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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #8402
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 14,242 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    All well and good but what about people who simply are unable to access a vaccine or only have 1 dose ?

    Vaccine passes will be available for the partially-vaccinated, as far as I am aware.


  • #8403
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,366 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    All well and good but what about people who simply are unable to access a vaccine or only have 1 dose ?

    So stay closed until everyone is vaccinated?


  • #8404
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,356 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    hynesie08 wrote: »
    So stay closed until everyone is vaccinated?

    He didn't say that and you know that,he was asking a genuine question but here you are again obsessing with said poster,its really sad at this stage. You were fairly quite when he was first to call it that indoor hospitality would not open today


  • #8405
    hynesie08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,366 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08


    giveitholly wrote: »
    He didn't say that and you know that,he was asking a genuine question but here you are again obsessing with said poster,its really sad at this stage. You were fairly quite when he was first to call it that indoor hospitality would not open today

    You really have an issue with people having opposing viewpoints don't you?


  • #8406
    lucernarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    When this is said and done Covid will have done more damage to people's mental health than anyone could imagine. People are still walking around others on footpaths ffs like it's Ebola on steroids.

    Make no mistake Covid was a windfall for doom mongers and the media and they are finding it almost impossible to let go. It's beyond sad really.
    Is that the level of begrudgery you have to get to, that you mock even someone taking minimal precautions for their own reasons and business? Are you equating social distancing with mental illness?


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  • #8407
    Hyperbollix
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭Hyperbollix


    anyone know when the 35-39 group will start getting vaccinated? Next couple of weeks?


  • #8408
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hyperbollix wrote: »
    anyone know when the 35-39 group will start getting vaccinated? Next couple of weeks?

    Today I assume, since I’m scheduled in an hour from now. 35


  • #8409
    griffdaddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭griffdaddy


    Hyperbollix wrote: »
    anyone know when the 35-39 group will start getting vaccinated? Next couple of weeks?

    It's already started


  • #8410
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    lucernarian wrote: »
    Is that the level of begrudgery you have to get to, that you mock even someone taking minimal precautions for their own reasons and business? Are you equating social distancing with mental illness?
    There is reasonable and there's extreme. It's not untrue to say that some may not recover mentally from this and it's also not surprising that others with lower perceptions of risk to get quite annoyed at their stance.


  • #8411
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,356 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    hynesie08 wrote: »
    You really have an issue with people having opposing viewpoints don't you?

    There is opposing views and your obsession with PTH2009,anyway I have said my bit and will leave it at that


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  • #8412
    SheepsClothing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭SheepsClothing


    is_that_so wrote: »
    There is reasonable and there's extreme. It's not untrue to say that some may not recover mentally from this and it's also not surprising that others with lower perceptions of risk to get quite annoyed at their stance.

    Its complete idle speculation to say people won't recover mentally. Reminds me of all the doom mongers in this thread claiming there was a suicide epidemic with zero evidence to back up their rubbish. The people getting annoyed at how others choose to behave during the pandemic need to get a grip and mind their own business.


  • #8413
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SheepsClothing wrote: »
    Its complete idle speculation to say people won't recover mentally. Reminds me of all the doom mongers in this thread claiming there was a suicide epidemic with zero evidence to back up their rubbish. The people getting annoyed at how others choose to behave during the pandemic need to get a grip and mind their own business.
    Having witnessed it first hand in the family I'd disagree and some of the older members will take a very long time to recover if at all. Yes the business minding goes both ways.


  • #8414
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    kieran26 wrote: »
    If everyone granted entry is fully vaciinated or has a recent negative test, where is the danger? It will have to be done sometime. A lot of these business will not be viable without a certain number of people allowed on the premesis.

    Seems like a resonable request to me. As long as it is monitored. although i suspect by the time anything is put in place vaccinaation levels will be such that it is not necessary. due to heel dragging form the government.

    Well for one it is endangering their staff if they aren't fully vaccinated by the time they can do this. Something people seem to keep ignoring as an issue. Pints don't pour themselves.


  • #8415
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    kieran26 wrote: »
    If everyone granted entry is fully vaciinated or has a recent negative test, where is the danger? It will have to be done sometime. A lot of these business will not be viable without a certain number of people allowed on the premesis.

    Seems like a resonable request to me. As long as it is monitored. although i suspect by the time anything is put in place vaccinaation levels will be such that it is not necessary. due to heel dragging form the government.
    They may bite on antigen tests, a reasonable compromise, but they don't like the enforceable discriminatory digital cert idea. Hospitality are against the cert idea too.


  • #8416
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Scottish case numbers have potentially peaked, registering a decline 3 days in a row now. Hard to tell as the numbers drop on the weekends, so we'd need to see it do the same for another couple of days.

    Very interesting to see if this continues, mostly because as far as I can tell, they've basically done nothing in response. If the decline continues, then in the absence of any more obvious explanation it suggests that their vaccination levels are enough effect some suppression of cases. They're at 50% fully done and another 20% with one dose.


  • #8417
    lucernarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    seamus wrote: »
    Scottish case numbers have potentially peaked, registering a decline 3 days in a row now. Hard to tell as the numbers drop on the weekends, so we'd need to see it do the same for another couple of days.

    Very interesting to see if this continues, mostly because as far as I can tell, they've basically done nothing in response. If the decline continues, then in the absence of any more obvious explanation it suggests that their vaccination levels are enough effect some suppression of cases. They're at 50% fully done and another 20% with one dose.
    How will the Govt react, given we will reach that point by July 19th? It would become hard to take NPHET's current predictions seriously, from any perspective, if this trend solidifies.


  • #8418
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    lucernarian wrote: »
    How will the Govt react, given we will reach that point by July 19th? It would become hard to take NPHET's current predictions seriously, from any perspective, if this trend solidifies.
    Glynn has said they will adjust their models. TBH it will want to be a model of under 100 cases a day peak for NPHET (and the government) to let go of their pathological fear of indoor activities.


  • #8419
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,372 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Last 4 weeks here 10062 cases, of which 198 hospital admissions: 1.96% admissions (going with a 1 week lag between positive case and admission, it's pretty much the same as cases haven't increased substantially)
    Maybe NPHET believe vaccinations case a higher hospitalization figure?
    I'm all for being cautious, but jesus it's has a big impact, at least use realistic figures.

    I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

    So 2% hospital admission rate.

    On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

    So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

    117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

    0.0024% case fatality rate.

    We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

    0.0024%.

    In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.


  • #8420
    jhegarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭jhegarty


    seamus wrote: »
    Scottish case numbers have potentially peaked, registering a decline 3 days in a row now. Hard to tell as the numbers drop on the weekends, so we'd need to see it do the same for another couple of days.

    Very interesting to see if this continues, mostly because as far as I can tell, they've basically done nothing in response. If the decline continues, then in the absence of any more obvious explanation it suggests that their vaccination levels are enough effect some suppression of cases. They're at 50% fully done and another 20% with one dose.

    Increase does appear to be slowing down across the uk, but today's number will be the real test. Last Monday was the last big jump.


  • #8421
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

    So 2% hospital admission rate.

    On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

    So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

    117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

    0.0024% case fatality rate.

    We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

    0.0024%.

    In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.
    IFR has always been the big emotional club to swing around with this and it was incredibly important when we had little mitigation anywhere there were people at risk. Since then and even pre-vaccination it's been of far less concern than the other two, hospital cases and ICU, which can cripple a health system.

    Isn't the UK at 1.6% anyway?


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  • #8422
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

    So 2% hospital admission rate.

    On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

    So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

    117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

    0.0024% case fatality rate.

    We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get to IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

    0.0024%.

    In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

    There weren't 92,056 hospital attendances from delta, there were only 161,000 cases of Delta total to the end of June


  • #8423
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Italy has recorded 31 more deaths on Monday – compared 12 the day before, its health ministry said, while the daily tally of new infections fell to 480 from 808.


  • #8424
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,372 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Deleted User wrote: »
    There weren't 92,056 hospital attendances from delta, there were only 161,000 cases of Delta total to the end of June

    I can only guess its got to do with them not sequencing/genotyping everything. Probably only the symptomatic/severe cases.

    Anyway, these are the numbers Public Health England are reporting. Period is February 1 to June 25. Table 4, page 13.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf


  • #8425
    brickster69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭brickster69


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

    So 2% hospital admission rate.

    On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta since Feb 1 2021.

    So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

    117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

    Its an approximation but we dont need the exact figure, ballpark, order of magnitude is all we need.

    0.0024% case fatality rate.

    We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get to IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

    0.0024%.

    In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

    One unknown is that it appears to be the case that the UK has or very nearly has broken the link between transmission and deaths. If others have done the same is yet to be determined.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #8426
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I can only guess its got to do with them not sequencing/genotyping everything. Probably only the symptomatic/severe cases.

    Anyway, these are the numbers Public Health England are reporting. Period is February 1 to June 25. Table 4, page 13.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

    Here is the relevant data from the report
    557663.JPG


  • #8427
    kieran26
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 248 ✭✭kieran26


    ShooterSF wrote: »
    Well for one it is endangering their staff if they aren't fully vaccinated by the time they can do this. Something people seem to keep ignoring as an issue. Pints don't pour themselves.

    Free Antigen / PCR tests for staff until they are fully vaccinated. if its good to gain entry as a customer it should be OK for staff too.


  • #8428
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,569 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

    So 2% hospital admission rate.

    On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

    So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

    117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

    0.0024% case fatality rate.

    We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

    0.0024%.

    In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

    Why are you dividing it by 50?
    And why are you using hospital attendance rather than case numbers?


  • #8429
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,372 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Here is the relevant data from the report
    ...

    Table 4 is better as it concentrates on delta alone with breakdown by vaccination cohorts. Same numbers anyway.

    557666.jpg


  • #8430
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,372 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Why are you dividing it by 50?
    And why are you using hospital attendance rather than case numbers?

    Its an attempt to get to an approximation of CFR. I know there are a number of unknowns but it should be good enough for an approximation. Get to a ballpark number.

    If 0.12% of the hospital admissions die and about 2% (1 in 50) of the cases get to hospital in the first place then CFR = 0.12% / 50 = 0.0024%.


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  • #8431
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 939 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    Its an attempt to get to an approximation of CFR. I know there are a number of unknowns but it should be good enough for an approximation. Get to a ballpark number.

    If 0.12% of the hospital admissions die and about 2% (1 in 50) of the cases get to hospital in the first place then CFR = 0.12% / 50 = 0.0024%.

    You're presuming there has been 4.8m delta cases in the UK?


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