak means I think the opposition is weak. Fair assumption there anyway.

    I wouldn't say Amersham was much of a brexit vote and while labour weren't in the running, you don't expect them to lose their deposit either, for all the guff about "electoral alliances." The local elections have resoundingly carried grim tidings too. But then, we're supposedly about to see the real Keir emerge any day now. Gloves will be off and the tories will be running scared.

    Let's wait and see. These definitely are politically uncertain times, even more so than early 90s, so anything is possible. I do think the tories will lose ground but no guarantees labour will be the ones to profit most from it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,065 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    By clueless clown I assume you mean the man who had May running to the DUP of all people. Not exactly a win by Labour standards but in Brexitian it wasn't that bad and he tapped into voters better than given credit for. He is gone though so it's not him I was talking about All I said was Labour are untested in a major election currently but more importantly there is more to the opposition than them and the Tories are handing Scotland and NI to the opposition on a silver platter



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,165 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    BBC News at 10 leading with an interview with Dominic Cummings by Laura K :


    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1417227982247272452



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Amazing. How did she manage to land that interview? Are the bbc even the slightest bit embarrassed about this or do they imagine the whole nation will be agog to hear Laura chinwag with her "very special source"?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1 Cliff Edge


    You regular reminder that social media is not real life.

    In the latest opinion poll this week the Tories increased their lead over Labour to 13 points.This was the 120th opinion poll in succession that has put the Tories well ahead of Labour.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1417058300961689600

    Boris remains box office.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    He's box office for an ever decreasing circle of oul wans, oul fellas and bigots.

    The longer the Tories stay in power, the more incredible the final explosion will be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Oul wans and oul fellas who he was quite happy to see die, according to Dominic Cummings.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,489 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’

    • Lord Heseltine, 2017

    Leave vote would not win now because of demographics. Though the pensioners may not get their 8% as promised by the triple lock next year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,510 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    Many of whom he'd happily see die. It doesn't compute. Surely a stupid hairdo and a "we'll muddle on through it" attitude to governance aren't enough, right? Why has this latest reveal not destroyed him?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Johnson is a callous individual who cares about nobody only himself so nothing surprising about anything he comes out with. But the tories will always look after their own, as today's news about their plan to address social care shows.

    They are going to raise the £10-12bn needed to cover it with a 1% increase in national insurance contributions. This means it will be younger, lower paid workers who will pay most. Nobody over 66 pays NI and earnings over £50k are only levied at 2%. Nearly 70% of over 65s voted tory in 2019 and they are 20% of the population and rising.

    And they get to face the electorate bleating on about no income tax rises. As i said, the tories always look after their own.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I had a small look at the PDF of the data itself, and the generational thing is interesting: ranking only Likely Voters - and unless I'm grossly misreadhing the tables - there's quite the drop off of Conservative support with anyone under 50; a Cliff Edge, if you will 😉 Same too with Brexit, with a big disparity of support between those under and over 50. It's lopsided enough that the headline item doesn't really reflect the details here. Overall support might have increased, but it's not uniform support by any reasonable metric. The gap is lopsided; with younger demographics pushing back against Brexit & Tories, the older apparently entrenched through (maybe) Sunk Cost Bias? Now, famously, older people are more likely to vote so whether that'd manifest in something transformative at the polls is another matter - but "the UK loves the Tories, nothing to see here" doesn't quite wash either. As always, the devil is in the details.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    That's all quite true. In 2017, for example, the pollsters all pretty much failed to call it by drastically missing the significance of the youth vote. The latest more sophisticated polling models are supposedly less prone to such gaps, but it can only ever remain an inexact science.

    That said, i look at the political landscape in the uk at present and wonder what exactly is in it for younger voters, under 40ish let's say. Labour have made it patently clear it's mostly about the red wall for them, whatever it takes and everything else seems an afterthought right now. There's the greens, lib dems and various small parties and indos, but not exactly a richly gleaming choice of options, you'd have to say.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Well quite. That's the big question: the data clearly points towards a huge slice of the electorate dissatisfied with a Tory government, enough even for a different government, but in FPTP where's the alternative strong enough to sway them? So long as those harder older groups vote Tory enough, they'll act as kingmakers. All they have to keep faith in is that Everyone Else remains ideologically fragmented enough to ensure power; with Labour kinda all over the place and the rest eternally playing catch-up, it's probably how things will shake out for now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Both main parties face a similar political dilemma. In pitching for one particular bank of the electorate - even within their own target zones on right or left - they inevitably risk alienating another set, kind of a zero sum game, just the tories tend to do it better and they have a clearer run on the right than Labour have on the other side.

    So various groups such as young people, muslims and other minorities, end up feeling marginalised and taken for granted. The "they have nowhere else to go" principle. Well, they can always just decide to stay at home on polling day for a start!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭serfboard


    "So various groups such as young people, muslims and other minorities, end up feeling marginalised and taken for granted. The "they have nowhere else to go" principle. Well, they can always just decide to stay at home on polling day for a start!"

    I've posted an article here several times about the new Conservative strategy both in the US and the UK - prevent the opposition's electorate from voting (voter suppression) or convince them to stay at home. An example of the latter is spreading stories that the leader of the opposition is an anti-semite, trying to make the younger woke/culturally aware electorate disillusioned with their leader, enough to convince them not to bother voting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,067 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Or rather then staying at home they can be listened to and not feel marginalized. Just a thought. I love how people want more people to go out and vote but only if it is for there side



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Right, good thought that. The parties can actually address them, their worries and concerns and convince them they are not being taken for granted. Pretty much the point i was making, I would day!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Well yeah.

    I would prefer 100% of the electorate to vote but failing that I would prefer everyone over 65 and anyone prone to voting for Fianna Fáil to stay home.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That's extremely simplistic, not least because it ignores the realpolitik of FPTP - which negates the possibilities of single or local policy/interest parties and the demographics who might vote for them. Many constituencies effectively boil down to "well if I don't want a Tory, I HAVE to vote Labour" (and vice versa obviously); and that's going to be unpalatable for many a voter, no matter how enfranchised they may be. Plus if the alternative Hobson's Choice candidate appears functionally similar to the ruling party's own - why would you get out and cast a vote in the first place?

    If we hadn't proportional representation, it's debatable Sinn Fein, Labour, the Greens and so on would ever have any kind of numbers in the Dail (removing one's personal opinions of that party for a second). Nevermind the metric tonne of independent TDs who bulk out the seats. Now, the structure of the Dail's ruleset is such that small parties struggle to even FIND a voice in the first place, but the principle of the voting system is, to my mind, sound and much more enfranchising to the voter than FPTP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    The point i was making here was chiefly in relation to the Labour party. In prioritising the red wall seats, which they are clearly doing, they are risking alienating their young progressive, minority base and the old assumption that these voters "have nowhere else to go" is a risky hat to hang on imo.

    I don't have to imagine this because it is already happening. The party has lost in excess of 100,000 members over the past 18 months and that is going to keep increasing and put their finances in even greater peril.

    So the question is where do these disillusioned voters go? Maybe they do stay loyal with nowhere else to go, maybe they go green or lib dem or, just possibly, they stay at home. That is an option for them. Which was my point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,065 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I don't think Labour voters in London feel anyway alienated or left out due to the left wall talk. One reason for that is that local councils are so much stronger in the UK and most Labour voters know that your council becoming Tory means all your public funded facilities are about to get gutted. I don't know how it affects the swing voter as I honestly never met one in London.

    I do think though that if the Tories did lose the next election it would be purely down to a vote against them rather than for an opposition. There are already signs that the blue Home Counties could be the next solid wall to crumble.

    The 100k Labour voters lost is definitely a reaction to Corbyn stepping down and I would also imagine there are plenty of that 100k just like myself who stopped paying because I don't live there anymore (Its actually very hard to leave the Labour party as there is no simple leave option in the membership section online so the easiest way is to just cancel your DD).



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,067 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Over 65 very ageist of you. But who would you have to blame then when it does not magically get better



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,067 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    No it isnt simplistic it is very hard work. It would involve people getting involved with stuff. Listening to each other (politicians and voter). It would also involve the voter actually have to think and take stock of there votes and not just blame others. In my estimation if you do not vote you can not voice a concern



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    And again, if the demographics are against you in Constituency X, all the newly engaged voters won't matter a jot in a 50%+1 FPTP system. Going double in a gerrymandered area. This is chicken and egg stuff; can't ask - or indeed blame - people to be more active if the structure then actively works against them. For sure voter apathy is a curse, but it can't be all pinned on personal responsibility when you get a Tory government with ~40% of the national vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Yeah, but what about all the local elections this year where the party has been bleeding, hemmorhaging, votes to the greens and lib dems? That doesn't necessarily translate to GE, but it is an alarming trend for them.

    And despite Starmer pledging an end to labour "naval gazing", the latest is now a move to expel radical fringe groups who are largely made up of the types of radical young leftists Starmer once was himself in his youth. Just pointless stuff which I am certain will further alienate young voters just so as to show their preferred kind of voter how tough and serious they are.

    The 100,000 figure is one they trot out, many believe it is a lot higher. And they are now broke and laughably blaming it on corbyn even though the latter was instrumental in reshaping the party's finances in the first place. Where are all the big corporate donors who backed Starmer for the leadership? Don't seem to be so keen now for some reason.

    But who knows? These are political calculations they are making and evidently believe in them. I think it's disastrous but what do I know really?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Very ageist. Absolutely.

    I have no qualms about the most cosseted in society having less input tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I think the point is to get the 100,000 Trots out? :)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Ah, yeah. The same "trots" Starmer hoodwinked into backing him for the leadership by promising to be a unified and signing up to the 10 pledges which he has since spent the last 10 months reneging on one by one. More fool them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,549 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Cummings interview on BBC from a couple of days ago.

    Absolutely astonishing just how shambolic things are over there at the moment.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Never say never, but i suspect we may be nearing a tipping point on tory covid corruption. This guy didn't just buy a stately country estate (£1.5m worth) on the back of a £120m ppe contract that delivered 0.26% usable items, he bought a holiday home too as well as a house for his parents. Time for labour to take the gloves off, the anger over this is feral.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭serfboard


    "i suspect we may be nearing a tipping point on tory covid corruption".

    An 80 seat majority and no general election due until 2024? The tories will line the pockets of the Chumocracy until then with no-one to stop them.

    If there is excessive heat in this particular instance (which I doubt), the man who has already been thrown overboard, Matt Hancock, can take the blame for it. (AKA The Dead Man Strategy).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭serfboard


    And from a metaphorical Dead Man (Matt Hancock) to a literal one - an inquiry into the shenanigans around Greensill Capital found that the main person responsible was? A dead man, Jeremy Haywood.

    His widow went on the BBC and "accused the inquiry of 'trying to set up my husband, as far as I can see, to divert attention from things which happened much later after he died'".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Polls aren't everything but for the first time the government is actually losing ground with voters. Latest You Gov findings have them down 6 points so it's not just one single outlier. That's following on from their recent pasting in Chesham & Amersham. So tipping point or not, the tide may be turning against them finally. This is almost certainly down to their handling of covid restrictions and let's see how worse it gets. Nobody is claiming this will have any immediate implications, but it likely does cancel out any remaining notions Johnson was harbouring of calling a snap election to capitalise on the vaccine bounce. That's all clearly past now.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,940 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Harsh words from the Financial Times.


    Will it make any difference? Probably not, could well be one of those pieces they can point to in future to say they didn't shy away from such a story but truth be told, if they're not reporting on just who is involved and detailing their links to the government and their specific business interests then it is easily brushed off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,065 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    This will go over more heads.

    Far more important things going on like PM having a baby, you know the important stuff in a democracy



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    The problem is that financial Times is a specialist publication as things go, so it's never going to drive the public itself. Also if their journalists know about it, it's likely that journalists for other publications with a wider audience know about it as well and haven't reported it. I know they haven't named anyone probably because they don't know the exact make up of board(as they admit themselves). A combination of British libel laws and my perception(which could be wrong) is that the FT is less likely to speculate on named on named individuals. Finally knowing that an advisory board like this exists(given the lack of minutes of meeting its fairly secretive) and knowing its make up are two different things. However it's existence is concerning and you'd hope that more mainstream media outlets would pick up on the story and start asking questions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,065 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    All the mainstream media outlets except the ones who might be on that list of course



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    After the overruling of the peerage vetting committee to give the big red box with the seal to Peter Cruddas, this latest thing is bear-in-woods.



  • Registered Users Posts: 141 ✭✭Fly_away


    It won't make a dent in UK public opinion.


    The FT is actually quite poor on UK politics as well btw, Sebastian Payne is one of their senior journalists and he's a courtier for the Tories. George Parker is the political editor I think and he's bang average.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I forget who but one commentator made an interesting point about this story over the weekend. Regardless of how the public react or don't, it exposes a potential rift at the heart of the tory project. Basically, a lot of the supporters and big donor money comes from the property or developer sector and what they want is lax regulation and planning laws. But this is anathema to the wealthy and middle class white collar tory voters in the shires for whom nimbyism is a core value. Some of this may have factored into the recent tory collapse in Chesham and Amersham.

    Who knows but thought it was an interesting take anyway.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    So. Genuine idiotic goof, or more calculated Johnson fakery? It can be so hard to tell sometimes.

    This latest came while touring Scotland, Johnson tried to claim Thatcher's closing of the coal mines in the 80s was ultimately a headstart in environmentalism... needless to say the reaction hasn't been kind from some quarters.

    I suppose to a degree of pedantry he could be correct, if coal usage during that era wasn't still strong, the mines genuinely closed to save the planet.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Dave0301


    Given that he is reported to have laughed after the statement and said to reporters "I thought that would get you going" he knows exactly what he is at.

    The Tories used Brexit to help secure votes they normally would not have won in the last election, but they have no interest in "levelling up" Britain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,065 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It just trolling and in fairness to him it's a good one. He annoying Sturgeon, Starmer and probably the Greens in one go



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    I thought it was an excellent wind up by Johnson.



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Yes just one problem though - You know all those northern red wall seats he so interested in keeping. You know in the ex mining areas of Durham, Yorkshire, Notts, etc, apparently the Tory MP's there are not best pleased with his joke.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp



    Well exactly. All well and good him chortling at another headline grabbing wheeze, but surely there's a legitimate risk at angering the very constituencies still living with Thatcher's decisions. Local MPs would be rightly fuming at a very London centric sneer. Not without reason there was wild outpouring of joy at her death, vulturous as it might have been.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob




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