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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ZX7R wrote: »
    The protest is in Dublin!
    Yeah, but they'll go back to Donegal with whatever they brought! :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Yeah, but they'll go back to Donegal with whatever they brought! :p

    Donegal variant, oh no...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,379 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Surprised there is no outrage about the mass gathering of protesters in Dublin today.
    Must be that they weren't drinking ha.

    In fairness there is a bit of a difference between people losing their homes to faulty blocks and people thinking that rte staff are eating dead babies to keep themselves looking young and burying the remains under the children's hospital!!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    In fairness there is a bit of a difference between people losing their homes to faulty blocks and people thinking that rte staff are eating dead babies to keep themselves looking young and burying the remains under the children's hospital!!!!

    You wouldn't have though that two weeks ago reading some of the posts on here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Donegal variant, oh no...
    Donegal Catch!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,625 ✭✭✭User1998


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Surprised there is no outrage about the mass gathering of protesters in Dublin today.
    Must be that they weren't drinking ha.

    Probably because they aren’t young


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,268 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    User1998 wrote: »
    Probably because they aren’t young

    Or pissing in shop doorways


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,672 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    We've had how many protests and "outrageous" outdoor gatherings by now, and not one has led to a spike in cases?

    Maybe now the lack of outrage is justified - its simply not a risk.


  • Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    *...generously applies alcohol-based solution to hands whilst adjusting microphone height*

    Good afternoon everybody.

    Today we are reporting 283 new cases of COVID-19, bringing our national total to 267,344. There have been no additional deaths.

    There are currently 60 patients hospitalized with the virus with 23 in critical care.

    Our 14-day incidence of the disease is 105 cases per 100,000 population.

    I'll now hand you over to Gavan Reilly for more on today's epidemiology.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1404830789825662977

    Thank you Dr. Glynn. I'll now hand you back over to Tony to reflect on the weekend's activities in central Dublin.

    Tony: "The scenes at the weekend were beyond deplorable to say the least....B]45 minutes later[/B...and that's why, even though you haven't asked your question yet, I agree with you George: we do need another lockdown.."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    In fairness there is a bit of a difference between people losing their homes to faulty blocks and people thinking that rte staff are eating dead babies to keep themselves looking young and burying the remains under the children's hospital!!!!

    What does it matter what anyone is protesting?

    Worthy causes are okay ‘in the middle of a pandemic’ but only if judged a morally acceptable cause.

    Otherwise protesters are a danger to public health?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/algorithms/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf

    Its always better to inform yourself of the facts before making wild assumptions

    Yes but from your link;

    ‘When it is not practical to implement the process outlined here and no differentiation
    between a positive result (unqualified) and a positive result qualified as high Ct value
    /low viral load is accessible it is necessary to proceed on the basis that a positive test
    is evidence that a person is infectious.’

    And also;

    ‘Interpretation of results is dependent on the availability of Ct values/viral load. Laboratories may not report Ct values routinely but should provide the result in the context of expert interpretation on request. If Ct values/viral loads are not available for any reason (for example some platforms do not display Ct values) the default is to assume a positive result represents a significant result and that the person is infectious. It may be appropriate however to retest the sample on a platform that does display Ct values.’

    Guidance is reasonably clear but do you have any information on how many reporting labs have platforms that display CT values (I don’t know - could be 10%, could be 90%)?

    An example of guidance being clear but not possible is the ‘one entrance, one exit’ guidance for hospitality. All good if you’ve two entrances, but many don’t and so guidance doesn’t apply.

    CT cycles run to 40 and admittedly high CT returns are few But imo the guidance is loose. Labs are unlikely to be comparing each sample with sample history for prior symptoms, prior infection, and local community level of infection, for every sample collected. And the director of each lab makes the call for cutoffs, there’s no regulation as such.

    What I’m saying is it’s hardly an unequivocally scientific streamlined collection of data. There is much open to interpretation based on personnel, and on system capability.

    Plus, that document is from April this year - is it possible that prior to then the thresholds for ‘detected’ were higher? What were the guidelines last October for example? Are the current comparisons for antigen vs PCR from recent PCR reporting guidelines or from last year?

    Yes PCR is the gold standard, but its drawbacks are sensitivity and time limitations - at this stage of vaccination rollout and infection control, while pressing on with hopefully resuming normal life, we should be employing antigen tests in certain situations/locations to manage transmission as an additional tool, where their advantage is accessibility, cost and faster result.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,047 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    There's the data. There's the findings. This is why decisions and policy are based on real world scientific data.

    It's the rest of the world I feel sorry for, if only they knew what we know! :-(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,240 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Probes wrote: »
    That would be an edge case indeed, are there actually any examples of this happening?

    There are quite a lot of examples of people being unable to fly home due to positive PCR tests post recover.
    Here is one article outlining the problem:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/irish-stranded-abroad-despite-full-recovery-from-covid-19-1.4486675


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,106 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    No Indian variant in New York it seems


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    *...generously applies alcohol-based solution to hands whilst adjusting microphone height*

    Good afternoon everybody.

    Today we are reporting 283 new cases of COVID-19, bringing our national total to 267,344. There have been no additional deaths.

    There are currently 60 patients hospitalized with the virus with 23 in critical care.

    Our 14-day incidence of the disease is 105 cases per 100,000 population.

    I'll now hand you over to Gavan Reilly for more on today's epidemiology.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1404830789825662977

    Thank you Dr. Glynn. I'll now hand you back over to Tony to reflect on the weekend's activities in central Dublin.

    Tony: "The scenes at the weekend were beyond deplorable to say the least....B]45 minutes later[/B...and that's why, even though you haven't asked your question yet, I agree with you George: we do need another lockdown.."

    Bizarre


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes but from your link;

    ‘When it is not practical to implement the process outlined here and no differentiation
    between a positive result (unqualified) and a positive result qualified as high Ct value
    /low viral load is accessible it is necessary to proceed on the basis that a positive test
    is evidence that a person is infectious.’

    And also;

    ‘Interpretation of results is dependent on the availability of Ct values/viral load. Laboratories may not report Ct values routinely but should provide the result in the context of expert interpretation on request. If Ct values/viral loads are not available for any reason (for example some platforms do not display Ct values) the default is to assume a positive result represents a significant result and that the person is infectious. It may be appropriate however to retest the sample on a platform that does display Ct values.’

    Guidance is reasonably clear but do you have any information on how many reporting labs have platforms that display CT values (I don’t know - could be 10%, could be 90%)?

    An example of guidance being clear but not possible is the ‘one entrance, one exit’ guidance for hospitality. All good if you’ve two entrances, but many don’t and so guidance doesn’t apply.

    CT cycles run to 40 and admittedly high CT returns are few But imo the guidance is loose. Labs are unlikely to be comparing each sample with sample history for prior symptoms, prior infection, and local community level of infection, for every sample collected. And the director of each lab makes the call for cutoffs, there’s no regulation as such.

    What I’m saying is it’s hardly an unequivocally scientific streamlined collection of data. There is much open to interpretation based on personnel, and on system capability.

    Plus, that document is from April this year - is it possible that prior to then the thresholds for ‘detected’ were higher? What were the guidelines last October for example? Are the current comparisons for antigen vs PCR from recent PCR reporting guidelines or from last year?

    Yes PCR is the gold standard, but its drawbacks are sensitivity and time limitations - at this stage of vaccination rollout and infection control, while pressing on with hopefully resuming normal life, we should be employing antigen tests in certain situations/locations to manage transmission as an additional tool, where their advantage is accessibility, cost and faster result.

    Have you ever noticed over a period of time positive test always exceed confirmed cases and have ever considered why this may be?


  • Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://twitter.com/stapalato/status/1404502055172050945?s=19

    A thread with a little more detail from the hse antigen test working group.

    "TL:DR - PCR remains the gold standard for detection of SARS-CoV-2. Missing virus present at low levels, as antigen tests often do, can miss seriously ill, infectious, or pre-infectious individuals. Performance in real world significantly differs from manufacturers data. "

    "In meat processing plants, antigen test sensitivity was 51.9% compared with PCR. Looking at asymptomatic individuals with Ct values <=30 (equating to substantial viral load), test sensitivity of 68.9% did not meet WHO acceptiblity criteria (≥80% sensitivity)"

    PCR always be the method others are compared to because it is the gold standard. New methods will always be compared to the gold standard. That is the most accurate way of measuring an analyte.

    The downfall of PCR is that its "too sensitive ". There are procedures and protocols in place to reduce these incidences, yet the line of false positives being a significant factor in cases and prolonging restrictions is still trotted out. Its not true.

    Here are findings that asymptomatic people in meant palnts with high viral loads were missed by antigen tests.

    People and "experts" can debate til the cows come home. Its not going to change the results that people don't want to hear. There's the data. There's the findings. This is why decisions and policy are based on real world scientific data.
    I already posted those results last night and without antibody testing it means nothing.


  • Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I haven't looked at what other countries did as far as trialls before implementation. I'd guess that many went from the manufacturers sales pitch to handing them out to he public without thorough review.
    How soon you forget. We discussed this many weeks ago. I provided the link to where the Manufucturers' products were tested by Institutes on behalf of the German Government and they only approved that which meets their standards. It appears I have to keep dipping in to this thread to keep you honest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Have you ever noticed over a period of time positive test always exceed confirmed cases and have ever considered why this may be?

    Yes but I reckoned those were down to repeat testing in certain circumstances? Do you mean swab positives? Yes am aware but how much is that the norm - surely for scientific purposes you would acknowledge that must be known before drawing conclusions?


  • Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    9.9 cases per 100,000 over the last 7 days in my locality. These antigen tests are obviously doing something right which NPHET scoff at are mighty effective at controlling the spread of the virus...and it is a tourist destination too.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭quokula


    9.9 cases per 100,000 over the last 7 days in my locality. These antigen tests are obviously doing something right which NPHET scoff at are mighty effective at controlling the spread of the virus...and it is a tourist destination too.

    It seems strange to put that down to antigen tests that are barely being used, rather than the rapid vaccine rollout or the summer weather.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    There are quite a lot of examples of people being unable to fly home due to positive PCR tests post recover.
    Here is one article outlining the problem:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/irish-stranded-abroad-despite-full-recovery-from-covid-19-1.4486675

    But not the 6 months.

    We are in a Pandemic and there are going to be unusual cases, but for the safety of the whole population that is the way it has to be currently. I can’t see any of my relations for the duration of this pandemic, I know well how frustrating it can be but I also understand why the rules are in place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    9.9 cases per 100,000 over the last 7 days in my locality. These antigen tests are obviously doing something right which NPHET scoff at are mighty effective at controlling the spread of the virus...and it is a tourist destination too.

    Where are you and, if Ireland, where are you getting current data on local areas?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,846 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    Last 4 Tuesdays.

    25/5 - 7 day average in cases 443. In hospital 103 and in ICU 41.

    1/6 - 7 day average in cases 415, In hospital 89 and in ICU 34

    8/6 - 7 day average in cases 397, In hospital 77 in ICU 27.

    15/6 - 7 day average in cases 321*,in hospital 60 in ICU 23


    *Journalist Gavan Reilly added it up wrong. Good continued progress nonetheless.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,228 ✭✭✭✭klose


    First Up wrote: »
    The main concerns I heard expressed about Antigen tests is the unreliability of people conducting the tests on themselves. If they are done by people who know how to do it properly then they are a good measure, which is how a lot of businesses are screening their staff.



    My place of work (pharma site with 1,000+ employees) has a crowd in doing antigen tests and even they are never consistent with the swabbing, some barely enter the nose, others are nearly poking at your brain.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,562 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Yes but I reckoned those were down to repeat testing in certain circumstances? Do you mean swab positives? Yes am aware but how much is that the norm - surely for scientific purposes you would acknowledge that must be known before drawing conclusions?

    It's for a number of reasons, one of which is that people with very high CT values are often re-tested and not counted as positives.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 706 ✭✭✭TefalBrain


    65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

    Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,716 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    No Indian variant in New York it seems

    The cdc are telling vaccinated people not to get tested. When they do they run the test at a lower number of cycles than non vaccinated. Even if the test is positive, it isn't counted unless it has severe symptoms or results in hospitalisation. That's how to end the pandemic. The vaccines work, the ridiculous focus on cases needs to stop.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

    Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.

    Interestingly, Hungary has the second highest mortality rate in the world. More than three times that of Ireland.


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