Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Shelga wrote: »

So if our hospital admissions follow the UK’s, we could be looking at 66 people in hospital in two weeks, instead of 40?

Well no, because the UK are 6 weeks ahead of us.

We'd have closer to 120 in hospital and about 16-20 admissions per day by mid-August.

All of the indicators in the UK are poor; cases are growing exponentially, hospitalisations and ICU admissions have doubled in a month, and as we know these things don't just stop growing without making a change. They will double again in a month; the UK will have close to 600 people in ICU and 4,000 in hospital by the end of July.

And yes, deaths in the UK have also doubled in a month.

That tells us that following the UK's approach is (as it always has been) a bad idea, and means that at least pausing for a second to consider options is prudent. Disastrously executed though it may be.

Whatever about NPHET's mad models, there is enough data there to say that widespread opening of indoor hospitality without additional measures, would not be a good idea.

Avon8 wrote: »

Philip Nolan has, once again, made a complete tit of himself on twitter. This time with a basic misunderstanding of how to interpret and calculate 95% effective

Can you explain, in 280 characters or less, why his calculation is so wrong that it's not even sufficient as a simple example?

cheezums wrote: »

Really? How should it be interpreted?

95% effective relative to baseline chance of hospitalisation (1 in 5)
So when Nolan said 25000 at risk of hospital, really its 5000

timmyntc wrote: »

95% of all deaths to date have been in over 40s - of which we are mostly vaccinated.
Over 60s are still waiting due to a cock up and the AZ delays (initially 12weeks between doses)
40-60 is mostly done, many with J&J (1 shot)

Yes am optimistic for our response but just to clarify I think we need a majority of all age groups vacced before we see more good times.
Even if that means incentives for some, it should be done or else we will be trying to get out of this for a long time.

TheDoctor wrote: »

Approx 14% of the Russian population has received one dose a vaccine substantially lower than Ireland.

The vaccines being used are Sputnik V, EpiVacCorona, CoviVac and Sputnik Light none of which are the vaccines being used in Ireland.

Making a comparison between the two countries on Delta is a bad faith argument.

Firstly no argument here on vaccines, that was my point and as per Dr Henry.

Where did I make a comparison apart from their low level of vaccination?
My post was a positive as to our level and continuing high level of vaccination.

I take your reply as bad faith as you didn't read mine properly.

seamus wrote: »

Well no, because the UK are 6 weeks ahead of us.

We'd have closer to 120 in hospital and about 16-20 admissions per day by mid-August.

All of the indicators in the UK are poor; cases are growing exponentially, hospitalisations and ICU admissions have doubled in a month, and as we know these things don't just stop growing without making a change. They will double again in a month; the UK will have close to 600 people in ICU and 4,000 in hospital by the end of July.

And yes, deaths in the UK have also doubled in a month.

That tells us that following the UK's approach is (as it always has been) a bad idea, and means that at least pausing for a second to consider options is prudent. Disastrously executed though it may be.

The UK has never had any kind of a handle on contact tracing either and it doesn't follow we'll have the same disease profile, particularly with their issues with vaccine takeup in some cohorts. In that respect we are not comparable. I'm puzzled by the as goes the UK in cases so go we school of projections. We may have more cases we also may not. Our base is very low and the public health teams and other measures like pop-up testing have been effective in quashing larger outbreaks.

cheezums wrote: »

He didnt even mention hospitalisation though. He just said "vulnerable". i.e. not protected by the vaccine. Which is accurate.

No its not accurate. The 95% effective rate he quoted was the efficacy against hospitalisation (relative to no-vaccine rate).
It does not mean 5% are vulnerable.

Even if no one was vaccinate, you wouldnt have 100% "vulnerable". Some people do fine with covid. The efficacy and stats take this into account - Nolans modelling did not.

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

You've said it here actually, and its quite interesting.


Cases are growing EXPONENTIALLY
Hospitalisations have DOUBLED
ICU has DOUBLED


To me, that says the vaccines are working well. Hospitals and ICU should (more or less) follow the cases trend of going up exponentially. They arent. That is good.

I actually only said it that way because I hadn't bothered doing the calculation
Doubling is a form of exponential growth, it's not a good thing.

You're right, vaccines are helping because the cases are double every ten days, but serious cases are doubling every 30 days or so. But it's still an issue, because double becomes a lot in an incredibly short space of time. 8 deaths/day at the start of June becomes 16 at the start of July, 32 at the start of August, 64 at the start of September.

What level of vaccine rollout is needed to properly suppress this is unknown. We have to aim as high as possible and get there as quickly as we can.

Goldengirl wrote: »

Firstly no argument here on vaccines, that was my point and as per Dr Henry.

Where did I make a comparison apart from their low level of vaccination?
My post was a positive as to our level and continuing high level of vaccination.

I take your reply as bad faith as you didn't read mine properly.

I did read it properly, your first sentence was and I quote:

"Look at the figures for deaths in Russia from Delta which are rising atm before you talk again about it being enough to vaccinate just the old and the vulnerable."

Russia with 14% one dosed (not two) have not got close to vaccinating the old and vulnerable so using it as evidence that vaccinating the old and vulnerable inst enough immediately fails on the first test.

I supported my point by illustrating the completely different vaccines been used in the two jurisdictions. Again making any comparison between Ireland and Russia in relation to the delta variant completely null and void.

cheezums wrote: »

You are confusing efficacy and effectiveness. Not the same thing.

Secondly, vaccine efficacy (controlled tests) and effectiveness (real world) are not a "hospitalisation" metric.

Wrong again.

Why dont we revisit Nolan's modelling:
https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

The 95% figure he uses here is the efficacy relative to an unvaccinated person.
That 95% figure means that a vaccinated person is 95% less likely to develop severe disease relative to an unvaccinated person.

An unvaccinated person already has a 1 in 5 risk of developing severe disease, so for a vaccinated person that risk is 95% lower - 1 in 100 or 1% chance of developing severe disease.

All the vaccine efficacy studies measure it in this manner.

TheDoctor wrote: »

I did read it properly, your first sentence was and I quote:

"Look at the figures for deaths in Russia from Delta which are rising atm before you talk again about it being enough to vaccinate just the old and the vulnerable."

Russia with 14% one dosed (not two) have not got close to vaccinating the old and vulnerable so using it as evidence that vaccinating the old and vulnerable inst enough immediately fails on the first test.

I supported my point by illustrating the completely different vaccines been used in the two jurisdictions. Again making any comparison between Ireland and Russia in relation to the delta variant completely null and void.

Apologies if there is a ,misunderstanding here.
I thought you were quoting the post re the comparison of deaths from UK and Scotland, vs Russia.
I am in no way comparing Russia in terms of vaccination with us.
It is precisely their lack of suitable vaccination that is resulting in a rise in deaths there, as opposed to the UK and Scotland according to Dr Henry today, with a " vaccine wall" holding serious disease and deaths down there.
I reacted to a poster who was posting the old chestnut that once the old and vulnerable were vaccinated then that it would be unnecessary for younger people to be vaccinated.
Clearly that is not the case. Serious illness is rising although at a much lower rate in UK and Scotland. In younger people.

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Anyone think that the UK will reverse its "no going back" decision?

UK still has some things in place which we don't have here particularly for kids. Any suspected/known cases in a school class are told to isolate for two weeks, none of the pod stuff/contact tracing we were trying. There's currently no plans to change that although a bit of lobbying has started.

Honestly, I dont think they'll change tactics at this Point. If they do it'll be a few months from now when hospitalistions kick off but so far, they aren't concerned

timmyntc wrote: »

I'm using the terms as they should be used - exactly as they are described in the vaccine studies. Which Nolan is referencing when he uses that 95% figure. If the terminology is wrong its on his end.

Nolan came up with a figure of 25k people vulnerable to severe disease. As I have shown, that figure is false. The real number would be 5k. 5 times less.

That tweet from Nolan was not only incredibly misleading but bordering on being professionally negligent, especially for someone in his position.

NoLuckLarry wrote: »

I was the same after my 1st dose, grand for the day then went downhill late evening and woke up the following day feeling like a bus had run over me twice

AH man now your scarying me
Hopefully that just because your no luck Larry

Is it just me or do they sound like they're speaking from a drain pipe?

On May 12th total deaths were 4937

The number of people who have died is now 4,937

https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-latest-figures-28-5435091-May2021/

Total deaths today 1st July is 5000

The number of people who have died following a diagnosis of Covid-19 is now 5,000.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0701/1232493-covid-figures-nphet/

So in other words in 50 days a total of 63 people have died who had previously been had a positive Covid diagnosis in the previous 30 days, not exactly end of days material.

harr wrote: »

So no deaths for weeks and then they come out with a big scary number of 5000 total deaths today .. sounds like they are trying to justify keeping hospitality closed.

It's like they are pretending most of us haven't copped on that the figure is not 5,000 extra deaths since 2020.

cheezums wrote: »

Well done, you've mixed up efficacy and effectiveness a third time.

Secondly, you are creating all kinds of things that he didnt actually say. All he was saying was the vaccine doesn't work for everyone. 5% in fact. He couldn't have said it in more simple terms.

But that is incorrect It is absolutely untrue that the vaccine "doesn't work" for 5% of people

Why did NPHET refuse to support antigen testing?

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Hopefully someone in the media will call them out and tell them in an average day 80 people die from non Covid related reasons in Ireland for comparison. The shock and awe tactics they are coming out with need to be questioned.

This is what the media come for and it's what NPHET do so that's doubtful. They can get that other data elsewhere. Someone may probe them on the wild projections.

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Why did NPHET refuse to support antigen testing?

Tony is following the science on that....

I don't know how he hasn't been whipped up by the French or Germans or Brits Governments given that they are leading all their nations into the worst hurricane in their history....

Mind you, they probably wouldn't pay the same wages!!!