Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

KrustyUCC · 24-06-2021 10:03PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Couldn't be arsed watching prime time given the trash they usually serve up. What's he saying then ?

Saying we need mitigation measures like contact tracking and good ventilation but he's hopeful indoor hospitality should be on 5th

He didn't call for a delay for more vaccinations even after discussing more people getting vaccinated with increased supplies

zackory · 24-06-2021 10:04PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is nothing in any available data to suggest any delay to the current timeline is warranted. The main reason being, the vaccination program so far should slow down any negative trend enough to give time to react if necessary, which I don’t think will be

Yet rte news are saying minsters are discussing a 2-3 week delay.

Disgraceful ramping from the pan nphet / government / media front.

normanoffside · 24-06-2021 10:05PM

McConkey has gone back to his March 2020 persona

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1235212229412376577

robindch · 24-06-2021 10:06PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

To see it being flushed down the drain over a 'pandemic' that mostly kills people above the age of life expectancy is a joke - just not a very funny one.

There are six people dead from covid or covid-related illnesses amongst my friends and family - your comment that this "is a joke" defies my ability to type a polite reply, so in the expectation that this is your actual, honest and bizarre belief, rather than a cheap and nasty swipe at grieving families, I will say nothing.

24-06-2021 10:06PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I agree nothing in the data to warrant a delay

Whether one will happen or not is up in the air

Paul Cunningham on rte saying ministers open to a delay is worrying

Ministers are open to anything that will abdicate an actual decision. I still have confidence that the actual decision will rely on data. I am willing to be proven wrong. If there has been no adverse trend or significant evidence from elsewhere delay would be pointless.

LessOutragePlz · 24-06-2021 10:13PM

Graham wrote: »

Or maybe we continue to vaccinate people.

And not reopen hospitality and indoor dining on the 5th of July as planned?

PTH2009 · 24-06-2021 10:19PM

It's a massive blow bit it might soften it if indoor hospitality is 100% opening mid July but that won't happen as they will say 'we can't say it will 100% open as it would be unfair getting people's hopes up'

****ing shambles

Graham · 24-06-2021 10:43PM

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

And not reopen hospitality and indoor dining on the 5th of July as planned?

It's probably a good idea to continue to vaccinate people regardless of what happens with hospitality on 5th of July.

Klonker · 24-06-2021 10:52PM

Was Sam McConkey introduced as a member of ISAG? I'm just curious as he's actually been more optimistic the last few appearances I heard him on. He was optimistic on Pat Kenny earlier in the week too. Big change from with a few months ago.

24-06-2021 10:54PM

Graham wrote: »

It's probably a good idea to continue to vaccinate people regardless of what happens with hospitality on 5th of July.

Well i dont think they are going to stop vaccinating people if the hospitality sector opens up or not on July 5th.

Jinglejangle69 · 24-06-2021 10:59PM

normanoffside wrote: »

McConkey has gone back to his March 2020 persona

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1235212229412376577

Obviously he's realised how much ****e he has been talking for the last 6 months.

Better late than never I suppose.

Klonker · 24-06-2021 11:00PM

Graham wrote: »

It's probably a good idea to continue to vaccinate people regardless of what happens with hospitality on 5th of July.

Don't think the poster implied otherwise. Straight out of the avoid answering a straight forward question handbook

Graham · 24-06-2021 11:06PM

Klonker wrote: »

Don't think the poster implied otherwise. Straight out of the avoid answering a straight forward question handbook

Do I think we should continue to vaccinate people and not reopen on the 5th?

Yes, we should we continue to vaccinate people.

Reopening on the 5th should probably be decided based on the trajectory of the Delta variant as that's the biggest threat currently.

Do I know what the Delta figures are going to look like over the next days/weeks, unsurprisingly I don't.

Klonker · 24-06-2021 11:16PM

Graham wrote: »

Do I think we should continue to vaccinate people and not reopen on the 5th?

Yes, we should we continue to vaccinate people.

Reopening on the 5th should probably be decided based on the trajectory of the Delta variant as that's the biggest threat currently.

Do I know what the Delta figures are going to look like over the next days/weeks, unsurprisingly I don't.

Grand, looking forward to this time next week when case numbers haven't increased, hospital numbers down, most up to date actual Delta cases and not some guess by Tony on twitter have barely increased and NPHET advice to delay easing of restrictions and you'll admit its overly cautious and wrong decision. Can't wait

Stormyteacup · 24-06-2021 11:23PM

Graham wrote: »

Do I think we should continue to vaccinate people and not reopen on the 5th?

Yes, we should we continue to vaccinate people.

Reopening on the 5th should probably be decided based on the trajectory of the Delta variant as that's the biggest threat currently.

Do I know what the Delta figures are going to look like over the next days/weeks, unsurprisingly I don't.

Do we really not have an indication of the probable trajectory of the delta variant and its impact on hospitalisations though?

We’re not shooting in the dark, there is international data that should by all rationales trump modelling that NPHET themselves have described as problematic.

Sobit1964 · 24-06-2021 11:31PM

Klonker wrote: »

Grand, looking forward to this time next week when case numbers haven't increased, hospital numbers down, most up to date actual Delta cases and not some guess by Tony on twitter have barely increased and NPHET advice to delay easing of restrictions and you'll admit its overly cautious and wrong decision. Can't wait

I suspect that next week we might see case numbers go up - i doubt any big shift in hospital or death numbers. Ireland tends to follow the UK, with the rest of the EU following a month later.

A less fatal more contagious variant has arrived - which was expected, as after all this is a virus, not some evil master villain which calculates your portion of chicken tendies before pouncing, while being careful to 'not care about your feelings'.

Any impact to opening up is down to following the fear, not the science.

Klonker · 24-06-2021 11:34PM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

I suspect that next week we might see case numbers go up - i doubt any big shift in hospital or death numbers. Ireland tends to follow the UK, with the rest of the EU following a month later.

A less fatal more contagious variant has arrived - which was expected, as after all this is a virus, not some evil master villain which calculates your portion of chicken tendies before pouncing, while being careful to 'not care about your feelings'.

Any impact to opening up is down to following the fear, not the science.

I agree about the fear over science but I'm doubtful we'll see an increase in cases. A stagnation more likely.

Graham · 24-06-2021 11:38PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Do we really not have an indication of the probable trajectory of the delta variant and its impact on hospitalisations though?

We’re not shooting in the dark, there is international data that should by all rationales trump modelling that NPHET themselves have described as problematic.

We have an indication what's happening in other countries yes. As do those countries.

Let's have a look at the UK, what's their thinking. They're a few weeks ahead on relaxing restrictions and have a higher percentage of the population vaccinated:

The really big question is how much that wave of infections is going to translate into hospitalisations. The fact that we’ve got 55% of the adult population double vaccinated means that this will be substantially less bad than it could have been, but we still don’t know exactly how bad it could be.

“Sixty per cent more infectious is extremely worrying—that’s the main thing that will drive the speed with which the next wave comes along. And the fact that the level of hospitalisations from this infection appear to be maybe up to double those of the previous infection is of course also extremely concerning.”

Does delaying the easing of covid-19 restrictions make a difference?
Yes, because it allows more people to receive two doses of the vaccine.

Even if the death rate with delta is lower, could the healthcare system still be overwhelmed?
Absolutely.

Source: British Medical Journal.

If our Delta case numbers remain static over the next few days/weeks and our vaccine program continues to progress I suspect that will have the largest bearing on the next stage of restrictions easing. Moreso than any projections.

baldbear · 24-06-2021 11:38PM

Can't wait for pub pints indoors in August.

Sobit1964 · 24-06-2021 11:40PM

Klonker wrote: »

I agree about the fear over science but I'm doubtful we'll see an increase in cases. A stagnation more likely.

I hope you are right - 16k+ cases in the most jabbed country in Europe today, albeit with them testing every second fart, sniffle, foreigner, for any possible signs of a runny nose which failed to develop - may make them an outlier.

KrustyUCC · 24-06-2021 11:41PM

baldbear wrote: »

Can't wait for pub pints indoors in August.

The schools will be returning in August

Couldn't jeopardize their reopening

Pubs will have to wait lol

Graham · 24-06-2021 11:42PM

Klonker wrote: »

I'm doubtful we'll see an increase in cases. A stagnation more likely.

That would be a major result right now. I really hope you're right.

Sobit1964 · 24-06-2021 11:44PM

Graham wrote: »

That would be a major result right now. I really hope you're right.

Given that its already in Ireland - do you see any possible way that this comes to pass?

MOR316 · 24-06-2021 11:48PM

normanoffside wrote: »

We'll be passing Granny the gravy boat out the window.

Still makes me laugh that

Unbelievable stuff

Graham · 24-06-2021 11:49PM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Given that its already in Ireland - do you see any possible way that this comes to pass?

Hope.

Increases in case numbers are pretty marginal right now. If we can keep it that way, happy days.

200,000 - 300,000 vaccinations a week will certainly help shrink the size of the pool covid gets to swim in.

Sobit1964 · 25-06-2021 12:05AM

Graham wrote: »

Hope.

Increases in case numbers are pretty marginal right now. If we can keep it that way, happy days.

200,000 - 300,000 vaccinations a week will certainly help shrink the size of the pool covid gets to swim in.

The UK is more jabbed, one would assume that Ireland should do worse in the spread.

I'm not sure how 'we keep it that way', as despite draconian limits on travel, this leaks, remember the UK variant? This would be expected if we actually followed the science instead of some communist policy of China.

I'm waiting for someone to post the death and hospitalisation numbers from the UK from this variant vs vaccinated. I wont do so, as raw data is now subject to being 'misinformation', and frankly after the past year if you support whats going on, you should 100% grab a jab.

Graham · 25-06-2021 12:11AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

The UK is more jabbed, one would assume that Ireland should do worse in the spread.

I'm not sure how 'we keep it that way', as despite draconian limits on travel, this leaks, remember the UK variant?

We've done a better job of keeping it out (so far).

I suspect the 'draconian' travel restrictions (inbound and outbound) have played more than a small part there.

Sobit1964 · 25-06-2021 12:18AM

Graham wrote: »

We've done a better job of keeping it out (so far).

I suspect the 'draconian' travel restrictions (inbound and outbound) have played more than a small part there.

No need to put draconian in 'draconian', its the greatest restriction of free travel since WW2. We live in a modern connected world, families exist across borders, and this has been brutal on them and many others.

We have achieved exactly the same as the old but nearly forgotten 'flatten the curve' concept - merely kept it away for longer. The virus doesn't care about your lockdowns and semi porous border - this keeps getting proven, I wonder where the evidence is to the contrary.

charlie14 · 25-06-2021 12:27AM

Klonker wrote: »

Is the UK not in Europe now?

Far as Fergal is concerned it does not seem to be as case numbers are rising there.

Stormyteacup · 25-06-2021 12:35AM

Graham wrote: »

We've done a better job of keeping it out (so far).

I suspect the 'draconian' travel restrictions (inbound and outbound) have played more than a small part there.

It’s generally accepted that it will be the dominant strain. How exactly did we do a better job of keeping it out other than we have fewer arrivals from it’s supposed origin?

Travel restrictions are useless in keeping variants out. We have Kappa, Iota, Eta and Zeta, and more here. If there’s a dominant mutation out there, it will come to our shores.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings