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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Per capita is the only one relevant here. Our GDP is massively inflated by multinational tech companies using Ireland as an address. You know this though.

    Per capita is a stupid measure in this context, and doesn't get used in a seriously by any economist when comparing borrowing.

    You don't think there's a difference with Ireland borrowing €10,000 per person and Afghanistan borrowing €10,000 per person? Size of economy and outputs is clearly a more relevant factor than population size.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Klonker wrote: »

    And just on the young people getting serious illness or dieing, don't forget NIAC told us the chance of a healthy person 20-34 dieing of covid is about 1 in 100,000 chance when they were advising on us of the AZ vaccine

    Just on this as it's been badly reported in the media as well some poor interviews by Karina Butler. NIAC based their guidance off MHRA and EMA. The one in hundred chance was based on a very low daily incidence rate of covid. (less than 5 per every 10,000* people in the population)
    At higher incidence rates chances of death increases.


    *I think this was the range it could even have been lower. If I get time later I'll try dig it up.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Long covid will likely be a significant impact on the health service and we will have to increase capacity in the health services to cope with it. Otherwise waiting lists for other services will also be impacted. Long covid though isn't really justifiable reason for lock down. That's hospitalisations for which case numbers in various demographics are the best proxy. In time, as vaccinations increase higher case numbers can be tolerated. We can already see this in Ireland. Vaccination should also hopefully reduce the incidences of long covid too.

    I thought at this stage given the number of people I know who had covid, I would know at least one still suffering long term effects.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Just on this as it's been badly reported in the media as well some poor interviews by Karina Butler. NIAC based their guidance off MHRA and EMA. The one in hundred chance was based on a very low daily incidence rate of covid. (less than 5 per every 10,000* people in the population)
    At higher incidence rates chances of death increases.


    *I think this was the range it could even have been lower. If I get time later I'll try dig it up.

    From the CSO's statistics, we cant work out death rate under 25 because deaths arent listed (just <5), but in 25-44 age bracket the chance of death is 0.05% or 5 in 10,000. (44 deaths vs 85000 cases) So you're kind of right there.

    Assuming max of 5 deaths in 15-24 bracket, its 0.01% fatality rate, 1 in 10,000.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,838 ✭✭✭quokula


    Absolutely Lumen — to me this point about the tolerable level of infection, hospitalisation and death is the absolute key central issue because that is the fulcrum on which the proportionality of restrictions must always be set.

    A few of the contributors on here who speak largely in favour of the Irish strategy — they make good points and they do so robustly. But where they constantly flounder in my eyes is this concept of the tolerable threshold, and I’ve had some long-ish discussions with people on here where this threshold seems to just move to whatever is handiest for justifying the status quo. It’s a kind of oscillating makey-uppy threshold which vacillates around from overwhelmed health service to minimising Covid outright to “maintaining a balance between reopening and infections” — whatever that means. It just seems like sitting on the fence in the context of a point which is absolutely central to how we determine the appropriate balance between rights and restrictions. How can any debate on restrictions be based on an honest, good faith basis if one constantly muddies the waters on the threshold you mention in your post?

    What you're not taking account of is the speed at which it grows exponentially. We were at a completely tolerable threshold before Christmas, but when we opened the virus grew way faster than we were able to react to and was quickly at risk of overwhelming health services, and it ultimately left hundreds and hundreds of people dead, who would otherwise be enjoying the start of Summer now.

    This is why we need to do thing in a phased manner and give ourselves time to measure the impact. We could have zero hospitalisations this week, open up 100% next week, and have thousands of hospitalisations locked in before we have a chance to react.

    We can't just assume everything will be alright, we've done that before and we saw what happened. Vaccines give us a lot of reason to be more optimistic of course, but that's no excuse not to be careful and gradual and to continually monitor the data.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    Lumen wrote: »
    The hospital admissions stats are fairly static and have been for some time, so I think you need to provide evidence that people aren't getting sick as it's not the most plausible explanation.

    I never said people aren't getting sick.
    I said 400 positive tests a day doesn't equate to 400 sick people.

    We can only go by hospitalizations, which I acknowledge are occurring, fortunately in low numbers.

    The ~400 cases per day are not diagnoses, they are based solely on the PCR tests rather than symptoms. Many of those 400 will be asymptomatic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,277 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    quokula wrote: »
    What you're not taking account of is the speed at which it grows exponentially. We were at a completely tolerable threshold before Christmas, but when we opened the virus grew way faster than we were able to react to and was quickly at risk of overwhelming health services, and it ultimately left hundreds and hundreds of people dead, who would otherwise be enjoying the start of Summer now.

    This is why we need to do thing in a phased manner and give ourselves time to measure the impact. We could have zero hospitalisations this week, open up 100% next week, and have thousands of hospitalisations locked in before we have a chance to react.

    We can't just assume everything will be alright, we've done that before and we saw what happened. Vaccines give us a lot of reason to be more optimistic of course, but that's no excuse not to be careful and gradual and to continually monitor the data.

    The Christmas plan assumed people would moderate their behaviour. They didn't, sufficiently.

    Almost all of those dead people were in age groups which have now been vaccinated.

    If you're looking for a valid comparison you'll need to look elsewhere than Ireland over Christmas, because that just doesn't hold any water.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    quokula wrote: »
    What you're not taking account of is the speed at which it grows exponentially. We were at a completely tolerable threshold before Christmas, but when we opened the virus grew way faster than we were able to react to and was quickly at risk of overwhelming health services, and it ultimately left hundreds and hundreds of people dead, who would otherwise be enjoying the start of Summer now.

    This is why we need to do thing in a phased manner and give ourselves time to measure the impact. We could have zero hospitalisations this week, open up 100% next week, and have thousands of hospitalisations locked in before we have a chance to react.

    We can't just assume everything will be alright, we've done that before and we saw what happened. Vaccines give us a lot of reason to be more optimistic of course, but that's no excuse not to be careful and gradual and to continually monitor the data.

    Given that we know vaccinated people spread virus less (& also are less likely to need hospital or die) the virus has less opportunity to spread this time as a result. Everytime it hits a vaccinated person theres a chance it might not spread on to another person at all.

    So we will not see anything close to the same growth rates we saw at christmas or before.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Look, the most vulnerable are vaccinated. Hospitals will now never become overwhelmed - the whole bloody point of restrictions.

    Open the hell up; enough with the "abundance of caution" for God's sake!

    Enough is enough.

    I don't buy the new argument that young people will now overwhelm the hospitals.

    Pure and utter s***e!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭Qiaonasen


    eskimohunt wrote: »
    Look, the most vulnerable are vaccinated. Hospitals will now never become overwhelmed - the whole bloody point of restrictions.

    Open the hell up; enough with the "abundance of caution" for God's sake!

    Enough is enough.

    I don't buy the new argument that young people will now overwhelm the hospitals.

    Pure and utter s***e!


    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.

    Jesus...:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    quokula wrote: »
    What you're not taking account of is the speed at which it grows exponentially. We were at a completely tolerable threshold before Christmas, but when we opened the virus grew way faster than we were able to react to and was quickly at risk of overwhelming health services, and it ultimately left hundreds and hundreds of people dead, who would otherwise be enjoying the start of Summer now.

    This is why we need to do thing in a phased manner and give ourselves time to measure the impact. We could have zero hospitalisations this week, open up 100% next week, and have thousands of hospitalisations locked in before we have a chance to react.

    We can't just assume everything will be alright, we've done that before and we saw what happened. Vaccines give us a lot of reason to be more optimistic of course, but that's no excuse not to be careful and gradual and to continually monitor the data.

    Again though, I find myself somewhat dismayed by the constant presentation of a false binary choice of: Option 1- Government’s Current Strategy or Option 2: Open Everything Next Week. This simply is not the fair or helpful way of looking at it — nor do I think the majority of people on here are advocating “opening up 100%” immediately and, even where they are advocating allowing certain businesses to open, people still seem to be fairly cognisant of the fact that some restrictions are still needed even for reopened premises (i.e. not having pubs being 5 deep at the bar).

    So I’ll put it to you, because I’ve struggled to get an answer on this, what is the tolerable threshold?

    Now, without even getting into debate about the past, let’s focus on the here and now. The cohort of our population most likely to die or wind up in ICU due to Covid have largely been vaccinated — and even those who have only received a first dose have a significant level of protection in the interim window to the second dose. That is what the science tells us — that the vaccines work — and if the science is wrong then we are up **** creek without a paddle and we would have ended up there regardless.

    With the vaccines rolled out to the vulnerable, the risk of the health service being overwhelmed for any indefinite period is far lower and the risk tolerance needs to go up. If I’m wrong about that then of course it would be nice of the government to present the metrics as to why, and explain how they are being proportionate rather than unreasonably cautious.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.


    It would make sense now to vaccinate those groups most responsible for spread of the virus to reduce the spread and break the chain. Say the 19-25age group this could be done alongside the age based system.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,788 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.

    1.8 billion jabs have been administered worldwide.


  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.

    I don’t think you’ve considered finances at all. Or human nature.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Firstly you are making a big assumption there that most of the underlying conditions in younger people are hypertension o0r something that would be similarly undiagnosed.
    From the study you linked, only 22% of people surveyed were under 45. it doesnt give a better age breakdown, however from CDC in America (which would likely have worse obesity and hypertension stats than here), we see that:
    7.7% of 18-39s have high blood pressure
    33% for 40-59s
    63% for 60+

    Incorrect. No idea where you're getting that from. The point is that there are those in the general population who are at risk and simply do not know it. Undiagnosed Hypertension in the "general population" is simply an example of this.

    Btw the HSE data on underlying conditions for those diagnosed with Covid across all age groups including younger age cohorts further demonstrates that underlying conditions are an issue for all age groups across the general population. Albeit as I already pointed out decreasing with age.

    timmyntc wrote: »
    So again, the risk is overwhelmingly borne by the older groups - so even if they did not know about their hypertension, the age based rollout means they will be first to get vaxxed also. Right now we are vaccinating 50s? So approx 80% of all adults with hypertension are likely to have at least 1 vaccine by the time we do all 50s+ with a first dose, which is very soon.

    The reality is, that you seem to want to dismiss, is that younger people are the healthiest of all age groups. Some will have conditions, some will die, but the vast vast majority are quite healthy.

    Again you're trying to disprove the issue relevant to underlying conditions by thinking the only issue is undiagnosed Hypertension. It isn't. That's simply an example to show that undiagnosed underlying conditions are not uncommon. Interesting that you highlight underlying conditions in younger age groups as overall being a non issue in relation to Covid because "younger people are the healthiest of all age groups" That however doesn't negate undiagnosed underlying conditions as being an issue for these groups - but does perhaps suggest why such conditions may remain undiagnosed due to the presumption amongst individuals - that younger age groups are healthy and not participating in regular health screening common in older individuals.

    And again its not just about 'death". Its about all those who may get seriously ill and require medical care.
    timmyntc wrote: »
    For hospital admission data & the risk of being overrun see https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries30/
    For every 100 confirmed cases in each age group, hospitalisation rate is:
    0-24 1.3%
    25-44 2.4%
    45-64 5.6%
    65-79 21.3%
    80+ 28.6%
    This doesnt account for the previously mentioned underlying conditions either, which are disproportionately more likely to be hospitalised. So unless you think somehow covid is going to rip through the younger groups and infect more than 100k people, our hospitals will never be overrun with covid again.

    None of that was said or implied - so you're simply having an argument with yourself on that. And funnily enough I never mentioned "hospitals been overrun" or covid ripping through younger age groups

    It remains that risk to the general public not "miniscule" as you evidently believe and more importantly why we have restrictions in order to keep the infection rate down whilst the vaccination programme is being rolled out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    gozunda wrote: »
    Incorrect. No idea where you're getting that from. The point is that there are those in the general population who are at risk and simply do not know it. Undiagnosed Hypertension in the "general population" is simply an example of this.

    Btw the HSE data on underlying conditions for those diagnosed with Covid across all age groups including younger age cohorts further demonstrates that underlying conditions are an issue for all age groups across the general population. Albeit as I already pointed out decreasing with age.




    Again you're trying to disprove the issue relevant to underlying conditions by thinking the only issue is undiagnosed Hypertension. It isn't. That's simply an example to show that undiagnosed underlying conditions are not uncommon. And again its not just about 'death". Its about all those who may get seriously ill and require medical care.



    None of that was said or implied - so you're simply having an argument with yourself on that. And funnily enough I never mentioned "hospitals been overrun" or covid ripping through younger age groups

    It remains that risk to the general public not "miniscule" as you evidently believe and more importantly why we have restrictions in order to keep the infection rate down whilst the vaccination programme is being rolled out.

    I proved my point with stats, you attempt to dismiss it with vague hand waving about undiagnosed conditions. You used hypertension as an example, trying to say that loads of people have undiagnosed hypertension - I then refuted that point by showing incidence of hypertension is incredibly low in younger cohorts relative to the older.

    Undiagnosed conditions are the new variants excuse it seems to justify disproportionate restrictions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I proved my point with stats, you attempt to dismiss it with vague hand waving about undiagnosed conditions. You used hypertension as an example, trying to say that loads of people have undiagnosed hypertension - I then refuted that point by showing incidence of hypertension is incredibly low in younger cohorts relative to the older.

    Undiagnosed conditions are the new variants excuse it seems to justify disproportionate restrictions.


    You dont need undiagnosed conditions even to justify restrictions . A large number of cohort 7 have not yet been vaccinated
    Cohort 7 which is deemed high risk has been largely forgotten by everyone and many left with no clue when they will be done


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I proved my point with stats, you attempt to dismiss it with vague hand waving about undiagnosed conditions. You used hypertension as an example, trying to say that loads of people have undiagnosed hypertension - I then refuted that point by showing incidence of hypertension is incredibly low in younger cohorts relative to the older.
    Undiagnosed conditions are the new variants excuse it seems to justify disproportionate restrictions.

    Nope. You attempted to use statistics irrelevant to the point I made that the risk to the general public now is not miniscule. I showed how underlying conditions exist in all age groups albeit decreasing in proportion by age.

    And again your claiming things not said. Not one mention of the word "loads" btw. But no undiagnosed conditions are not new "variants excuse" used "to justify disproportionate restrictions"

    And again hypertension is just one example of a common undiagnosed underlying condition. There are other conditions to add to that statistic.

    So it remains we know Underlying conditions are a feature of covid infection for all age groups. See the linked report showing the statistics for those diagnosed with covid with underlying conditions by age

    We know that underlying conditions are an serious issue with respect to conditions relative to comorbidities and covid. That remains unchanged for all those with diagnosdd / undiagnosed underlying conditions yet to be fully vaccinated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,123 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.

    Do you know what efficacy means?

    Just means people will catch it easier but still won't get seriously ill or end up in hospital.

    The vaccines are working brilliantly against death and serious illness no matter how many scary variants they keep throwing at us.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,149 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Any highlights from the briefing?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭Qiaonasen


    The vaccines are working brilliantly against death and serious illness no matter how many scary variants they keep throwing at us.


    For now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,613 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    For now.

    You're a glass is full of sh!t kinda person, arent you


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    Too many unknowns. Pfizer efficacy against one Indian strain is down to 75%. Still completely acceptable of course. However the more the virus spreads the more likely we are to get a variant which will cause problems. We open up faster we enhance the risk. With the virus is Asia currently surging it is far from over. It is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere. Expect more lockdowns in the next year or two or three.

    Worldwide just 1 billion jabs have been administered. Still a long long long way to go.

    Wrong


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,426 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Random comment here....but we are on thread number 35 :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,571 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    leahyl wrote: »
    Random comment here....but we are on thread number 35 :eek:

    Slowing down though! Sure fire indicator that we are coming out of this nightmare!!


  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Qiaonasen wrote: »
    For now.

    If there ever even is a variant that by passes the vaccines, we still can't rely on lockdown anymore.

    No business would be able to operate with the constant threat of closures or restrictions.
    The government can't keep paying PUP and business supports.
    The public are not going to accept many more years of lockdown.

    We would need a new vaccine developed, tested and administered to everybody. And sure then another variant could come along...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,426 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Azatadine wrote: »
    Slowing down though! Sure fire indicator that we are coming out of this nightmare!!

    Absolutely! I had a quick browse through the earlier threads and for a while, at the beginning, there was a new thread being started nearly every day!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Multipass wrote: »
    Too bad, let people be hospitalised, same concern as any other disease now. Better to spend this money (we are still squandering in the billions) on catching up the waiting lists for conditions with far higher risk.

    Ah I see the fuq the restrictions school of pandemic control. Not a fan personally.

    But no - it's not a case of either / or.

    It would be absolutely ridiculous and downright irresponsible to waste the resources which have been been brought into play to help reduce and keep down the rate of infection to current levels whilst our vaccination programme is being completed.

    Treatments of those with conditions which were put on hold are now running again. We will need to keep that momentum up but that does not mean we should throw the baby out with the bathwater.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    gozunda wrote: »
    Nope. You attempted to use statistics irrelevant to the point I made that the risk to the general public now is not miniscule. I showed how underlying conditions exist in all age groups albeit decreasing in proportion by age.

    And again hypertension is just one example of a common undiagnosed underlying condition. There are many other conditions to add to that statistic.

    So it remains Underlying conditions are a feature of covid infection for all age groups. See the linked report showing the statistics for those diagnosed with covid with underlying conditions by age

    And again your claiming things not said. Not one mention of the word "loads" btw. But no undiagnosed conditions are not new "variants excuse" used "to justify disproportionate restrictions" (sic)

    We know that underlying conditions are an serious issue with respect to known issues relative to comorbidities and covid. That remains unchanged for all those with undiagnosed underlying conditions yet to be fully vaccinated.

    Underlying conditions are a factor, but so too is age.
    93% of deaths with an underlying condition is significant - but so too is the fact that less than 10 people under 24 have died from covid, this despite the fact that ~10% of all cases in that age bracket have an underlying condition.

    So despite 1 in 10 covid cases in that age group (90,000 cases, so ~9000 underlying condition) - only 10 or less deaths.

    25-44 age bracket has ~18% underlying condition in positive cases
    and 44 deaths overall (85k cases, so ~17k underlying conditions)

    Twice the underlying conditions with covid, but over 4 times the deaths. And it only gets starker as you progress through the age groups. Basically - age is a significant factor, just as underlying conditions are. But an underlying condition in a 30 year old is not the same as an underlying condition in a 60,70, or 80 year old.
    And of course this is all assuming that most deaths in younger groups are in underlying conditions, if it isnt then that just means that your excuse of undiagnosed conditions has even less credence.

    Age and health conditions are the 2 big factors here, and despite health conditions, younger people are still at a miniscule risk.
    In the under 44s, only 44-54* people have died. Well over half the total cases are in these age brackets, but not even 1% of the deaths. Absurd that you would think these people are at any risk at this stage of the pandemic.

    *Data doesnt record exact number when there's less than 5 cases in a category.


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