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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,011 mod Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Summer 2021.

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks



    We are currently in a warm airmass after a generally very cold Spring. The final days of Spring brought a big lift up in temperatures. Today will be warm hazy sunny weather over the eastern half of the country today with cooler air approaching from the west. Cooler air is slowly moving in from the west with the Atlantic trying to break through.

    Tomorrow will be fairly mild across most of the country but temperatures down a few degrees on recent days particularly across the southern half of the country with showers beginning to move up from the south and south-west. These may turn thundery in places. Remaining dryer and warmer further north.

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    The low pressure just out to our west does not look like it will make any real inroads across the country over the next few days with mostly dry conditions to end the week and into the weekend. There may be a few light showers around in places and temperatures will lower further to more average values of 16 to 20C.

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    Bank Holiday Monday will remain mostly dry but this low pressure just off our west coast may try to make inroads again across western and north-western areas. Temperatures will remain around average 15 to 20C, warmest across the east where sunny spells are more likely.

    Rainfall totals over the next week look light away from the far south-west and perhaps western coastal fringes with 10 to 15mm generally depending on shower distribution, some areas could see very little if any rain over the next week or so.

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Comments



  • We are currently in a relatively mild to warm pattern of weather although it has cooled down since the warm conditions of the past week. Temperatures look like rising again over the next 5 to 6 days but how long will it last is the question.

    There has been uncertainty to how sunny or how warm it will get over the course of the coming week. Over the past few days the models have backed away from a classic 2013/2018 style high pressure fest with very warm to hot conditions. Instead we look on course for a fairly dry and relatively warm week. The warmest conditions look reserved for next weekend, particularly on Saturday before a breakdown may begin as early as Sunday.

    Many eastern, central and southern areas may stay dry throughout the coming week with light rain or showers in western and north-western coastal areas at times, but even there, there could be some nice spells of warm sunshine at times too. Not a classic by any means but a nice spell of summery conditions.

    Tomorrow will be mostly dry with fairly average temperatures, it may get close to 20C in some eastern areas in spells of sunshine during the afternoon.

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    Most areas will stay dry but a few light showers may brush up against western coasts at times.

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    A fairly mild to warm day on Tuesday with spells of sunshine and temperatures reaching 20 or 21C in most places away from western and north-western coastal areas.

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    Once again light showers may move across western and north-western areas, but many areas will escape these showers.

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    Wednesday will see the ridge of high pressure become more dominant over Ireland. Temperatures getting into the low 20s in many places, warmest in the east with temperatures of 22 or 23C possible.

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    Becoming warmer from Thursday with the ridge brushing up against the country with temperatures in the low 20's across the country with temperatures up to 24 or 25C possible in a few areas well inland.

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    Friday remains fairly warm with low 20s in most places, however cloud or showers may keep western coastal areas cooler.

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    Next Saturday may see the peak of the warmth with temperatures reaching 22 to 24C widely. By this stage high pressure still in control but low pressure to our west looks poised to make a move soon afterwards.

    GFSOPEU06_156_1.png

    Trace amounts of rainfall expected for the majority of the country over the coming week, many areas seeing nothing at all, however the far western coastal areas may see 10 to 20mm of rainfall with showers or bands of light rain brushing up along coastal parts from time to time.

    156-777UK.GIF?06-6




  • The past day or so has seen much cooler conditions spread across the country from the Atlantic. This colder airflow is also right across the UK and delivering some awful conditions particularly for central and south-eastern England today.

    The dry spell is still ongoing for most of Ireland despite the cooler conditions. This dry spell will come to a possibly temporary end this weekend with some rain or showers.

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    The models appear to be backing off rather quickly from an unsettled outlook to a mostly dry scene this coming week and temperatures gradually making a recovery as heights rise.

    From Monday today's ECM is showing Ireland largely dry for much of next week with high pressure establishing an influence and keeping us mostly dry with a chance of showers or possibly thunderstorms next weekend.

    High pressure moving in from the south-west by Wednesday should deliver a relatively dry week for many.

    ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

    The UKMO is also on board for some high pressure this week with Thursday also looking rather nice.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    We finish the ECM with the possibility of a plume of heat edging over Leinster and low pressure just to our south which may turn things volatile.

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    As for the GFS it's also rather similar to the ECM and UKMO, we build higher pressure through this week and we get a recovery in the temperatures.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    It is also playing around with warmth for next weekend with temperatures into the low to mid 20s.

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    So it seems the models are backing away very quickly from the cooler unsettled outlook to an improving scene once we get Sunday out of the way. If today's charts verify we could well be on our way for a very, very dry June. The warmth next weekend may not last long as that low pressure to our south could cause us problems with showers or thunderstorms. Interesting model watching over the next few days.




  • Yeah big change in the rainfall amounts with the Lp staying much further South than earlier runs . Saturday mostly dry and on Sunday some light rain and damp conditions but amounts small so at least not a wash out.

    Some bright spells in the Eastern half of the country on Saturday . Later Sunday brighter weather spreading from the East.


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  • Not bad temps for Thursday in the midlands and especially the E ahead of the expected rainfall as fronts move down and across the country, could be quite clammy later that evening in the Eastern half of the country.

    Friday coolish and damp , Sat into Sunday drier with improving temperatures.

    A bit fresher along the NW and W coasts on Fri and a bit breezier overland . N to NW along NW and W coasts, variable overland.

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  • Hasn't the NW suffered enough.


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  • After a relatively cool and damp few days, the weather will improve from tomorrow with more in the way of spells of sunshine and temperatures back to average or slightly above.

    GFSOPEU12_72_1.png

    arpegeuk-41-77-0.png?26-18

    The tough of low pressure that brought the cool and damp conditions will affect much of southern England and Wales over the coming week which will keep temperatures and sunshine much reduced in those areas in a rather unusual setup. Ireland should escape the affect of this low pressure but there is a chance that some eastern and south-eastern areas may get more variable cloud and a slight risk of coastal showers but overall Ireland will stay dry between now and Thursday. There may also be some showery light drizzle at times along north-western and northern coasts during next week but rainfall amounts likely to be very low untill Friday/Saturday.

    GFSOPEU12_126_1.png

    arpegeuk-41-102-0.png?26-18

    Temperatures this week generally average to slightly above in places in the 18 to 22C range, possibly higher in a few places on Thursday if sunshine levels remain good.

    From Friday the forecast is looking more uncertain. At the moment it appears we will turn more unsettled from Friday into next weekend with low pressure moving in from the south-west with showers or some longer spells of rain over next weekend, however it remains to be seen if this breakdown to more unsettled conditions will verify as this is outside of the reliable timeframe.

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

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  • The breakdown will happen next Thursday. Lovely week when we're at work, crap weekend when we're at home. Guaranteed!




  • The breakdown will happen next Thursday. Lovely week when we're at work, crap weekend when we're at home. Guaranteed!

    Always the way ! Good weather never seems to last long on this island - 3 to 4 days max then the Atlantic gets its revenge and takes over for 50 days:D




  • Pesky N'ly / NW'ly breeze keeping the temperatures lower along Atlantic coasts tomorrow, should be a grand day though, decent temperatures inland .

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  • This evenings ECM does turn briefly more unsettled for the weekend but builds up a warm to hot plume right at the very end for the early days of next week.


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  • ECM keeping the Lp much further S for Mon into Tues and keeping the heaviest rain off the coasts. GFS similar track , maybe showing a bit more rain along coastal areas, will see how it pans out over the coming days. No winds to speak of, they are being reserved for France and up along S / SE UK.

    The West might see some moderate rainfall from a second area of LP out to the W

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  • Tomorrow the new hottest day of the year by the looks of it. Fairly widespread 26 -27C inland away from the coasts and getting up to 28C in places, will we see more higher ??









  • Will there be an asterisk beside Shannon if it gets the record ?





  • It will cause a lot of debate on here that's for sure. It would be preferable if another station matches or exceeds Shannons to avoid reading what has been discussed here umpteen times



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  • Well it's almost right beside a tarmac carpark so would appear to be unsuitable for an official weather station - at least from a temperature point of view.

    Didn't Kilkenny get closed for less as the station surrounds were deemed as being too built up even though it was in a field?





  • Well one thing from watching the models over the last week is that in general they keep trending upwards, 31C possible I reckon, 32C hmmm... maybe.





  • The warm weather is still here and hanging on by it's finger tips. Today is the last day of real warmth from this current spell. Up to now we've had a very warm July, even before the heatwave got going it was relatively warm since June with only the odd cooler than average day. A significant change is on the way starting from tomorrow and by Tuesday we will all be under the influence of much cooler Atlantic maritime airmass.

    Low pressure will take control of our weather from Tuesday and by Wednesday low pressure will really dominate the scene over Ireland and much of northern and western Europe over the coming week.

    From Wednesday longer outbreaks of rain and bands of heavy showers will dominate our weather day by day with temperatures going between 1 and 4C below average through the coming week. Temperatures in the 11 to 18C range generally from Wednesday. Temperatures no better than 11 or 12C during periods of heavy rain but if we manage to get some sunshine temperatures could reach 16 to 18C particularly in the south.

    By the weekend it will still be unsettled with winds coming in from the north and with a big area of low pressure to our east and north and northern blocking getting going. Temperatures may begin to recover slightly by next weekend before more unsettled, wet and windy weather takes over into the following week.

    Many areas will see 20 to 50mm of rain over the coming week but some western and north-western areas could see as much as 60 to 75mm of rainfall.

    Eastern and southern areas will be a bit dryer but generally unsettled and rather cool everywhere and not much in the way of sunshine in the coming week. Typical August Atlantic driven weather pattern.





  • What's Fridays weather looking like right now? Don't mind showers but need a dryish few hours in the afternoon!!!





  • Friday is looking showery, particularly across the west and north and maybe dryer across the east and south. Best chance of dryness appears to be next weekend with a brief respite from the unsettled conditions.






  • Thanks for that! I'll be happy with that. Live in the east/southeast so hopefully all will be okay! Temp I'm not fussed on. But does look cool.





  • Tomorrow looks like a mostly dry day but mainly cloudy and now Monday looks fairly wet in the W, SW, S . Today's mist, drizzle and light rain shown on the charts came to be, 16.6C currently here in Kerry, looks to get up around 20c in the SE.









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  • Some very heavy rain coming up over the coming days, Kerry / W Limerick amongst other areas set to get a right drenching, not far off getting into Orange level rainfall warning territory on that 24 hr chart from the ECM.

    Getting quite breezy now for the next few days just to add to it






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