Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They must not know about the situation in the UK.

They have 87% of their population vaccinated. If that's not enough to lift all restrictions what is?

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They're right to be lifting the restrictions, I'm just poking fun at our own cautious approach.

They surely must mean 87% of adults. 87% of population would mean every single adult would need to have a first dose.

I hate the confusion with % of adults and % of population. Media are always mixing them up.

ninebeanrows wrote: »

If they announce next week that indoor hospitality is definitely to open on 19 July, I think it will be accepted by the industry.

If they try and say, we will postpone the decision another 2 weeks, then it will not be accepted and there really is a question mark whether it will open for many months.

They won't give definites

It will be reevaluate in two to three weeks time

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They won't give definites

It will be reevaluate in two to three weeks time

Which is useless to businesses dealing in food.

Wait until the talk in August of protecting the return to school and we'll be into Autumn and Winter then. They just need to open up now! Entire businesses are going to have another lost summer if they delay opening. Heartbreaking for them.

Klonker wrote: »

Look, I'm not saying it's going to be delayed but don't pretend it's not being mentioned as very possible and I'm sure if a bookies was taking odds now they'd a delay of lifting would be the favourite.

There is no universe though in which that is not the case if you think about it. We could have no cases, nobody in ICU, 60% fully vaccinated, and there would still be commentators suggesting that delaying reopening is prudent because of variants. Just because commentators are talking about something, doesn't increase the likelihood of it happening.

Like I say, the fact that Donnelly, Varadkar and Martin aren't actively sandbagging right now, tells me that a delay gets less and less likely all the time.

The UK started laying the groundwork for delaying their reopening at least two weeks beforehand. First they started added random countries (except India) to their travel lists based on "the variant", then it was all talk about the concerning number of outbreaks across the country. They pushed back their reopening with seven days to go, but by the time they did it, it was very clear that it was coming. It had been building in the media all week and then leaked unambiguously on the Friday, before the announcement on the Monday.

We are now ten days away from our own next phase, and everyone seems to be thinking that we're 50:50 on whether it's going happen. So unless a story breaks today that shifts it considerably, then there is no way it's getting pushed back next week.
At worst, it'll be moved from a single reopening to phased one.

None of know for sure of course, this is just my commentary as I see it. Politicians never want bad news to be a surprise. They aim to carefully drip it out. In this case, all I see is speculation from commentators, not hints and suggestions from the actual people inside the circle.

Mary Favier is merely one advisor out of the 41 or whatever. It would be a mistake to assume she is representative of them all. Her day job is representing GPs, and her comments in relation to delaying reopening were more related to that role than they were to her position on NPHET.

Anyone have an opinion on this? Looks good to me. Plus nearly 7million people on this island! 54 in hospitals with 13 of those in icu! One part has indoor hospitality open with stable hospitals and has opened the vaccine programme for anyone over 18

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408365194070351876?s=21

eskimohunt wrote: »

There is no reason to delay reopening on 5 July, none.

We can see what the Indian Variant is doing in the UK -- nothing whatsoever. Cases rising, but no hospitals overwhelmed. They are set to drop all restrictions in 3.5 weeks.

If it's good enough for the UK who have performed the experiment with the variant, then it's good enough for us.

We have to learn to live with the virus, and that means taking some degree of personal risk.

That personal risk evaluation should not be determined by Government. The crisis phase of the pandemic is quite clearly over.

There is something else at play.

Apparently only 25% of those in their sixties (who took AZ vaccine already) have been fully vaccinated.

Our entire response to Coronavirus needs to be independently investigated by someone from abroad with expertise.

We don't have experts on this in Ireland.

If other countries are fully or nearly fully opened then the Irish people are entitled to know why they are being asked to still carry out pre-vaccination lockdown style measures.

My opinion on it is that it all comes down to the health service and a decade of understaffing and underfunding.

It's a total f**k up.

seamus wrote: »

There is no universe though in which that is not the case if you think about it. We could have no cases, nobody in ICU, 60% fully vaccinated, and there would still be commentators suggesting that delaying reopening is prudent because of variants. Just because commentators are talking about something, doesn't increase the likelihood of it happening.

Like I say, the fact that Donnelly, Varadkar and Martin aren't actively sandbagging right now, tells me that a delay gets less and less likely all the time.

The UK started laying the groundwork for delaying their reopening at least two weeks beforehand. First they started added random countries (except India) to their travel lists based on "the variant", then it was all talk about the concerning number of outbreaks across the country. They pushed back their reopening with seven days to go, but by the time they did it, it was very clear that it was coming. It had been building in the media all week and then leaked unambiguously on the Friday, before the announcement on the Monday.

We are now ten days away from our own next phase, and everyone seems to be thinking that we're 50:50 on whether it's going happen. So unless a story breaks today that shifts it considerably, then there is no way it's getting pushed back next week.
At worst, it'll be moved from a single reopening to phased one.

None of know for sure of course, this is just my commentary as I see it. Politicians never want bad news to be a surprise. They aim to carefully drip it out. In this case, all I see is speculation from commentators, not hints and suggestions from the actual people inside the circle.

Mary Favier is merely one advisor out of the 41 or whatever. It would be a mistake to assume she is representative of them all. Her day job is representing GPs, and her comments in relation to delaying reopening were more related to that role than they were to her position on NPHET.

Its not just Favier, Walley was on NT saying the same thing,


Heres an extract of an article in the examiner:
"the chair of the Irish Medical Organisation's GP committee said the Government should not rely on the number of hospitalisations associated with Covid-19 when making decisions about easing restrictions next week."


ISAG took over the airwaves earlier in the week,


Reid from the IT "the State was at a “point of unease and apprehension as to what might happen next”.


Its clearly a concerted effort to pressure the government.

Cork2021 wrote: »

Anyone have an opinion on this? Looks good to me. Plus nearly 7million people on this island! 54 in hospitals with 13 of those in icu! One part has indoor hospitality open with stable hospitals and has opened the vaccine programme for anyone over 18

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408365194070351876?s=21

I think that's the more important piece. So last week 80% of sequenced swabs were confirmed Alpha (they do a quick check for some added or missing gene) anything missing it or having it is a different variant to Alpha. So last week 20% were non Alpha. That quickly changed to 20% was Delta....

Anyway, it appears that B.1.1.318 is growing faster than Delta.
B.1.1.318 seems to be another UK variant, information is a little scarce, it's a VOI rather than a VOC.

TefalBrain wrote: »

Tony won't like this

https://news.sky.com/story/no-substantial-covid-outbreaks-reported-after-mass-test-events-report-finds-12341747

Circus Nightclub in Liverpool hosted almost 7,000 people over two nights and recorded 10 cases. Quick lock everything down!!!!! 10 cases

He's concerned

Give him this one

https://twitter.com/CentralFMNews/status/1408442374750097408

RGS wrote: »

Its not just Favier, Walley was on NT saying the same thing,


Heres an extract of an article in the examiner:
"the chair of the Irish Medical Organisation's GP committee said the Government should not rely on the number of hospitalisations associated with Covid-19 when making decisions about easing restrictions next week."


ISAG took over the airwaves earlier in the week,

Walley, McCauley nor ISAG are part of NPHET though.

Walley and ISAG have been flapping gums with doom and gloom for a year and have been consistently ignored by the government.

Its clearly a concerted effort to pressure the government.

There's a concerted effort from the hospitality sector too. Someone is always pressuring the government on something.

The point is that there are little indications coming from those who actually make or influence the decisions on what way things are leaning. If they had a good inkling at this stage that they were going to push back, then we would hearing about it directly from sources in government or NPHET. But we're not. Even Dr. Favier's commentary could at best be considered a pessimistic caution rather than a clear statement of intent.

If Martin himself doesn't make a statement between now and the end of Monday that suggests quite clearly that the 5th is looking unlikely, then you can take it that it's going ahead. Martin is risk averse in relation to covid, but also in relation to politics as well. He doesn't drop bombshells.