Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

Turtwig · 26-06-2021 11:49AM

degsie wrote: »

Still fuming I stepped forward for the AZ first dose and now feel totally exposed to the new variants. Won't happen next time!

At the time you had excellent protection against the known variants. You even have excellent protection against severe disease from delta after one dose (70%). After two doses this will be even greater.

The alternative would be no vaccine for a few weeks. Risk of severe disease to all variants and less of the population vaccinated. The quicker everyone is vaccinated the sooner we all have the best protection possible and can hopefully move on from this mess.

revelman · 26-06-2021 11:52AM

Turtwig wrote: »

At the time you had excellent protection against the known variants. You even have excellent protection against severe disease from delta after one dose (70%). After two doses this will be even greater.

The alternative would be no vaccine for a few weeks. Risk of severe disease to all variants and less of the population vaccinated. The quicker everyone is vaccinated the sooner we all have the best protection possible and can hopefully move on from this mess.

The largest study that has been done on the Delta Variant (by Public Health England) shows that two doses of AZ is 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation while Pfizer is 96%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Are people really obsessing about this 4%? Or do people just assume that AZ protection is much lower?

snotboogie · 26-06-2021 11:54AM

Graham wrote: »

According to ECDC

Germany
One Dose 60.9 %
Fully Vaccinated 37.2 %

Ireland
One Dose 63.8 %
Fully Vaccinated 38.4 %

EU/EEA
One Dose 57.9 %
Fully Vaccinated 34.9 %

Looks like we're slightly ahead of Both Germany and EU average.

I assume that the adult population? We have a significantly younger population than Germany and the EU at large. In terms of doses per capita, Germany are abou 10% ahead of us.

Caquas · 26-06-2021 12:00PM

duffman13 wrote: »

I'm sorry but this is revisionism, immunologists were advocating for us to follow the UK and stretch out the dosing regimes for mRNA as first dose efficacy against severe illness was so high. The delta variant has changed the thought process of a lot of people which is exactly hindsight as it didn't exist when these operational decisions were made.

Priority was made to not waste vaccines, get as many first doses into people as possible and vaccinate as quick as possible.

It wasn’t revisionism in March when the teachers and Guards threatened to go on strike over losing their priority (cohort 11, was it?)

First jabs give some protection but give no benefit under the reopening scheme i.e. your have to wait till you’re fully vaccinated to benefit e.g. travel.

My objection stands: the elaborate plan for sequencing the rollout to protect the most vulnerable has ended up putting many of the most vulnerable (over-60s) to the back of the queue. Yes, that’s with the benefit of hindsight but it should have been foreseeable.

duffman13 · 26-06-2021 12:36PM

Caquas wrote: »

It wasn’t revisionism in March when the teachers and Guards threatened to go on strike over losing their priority (cohort 11, was it?)

First jabs give some protection but give no benefit under the reopening scheme i.e. your have to wait till you’re fully vaccinated to benefit e.g. travel.

My objection stands: the elaborate plan for sequencing the rollout to protect the most vulnerable has ended up putting many of the most vulnerable (over-60s) to the back of the queue. Yes, that’s with the benefit of hindsight but it should have been foreseeable.

I have no idea how this is relevant to what you said and in fact it was absolutely the correct call to do an age based roll out. Thankfully we didn't bow down to unions on it.

Forget the "reopening scheme" as you call it. In March/April whatever vaccine you got first was the best one for anyone in an at risk category. Travel wasn't given a consideration at the time and rightly so.

Your last line literally says "with the benefit of hindsight but it should have been foreseeable" It's simple revisionism. If we hadn't of used those AZ dose (I got one) we would had close to 400,000 less people fully vaccinated and that would be nearly 600,000 by mid July.

It was the right decision at the time. It was still correct at end of May and I'd actually advocate its still the right decision now as Delta prevelance is still low and that cohort will be fully vaxxed by early July and 100,000s of others have gotten doses as a result.

revelman · 26-06-2021 12:42PM

News in Germany this morning that Moderna is going to deliver twice as many vaccines in the third quarter than was initially expected. Does this also bode well for us I wonder?

fun loving criminal · 26-06-2021 12:51PM

St.Spodo wrote: »

I think this is the biggest question facing us this summer. Looking at the level of educational disruption caused by Delta in the UK, whereby hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated children are currently self-isolating, it is quite possible that similar will happen here in the autumn. We won't have any children under 16 vaccinated by early September.

Was it before Christmas, they shut things down so that kids could go to school?

They cannot be shutting things down again in September when most people will be vaccinated.

Looks like there's no other option except for going online and I know the difficulties that can bring as well. Children might not have access to internet, putting parents out of work to look after kids.

Rebelbrowser · 26-06-2021 12:52PM

revelman wrote: »

The largest study that has been done on the Delta Variant (by Public Health England) shows that two doses of AZ is 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation while Pfizer is 96%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Are people really obsessing about this 4%? Or do people just assume that AZ protection is much lower?

Not sure what if anything this shows, but a relative of mine, 30s, with full AZ double dose has Covid now in the UK. Seem fine, just a bad head cold, but it is certainly symptomatic. I suppose they are just one of the 5% or 6% we see in efficacy rates.

delly · 26-06-2021 12:52PM

Caquas wrote: »

Yes, that’s with the benefit of hindsight but it should have been foreseeable.

Not sure if you realise the contradiction in this one line. Sure, be annoyed with the current situation, but I fully remember the day by day developments and there was a lot of difficult decisions that had to be made.

As a follow-up, look at the infection rate in the older age groups who have only had 1 dose, do you think that that is a coincidence or that it's because so many got jabbed with 1 dose early on. It's as if people have forgotten about old school covid like it's a minor irritation.

Probes · 26-06-2021 01:11PM

revelman wrote: »

The largest study that has been done on the Delta Variant (by Public Health England) shows that two doses of AZ is 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation while Pfizer is 96%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

Are people really obsessing about this 4%? Or do people just assume that AZ protection is much lower?

I think there is still some leeway on the confidence intervals, but that 4% means the AZ vaccine is actually half as effective as the Pfizer one. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s still very effective, but just saying it’s only 4% doesn’t tell the whole story.

VG31 · 26-06-2021 01:14PM

Probes wrote: »

I think there is still some leeway on the confidence intervals, but that 4% means the AZ vaccine is actually half as effective as the Pfizer one. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s still very effective, but just saying it’s only 4% doesn’t tell the whole story.

If it was half as effective as Pfizer it would be 48%.

Probes · 26-06-2021 01:22PM

VG31 wrote: »

If it was half as effective as Pfizer it would be 48%.

In terms of people being hospitalised it’s not, you’d have 10x the amount of people hospitalised at 48% compared with the Pfizer. It’s possible I’m miscalculating but that’s how I’m reading it.

PhoenixParker · 26-06-2021 01:30PM

The best thing to do is always to put numbers on it. % are very effing tricky and prone to being incredibly misleading.

Let's say a normal completely unvaccinated population of 1000 people ends up getting Covid and all of them end up in hospital.

The equivalent 1000 Pfizer vaxxed population would have 40 people in hospital.

The equivalent 1000 AZ vaxxed population would have 80 people in hospital.

It's technically correct in a very slanted and carefully worded view of things to say AZ results in twice as many people hospitalised as Pfizer

But

It's very misleading to say so as twice a small number is still a small number.

Probes · 26-06-2021 01:34PM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The best thing to do is always to put numbers on it. % are very effing tricky and prone to being incredibly misleading.

Let's say a normal completely unvaccinated population of 1000 people ends up getting Covid and all of them end up in hospital.

The equivalent 1000 Pfizer vaxxed population would have 40 people in hospital.

The equivalent 1000 AZ vaxxed population would have 80 people in hospital.

It's technically correct in a very slanted and carefully worded view of things to say AZ results in twice as many people hospitalised as Pfizer

But

It's very misleading to say so as twice a small number is still a small number.

It's not misleading, it's true!! It's misleading to say that it's misleading! I said I think the AZ vaccine is showing to still be very effective (which I said in the original post), but it's still half as efffective when comparing it to the Pfizer one. Nothing misleading about that.

revelman · 26-06-2021 01:35PM

Probes wrote: »

I think there is still some leeway on the confidence intervals, but that 4% means the AZ vaccine is actually half as effective as the Pfizer one. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s still very effective, but just saying it’s only 4% doesn’t tell the whole story.

Yes but there is a lot we don’t know. Isn’t it the case that in the U.K. most AZ went to older people whereas Pfizer went to younger people? Older people would more likely be hospitalised in any case. I can’t find anything in the original study using this as a control factor.

ACitizenErased · 26-06-2021 01:36PM

Update from PHE on the Delta variant and vaccines. 40% more transmissible than Alpha (down from >60% previously). 35% effective against symptomatic disease after one dose and 79% after two doses. 80% protection against hospitalisation after one dose and 96% after two doses, higher than previously estimated.

revelman · 26-06-2021 01:36PM

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not sure what if anything this shows, but a relative of mine, 30s, with full AZ double dose has Covid now in the UK. Seem fine, just a bad head cold, but it is certainly symptomatic. I suppose they are just one of the 5% or 6% we see in efficacy rates.

The figures are about preventing hospitalisation not symptomatic disease that falls short of hospitalisation. So that may explain it.

ACitizenErased · 26-06-2021 01:44PM

Just to add to the above, based on PHE figures the vaccines actually appear to be more effective against hospitalisation from the Delta variant than they are against the B1.1.7 Alpha variant.

Wolf359f · 26-06-2021 01:46PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Update from PHE on the Delta variant and vaccines. 40% more transmissible than Alpha (down from >60% previously). 35% effective against symptomatic disease after one dose and 79% after two doses. 80% protection against hospitalisation after one dose and 96% after two doses, higher than previously estimated.

So the current vaccines are more effective against hospitalisation (with both single and double doses) with Delta compared to Alpha?

revelman · 26-06-2021 01:48PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So the current vaccines are more effective against hospitalisation (with both single and double doses) with Delta compared to Alpha?

Or the Delta variant causes less morbidity and mortality than the Alpha variant. I remember reading somewhere before that often, when viruses mutate, they can become more transmissible but less deadly.

km79 · 26-06-2021 01:50PM

revelman wrote: »

Or the Delta variant causes less morbidity and mortality than the Alpha variant. I remember reading somewhere before that often, when viruses mutate, they can become more transmissible but less deadly.

Yes this is what pertinent scientists were telling us 6 months ago and it has come to pass
But everyone’s panicking !
I thought we were following the science ......

ACitizenErased · 26-06-2021 01:54PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So the current vaccines are more effective against hospitalisation (with both single and double doses) with Delta compared to Alpha?

That is indeed what Public Health England are saying yes. Suggests that the Delta variant is less deadly, to me anyway.

26-06-2021 02:05PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So the current vaccines are more effective against hospitalisation (with both single and double doses) with Delta compared to Alpha?

You need to look at the overlapping confidence intervals. Also the CI for Alpha is twice as wide as Delta so there's a bit more uncertainty there. 96% is probably closest to the true figure for both variants.

Turtwig · 26-06-2021 02:25PM

revelman wrote: »

Or the Delta variant causes less morbidity and mortality than the Alpha variant. I remember reading somewhere before that often, when viruses mutate, they can become more transmissible but less deadly.

Coronavirus doesn't necessarily need to become less deadly. It may become less deadly. It may not. It has a huge advantage with pre-symptomatic infection. Many viruses are only infectious when the individual is visibly symptomatic and mobility is impaired. By becoming less deadly the other viruses can spread easier as the infectious individual with less symptoms severity have a better chance of infecting others.

eoinbn · 26-06-2021 02:26PM

revelman wrote: »

News in Germany this morning that Moderna is going to deliver twice as many vaccines in the third quarter than was initially expected. Does this also bode well for us I wonder?

It is appearing in a lot of the German media but I cannot see it elsewhere.
They seem to be increasing the amount that is going to be delivered and also are moving some of it to July and August.
We were expecting 170k in July, 250k in August and 1m in September.
If the reports are correct we can expect 320k in July, 650k in August and 880k in September.
The July and August figures are the important ones as that alone would give us more than enough to vaccinate all adults.

podgeandrodge · 26-06-2021 03:04PM

I see pharmacies can soon offer the 1 dose Janssen vaccine to people. Do they verify if you've already had another vaccine, or can you 'double up' ?

Edit: I see on one site that they are "asking" people not to register if they have already had any previous dose of another vaccine, as stocks are limited. But not sure if there is verification here.

Wolf359f · 26-06-2021 03:39PM

eoinbn wrote: »

It is appearing in a lot of the German media but I cannot see it elsewhere.
They seem to be increasing the amount that is going to be delivered and also are moving some of it to July and August.
We were expecting 170k in July, 250k in August and 1m in September.
If the reports are correct we can expect 320k in July, 650k in August and 880k in September.
The July and August figures are the important ones as that alone would give us more than enough to vaccinate all adults.

Is there any Irish source with an up to date figure for all the vaccines we've actually ordered?

revelman · 26-06-2021 05:51PM

Quite a bizarre article from RTE.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0626/1231449-covid-ireland/

I don’t know if there is an issue with the reporting or the expert being quoted or both.

Professor of Experimental Immunology Kingston Mills said that indoor dining can reopen next week, but only with strict guidelines around who can go into pubs and restaurants.

Am I missing something. Does this professor determine if restaurants can open?

Also:

Speaking on RTÉ's Brendan O'Connor show, Prof Mills said: "People in their 60s in Ireland who have had one dose of the AstraZenca vaccine are still vulnerable, so they can't go to a restaurant.

"And if they're going to be forced to get a second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, it's not just the over 60s there is also vulnerable people in the younger age groups and some people in the 50 to 60 age group.

Again, how is he determining whether people with one dose of AZ can or can’t go to a restaurant? And what is this about being “forced” to get a second dose?

Maybe these quotes are being taken out of context but I find this article quite bizarre.

Micky 32 · 26-06-2021 06:28PM

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1408828214626197507?s=21

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1408754621405872129?s=21

timsey tiger · 26-06-2021 07:05PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

So the current vaccines are more effective against hospitalisation (with both single and double doses) with Delta compared to Alpha?

There is so much detail in that report, that not breaking down the figures for the different vaccines they have makes it seem like they are trying to not highlight something.

Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

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