Dublin Bay South By-Election

hotmail.com · 29-06-2021 11:32AM

jm08 wrote: »

I thing the analyses is that the older you are, the more conservative you get.

I would think that the 18-35s are far more educated than those in the over 50s. SF gets a lot of support from this cohort.

Where has this education snobbiness come from? Another American culture import.

Leave it out. Thank you very much.

AndrewJRenko · 29-06-2021 11:34AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Very, very depressing poll result tbh. I'd generally be an "Anyone but FFG" kind of person but Ivana Bacik is one of the most despicably bigoted politicians in current Irish politics. Or at least, she was ten or fifteen years ago, perhaps she's chilled out a bit since then - it appears to have been scrubbed from all online existence, but I distinctly remember an article or lecture authored by her in which she suggested that only men could be criminals, and that if a woman commits a crime it's either because she had a legitimate reason to do it or because a man in her life pressured her into it.

Absolutely vile stuff. Flagrant "woman good, man bad" lowest common denominator sh!te. I'm digging through the archives to see if I can dig it up, all I can say is that you don't quickly forget an article which boiled your blood to that extent and her name is very unique.

I'd be as supportive of reducing incarceration rates for non-violent crimes as anyone else, but to do so in a bigoted, discriminatory manner? F*ck off with that absolute bollocks.

Does anyone else remember this policy plank of hers from back in the day?

Honestly between her and Geoghegan I'd have to very, very, very grittingly support her but it's very much a frying pan and fire situation.

How convenient for you that it's all been "scrubbed from all online existence", given that it allows you to basically make up anything about what she said and attribute that to her. It's kind of amazing, almost unbelievable, that someone with as many enemies as Bacik, has managed to hide or scrub anything in her past, that no-one managed to keep a copy or a quote. Literally unbelievable.

Marcusm wrote: »

In an orchestrated manner, within 2 days of Murphybstanding down, every FG branch declared for Geoghegan. It had clearly been contemplated for some time.

There's no way that a secret like that could be kept quiet in political circles. There's no way that multiple branch chairs knew well in advance, and if they did, there's no way they could have ensured that their branches voted in one particular direction.

Marcusm · 29-06-2021 12:05PM

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

How convenient for you that it's all been "scrubbed from all online existence", given that it allows you to basically make up anything about what she said and attribute that to her. It's kind of amazing, almost unbelievable, that someone with as many enemies as Bacik, has managed to hide or scrub anything in her past, that no-one managed to keep a copy or a quote. Literally unbelievable.

There's no way that a secret like that could be kept quiet in political circles. There's no way that multiple branch chairs knew well in advance, and if they did, there's no way they could have ensured that their branches voted in one particular direction.

My only sources are the press reports at the time. If Murphy knew he was leaving for 6 months or more then it would not be hard to “pack” the electorate. Periods immediately after elections are often pretty fallow.

She said there had been an increase in membership in the constituency since she lost her seat in the general election last year and that, if the conventional selection path was chosen, it would be impossible for her to be chosen.

“They added that just because 12 branches nominated Geoghegan to be their by-election candidate did not preclude O’Connell from seeking a nomination.“

“I’ve spoken to people across the country, people across the constituency, people who have supported me and people who would be in the know.

“And it appears that preparations have been made for a long time, that it would be impossible for me to win a convention.

She said there seems to be many reasons why she was not the “desired” candidate in this by-election.

Shelga · 29-06-2021 12:07PM

Don’t know who I would vote for if I lived in this constituency. Probably Soc Dems- surprised Sarah Durcan seems to not have a hope in hell.

FG/FF- absolutely not
SF- absolutely not
Labour- Bacik seems like a head wreck.

Doesn’t leave very much!

Furze99 · 29-06-2021 12:08PM

Will there be a good kicking for government parties from voters in their 60s? Who are looking askance at the vaccination regime foisted on them by this government - take it or go to the back of the queue.

VinLieger · 29-06-2021 12:14PM

Id fully expect to see a protest vote after today's outrageous shenanigans but again its not like there's any opposition calling for anything different.

...Ghost... · 29-06-2021 12:19PM

blanch152 wrote: »

You accept the factual basis of my statement - the bit in bold. Remember, all I said was that "the analyses show that the more educated you are, the less likely you are to vote for Sinn Fein, and vice versa."

The reasons for that were left unsaid. You have postulated a reason, that the real cause is location rather than education. That only explains the correlation, but it doesn't magic it away.

Apples and Oranges. Working class areas may have a higher proportion of people with less educated people living there than in a middle or upper class area, but it doesn't translate into votes for SF and that's a well established fact. I know plenty of working class people, most of whom are SF flag supporters, but they don't vote...not a single one of them vote.

I happen to have a family member who's marriage broke up and he ended up homeless for months, literally sleeping in parks. It was a SF TD who helped him secure accommodation and he has never voted for SF, or anyone. All the support in the world means nothing unless it's marked on a ballot slip.

If you can show me the analyses you speak of, I would gladly take a look. It matters who paid for the analyses, as one would need to know what, if any bias exists in the compiling of such data.

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

How convenient for you that it's all been "scrubbed from all online existence", given that it allows you to basically make up anything about what she said and attribute that to her. It's kind of amazing, almost unbelievable, that someone with as many enemies as Bacik, has managed to hide or scrub anything in her past, that no-one managed to keep a copy or a quote. Literally unbelievable.

I remember the article on this too. She also spoke about it on Newstalk a few years ago. She said there was no benefit to society to lock women up, because they aren't violent criminals like men could be. She argued that women only act violently to protect themselves, or their children from violent men. The stuff that woman comes out with is truly unbelievable. I'll see if I can find any reference to the article and will post it up if I do. Any search for the prisons article seems to just bring up her law stuff.

edited to add: This isn't the article I am trying to find, but this one does show that Bacik was calling for a review of "womens imprisonment" with a view to moving to "non-custodial sentences". You'll notice that there is a link to her statement on the Labor website at the bottom of the article, but that statement has been scrubbed. An article on the same issue from the Echo....also scrubbed.

There's no way that a secret like that could be kept quiet in political circles. There's no way that multiple branch chairs knew well in advance, and if they did, there's no way they could have ensured that their branches voted in one particular direction.

Kate was a bit of an outsider and didn't really gel with the main FGers, least of all Varadkar, who she referenced as a choir boy (veiled slur?). They made the right call leaving her out, because her interview said all we needed to know about her. Entitled, back stabbing, vindictive man hater. With 9 out of 15 candidates put forward for this by-election being women, nobody can argue unfair representation for women. May the best person win.

PhilOssophy · 29-06-2021 12:27PM

Furze99 wrote: »

Will there be a good kicking for government parties from voters in their 60s? Who are looking askance at the vaccination regime foisted on them by this government - take it or go to the back of the queue.

Well if the worst they have to complain about in their lives is not getting a menu of options for vaccines, Jesus wept for the poor things.

29-06-2021 12:54PM

Marcusm wrote: »

Is it really an issue of a parachuted in candidate or is the fact that she has declined to commit to the constituency at the next GE being held against her?

What do you mean, "commit to the constituency", commit what?

This is such a weird view of a TD's role, it implies that someone is elected to 'deliver' for the constituency. People can dress it up however they like, but it's little more than parish pump politics in an urban setting.

I always found it interesting that prior to about 1922-ish, it was reasonably common for TDs to run in more than one constituency. Even well into independence, some TDs were representatives in the north and south (I bet people didn't know that Sir James Craig was a TD up until at least 1927).

It still happens in the UK, with the likes of Boris Johnson merrily parachuting himself into a handy constituency. Why did we get into this mode where every TD has to be extremely local? They are elected to adance national policies.

Anyway, in other news, I see the odds have shortened against Bacik, now 6/5 giving chase to Geoghegan... what the hell happened? Lynn Boylan way at the back of the field, Claire Byrne a faller.

L1011 · 29-06-2021 12:57PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

(I bet people didn't know that Sir James Craig was a TD up until at least 1927).

Not that Sir James Craig, though. This one.

The future Lord Craigavon was only notionally a TD by virtue of being an MP in 1918. He never attended the First Dail, obviously

And it was for a University seat, so basically a Seanad electorate.

29-06-2021 01:11PM

L1011 wrote: »

Not that Sir James Craig, though. This one.

The future Lord Craigavon was only notionally a TD by virtue of being an MP in 1918. He never attended the First Dail, obviously

And it was for a University seat, so basically a Seanad electorate.

Oh that's disappointing. I assumed it was the real Sir James Craig, not this imposter. I've been telling people for ages that Sir James Craig was a TD post-independence, lol.

Anyway, my point being that back then people really did stand in different constiuencies to the places where they lived, often running in two constituencies in the same election. I assume the latter is no longer permitted, but I don't see why we became so insistent on local candidates in recent years.

L1011 · 29-06-2021 01:14PM

You can run in as many constituencies as you like but you can only represent one and need to give up any others you're elected to. Its just that most candidates doing it are cranks and get a few hundred votes at most so no risk of being elected multiply.

Two Councillors got elected to two MDs on the same council in 2019 though; and in recent enough times there was a dual Councillor - on two councils covering different areas - which was totally allowed (as was being a town and a county councillor pre-2014)

KevRossi · 29-06-2021 01:41PM

jm08 wrote: »

I thing the analyses is that the older you are, the more conservative you get.

I would think that the 18-35s are far more educated than those in the over 50s. SF gets a lot of support from this cohort.

Byrne (GP) leading in the 18-24 segment.
Geoghegan leading in 24-35 by a good bit
Bacik leading in 35-49
Geoghegan leading in all over 50's and they are more likely to vote.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409782339341803522

29-06-2021 01:43PM

L1011 wrote: »

You can run in as many constituencies as you like but you can only represent one and need to give up any others you're elected to. Its just that most candidates doing it are cranks and get a few hundred votes at most so no risk of being elected multiply.

Two Councillors got elected to two MDs on the same council in 2019 though; and in recent enough times there was a dual Councillor - on two councils covering different areas - which was totally allowed (as was being a town and a county councillor pre-2014)

What about sitting in Leinster House and the NI Assembly? I don't think there would be anything to prevent that.

I notice in the north, Section 4 of the NI (Misc. provisions) Act 2014 ended a dual mandate with Dail Eireann, but said nothing about the Senate. It would potentially be interesting to have, say, a junior Minister for Foreign Affairs sitting in the Stormont Executive. Obviously this is extremely unlikely, but interesting to ponder.

SF in government could even create a Taoiseach's senator from a First Minister and make them Minister for Northern Ireland.

iffandonlyif · 29-06-2021 01:47PM

KevRossi wrote: »

Byrne (GP) leading in the 18-24 segment.
Geoghegan leading in 24-35 by a good bit
Bacik leading in 35-49
Geoghegan leading in all over 50's and they are more likely to vote.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409782339341803522

I find such youth support for FG inconceivable. The sub-sample size must be minuscule.

L1011 · 29-06-2021 01:48PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

What about sitting in Leinster House and the NI Assembly? I don't think there would be anything to prevent that.

I notice in the north, Section 4 of the NI (Misc. provisions) Act 2014 ended a dual mandate with Dail Eireann, but said nothing about the Senate. It would potentially be interesting to have, say, a junior Minister for Foreign Affairs sitting in the Stormont Executive. Obviously this is extremely unlikely, but interesting to ponder.

I imagine if it came up as a possibility it'd be legislated out - the NI change was likely inspired by major NI SF figures running in ROI.

There's been a number of Lords in the Seanad.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

SF in government could even create a Taoiseach's senator from a First Minister and make them Minister for Northern Ireland.

SF wouldn't countenance that name for such a position!

blanch152 · 29-06-2021 01:54PM

L1011 wrote: »

I imagine if it came up as a possibility it'd be legislated out - the NI change was likely inspired by major NI SF figures running in ROI.

There's been a number of Lords in the Seanad.

SF wouldn't countenance that name for such a position!

Minister for National Unity would be the title.

29-06-2021 01:54PM

L1011 wrote: »

There's been a number of Lords in the Seanad.

That's an interesting one. Lord Iveagh was the last one I suppose. Good pub-quiz question there.

29-06-2021 02:04PM

iwasliedto wrote: »

Had FG twice at the door in the last week here in Sandymout. They are hitting the canvas hard, they really want this seat. I didnt really give them much time and told them straight that I would never vote for them in a million years, the first canvasers asked for a second preference, I laughed. Tonight I had Jennifer Carroll MacNeill she does do a good passing impression of a stepfor wife like James could be a stepford husband. She made a shapish and polite retreat.

Yer man Hugo MacNeill is well over 20 years older than her.

She kept his Goldman-Sachs-derived millions well out of the general election canvassing discussion last time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGWQ8O6sGFQ

Peregrine · 29-06-2021 02:07PM

KevRossi wrote: »

Byrne (GP) leading in the 18-24 segment.
Geoghegan leading in 24-35 by a good bit
Bacik leading in 35-49
Geoghegan leading in all over 50's and they are more likely to vote.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409782339341803522

Bear in mind that the margin of error on that would be around ±10-14%.

expectationlost · 29-06-2021 02:22PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

What do you mean, "commit to the constituency", commit what?

This is such a weird view of a TD's role, it implies that someone is elected to 'deliver' for the constituency. People can dress it up however they like, but it's little more than parish pump politics in an urban setting.

I always found it interesting that prior to about 1922-ish, it was reasonably common for TDs to run in more than one constituency. Even well into independence, some TDs were representatives in the north and south (I bet people didn't know that Sir James Craig was a TD up until at least 1927).

It still happens in the UK, with the likes of Boris Johnson merrily parachuting himself into a handy constituency. Why did we get into this mode where every TD has to be extremely local? They are elected to adance national policies.

Anyway, in other news, I see the odds have shortened against Bacik, now 6/5 giving chase to Geoghegan... what the hell happened? Lynn Boylan way at the back of the field, Claire Byrne a faller.

living in (or very near to) and representing a constituency isn't extremely local or parish pump. The constituencies are geographically based don't pretend they are not. One can contribute to national politics while recognising that. If you want a national list system go and argue for that don't pretend one already exists.

jm08 · 29-06-2021 02:34PM

...Ghost... wrote: »

Kate was a bit of an outsider and didn't really gel with the main FGers, least of all Varadkar, who she referenced as a choir boy (veiled slur?). They made the right call leaving her out, because her interview said all we needed to know about her. Entitled, back stabbing, vindictive man hater. With 9 out of 15 candidates put forward for this by-election being women, nobody can argue unfair representation for women. May the best person win.

She certainly was a bit of an outsider who took back the FG seat from Lucinda Creighton. Some pretty nasty stuff was planned for her including someone wanting to present her with a sod of turf after a meeting (bogger) and plants to put a sign pointing to the M50 outside her pharmacy. I'm sure there are plenty of Fine Gael members from outside Dublin who will no t forget those slurs from the Rathgar elite.

What can be argued though is that Fine Gael must look very bad to Dublin Bay South for dropping a woman who was very close to taking a 2nd FG seat in the last election for a complete unknown former Renua party member as recently as 2 years ago.

expectationlost · 29-06-2021 02:40PM

jm08 wrote: »

She certainly was a bit of an outsider who took back the FG seat from Lucinda Creighton. Some pretty nasty stuff was planned for her including someone wanting to present her with a sod of turf after a meeting (bogger) and plants to put a sign pointing to the M50 outside her pharmacy. I'm sure there are plenty of Fine Gael members from outside Dublin who will no t forget those slurs from the Rathgar elite.

petty and childish but hardly nasty.

29-06-2021 02:53PM

jm08 wrote: »

She certainly was a bit of an outsider who took back the FG seat from Lucinda Creighton. Some pretty nasty stuff was planned for her including someone wanting to present her with a sod of turf after a meeting (bogger) and plants to put a sign pointing to the M50 outside her pharmacy. I'm sure there are plenty of Fine Gael members from outside Dublin who will no t forget those slurs from the Rathgar elite.

What can be argued though is that Fine Gael must look very bad to Dublin Bay South for dropping a woman who was very close to taking a 2nd FG seat in the last election for a complete unknown former Renua party member as recently as 2 years ago.

KOC tried to make out that it was a big "from-the-top" conspiracy against her but the reality was actually just far more prosaic ->

The Fine Gaelers in the constituency just eventually came to the conclusion that she's a royal pain-in-the-hole*

*as well as toxic and divisive

awec · 29-06-2021 02:57PM

The reason for O'Connell not being selected were well documented earlier in the thread. She did an excellent job of ensuring she burnt as many bridges as possible, and is paying the price for it now.

...Ghost... · 29-06-2021 03:03PM

jm08 wrote: »

She certainly was a bit of an outsider who took back the FG seat from Lucinda Creighton. Some pretty nasty stuff was planned for her including someone wanting to present her with a sod of turf after a meeting (bogger) and plants to put a sign pointing to the M50 outside her pharmacy. I'm sure there are plenty of Fine Gael members from outside Dublin who will no t forget those slurs from the Rathgar elite.

What can be argued though is that Fine Gael must look very bad to Dublin Bay South for dropping a woman who was very close to taking a 2nd FG seat in the last election for a complete unknown former Renua party member as recently as 2 years ago.

They must really dislike her though to drop her and run a man in her place. They've been pushing hard for more women in recent years and in this instance, they ran a Renua bloke :pac:

The vitriol she spewed in that interview. It was like she was having a bottle of wine and sh1tting on her ex-husband. I'm delighted she was ruled out. Horrible person she seems to be.

Brussels Sprout · 29-06-2021 03:09PM

iffandonlyif wrote: »

I find such youth support for FG inconceivable. The sub-sample size must be minuscule.

One of my pet peeves is that they never give the MoE for these kind of breakdowns. I suspect that if they did, it would render the results meaningless.

RandomViewer · 29-06-2021 03:44PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I was pointing out the posters madness. Former Labour voters voting SF now in many cases.

So by his mad logic, they must have been uneducated then too.

I suspect he doesn't see it like that.

It's his only outlet these days,

Yurt2 · 29-06-2021 03:52PM

...Ghost... wrote: »

I remember the article on this too. She also spoke about it on Newstalk a few years ago. She said there was no benefit to society to lock women up, because they aren't violent criminals like men could be. She argued that women only act violently to protect themselves, or their children from violent men. The stuff that woman comes out with is truly unbelievable. I'll see if I can find any reference to the article and will post it up if I do. Any search for the prisons article seems to just bring up her law stuff.

This is my recollection also. She was pretty much advocating that women shouldn't be subject to custodial sentences.

She hosted a British academic on the Leinster House campus and refused to allow male members of the Oireachtas to attend as it was a women's issue.

Yurt2 · 29-06-2021 03:56PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Where has this education snobbiness come from? Another American culture import.

Leave it out. Thank you very much.

It was FG town crier blanch who using education as a proxy for intelligence (and we know that's b*llsh*t) was trying to infer that less than smart people vote for SF, and that all the very stable geniuses vote FG.

Turns out he didn't have his facts straight about ABC1 voters' level of support for SF, so he's retreated into the weeds (for now).

Dublin Bay South By-Election

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