It all seems nonsense to me. Where are they getting the stats. Are they really saying that between 80 & 90% of population regard themselves as either unionist or nationalist?
So much for the fantasy of a Unionist 'homeland' in Ireland when we vote to reunite our country. Ain't happening.
I'd say that's still an "if" rather than a "when".
I think the analysis by county is interesting. I could easily see a scenario where a narrow border poll victory by nationalists sets off a wave of loyalist violence and then a Tory government draws another line on the map. There wouldn't be much nationalists or the Irish government could do to stop that I'd imagine.
I don't think the Empire would have the muscle (not to mention the appetite or care) to ignore another democratic decision.
Those days are long gone.
That's all you need to know about NI's place in the Union as far as the mainland is concerned. Seriously they are still running with this across all the media no one is batting an eyelid, not the Guardian, not the BBC , no one.
Boris is still ploughing ahead with HS2. Ten years of NI subventions for a railway line that even won't even go to the north of England.
Draw a line where?
Wherever pleases the Daily Mail most. I'm not saying the Tories care about Northern Ireland but I do think that "keeping Britain great" would be very tempting for a Boris style PM.
That's hardly surprising though because a lot of people (I suspect anyway) don't understand that England, GB and the UK are not identical.
Clearly whoever came up with the name is of that 'lot'.
No majority in Derry, Belfast, or any of the six counties. There is literally nowhere to draw a line. There is no re-partition to fantasise about.
I don't think it necessarily follows that those same people would be fine with giving up territory though.
They don't have a choice if there is a successful border poll, whether they are fine with it or not.
My own opinion is that I wouldn't mind seeing a united Ireland but I would like it to happen in a way that wouldn't lead to an outbreak of massive violence or completely tank the economy.
I don't really see it as plausible that a border poll will pass in NI in the immediate future because the nationalist share of the vote is stuck at 40%. Demographics may improve that percentage over time but that's a substantial gap to close.
IIRC changing the wording of the Brexit referendum from Yes/No to Leave/Remain is estimated to have swung the vote by about 4%
Legally Parliament could ditch NI overnight. Because sovereign innit?
That's quite a naive view. After five year of brexit I think you should view anything as possible.
Brexit re-enforces my view. They could have thrown out the GFA and gotten their version of Brexit, but they didn't because they would be shunned internationally.
Not a chance the various fantasies offered here...an independent NI or a re-partitioning are going to happen.
I never suggested an independent NI.
Never said you did.
I don't rate a repartition as likely either really. If it was going to happen it would have happened in 1970.
My genuine opinion is that we are years and years away from a nationalist majority in stormont and I can't see a border poll happening until that point is reached. How do you see nationalists achieving a majority?
I assumed your previous comment was aimed entirely at me. Sorry.
I don't see it as 'nationalists' doing it. I see a proposal from the Irish government being put to 'people' and they will choose their futures.
The proposal will not be a 'nationalist' one. I will be one with a vison for everyone's future.
That doesn't address my question though. In order for a border poll to be held my understanding is that the NI Secretary has to decide on it and the most likely criteria is a nationalist majority at Stormont since that would suggest the possibility of a successful border poll.
Discussed earlier today. The SoS can use any criteria he/she wishes, There are no restraints on him/her and no onus to evidence why they decided to hold one. It can be a political decision.
I didn't read all the posts today, sorry
So you expect/hope the NI secretary will call a border poll before there is a nationalist majority in Stormont?
I think the British are pushing Unionists away and have a 'point' of their own to call a poll. So it could literally come at any time.
11% of British voters oppose a UI.
Is this the same poll?
Markie on Twitter: "Almost three times more Brits support Irish reunification compared to those who want the North to remain part of the so-called UK. Unionism's weird Stockholm Syndrome and allegiance to a version of Britain that hasn't existed for well over a century continues though https://t.co/kXgeY5YAEj" / Twitter
A United Ireland is a long way away.
When sensible people see the antics of some of those living there they baulk at importing that lot.
80 foot high ‘bonfires’….. c’mon it’s 2021 folk.
Time to grow up.
The narrative is changing. I agree with this, Unionists and partitionists make a virtue out of 'not being ready'. They should not and will not be allowed to hold up progress.
Debate on united Ireland can’t wait until unionists are ready (irishtimes.com)