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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,995 mod Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Summer 2021.

    If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

    Thanks



    After a chilly Spring how is the beginning of Summer 2021 shaping up? It's been unseasonably chilly up to a few days ago with temperatures struggling to reach 11 or 12C over the past 2 months and single digits much of the time. Over the past few days we have seen a big increase in temperatures to slightly above normal values and the first spell of early summer weather.

    The current warm and dry interlude is not going to last long. The Atlantic is already trying to break this down and it will become increasingly unsetted as this week progresses, starting with western areas from tomorrow and all areas becoming unsettled from Wednesday, however rainfall totals look fairly low overall. Temperatures from midweek will lower back to average values and this will continue into the weekend.

    However once we get past this weekend, we do appear to be on a warming trend once again with signals that temperatures could lift up and take off at some stage later next week.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-05-31&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Overall the first half of June is looking on the warm side and there is the chance we could tap into a very warm spell at some point either later next week or the following week. June could well turn out to be a dryer month than May and it will certainly be much milder than the very cold May.

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    A bit of a battleground scenario this weekend between the Atlantic doing it's best to try and break through, and a big area of high pressure over Scandinavia. This will result in average temperatures, a fair deal of cloud and some showers this weekend. Temperatures generally between 14 and 18C over the weekend.

    From next Sunday/Monday temperatures will begin to rise once again, possibly reaching 19 or 20C in many places. We will still be in this battleground scenario with cooler Atlantic air trying to take hold while warmth begins to build to our east.

    Bank holiday Monday looks fairly mild with temperatures in the high teens, possibly 20 or 21C in places and it will be mostly dry but there could be some showers about as well.

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    By this stage we are well into the unreliable time frame, it appears as the cooler and more unsettled conditions will sit in the Atlantic and the warmth from the continent will edge in over Ireland as the week progresses.

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    Temperatures will be high teens to low 20s, particularly in the eastern half of the country with warmer air taking over.

    GFSOPUK06_270_5.png

    The weekend of 12th/13th June could see temperatures lifting up to the mid 20s in many areas particularly if there are good spells of sunshine.

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    We finish up with an increasingly unstable setup and possibly very warm with temperatures possibly getting up to 25 or 26C but an increasing risk of a thundery breakdown.

    GFSOPUK06_342_5.png

    Low pressure with some thunderstorm actiivty may begin to break down this warm spell allowing cooler conditions into the second half of June but this is a long way off.

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    Current precipitation forcast looks like normal rainfall values in more western areas, particularly coastal areas more prone to Atlantic breaking through. Eastern areas may not see much in the way of rain over the next 10 days with only small amounts of rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days.

    234-777UK.GIF?31-6


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Comments



  • ECM looking better again from early next week as ridging develops up over Ireland and we become predominantly more under the influence of Hp. ECM showing less rain again on the latest charts and looks set to become increasingly warmer as the week goes on, possibly into the low to maybe mid 20's for many away from coasts and currently showing it to dip back a bit the weekend in the high teens to the low 20's range. ECM can be conservative with it's temperature predictions so will be keeping an eye to see if they might even get higher then shown at present. Time to get the shorts out I think and let some sun at my milky white shins :eek: :pac:

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  • GFS 12z brings the breakdown of the warm weather forward to 13th June with much cooler and unsettled conditions following, many of the other members are in agreement to a cooldown after next weekend.

    ECM still stays high and dry right to the end, same with the GEM.

    We still look on course for a 3 to 6 day warm spell later next week.




  • Gonzo wrote: »
    GFS 12z brings the breakdown of the warm weather forward to 13th June with much cooler and unsettled conditions following, many of the other members are in agreement to a cooldown after next weekend.
    The gfs constantly flops and changes too often. It almost looks likes it’s chasing a breakdown or a heatwave. The same can be said in winter as regards easterlies and mild westerlies. I certainly wouldn’t be reading anything into the gfs after 5 days from its output.

    There is a good link on netweather from the USA. It’s the Atlantic Ocean pressure charts. It gives a very reliable 7-10 day forecast. Almost the same as the ecmwf. More reliable than the the gfs and gem.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php




  • A cooler outlook most noticeably at night time. A few wetter days like around next Tues/ Weds and the following weekend with showery days in between but perhaps one consolation especially for us in the Western side of the country is that even with the rain is the prospect of brighter fresher spells and might even get a few bright evenings with sunsets instead of all the low overcast cloudy conditions at present.

    GFS quite similar , differences in positions of Lp and where would get the most rainfall as would expect. GFS showing the E getting the most rainfall the following weekend but a long way to go with nothing certain out to then.

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  • Next week will see big changes in the weather, especially for the east where it has been mostly warm and sunny since the end of May. Temperatures will remain fairly mild after a warm weekend up to about Tuesday with 20C possible on Monday and Tuesday.

    The real breakdown begins Wednesday to a much cooler airmass. Night time in particular will be much cooler everywhere with temperatures well down in the single digits and daytime highs of 11 to 16C, possibly cooler than this when stuck under a band of rain.

    Low pressure will move in from the north-west dragging much cooler air through the country with bands of rain and plenty of cloud.

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    It will remain very cool till the 23rd of June and possibly beyond with low pressures stalling over Ireland as high pressure and much warmer air just to the east and south of the UK will prevent the cooler Atlantic air from making much progress into the continent.

    GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

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    It looks to remain fairly unsettled up to Friday 25th with regular areas of low pressure driving bands of rain or showers in off the Atlantic.

    At the very end of the GFS there are signs we may see an improvement in the temperatures and flimsy signs of things becoming more settled as the Azores high may attempt to ridge up towards us from the south-west, but will it get here and influence Ireland?

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  • We're half way through June and up to now June has been very good In the east with plenty of warm and dry weather and a fair deal of sunshine. It wasn't a classic by any means but most days saw sunny spells and temperatures comfortably getting into the high teens to low twenties.

    The second half of June appears to be setting up a much cooler and more unsettled theme with the Atlantic getting going proper from this Sunday.

    GFSOPEU06_108_1.png

    It looks relatively cool and unsettled with the majority of Ireland and the UK under a cool Atlantic flow and low pressures close to or over Ireland over the next 7 to 10 days.

    Between 30 and 50mm of rainfall is forecasted for the next week to 10 days, however I think these charts may trend wetter over the next few days.

    240-777UK.GIF?16-6

    GFSOPEU06_288_1.png

    Latest GFS ensembles shows it becoming very unsettled with plenty of rainfall spikes for the second half of June and temperatures either average to slightly below average. I haven't seen an ensemble this wet since the middle of May.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-06-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    There are hints at the end of the ensemble that we may see signs of warmer weather towards the end of the month and into the beginning of July. We may have to wait about 2 weeks for things to warm up again. This is a long way out in the unreliable timeframe but hopefully we will get another slice of summer by then.

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  • any FI charts for beginning of July? Predictions for the south west in particular?




  • stooge wrote: »
    any FI charts for beginning of July? Predictions for the south west in particular?

    At the moment everything after this Friday is up in the air and anything after this weekend is pure FI so right now anything is possible for the first week of July. There is a chance that the first week of July could be reasonably nice but we could also find ourselves in an unsettled setup with low pressures swirling around proving to be an annoyance. Perhaps later next week we will get a clearer picture what the opening days of July have on offer. The past week was meant to be unsettled and instead we have been greeted with 4 very sunny days in a row, so predictions right now are fairly difficult.




  • ECM continues to show a trend of decent temperatures next week and getting up to the mid 20's later in the week . GFS leaning towards HP but not as warm, GEM leaning towards HP also, UKMO up to Monday slow to clear the LP. Will see if a trend sticks.




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  • Interested in this update if you get time meteorite. Appreciated


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  • Looks like the ECM and GFS have flipped in the opposite directions this morning. ECM is showing the low hanging around and circling back up over the UK whereas the GFS has it heading southeast over Europe with a nice warm spell in its place over Ireland.




  • stooge wrote: »
    any FI charts for beginning of July? Predictions for the south west in particular?

    Same for me! Westport in particular!
    But as Sryanbruen says looks like it's almost impossible to predict currently as what weather we have got recently is not that which was forecast! :)




  • eon1208 wrote: »
    Interested in this update if you get time meteorite. Appreciated

    I think all the models showing warm settled weather with light winds now for next week . Temps increasing over the weekend , getting up to the low to mid 20's next week, GFS and ECM currently showing a possible change around the weekend of the 7th but that is a long way off. Rain levels look very low if any from Sunday until the end of next week according to the ECM, GFS and GEM models. Quite promising at this stage would think. Will see if that LP stays far enough South around Biscay or could it send in some rain bands , not showing on the models currently.

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  • Some sort of a weather breakdown looks more likely for the weekend coming, hard to know exact timing or how heavy but Lp looks set to come close to the W of Ireland sending in associated fronts . Variable winds over Ireland at times but with a S'ly /SW'ly feed of moist humid air. Will be on the watch for instability leading to convection and thunderstorm activity, possibility of some heavy showers. Some high Dp's showing up and convergence zones likely, temps not as high as the week gone by but likely to get into the high teens or touching 20C or so.


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  • Today the models seem more or less in agreement to a breakdown in the weather beginning this weekend and is setting up possibly a very unsettled first week of July.

    The GFS has been trending more unsettled over the past few days with any hints of warm and dry weather appearing less and less in the models. The ECM has also changed to an unsettled outlook with a cooler than average week next week. GEM has been showing an unsettled setup for several days now so all the main models are in agreement to a fairly active Atlantic dominated period coming up.

    The CFS is at odds with all this, still going for high pressure and warm weather next week but as of now it is completely on it's own with this idea.

    In general there has been alot of uncertainty with the models over the past few weeks. The last time we had a very unsettled GFS ensemble run it didnt go to plan at least for Ireland and we've been in a mostly dry and relatively warm setup since the 30th of May. I am hoping that the models have gone overboard with this unsettled outlook and that we may see a moderation in this rather wet and progressively cooler setup over the next few days. How long we keep this unsettled pattern going for remains to be seen but I am hoping it is nothing more than a week before we get warm and hopefully dry weather going again.

    ECM brings an area of low pressure in from the Atlantic this weekend introducing much more in the way of cloud and rain/showers.

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

    By Tuesday this area of low pressure will be right on top of the country and becoming fairly cool by this stage with bands of showers or longer outbreaks of rain.

    ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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    The unsettled and relatively cool setup persists till the end of today's ECM run.

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    GFS 12z is very similar to the ECM bringing in an area of low pressure over the weekend.

    GFSOPEU12_126_1.png

    GFS keeps us unsettled with bands of heavy rain or showers crossing the country throughout next week.

    GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

    Low pressure dominates throughout the GFS run with low pressure never far away from Ireland at any point.

    GFSOPEU12_336_1.png

    We finish up with another area of low pressure about to rattle through Ireland from the Atlantic.

    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

    GEM is basically similar to the ECM/GFS with low pressure dominating throughout next week and into the following week.

    Not much rain over the next 3 to 4 days but by the end of next week many places could see 50 to 70mm of rainfall if today's very unsettled charts verify.

    240-777UK.GIF?29-12




  • Thanks for that Gonzo. I read the potential for showers as early as Thursday. Are showers likely Thyrsday.. Appreciate your outlook...




  • eon1208 wrote: »
    Thanks for that Gonzo. I read the potential for showers as early as Thursday. Are showers likely Thyrsday.. Appreciate your outlook...

    a chance of showers in southern areas Thursday afternoon, but most places should stay dry till Saturday morning.




  • What is north kerry like friday ,I have hay to bale like the rest of the country but it is not cut long enough to bale thurday .Any bit of sun at all would do me




  • ECM showing it particularly wet around next mon into Tues as a Lp moves up the country, currently showing a bit windy in Southern counties but a long way off yet before the final track and strength is certain.

    Fair amount of rain being predicted from later Fri to the end of the run.

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  • Misery :(


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  • Some rain would be welcome as growth conditions have slowed down quite a lot. We're not looking for a monsoon of course. What way are things looking for next weekend in the west, I have started following the met Eireann monthly forecasts, they have been a pretty decent indication of how things are going but obviously shouldn't be taken as fact as they are so far out.




  • The problem I have found with getting a decent June is quite often the rest of the summer goes downhill. Not saying it's going to rain everyday between now and September but when the Atlantic breaks through properly after a quiet month it can be a very difficult pattern to shift away from.

    As for rainfall next week is looking very grim indeed with no shortage of rain. Some places could see half a months worth of rain in just one week with 50-60 mm possible.

    Rain/Showers pushing through the country during Saturday from the south-west.

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    Heavy rain or showers throughout Sunday

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    Monday more of the same, heaviest showers across the north in advance of a deep area of low pressure moving in from the south-west.

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    Tuesday into Wednesday could bring a deluge particularly to southern and eastern areas with some very heavy and persistent rainfall.

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    After Wednesday it remains unsettled but showers rather than longer outbreaks of rain.




  • How are temperatures looking next week with this type of weather?




  • Sorry for the chat but Gonzo in your opinion is this nailed on?
    Have a holiday planned in Kerry starting Monday and wondering should we bother with the whole indoors closed!




  • Call me Al wrote: »
    How are temperatures looking next week with this types of weather?

    A cooling trend, mild this weekend and next week generally 13 to 18C, once it's raining temperatures probably no better than 13 or 14C. If there are any decent spells of sunshine 18C or 19C is possible.




  • Thanks so much for this Gonzo! My heart is sinking at the thought of all that rain and 3 very bored kids as a result.......
    I'm hoping Westport might escape the worst, but it looks pretty miserable on Monday and Tuesday.....wah, wah!
    I appreciate your time in putting this together!




  • If theres a slight shift South the West and North may not be as wet as the South.

    Still cool everywhere next week though in the Northwest the same as its been this week




  • Hopefully it's sort lived this rain, even though we need it.
    Hope the rest of July will pickup (fingers crossed) what do you think Gonzo?




  • To answer all of the above and to keep to a minimum the chat in this technical thread, the next 1 to 2 weeks look unsettled with temperatures either average or slightly below average.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2021-07-01&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    There is alot of uncertainty after a weeks time with an even split between remaining cool and unsettled to more settled and warmer. Up to next Wednesday looks very wet and after that slightly dryer but still unsettled and relatively cool.

    Right now nobody can guess what all of July is looking like, we have to make it through the first week of July which looks very unsettled and then during next week we will take another look and hopefully watch for signs of an improvement in the weather. This big shift in the pattern to progressively cool and unsettled isn't just going to affect Ireland, it is going to affect all of the UK and much of France/Belguim/ Netherlands too. England in particular has had a very poor 2 weeks already which we were very luck to escape.

    My guess is we will see an improvement in the weather after next week to something warmer but that will either be more settled or more volatile.


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  • There are tentative signs of an aam rise, changes in Pacific pressure, this should lead to a more settled outlook for NW Europe, but will only take effect in around 10-14 days time, so I reckon we should see decent weather for the second half of July, just have to get through this unsettled spell over the next week or so...


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