Chris_5339762 wrote: »
The breakdown will happen next Thursday. Lovely week when we're at work, crap weekend when we're at home. Guaranteed!
After a bit of a dissapointing first half of July it should turn more sunny and notably warmer over the weekend. There is alot of uncertainty in the models with how long we stay under the influence of high pressure. The GFS brings cooler air from the north and east from Monday while the GEM and ECM keep the very warm weather going possibly as far as next Thursday.
Currently Saturday/Sunday looks like the peak of the warmth with temperatures reaching 25C in many places and possibly a few degrees higher than this in some favoured spots.
Most models keep the high pressure and warm weather going as far as Thursday with temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s for much of next week.
A breakdown may begin from Thursday into Friday with an area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic. As this is a week away there is uncertainty about the tracking of this low. Temperatures will lower from Friday and into next weekend as the weather may turn more unsettled and possibly volatile.
Over the next 7 days many areas will escape mostly dry or completely dry.
In summary, the following week will be warm to very warm at times, however there is a bit of uncertainty about how long the warm weather will last. Most models have it good up to next Thursday, while at GFS starts to cool things down from the north and east from Monday. This is potentially the warmest spell since June/July 2018 so make the most of it as things do look like they will become more unsettled and Atlantic driven for August.
Tomorrow the new hottest day of the year by the looks of it. Fairly widespread 26 -27C inland away from the coasts and getting up to 28C in places, will we see more higher ??
Just been looking at the latest model runs and I think we could see 27 or 28C again during midweek. Could we be seeing the start of a wobble on the breakdown from Thursday. GEM keeps it very warm now right through into next weekend. GFS only briefly turns more unsettled and the azores has another go. ECM also looking fairly warm right into next weekend. Could be some time before we see temperatures back in the teens again.
If the above verifies then I would consider this heatwave territory. Even after Friday the models are still showing low to mid twenties.
Looking very warm again on this mornings runs before the change the coming weekend but at least that might bring a bit of thunderstorm interest.
Some of this evenings model runs have decided to dial the heat up another notch for mid week this week. I'm unsure if these temperatures will verify but mid to high twenties are definitely achievable untill Thursday.
Tomorrow Sunday will be cooler than today across the north and east with the warmest temperatures over the mid west and south-west. Temperatures 23 to 27C widely tomorrow. The onshore sea breezes will make northern and eastern areas more comfortable tomorrow.
Monday will be another very warm day, perhaps a touch warmer than Sunday in the south-west where 28C is possible.
Tuesday will turn warmer with the onshore breezes dying away again and temperatures generally 25 to 28C across the country with 29 or 30C possible in somewhere like Shannon.
Wedesday has the potential to be warmer than today and temperatures could exceed 30C in a few spots with 31C possible around Meath/Cavan/Monaghan. I have a feeling this model is overcooking the temperature potential but would love to see this verify. These sort of temperatures would completely depend on unbroken sunshine across the country and sea breezes being offshore as much as possible.
We still look onboard for potentially the hottest day of 2021 on Wednesday. Yesterday the Arpege was showing temperatures of 30 and 31C over leinster on Wednesday. Now a few more models have come onboard and suggesting 31C for Wednesday.
GEM has a swathe of 30C stretching from Kerry to Kildare on Wednesday afternoon with places like Oak Park or Kilkenny getting to 31C.
the UKV model is also going for 30C on Wednesday stretching from midland areas into Kildare and Meath with a chance of 31C there too.
The Arpege continues to look very hot for Wednesday with 30 to 31C between Galway and Meath, if you look closely it actually has a 32C over Galway on Wednesday.
One of the UK weather youtube channels has mentioned heat records might get broken in Ireland on Wednesday. I doubt we will get 33.0 but a 32C just might happen. No doubt several places will break their temperature records on Wednesday as temperatures above 29C are rare as hens teeth for the majority of Ireland. We usually have to rely on Shannon, Oak Park or Mt Dillion to see these sort of temperatures while everywhere else is a few degrees cooler. Never have I seen 29 to 30C as widespread as this.
Just for fun I thought I'd post up this evenings Arpege run for Wednesday and Thursday. Of all the models this one is the hottest, this model can sometimes overcook the temperatures during hot spells. On the other hand the GFS often undercooks temperatures by 2 or 3C during hot summer spells.
As a reference the Arpege has got today's temperatures fairly accurately, they may be overcooked in a few places but generally show 25 to 28C for today which is what we've had.
The charts for Wednesday and Thursday are quite exciting or perhaps worrying depending on who looks at these.
Wednesday will see the heat really build across all of Ireland but midland and mid western areas look to be in for a very hot time with temperatures getting to 30 or 31C in many of parts of Clare, Limerick, southern Galway and perhaps parts of the midlands. Look closely and you can see a 32C for Shannon...
Wednesday night is going to be uncomfortably warm for many. Temperatures on Wednesday night generally in the 16 to 19C range but across the mid west temperatures may struggle to fall much below 20C with a few spots staying getting down to 22C by sunrise before temperatures shoot up again on Thursday.
Thursday will be another blistering day with temperatures again reaching 30C or higher in the mid-west. Just for fun i've posted this chart because I don't think these values will be reached but it's great to look at anyway. The Arpege has 32C in many mid western areas and if you look very closely you can see a 33C for Shannon Airport....
The Arpege does appear to be overcooking the temperature here but they got today's temperatures spot on. Even if we don't get these values this has been an incredible spell of hot weather, the hottest in County Meath since 1983 up to this point.
Will there be an asterisk beside Shannon if it gets the record ?
It will cause a lot of debate on here that's for sure. It would be preferable if another station matches or exceeds Shannons to avoid reading what has been discussed here umpteen times
Well it's almost right beside a tarmac carpark so would appear to be unsuitable for an official weather station - at least from a temperature point of view.
Didn't Kilkenny get closed for less as the station surrounds were deemed as being too built up even though it was in a field?
Well one thing from watching the models over the last week is that in general they keep trending upwards, 31C possible I reckon, 32C hmmm... maybe.
The warm weather is still here and hanging on by it's finger tips. Today is the last day of real warmth from this current spell. Up to now we've had a very warm July, even before the heatwave got going it was relatively warm since June with only the odd cooler than average day. A significant change is on the way starting from tomorrow and by Tuesday we will all be under the influence of much cooler Atlantic maritime airmass.
Low pressure will take control of our weather from Tuesday and by Wednesday low pressure will really dominate the scene over Ireland and much of northern and western Europe over the coming week.
From Wednesday longer outbreaks of rain and bands of heavy showers will dominate our weather day by day with temperatures going between 1 and 4C below average through the coming week. Temperatures in the 11 to 18C range generally from Wednesday. Temperatures no better than 11 or 12C during periods of heavy rain but if we manage to get some sunshine temperatures could reach 16 to 18C particularly in the south.
By the weekend it will still be unsettled with winds coming in from the north and with a big area of low pressure to our east and north and northern blocking getting going. Temperatures may begin to recover slightly by next weekend before more unsettled, wet and windy weather takes over into the following week.
Many areas will see 20 to 50mm of rain over the coming week but some western and north-western areas could see as much as 60 to 75mm of rainfall.
Eastern and southern areas will be a bit dryer but generally unsettled and rather cool everywhere and not much in the way of sunshine in the coming week. Typical August Atlantic driven weather pattern.
What's Fridays weather looking like right now? Don't mind showers but need a dryish few hours in the afternoon!!!
Friday is looking showery, particularly across the west and north and maybe dryer across the east and south. Best chance of dryness appears to be next weekend with a brief respite from the unsettled conditions.
Thanks for that! I'll be happy with that. Live in the east/southeast so hopefully all will be okay! Temp I'm not fussed on. But does look cool.
I think you're thinking of Birr station.
Birr Weather Station
Tomorrow looks like a mostly dry day but mainly cloudy and now Monday looks fairly wet in the W, SW, S . Today's mist, drizzle and light rain shown on the charts came to be, 16.6C currently here in Kerry, looks to get up around 20c in the SE.
Stuck under the influence of Lp over the next few days giving some high rainfall predictions.
Some very heavy rain coming up over the coming days, Kerry / W Limerick amongst other areas set to get a right drenching, not far off getting into Orange level rainfall warning territory on that 24 hr chart from the ECM.
Getting quite breezy now for the next few days just to add to it