Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

duffman13 wrote: »

I'd imagine so, to be fair NIAC only changed their recommendation on Monday so NPHET may not have had time to include that but it's a huge caveat which according to that report wasn't clear at the cabinet discussion.

Honestly, as time goes on this modelling will be ripped apart

But they've given four different scenarios and predictions to the Govt, including a 'best case' and 'worst case'. Some media are reporting this as if they only made only a single doomsday prediction.

Can the text for an appointment be received at any time of the day?

Just wondering if it's anymore likely to receive it morning or night?

Thanks

eoinbn wrote: »

The HSE has classified asthma as a high risk, so have the CDC, but there is little to no evidence to support this. In fact many studies show that people with asthma have better outcomes which is possibly down to the medication that they are on.

What's the point of your comment?

Severe asthma (not asthma) requiring continuous or repeated use of systemic corticosteroids is classed as high risk and they can avail of the vaccine now.

I was told by the receptionist

“For cohort 7 with regards to asthma it was anyone who has been hospitalized in the last year. It is deemed as chronic asthma.“

I don’t fall into that category afaik

Trying to figure out where we will be at end of July with vaccines.

Current position (excludes today, based on Briain McCraith tweet)
4.1 million doses administered
1.6 million with 2 doses
0.07 million with J&J (fully vaccinated with 1 dose)
0.83 million with 1 dose only

Let's say we keep going with 50,000 doses per day for the next 32 days (all of July plus June 30th)

5.7 million doses administered
2.53 million with 2 doses (2.43 million who had at least 1 dose as at 29th June plus a bit extra to allow for people who get 1st doses before 3rd July)
0.2 million with J&J
0.44 million with 1 dose

With over 18 population of 3.75 million, that gives 72% fully vaccinated, 85% with at least one dose at end of July - wow! Even one dose gives 90%+ protection against hospitalisation.

So, do we have the supplies to get there - yes we do! Based on Belgium data, we are due to get 1.75 million doses from 28th June to 26th July (and we have a bit in stock right now).

And, we've shown we can do 50,000 doses a day. We can even go a bit faster using pharmacies for J&J and AZ. Everyone who wants a vaccine can get a 1st dose by mid August.

Maybe there is a flaw in my numbers, let me know if you spot anything

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Trying to figure out where we will be at end of July with vaccines.

Current position (excludes today, based on Briain McCraith tweet)
4.1 million doses administered
1.6 million with 2 doses
0.07 million with J&J (fully vaccinated with 1 dose)
2.43 million with 1 dose

Let's say we keep going with 50,000 doses per day for the next 32 days (all of July plus June 30th)

5.7 million doses administered
2.53 million with 2 doses (2.43 million who had 1 dose as at 29th June plus a bit extra to allow for people who get 1st doses before 3rd July)
0.2 million with J&J
0.44 million with 1 dose

With over 18 population of 3.75 million, that gives 72% fully vaccinated, 85% with at least one dose at end of July - wow! Even one dose gives 90%+ protection against hospitalisation.

So, do we have the supplies to get there - yes we do! Based on Belgium data, we are due to get 1.75 million doses from 28th June to 26th July (and we have a bit in stock right now).

And, we've shown we can do 50,000 doses a day. We can even go a bit faster using pharmacies for J&J and AZ. Everyone who wants a vaccine can get a 1st dose by mid August.

Maybe there is a flaw in my numbers, let me know if you spot anything

Sounds roughly right. In 2 weeks time, the aim is for 75% partly vaccinated, 55% fully because of AZ/Janssen being available to all age groups now.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mid-july-return-for-indoor-dining-if-uk-data-shows-delta-less-severe-government-1.4608050

Labour leader Alan Kelly said that the absence of the Niac data in the modelling presented to the Government on Tuesday was a “game changer”.

“If the vaccine is available to that age cohort, it will mean in two weeks’ time we will move from 50 per cent fully vaccinated, and 70 per cent partly vaccinated, to 55 per cent fully vaccinated and 75 per cent partly vaccinated,” Mr Kelly said after the meeting.

Final results on Curevac is 48% efficacy.

Economics101 wrote: »

Ireland is the only EU country not to have the Vaccine Cert ready on time.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0630/1232241-covid-ireland-figures/
They blame the Ransomware hack, but I thought that this did not affect the vaccination programme. So we are the only EU country not rolling out the certificate to-morrow. OK I know it was promised for July 19th, for what I thought was for reasons related to discouraging foreign travel. I just wonder what the HSE is really up to.

I'd have my suspicions the Govt simply didn't want international travel to start tomorrow and deliberately delayed the launch of the cert by two or three weeks.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Final results on Curevac is 48% efficacy.

Jeeez that’s a letdown. Any word on the effects on hospitalisations and death?

Reckon a new age group will open for the vax reg website. It's having updates. Can't currently logon

But perhaps may be just fixing bugs

Hardyn wrote: »

But only in the 18-60 age group. There's no data for older groups.

Do you have any idea why its performance is seemingly significantly lower than the other MRNA vaccines?

Hardyn wrote: »

But only in the 18-60 age group. There's no data for older groups.

Yes, and only 6 hospitalisations in the placebo group (compared to zero in vaccine group), so small sample size.

amandstu wrote: »

I have read somewhere that there is 5% of the population for whom these vaccinations just do not work?

This seems to be falsely attributed to Philip Nolan. He did made a statement trying to illustrate how a tiny proportion of a vaccinated cohort is still vulnerable. The trouble is people have taken his hypothetical scenario as an actual one.
Nolan imagined a vaccine 95% effective against severe disease to illustrate vulnerability of the health system to severe illness in vulnerable cohorts.

Side note :
This illustration was flawed. Nolan assumed the entire vaccinated cohort numbering 500,000 people would get infected. It's highly unlikely all 500,000 would be infected. The principle point he was illustrating was unaffected. The magnitude of the numbers though was well off. I hope he's aware of this and issues a clarification.