Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

ACitizenErased · 29-06-2021 12:53AM

Graham wrote: »

There's definitely more to this.

I doubt it's a coincidence that the leaked details only reference the worst case scenario and none of the others.

the best case scenario was also reported

Graham · 29-06-2021 12:54AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

the best case scenario was also reported

Can I ask where? I'm only finding references to the worst case.

Sobit1964 · 29-06-2021 12:58AM

Graham wrote: »

There's definitely more to this.

I doubt it's a coincidence that the leaked details only reference the worst case scenario and none of the others.

Your posts tonight have been refreshing and honest.

Perhaps as it comes to the leaks, you might offer up an opinion as to your doubts? Why?

jammiedodgers · 29-06-2021 12:59AM

Graham wrote: »

Can I ask where? I'm only finding references to the worst case.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/grim-covid-projections-put-opening-of-indoor-hospitality-in-serious-doubt-1.4606220

The worst-case scenario would potentially see almost 700,000 cases of the virus over July, August and September, with as many as 2,170 deaths as the Delta variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic projection would see 81,000 cases and 165 deaths.

There is an expectation that Nphet will seek a delay of several weeks in reopening indoor hospitality.

The Irish Times understands the modelling estimates almost 13,000 hospital admissions over the three months, and more than 1,600 people in intensive care units (ICU) should the most pessimistic scenario play out. One source said this would see hospitals “overrun”.

The most benign scenario would see just over 1,500 admissions and 195 people in ICUs.

Deeper Blue · 29-06-2021 01:03AM

That NPHET letter has very strong whiffs of ISAG level craziness

Quantum Erasure · 29-06-2021 01:06AM

zackory wrote: »

So it looks like another 2 weeks but there won't be another "review" NPHET / media / leak / circus before that, it will be a confirmed date.

So today is Holohans last day to make himself feel relevant and important and we are done with him.

Finally.

Just catching up, what did I miss...?

29-06-2021 01:08AM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Just catching up, what did I miss...?

Holohan is claiming there will be 700,000 infections and 2000 deaths before September if the Government doesn't renege on the reopening date for hospitality, and has demanded he be allowed to continue banning all indoor hospitality with no time limit on his ban.

The shark couldn't have been jumped more if it spent its evenings wandering along Sheriff Street.

Whatsisname · 29-06-2021 01:16AM

Decided to do a catch up of the thread before bed, I was not expecting 30 new pages.

After NPHETs absolutely insane projections, I had a look back at last summer, between July and September. On the 23rd July, there were 9 reported deaths. The highest number from July to September. When we had 0 vaccines and very little immunity. Now, somehow, this year when all the vulnerable are vaccinated and presumably most other age groups seen as I know people in their 20s fully vaccinated, there’ll be over 2000 deaths?? There was less restrictions last summer ffs without a vaccine ffs!

I live in England and looking back at home now I don’t know what the **** is going on. Ireland has well and truly lost the plot.

My partner flew home for a week last week, she flew back from Dublin last night and got questioned by a guard in the airport about why she was here, where she was going and why she was going. She said he talked to her and everyone else like a piece of ****. This is the country that’s supposedly opening to EU travel in 3 weeks time and they’re still having guards interrogate people at the airports? I somehow doubt that.

The government need to grow a set and put Tony Holohan and NPHET back in their box. If it’s not the right time now to open up, it’ll never be the right time. I would genuinely be amazed if there’s no restrictions come winter and people were getting dogs abuse for saying that in here recently when it’s the most likely scenario IMO.

stephenjmcd · 29-06-2021 01:37AM

Well it would appear some sort of stand was taken at the sub committee level with regards to the projections

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1409669036342865921?s=19

stephenjmcd · 29-06-2021 01:39AM

One would suspect that they've bought themselves 2 weeks to see how things play out.

Government know and have said previously the idea of domestic vaccine passport was unworkable

Anyway time for some sleep I think, this is only the beginning of another row probably

https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1409669752646103049?s=19

Deeper Blue · 29-06-2021 01:44AM

By far the most dangerous virus in Ireland these days is NPHET

Graham · 29-06-2021 01:49AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Your posts tonight have been refreshing and honest.

I assume by 'honest' you mean there might now be things we agree upon.

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Perhaps as it comes to the leaks, you might offer up an opinion as to your doubts? Why?

If you're asking why I'm pi**ed off;

Messaging from government should have been absolutely crystal clear over the last few days. It should have gone something like this:

No decision has been made yet.

No decision can or will be made until government has received and reviewed the recommendations from NPHET and considered those recommendations alongside the wider impact on the Irish economy and the Irish people.

There should have been no hints or reading-between-the-lines suggestions from government over the last few days.

There should have been no leaks in advance of a decision being announced.

Tonights fiasco demonstrates clearly why. Media have jumped on the worst case scenario as it makes for great headlines/clickbait. Businesses/employees all over the country are bound to be upset/bewildered/frustrated trying to work out where they stand.

gozunda · 29-06-2021 01:53AM

RoryMac wrote: »

The leaks after NPHET have met and passed their advice onto the Gov are generally spot on, what the Gov do with that advice can be different as it was in the run up to Christmas

The so called "leaks" are frequently little more than journalistic stabs at trying to make out they know more than they do. The fact that they sometimes get it right is more down to a limited range of likley outcomes and / or or the old adage that a stopped clock is right at least twice a day.

29-06-2021 01:56AM

That's just depressing. If they delay now at very low hospital numbers, nearly all the most vunerable vaccinated, and the height of summer, then we can write off this year. Why have we been flattening the curve, protecting the elderly etc etc for all this time. Too many excuses available to them coming into the winter. We'll not get back to normal for a long time more with these people controlling our lives. Sick of the whole system. Fuc'ing joke. Done with it

Arytonblue · 29-06-2021 02:06AM

I'm just fcuking sickened by this tonight. I've turned 26 and I've spent the last year and bit bitter and fcuking angry at the way we as a country have been treated and led by these so called leaders, spinless and gormless tw@ts more like. Terrified of making a firm decision, 'hold off on this', 'worried on that', 'abundance of caution'. Make me puke at this stage. I'm gonna be remembering all this bollox for years, decades even, I can't wait to recall all this feckin ****e 20 years from now, some laugh we'l have at this utter lunacy.

My own personal relationship with this country, the state I pay taxes to, the laws I follow, the nation I belong to, which before 2020 had never really been a thing in my mind, has gone from mild level of passive acceptance to full on rage and vitriol, and there's a part of me that hates that. I love so much about the country I call home, it's people and culture are great. Yet, I can't stand this government and political class, I despise our national media and all it's fakeness and fear mongering feeding off terrifying it's audience to pump cheap ratings for their shyte programming, and it seems there just is a very large portion of Ireland's population who have a total 'f%ck you I've got my lot.' complex. It's the same with housing, the same with employment, insurance, drug laws etc People uder 40s in Ireland are f@cking screwed and its been entirely predictable and as depressing as Ireland always delivers. We can't complain unfortnately. people under 30 especially don't vote enough in pure numbers to help any long term change so it's just an older class of voters electing older class invested TDs, quelle surprise you get this level of caution, fear, indecisiveness and total fcuking negligence towards younger people in this nation. We don't vote for em in large enough numbers, so they know they don't need us I guess. Some fcuking social contract.

And lastly, for NPHET. I've had an overtly negative view of them the last year as overly zealus, cautious and utterly blinkered on 1 issue throughout covid, but fcuk me, tonight takes the proverbial. My, at times doubted by me , opinion of them as the worst ever case of a pushy bureaucrat gone waaaaay overboard in authority and self importance......... may actually be true afterall. What a fcuking shame that is.

corkonion · 29-06-2021 02:07AM

It was a Johnny logan/ shay healy eurovision song winner, but now its more relevant to Tony's advice on reopening (to be factual, not reopening, ever)
STAY In LOCKDOWN IN CASE THE DELTA VARIENT EXPLODES) Honestly, I've had enough, I give up.
I actually, genuinely, not being melodramatic, wish I was dead.

Atlantic Dawn · 29-06-2021 02:10AM

They should offer unrestricted flights to Switzerland for people unwilling to think the next 2 years are critical.

corkonion · 29-06-2021 02:11AM

I'll probably get banned for this post, that doesn't bother me at all, I genuinely can't take this anymore

29-06-2021 02:11AM

corkonion wrote: »

It was a Johnny logan/ shay healy eurovision song winner, but now its more relevant to Tony's advice on reopening (to be factual, not reopening, ever)
STAY I LOCKDOWN IN CASE THE DELTA VARIENT EXPLODES) Honestly, I've had enough, I give up.
I actually, genuinely, not being melodramatic, wish I was dead.

It's hard to keep going and I have felt very low because of the life we now have. Normality like we knew it will return but prepare yourself mentally for it to take a while. In the mean time try and find some happiness in what you do have.

29-06-2021 02:12AM

corkonion wrote: »

I'll probably get banned for this post, that doesn't bother me at all, I genuinely can't take this anymore

You shouldn't get banned but the copy and pasted "here are some helpful numbers" may replace your op.

corkonion · 29-06-2021 02:14AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You shouldn't get banned but the copy and pasted "here are some helpful numbers" may replace your op.

Honestly, the way I feel right now, is far beyond a helpline.

Real Donald Trump · 29-06-2021 02:16AM

Many thanks to Mr Tony for keeping the people of Ireland safe during these turbulent times :rolleyes:

gozunda · 29-06-2021 02:18AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well it would appear some sort of stand was taken at the sub committee level with regards to the projections

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1409669036342865921?s=19

I think that last bit needs to put in neon if the media slant about the latest leaks is anything to go by

NPHET modelling said to be very grim on the spread of Delta. But it is just modelling and not a guaranteed outcome

That and as with any modelling - there's a worst case scenario and a best case scenario. Bizarrely its always the worst case scenario where the needle seems to get stuck on.

Someone above quotes the IT detailing that for July, August, September"

The Irish Times understands the modelling estimates almost 13,000 hospital admissions over the three months, and more than 1,600 people in intensive care units (ICU) should the most pessimistic scenario play out.

Vs

The most benign scenario would see just over 1,500 admissions and 195 people in ICUs.

Taking the "benign scenario" thats 500 hundred people who might be admitted to hospital over an entire month and just 65 in ICUs for the same period .

Working out our daily totals atm - that's not difference to the present figures

29-06-2021 02:24AM

corkonion wrote: »

I'll probably get banned for this post, that doesn't bother me at all, I genuinely can't take this anymore

I feel the same, but I'm not going to waffle on about how to make it better. We need a mass movement to put a stop to it all, and take our lives back to normal. We really have to get on with living. Life is short, we've sacrificed enough. Past sick of it...

Edit: If you need to talk corkonion, hit me up on pm.

29-06-2021 02:26AM

Beirut wrote: »

I feel the same, but I'm not going to waffle on about how to make it better. We need a mass movement to put a stop to it all, and take our lives back to normal. We got to get on with living. Life is short, we've sacrificed enough.

Sign me up

Andrewf20 · 29-06-2021 02:32AM

Why is Europe not doing the same? Truly bizarre if we are on our own doing this.

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 29-06-2021 02:36AM

I was all enthusiasm and optimism earlier on and planning for getting together with friends I haven't seen in ages after my 2nd vaccine happens in a few weeks. Opened my phone to tweets and alerts about this.

Absolute downer to put it mildly. I am total wreck after the last year+. I just had my birthday for the second time in quasi-lockdown, basically on my own. I was recently single before it kicked off and I'm still single now, as I can't realistically meet anyone and I got so stressed/depressed last year I ended up with actual physical symptoms like damaged teeth from just sheer stress. Seems the insomnia's back too.

If this is where we're going, I am emigrating. I'll take my chances somewhere on the continent with less risk averse polices. Can't be that hard to find a job and I speak a few languages.

It just feels like Groundhog Day

hatrickpatrick · 29-06-2021 04:59AM

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Yeah the 19 of July stood out to me. It was one of the government produced ads.

July the 19. Why does that strike me as important? Would that be the day the lockdown ended?

Of course, they can't be that specific about the lockdown...

newhouse87 · 29-06-2021 06:07AM

WTF weren't they working on this fully vaccinated bull**** with months so pubs could open at least when they said. Micheal Martin is a joke, id say grow a pair but for a guy like him its not possible. Tony holohan just wants people to forget all about his cervical check scandal's and keep this **** ongoing.

boggerman1 · 29-06-2021 06:39AM

newhouse87 wrote: »

WTF weren't they working on this fully vaccinated bull**** with months so pubs could open at least when they said. Micheal Martin is a joke, id say grow a pair but for a guy like him its not possible. Tony holohan just wants people to forget all about his cervical check scandal's and keep this **** ongoing.

Your not supposed to bring up that thing that the T was involved in.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings