Beef price tracker 2

Dunedin · 29-06-2021 04:20PM

Water John wrote: »

Cripes, there were a few here a year or two ago telling us the consumer would never pay that sort of money for beef, ever again.

Has beef gone up much in the shops?

amacca · 29-06-2021 06:00PM

Dunedin wrote: »

Has beef gone up much in the shops?

I don't think so. It's always supply and demand. There's restricted supply or increased demand somewhere.

Is beef not moving from UK into NI and they're taking it from us instead?

memorystick · 29-06-2021 06:10PM

Water John wrote: »

Cripes, there were a few here a year or two ago telling us the consumer would never pay that sort of money for beef, ever again.

Blaming brexit if memory serves me well

Duke92 · 29-06-2021 06:56PM

Only offering me €4:20 in Waterford

Good loser · 30-06-2021 10:52PM

Water John wrote: »

Cripes, there were a few here a year or two ago telling us the consumer would never pay that sort of money for beef, ever again.

That claim was never made in this forum.

What was said (by myself and others) was that the price paid by the factories, or by Larry Goodman as some liked to say, was based on supply and demand. As the current boom in prices demonstrates.

wrangler · 01-07-2021 07:56AM

Jjameson wrote: »

The claim was that it’s a high volume low margin business. That they couldn’t give more. There’s 3 to 500 per animal after appearing to farmers from somewhere in this business.
So who was benefiting in 19?

I wouldn't be celebrating yet, look at the lamb price being reeled in, price down a euro/kg in a fortnight. As less farmers are finshing cattle in the frirst six months will surely mean higher supply in the autumn. It'll be interesting to see will it exceed the demand that's out there. There seems to bemore cattle in the system too

blue5000 · 01-07-2021 09:40AM

Exchange rate might account for 20c kg more per kg since Christmas. If restaurants are open in UK, that creates a higher demand for steak cuts. Lots of bbqs now too with the good weather and football. Enjoy it while it lasts lads.

Anto_Meath · 01-07-2021 09:45AM

While I would agree that there is more cattle in the system, I would guess with more smaller animals coming from the dairy sector, the overall tonnage of beef could be coming in around the same, however the factories would have more 5th quarters as a result. The beef game is like any casino - you win the odd time but the "house" is always winning.

Bass Reeves · 01-07-2021 10:18AM

wrangler wrote: »

I wouldn't be celebrating yet, look at the lamb price being reeled in, price down a euro/kg in a fortnight. As less farmers are finshing cattle in the frirst six months will surely mean higher supply in the autumn. It'll be interesting to see will it exceed the demand that's out there. There seems to bemore cattle in the system too

Cattle kill is expected to be back 120k this year compared to last year. We are about 60k below the figure at present. Projections are there is another 60k of a shortfall to be eaten into.

Higher supply will not really materialize until November/December untill 2020 cattle start to really come into the system. That is not to say that the processors will not try to pull a stunt like a few years ago and as they did in February and collude to drop the price. However they are being asked hard questions about February. The EU competition authority get to the insurance industry when the Irish CA failed. It is quite possible they may get involved beef price fixing as well

wrangler · 01-07-2021 11:11AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Cattle kill is expected to be back 120k this year compared to last year. We are about 60k below the figure at present. Projections are there is another 60k of a shortfall to be eaten into.

Higher supply will not really materialize until November/December untill 2020 cattle start to really come into the system. That is not to say that the processors will not try to pull a stunt like a few years ago and as they did in February and collude to drop the price. However they are being asked hard questions about February. The EU competition authority get to the insurance industry when the Irish CA failed. It is quite possible they may get involved beef price fixing as well

I thought actually it was one of your posts that said there was more cattle in the system.

Bass Reeves · 01-07-2021 12:14PM

wrangler wrote: »

I thought actually it was one of your posts that said there was more cattle in the system.

I do not think so. 2019 cattle were always going to be the lowest numbers we had in a few years. 2020 cattle will be up compared to 2019 by about 180-200k. 2021 bien cattle retained in the country due to be slaughtered in 2023 are up again.

People paying stupid prices for 2020 born cattle cod be in for a shock next year

jaymla627 · 01-07-2021 12:34PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I do not think so. 2019 cattle were always going to be the lowest numbers we had in a few years. 2020 cattle will be up compared to 2019 by about 180-200k. 2021 bien cattle retained in the country due to be slaughtered in 2023 are up again.

People paying stupid prices for 2020 born cattle cod be in for a shock next year

Look up the situation occuring in America re lake meade, large swathes of califronia agricultural land will be left idle next year as water rights are in all likelihood been pulled, i reckon food prices are in for a period of serious inflation

Danzy · 01-07-2021 09:50PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Look up the situation occuring in America re lake meade, large swathes of califronia agricultural land will be left idle next year as water rights are in all likelihood been pulled, i reckon food prices are in for a period of serious inflation

Agriculture west of Chicago in America and Canada is in big trouble this year with drought.

It's not like the last decade was any way wet enough to keep problems at bay for them.

It will affect their herd and there are questions about whether the 100mn+ people in the West are overstocked.

Water supply and electricity may be at breaking in autumn there.

It's 20 years now, quite a few experts there say this is the new normal there and that the last 2 centuries were a wetter than normal phase.

It should affect here but market forces are always moderated here for the Monopoly.

Cavanjack · 01-07-2021 11:02PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I do not think so. 2019 cattle were always going to be the lowest numbers we had in a few years. 2020 cattle will be up compared to 2019 by about 180-200k. 2021 bien cattle retained in the country due to be slaughtered in 2023 are up again.

People paying stupid prices for 2020 born cattle cod be in for a shock next year

I suppose anyone buying stores now are just after killing cattle and getting good prices.
Some say Your profit is the difference between what you sell and what you buy back in for, not what you buy for and what you sell for.

Good loser · 02-07-2021 12:34AM

Jjameson wrote: »

The claim was that it’s a high volume low margin business. That they couldn’t give more. There’s 3 to 500 per animal after appearing to farmers from somewhere in this business.
So who was benefiting in 19?

Supply is down demand is up. Consequences.

Bass Reeves · 02-07-2021 07:47AM

Cavanjack wrote: »

I suppose anyone buying stores now are just after killing cattle and getting good prices.
Some say Your profit is the difference between what you sell and what you buy back in for, not what you buy for and what you sell for.

Yes I am a believer in that element of the market. However because stores were scares last autumn they were harder bought than they should have been. As well less cattle gives you less of a chance to make a margin. When prices are rising lads think they will keep rising so pay above the odds to stay in the market. Finally more cattle mean that possible low margin/ losses is amplified.

If I make 50 euro extra profit on 20 cattle this year but make 50 less on 25 next year the potential for my loss is greater.

Bass Reeves · 02-07-2021 07:49AM

Good loser wrote: »

Supply is down demand is up. Consequences.

Supply was down in February as well,prices were rising all over Europe. Consequences?????

Prices drop in Ireland

Imagine that I suppose it was just s coincidence that processor feedlots needed to be filled.

mr.stonewall · 02-07-2021 09:58AM

Jjameson wrote: »

Abp half been taking half page ads since February reminding us of how they “pay on the day” as opposed the independent plants and Marts. The live mart trade is driving the demand here anyway. Northern/uk online buyer in Carnew every Saturday taking 200 odd cattle from the system combine with independent plants doing flat price deals including “out of spec” cattle seem to have increased throughout substantially..

Is there something Brexit related that’s helping both these causes to be thorn in the cartels side?

Brexit and covid has interrupted the rules of the game that processors have been playing. Throw in the fact of less cattle and the amount of finished cattle going through the marts, they are flustered and can't plan their usual tricks.

Good loser · 02-07-2021 10:06AM

Jjameson wrote: »

Abp half been taking half page ads since February reminding us of how they “pay on the day” as opposed the independent plants and Marts. The live mart trade is driving the demand here anyway. Northern/uk online buyer in Carnew every Saturday taking 200 odd cattle from the system combine with independent plants doing flat price deals including “out of spec” cattle seem to have increased throughout substantially..

Is there something Brexit related that’s helping both these causes to be thorn in the cartels side?

Over the past year or so cattle prices in UK strengthened and strengthened so that the gap to Irish prices neared €1 per kg.
This gap was so large and noticeable UK buyers took action - so that demand in Ireland improved and is still doing so; resulting in higher prices here. Only so much meat can be leached into the UK market before the farmers there kick up a stink about imports ruining their trade.
Brexit has given a fillip to nationalist sentiment in England - possibly boosting demand for local produce viz imports.

jaymla627 · 02-07-2021 11:13AM

mr.stonewall wrote: »

Brexit and covid has interrupted the rules of the game that processors have been playing. Throw in the fact of less cattle and the amount of finished cattle going through the marts, they are flustered and can't plan their usual tricks.

The price of meal has them in bother too, not even the part-time hobby lads who have off-farm incomes can justify mealing cattle, the winter finishers will surely not fill sheds this year unless they are offered contract prices to cover meal costs

Danzy · 02-07-2021 12:51PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

The price of meal has them in bother too, not even the part-time hobby lads who have off-farm incomes can justify mealing cattle, the winter finishers will surely not fill sheds this year unless they are offered contract prices to cover meal costs

Enough will fill them again.

With a lot of those lads it is habit and quite a few probably have deals with the factory.

leoch · 02-07-2021 01:08PM

do wee need to start a beef finishers anonymous page like the suckler page

Robson99 · 02-07-2021 01:34PM

Danzy wrote: »

Enough will fill them again.

With a lot of those lads it is habit and quite a few probably have deals with the factory.

I wouldn't be so sure. Good contenintal Store cattle were purchased circa €2.30 a kg last back end. 40 cent a kg better in the factories now compared to winter months. Can see more lads buying them and finishing off grass during the summer months. Winter finishing is a mugs game. And factories have been laughing at us for the past few years at it

Bass Reeves · 02-07-2021 11:11PM

Good loser wrote: »

Over the past year or so cattle prices in UK strengthened and strengthened so that the gap to Irish prices neared €1 per kg.
This gap was so large and noticeable UK buyers took action - so that demand in Ireland improved and is still doing so; resulting in higher prices here. Only so much meat can be leached into the UK market before the farmers there kick up a stink about imports ruining their trade.
Brexit has given a fillip to nationalist sentiment in England - possibly boosting demand for local produce viz imports.

BS
The processors use Irish beef to force down the price of beef in the UK. That is what happened two years ago. The processors were hosting that they would get it down to 3/kg.

The hullabaloo has actually changed grading which has improved a bit. 3 years ago it was impossible to get a Friesian onto an O- not to mind an O=. Everything was being driven down to aP grade as processor's were packaging all the beef for the supermarkets so it was immaterial to them what an animal graded.

Bass Reeves · 02-07-2021 11:19PM

Robson99 wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure. Good contenintal Store cattle were purchased circa €2.30 a kg last back end. 40 cent a kg better in the factories now compared to winter months. Can see more lads buying them and finishing off grass during the summer months. Winter finishing is a mugs game. And factories have been laughing at us for the past few years at it

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

Danzy · 02-07-2021 11:35PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

Agree with the finishing in Sept.

Between them not coming as quickly after then, price drops, damage to fields and having to leave buying till late October, don't think it is worth it, others might find it different but it's not suited to my locality.

bogman_bass · 02-07-2021 11:55PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

The price of meal has them in bother too, not even the part-time hobby lads who have off-farm incomes can justify mealing cattle, the winter finishers will surely not fill sheds this year unless they are offered contract prices to cover meal costs

I’ve been hearing that for the past 20 years

trg · 03-07-2021 12:14AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not only winter finishing. From now on I intend to try to have all cattle slaughtered by end of September. Impossible to get cattle , Friesians especially to finish off autumn grass. You wod have them on 5-6kgs and they still would not be fleshing out. Put them in on silage and ration is not the answer either.

It's will be costing 3 day to feed cattle inside in a shed, outside on grass and ration for the Autumn it will be costing 2/day neither is sustainable so I be aiming to hand everything by end of September.

It one thing getting wet and dragging ration to trough's through mud. Losing money at it as well is stupidity.
As my mother use to say ''fool me once shame on you...fool me twice shame on me''

What sort of stock would you finish by then?

Bass Reeves · 03-07-2021 12:22AM

trg wrote: »

What sort of stock would you finish by then?

Friesians, Hereford's, AA's virtually anything. Any weight gained after that is break even at best.

Good loser · 03-07-2021 01:15AM

Danzy wrote: »

Enough will fill them again.

With a lot of those lads it is habit and quite a few probably have deals with the factory.

When it comes to Sept/Oct/Nov the silage cost has already been incurred.
To retrieve that money guys go out and buy cattle.
Otherwise they would have to sell the silage out of the pit - which isn't easy especially at the start of Winter.
Need to empty the pits for next year's grass. A bit of a treadmill.

Beef price tracker 2

Comments