Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

PhoneMain · 10-06-2021 04:26PM

fvp4 wrote: »

Well most viruses do in fact drop off in summer, and covid did that last year as well.

Correlation is not the same as causation.

normanoffside · 10-06-2021 04:36PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The fact it's happened 2 years in a row would give weight to the idea that there might be some seasonal aspect to the virus.

And the fact that possible Winter lockdowns have been mentioned both in the UK and Ireland for months.

@$hifty, any comment on the links I posted? I can post more European countries if you want with similar stats.

Note that in my OP which you took issue with I said 'Europe'. Neither Brazil or India are in Europe.

10-06-2021 04:46PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Just a few examples......

Thanks for that. Interesting that the countries selected are relatively poorer, underdeveloped countries compared to most Western nations. These countries have, anecdotally at least, been less than spectacular when it come to their reporting, testing and measuring of the scale of the virus. But anyway, some reasons as to why low we may have lower daily rates rates might be:

Bosnia - Hard to get info on other measures / restrictions, however they also have curfews and other severe measures in place......their death figures have been climbing steadily since the beginning of May. You've also used their peak as your baseline, but the daily graph shows that this date is an absolute outlier in terms of infections. Again, I'm not sure what caused this, but it's a little dishonest to use that date when the next highest date is about 60% of that figure you've used.

Albania - been in ultra severe lockdown since March, including curfews and drones patrolling the skies.

On 15 March, Albania closed all of its land borders until further notice, making all travel from Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo prohibited.[54] Educational institutions were ordered to prepare to move k-12 instructions online.[49] All physical government operations except essential activities were shut down, and civil servants ordered to stay down, but online services continued. All museums, cinemas, theatres, and public parks were closed indefinitely.[49] ....... The government implemented hi-tech monitoring measures using drones to identify persons violating quarantines.[55]

Ukraine - Closer to 1,800 per day than 1,700 but lets not get bogged down with the semantics. This seems to be the biggest success story of the three you've linked, however they had everything locked down for most of May and have only started opening back up. It will be interesting to see if their success story continues.

normanoffside wrote: »

The part about the sunshine had a smiley Face next to it

Fair enough, I'll ignore that part so.

In summary, thanks again, very interesting reading. I would be wary of equating correlation and causation (low vaccine rate plus low case numbers doesn't mean the two are intrinsically linked. I'd be more convinced, I must admit, if there was a more '1st world' country on your list but I'll admit there are more with a falling rate than I'd known about before.

VinLieger · 10-06-2021 04:46PM

Foxtrol wrote: »

NPHET were making that same stupid 'false sense of security' argument when it came to the public using masks - that the public couldn't be trusted to wear a mask and also follow the other guidance around social distancing etc. It led to Ireland being the slowest countries to mandate them.

It is like thinking the government shouldn't mandate seatbelts because it would mean everyone would ignore all rules of the road. The general public aren't as close to as stupid as NPHET seem to believe (obviously there are some outliers on that).

Indeed there are places where antigen testing could have and should have been implemented but weve wasted way too much time with Tony refusing to agree it has a place anywhere so it might be too late to properly implement it.

Everything ive heard on it from experts is it will work in certain situations but only with the correct planning and implementation which Tony refuses to even start.

10-06-2021 04:48PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The fact it's happened 2 years in a row would give weight to the idea that there might be some seasonal aspect to the virus.

The claim was that the drop-off was due to summer, and not due to the vaccine. You can't use the two years to claim what was being claimed when one had zero vaccines and another one had.

normanoffside · 10-06-2021 04:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Thanks for that. Interesting that the countries selected are relatively poorer, underdeveloped countries compared to most Western nations. These countries have, anecdotally at least, been less than spectacular when it come to their reporting, testing and measuring of the scale of the virus. But anyway, some reasons as to why low we may have lower daily rates rates might be:

Well I specifically mentioned Europe and the ones with Low Vaccination rates are always going to be the poorer (Non-EU/EEA countries) as they have no access to the EU vaccines.

On Poor reporting- I have mentioned % of previous peak in each case so we can assume cases being reported now are on the same basis as before.

On Ukraine, since lifting it's lockdown (I know Ukraine well it was effectively a work from home mandate for 3 weeks but most retail/hospitality businesses were open.
Cases have continued dropping and the 7-day average is now only 1/3rd of what they were when restrictions lifted.
On Monday past they reported 525 cases- the lowest in a year so we can expect them to keep dropping.

By The way, I can't locate it now but I saw a graph on Twitter and it compared the cases in the Balkan countries with High Vaccinations rates (Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia) with those with low vaccination rates (Albania, Bosnia, North Macedonia) and all their case graphs were almost identical.

I'm not doubting vaccines at all by the way, I just think thir real worth will be shown this winter.

GeorgeBailey · 10-06-2021 05:21PM

normanoffside wrote: »

I'm not doubting vaccines at all by the way, I just think thir real worth will be shown this winter.

100% agree with this. I won't believe we're out of the woods with covid until February.

ZX7R · 10-06-2021 05:35PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Well I specifically mentioned Europe and the ones with Low Vaccination rates are always going to be the poorer (Non-EU/EEA countries) as they have no access to the EU vaccines.

On Poor reporting- I have mentioned % of previous peak in each case so we can assume cases being reported now are on the same basis as before.

On Ukraine, since lifting it's lockdown (I know Ukraine well it was effectively a work from home mandate for 3 weeks but most retail/hospitality businesses were open.
Cases have continued dropping and the 7-day average is now only 1/3rd of what they were when restrictions lifted.
On Monday past they reported 525 cases- the lowest in a year so we can expect them to keep dropping.

By The way, I can't locate it now but I saw a graph on Twitter and it compared the cases in the Balkan countries with High Vaccinations rates (Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia) with those with low vaccination rates (Albania, Bosnia, North Macedonia) and all their case graphs were almost identical.

I'm not doubting vaccines at all by the way, I just think thir real worth will be shown this winter.

I be more inclined to say in most eastern European countries, a better reason for the sudden decline could be the result that they are spending way more time outdoors rather than just the sun causing it.
For example Poland cases have dropped off a cliff case numbers are lower than this time last year vaccination definitely playing apart also.
A hard winter coldest in 20 years ,nearly all the time spent indoors coupled with the English variant, the virus ripped through family households here at one stage 85% of cases were close contacts ie families you could have 3 generations living in the one household resapy for disaster.

Tired332 · 10-06-2021 05:50PM

Wonder will tony agree and reccomend this here?

https://twitter.com/NigelKellow/status/1403012402363387906?s=20

10-06-2021 06:41PM

PhoneMain wrote: »

Correlation is not the same as causation.

I didn’t mention a cause. I mentioned a seasonal correlation.

The cause could be varied but related to seasonality.

That phrase is becoming entirely useless as the not so brights pick it up and change its meaning so that they think correlations either disprove causation or don’t prove anything. In this case nobody doubts that there’s a cause behind the seasonal correlation between winter - in both hemispheres - and flu seasons. That’s not random across multiple years and multiple types of flues. That’s there’s a debate on the cause is true but there’s definitely a seasonal cause behind the correlation.

There could be multiple causes in the reduction of transmission or cases due to seasonality. Being outdoors, ventilating houses more, maybe uv killing the virus, or natural vit d. All of the above.

PhoneMain · 10-06-2021 07:00PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The fact it's happened 2 years in a row would give weight to the idea that there might be some seasonal aspect to the virus.

Ffs, no it doesnt. Theres serious mitigating factors for same. And if it was seasonal, explain India and Brazil last winter. It could be seasonal but we need more evidence than your skewed interpretation of data and ignoring of cofounders

PhoneMain · 10-06-2021 07:06PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I didn’t mention a cause. I mentioned a seasonal correlation.

The cause could be varied but related to seasonality.

That phrase is becoming entirely useless as the not so brights pick it up and change its meaning so that they think correlations either disprove causation or don’t prove anything. In this case nobody doubts that there’s a cause behind the seasonal correlation between winter - in both hemispheres - and flu seasons. That’s not random across multiple years and multiple types of flues. That’s there’s a debate on the cause is true but there’s definitely a seasonal cause behind the correlation.

There could be multiple causes in the reduction of transmission or cases due to seasonality. Being outdoors, ventilating houses more, maybe uv killing the virus, or natural vit d. All of the above.

Are you saying I'm not so bright? You seem to implying that because I used that phrase and those that use it dont understand it. But you've said nothing to disclaim it, only to discuss possible reasons for seasonality. You've ignored mitigating factors like social distancing, mass lockdowns (the largest in history), vaccine roll out (the largest in history) etc. These are independent of seasonality. It could be seasonal but I'm going to wait until the WHO confirm it is, not some randomer on boards. Flu is well established as a seasonal virus as it's been studied decades and hasnt had to contend with lockdowns. Measles is also a highly infectious illness, spread by respiratory drops......that's not seasonal.

normanoffside · 10-06-2021 07:10PM

ZX7R wrote: »

I be more inclined to say in most eastern European countries, a better reason for the sudden decline could be the result that they are spending way more time outdoors rather than just the sun causing it.

When I said 'sunshine' I was kind of implying that people go outside more when the weather is good

Speak Now · 10-06-2021 07:26PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Both, please.

Why are Brazil and India riddled with the virus, given their sunny weather patterns?

Edit: and which countries have seen falling case numbers with little vaccinations/lockdown restrictions?

I suppose it gets so hot outside you spend your time inside especially if lucky enough to have air conditioning. Not an issue for us obviously:D

Boggles · 10-06-2021 08:42PM

Foxtrol wrote: »

NPHET were making that same stupid 'false sense of security' argument when it came to the public using masks - that the public couldn't be trusted to wear a mask and also follow the other guidance around social distancing etc. It led to Ireland being the slowest countries to mandate them.

It is like thinking the government shouldn't mandate seatbelts because it would mean everyone would ignore all rules of the road. The general public aren't as close to as stupid as NPHET seem to believe (obviously there are some outliers on that).

The government had to mandate seat belts because a sizable amount of people refused to wear them.

What that has to do with a self administered test that the data shows people are fúcking up, God knows.

Answers on a postcard.

Foxtrol · 10-06-2021 09:11PM

Boggles wrote: »

The government had to mandate seat belts because a sizable amount of people refused to wear them.

What that has to do with a self administered test that the data shows people are fúcking up, God knows.

Answers on a postcard.

You're the one that claimed a legitimate justification that NPHET have against antigen tests is that the general public would have 'a false sense of security' and implying they'd act like reckless idiots after they tested negative from one.

Just in case you aren't being deliberately obtuse, the seatbelt and other rules of the road comparison is an example of how the general public aren't as stupid as you and NPHET seem to believe and can take a safety measure and not act like they are invincible.

Fine if you don't like that comparison, we can just look at mask wearing, something else that NPHET slow walked due to the exact same idiotic justification you're giving. When masks were finally pushed properly and mandated, how many people acted like the way NPHET believed they would, where was the big surge in cases that they caused?

That justification was proved wrong with masks and it is wrong now, it is just a pity no one in government or even opposition is strong enough to properly call them out on it.

daydorunrun · 10-06-2021 09:23PM

I'm not sure of the need for the test events like the one in on the nine news just now. People standing outside in segregated areas outside- for weeks now we've had crowds thronged uncontrolled into street like the scenes in Dublin and Salthill amongst others. There have been no spikes related to these uncontrolled events so we the need for controlled ones? It's clear outside events are safe.

10-06-2021 09:23PM

Would just like to post an update on things so far this week, back training in the gym, my mental health has improved 10000%
Haven't seen anybody drop dead or ambulances being called yet after 4 days.
Went out for a meal and drinks with others, same situation, mental health is in a better frame of mind and again not seeing anybody sneezing there eyeballs out or ambulances rushing around pubs.
Everybody seems to have the same opinion that we can never EVER go through a lockdown like we've just did again.

ceadaoin. · 10-06-2021 09:28PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

I think you enjoy the banter here Boggles :-)
Firstly those cases in the U.K. are primarily in unvaccinated or one shot people. Of those that have two shots, they’re mostly presenting as asymptomatic but are still counted as cases.
Secondly, the U.K. have stretched the gap on their Pfizer doses to 12 weeks. This is against manufacturer guidelines, I would be interested to see how many people who become symptomatic received one shot of Pfizer.
Thirdly, the U.K. is much more open than we are so cases will go up quicker. If hospitals and deaths remain low, this limits the impact of the variant. I’ve seen pictures of huge queues of young people lining up to get the vaccines in the U.K. - I think they’ll keep the situation under control but they did take a gamble with vaccine dosage gap which paid off until Boris delayed putting India on their MHQ list as he was trying to get a trade deal.

The US cdc aren't counting asymptomatic cases in vaccinated people and they are actively telling vaccinated people they don't need testing. Perhaps the UK should follow suit, the pandemic would be over in no time

Silentcorner · 10-06-2021 09:29PM

I see sheep wrote: »

7 deaths (with Covid).
For comparison there's around 450 heart disease deaths every day in the uk.

They only see Covid...

It's pointless pointing out anything else!!!

10-06-2021 09:53PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

They only see Covid...

It's pointless pointing out anything else!!!

What season is it?

The virus is virtually beaten here by vaccines, not the season but some still cling to their discredited canards.

Silentcorner · 10-06-2021 09:56PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What season is it?

The virus is virtually beaten here by vaccines, not the season but some still cling to their discredited canards.

What beat the virus last summer?

Silentcorner · 10-06-2021 10:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What season is it?

The virus is virtually beaten here by vaccines, not the season but some still cling to their discredited canards.

And seeing as you are so sure of yourself, can you please point to the information you are looking at that discredits that this viruses behaviour, in this country is not affected by seasonality.

Corby Trouser Press · 10-06-2021 10:04PM

That outdoor test event in Iveagh Gardens tonight is peak “covid theatre”.

Just such a nonsensical waste of time.

Dempo1 · 10-06-2021 10:07PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What season is it?

The virus is virtually beaten here by vaccines, not the season but some still cling to their discredited canards.

Quite a silly statement, the UK"s new case numbers have tripled in a week and tonight the NI health minister warning of up to 1,000 a day due to the delta variant, and just for the record, both NI and UK hands down way head of the republic with regard to Vacinations.

10-06-2021 10:07PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

And seeing as you are so sure of yourself, can you please point to the information you are looking at that discredits that this viruses behaviour, in this country is not affected by seasonality.

Of course it’s affected by seasonality. This virus is so much more transmissible than influenza for example that seasonality is not enough to prevent growth. As evidenced everywhere.

SEPT 23 1989 · 10-06-2021 10:07PM

That was the saddest gig I have ever seen

It’s probably the future unfortunately

Tork · 10-06-2021 10:09PM

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

That was the saddest gig I have ever seen

It’s probably the future unfortunately

Do you believe the vaccines won't work?

10-06-2021 10:11PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

What beat the virus last summer?

Lockdown bringing us to low digit numbers per day followed by relaxation to measures which prevented enough transmission to not have 3.0 R0 but still had 20 day doubling.

10-06-2021 10:14PM

Dempo1 wrote: »

Quite a silly statement, the UK"s new case numbers have tripled in a week and tonight the NI health minister warning of up to 1,000 a day due to the delta variant, and just for the record, both NI and UK hands down way head of the republic with regard to Vacinations.

Some people here have it right. How many of those uk cases are serious?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings