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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    5 hospital outbreaks would explain it, sounds like more people who were hospitalised caught covid there than were hospitalised with covid.



  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Ok, there is obviously going to be differing opinions on some of this subject. Some of the people that disagree with me on this particular subject have regularly agreed with me on other aspects. The way it goes. And should go. It's not black and white. We all have varying opinions on the various aspects. I'm pretty confident that I had a reasonable and indeed not too cautious reaction to Covid, drinking and eating indoors when it was allowed - any time over the last 1.5 years that the pubs and restaurants opened, I was there and not worrying about this virus. Many others stayed at home and didn't risk it, which is their choice. I was first in the pub this week when indoor drinking was allowed. So please, don't féckin bullshít me and try to imply that I'm some sort of curtain twitcher. For my age group (50's plus) I'm pretty realistic in living my life and not allowing this shíte to dictate my life.

    So forgive me for saying féck you to people that try to suggest "imagine being him". And I'd ask some of the people that 'thanked' that post, some of whom have had very similar opinions to myself over the last 18 months, to reconsider how quickly they are happy to thank a bullshít post that depends on emotion rather than fact.

    WHEN I went out, and I tell you I am in the UPPER echelon in terms of people going out in this pandemic, I respected the rules. I didn't like most of them, but I followed them. When I was first in the pub indoors this week, I didn't like this mask bollóx on arrival etc., but I did it - if only to not make it unnecessarily difficult for staff who have to follow the rules too. So excuse me for saying don't suggest I am some sort of paranoid individual when it comes to this.

    So, excuse me floppybits and b0nk1e for trying to dismantle my opinion, but I am confident that I played a part in repressing the spread of the virus, while dubious about many of the measures. It is not up to you, or me, to decide that there is "no need to wear a mask for 5 minutes or less" - I might not disagree with you, but if everyone decides for themselves what is correct, well then the rules become irrelevant.

    It is pretty disappointing that you get dissed on here simply because you have the termerity to suggest that it's ok to call people out for blatently disregarding the rules. They might be flawed, and questionable in many cases, but we don't, or should't, get to decide. So Féck you.

    (removed ú and replaced with é!as not meant as angrily as sounded!)

    Post edited by podgeandrodge on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Always a lag between hospital numbers and ICU cases as I think you know .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    14 patients involved in those hospital outbreaks .

    Majority of patients are hospitalised for Covid with a few testing positive on admission for something else , according to Paul Reid , at HSE briefing today.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    No there isn’t. The only time icu lagged hospitalised was October last. The other peaks occurred at the same time



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,307 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    There is a simple reason for that and I wold have thought that while some may not agree with the distinction the thought process behind is easily understood.

    Infection numbers, hospitalisations and deaths from/with covid have been used throughout to drive home the severeness of this virus and this pandemic. Especially the latter two since nobody would care about infection numbers if the hospitalisations and deaths were obviously in the non-dramatic range. These latter two numbers have been used as a direct instrument to convince the population of the necessity of unprecedented restrictions on civil liberties and commercial and social life in general.

    It has been formally (and somewhat grudgingly) confirmed that not every covid death is someone who actually died from covid or where covid has even been a contributing factor. So we call it died 'with' covid but in the news articles this distinction often gets forgotten about and anyone who 'pedantically' insists on this distinction gets dismissed to the 'grifter' corner.

    Officially the reason for the 'with covid' definition is that it is not a black & white scenario and that we cant carry out autopsies on everyone and even that would often not give a definite answer. Even as a covid response critic I find it hard to argue with that, but I must also assume that if the vast majority of the covid deaths could relatively easily and convincingly be attributed to 'from covid' then we certainly would have done so. In fact it seems no attempt at a more granular definition has been made even. Conclusively the cynic (and lets be honest, realist) in me assumes most likely the opposite is the case and 'with covid' is a rather 'generous' definition.

    Therefore critics have always suspected that the hospitalisation numbers show a similar pattern and in fact this has since also been confirmed. We also have found out that quite a large portion of covid 'hospitalisations' actually acquired the virus in hospital.

    So in terms of legitimation of measures with hospitalisations as a yardstick it absolutely is relevant whether someone is in hospital with an appendicitis and happened to test positive upon admission or whether someone is in hospital because of and treated for covid.

    It is also very important for medical reasons, especially with the narrative on the so-called 'variants'. It is vital to know whether a certain variant causes higher hospitalisations or whether hospitalisations are merely up because the incidence rate in the general populace is up and hospitalisation numbers simply reflect that. Whether some or many of those hospitalisations are merely normal hospital traffic that happens to test positive. Obviously a young person in hospital with appendicitis who happens to test positive is a lot less likely to be transferred to ICU than an actual covid case.

    Muddying those waters does not help anyone it only makes people suspicious.

    Post edited by CalamariFritti on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ICU numbers still have not taken off, which I view as a very good thing. The age profile of those testing positive is also against too many ending up in ICU anyway. Our vaccination rates being so high is a further positive and we are not far off completing this programme.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,622 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Once we're finished the first course, do we just start on boosters i wonder?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,433 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Looks like phenomenal take up and use of the walk in vaccination centres!!! Great to see





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    Majority could be 60%. We should be given total hospital covid patients and then an of which hospitalised because of covid figure. I don't think that should be too hard and I hope it happens as the government are looking for this distinction. It'll give us a better idea of infections to serious disease and then the same in vaccinated and unvaccinated, age of patient etc. If people who have covid but are in hospital for other reasons are included it'll skew all these figures and ratios



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    For certain at risk groups very probably but not until October I'd say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Data released yesterday from CDC re: Delta is concerning. Not possible to infer vaccine efficacy based on the data but it's potentially zero, and best case it's in-line with the findings from Israel. In contrast also to previous findings, viral load is unchanged between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people (based on CT value, Figure 2).

    Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)

    If we have a situation wherein vaccinated people have the same viral load and rate of transmission, efficacy is low for the dominant strain, people's distancing/masking/hygiene behaviours change based on their vaccination status and due to being asymptomatic, then I think we can expect full lockdowns again this winter regardless of how many are vaccinated, if NPHET remain at the wheel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,497 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Do we need any more proof that herd immunity via vaccination is unattainable?

    The big issue for Ireland moving forward is what exactly do NPHET consider to be acceptable risk?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah



    why the fcuk is the mainstream media printing such nonsense like this? It’s scare mongering of the highest level.

    The vast majority of human beings do not think logically - instead, they allow their emotions and mental heuristics to cloud their judgment and arrive at fallacious conclusions. 

    It is 100% clear that COVID will be endemic, but the normal human mind can not fathom this and needs closure or some kind of "action" (even if said action is pointless in the long run).

    I would just make peace with yourself and the fact that most people in charge of government are not making logical decisions.....with this in mind, look for opportunities to boost your living standards/net worth and take advantage of human irrationality...there's plenty of that in the market. 

    If you fight the tide of human stupidity, it will drag you in and drive you insane...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I'm wondering what this will mean for FDA approval. As far as I know, case studies such as this are factored into the process. Will they approve a vaccine that isn't efficacious for a dominant strain and perhaps reduces safety at a macro level, even if it's safe per se? What the heck will happen if it's not approved :S



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    At least one good thing about that report is saying top scientists are sceptical of the CDC’s latest report. Also disputing their claims that Delta isn’t spreading like chicken pox.


    “”Top scientists today claimed the Indian 'Delta' variant is not spreading as quickly as chickenpox, despite US health officials saying it is just as contagious.

    Data circulating within America's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) claimed people infected with the mutant strain can go on to infect eight others.

    The same internal document  also alleged that fully-vaccinated people can spread the Indian variant just as easily as unvaccinated people because they carry a similar amount of the virus in their nose and mouth. 

    Dr Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, insisted the agency was 'not crying wolf', saying the situation was 'serious' and that the measures needed to tackle the spread of Delta were 'extreme'.

    But British scientists have questioned some of the claims made by the department, which has urged Americans to keep their coverings on indoors regardless of whether they've been vaccinated or not. 

    Professor David Livermore, an infectious diseases expert from the University of East Anglia, said vaccine-triggered immunity and the endless waves of Covid which nations have endured meant there were fewer susceptible people around for people to infect.

    'The US, like the UK, has substantial immunity from prior infection and from vaccination,' he told MailOnline. 'This will surely be a major drag on Delta's spread, precluding (viral spread) numbers of that magnitude.' 

    And Professor Julian Tang, a virologist at Leicester University, said the theory was likely just 'speculation' because it was very difficult to track down the number of cases sparked by a single infection. “”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    My cousin is out in greystones now at the open vaccine centre. Said there are Anti vaxxers outside stopping cars going in, in an attempt to change there mind on getting the jab

    why are these people allowed do this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,589 ✭✭✭Azatadine




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Moron’s with nothing between their ears will always be Moron’s.

    it wouldn’t bother me, i’d just be more determined to go in and get jabbed and flash the vaccine card to them as i walk out.

    The aggression and desperation is increasing with them because they know they’re in a losing battle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Daily mail forgot to put the part in were the also said the percentage that it will evolve into a regular cold is even higher.

    Same scientific paper Same group of scientists.

    The rag just runs with the worse case scenario.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,014 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    They will go with what sells papers simple as that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Absolutely mate. It’s mind boggling, apparently it’s happening across the country all week. I’ve gotten into spats with these people as I struggle to bite my tongue when it comes to this.

    Literally nothing between the ears, there sources of information aren’t real and they can’t see it. There aggression is getting worse for sure



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    I see Ryan from the WHO is also giving his best shot of doom too.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Important part:

    "The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak. As population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of COVID-19 cases. Second, asymptomatic breakthrough infections might be underrepresented because of detection bias. Third, demographics of cases likely reflect those of attendees at the public gatherings, as events were marketed to adult male participants; further study is underway to identify other population characteristics among cases, such as additional demographic characteristics and underlying health conditions including immunocompromising conditions."

    The bit about viral loads is interesting but it is not powered to assess efficacy and shouldn't be used as such.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,209 ✭✭✭amandstu


    No ,they are in a winning battle but it is others who are doing the fighting on their behalf.

    They will reap the rewards of our victory despite not having earned it themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,753 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Do you see yourself as a soldier or something?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,948 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Its worth pointing out that anti-vaxxers may be idiots, but things certainly aren't helped by a government and its advisory groups spinning narratives and manipulating figures for 18 months. These people don't trust what they are being told and unfortunately we gave them reason to feel that way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I acknowledged that in the second line of my post. "Not possible to infer vaccine efficacy based on the data but it's potentially zero, and best case it's in-line with the findings from Israel."

    The study of course wasn't powered, it's a case study, but it does indicate things that weren't shown/expected before, specifically high viral load in fully vaccinated people, high transmissibility amongst fully vaccinated, and very high rates of symptoms amongst vaccinated who are infected.

    "Approximately three quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons" - this is fine and makes sense

    "Overall, 274 (79%) vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic." - this isn't expected



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,209 ✭✭✭amandstu




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    At what point do you count them as a covid patient though?

    At the very least they require isolation, they still require staff to wear extra PPE. They have covid and in hospital, you can't say they don't have covid.



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