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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2132
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    is_that_so wrote: »
    You may not be happy with the rate of progress but something is happening. Hotels, next week, outdoor dining the week after plus leisure centres and gyms. Plan for the rest of summer is imminent.

    Having dipped in and out of this thread, I am struck by the level of permanent outrage. No matter what the government, HSE and NPHET have done, it prompts predictable rants about 'useless' government, HSE 'incompetence' and NPHET 'selfishness'. Never ever is there any balance.

    I get that some posters very obviously have political agendas but it makes meaningful engagement pointless. I just think to myself that the froth would be flowing freely from their mouths if they were living in one of our neighbouring countries such as the UK, Portugal, Spain, France, Holland and Belgium given the much higher mortality rates.


  • #2133
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,854 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    Im guessing 4th July in the US will get branded as indepence day from the virus , it will be a good line in the sand

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #2134
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,939 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Deleted User wrote: »
    And that’s exactly my point.

    We’re very slowly reopening, but there is a reluctance about it.

    There is no positivity or excitement.
    If there wasn’t public uproar, I genuinely think we’d still have travel restrictions in place.

    What public uproar?

    There is no public uproar, the Irish people have fully rolled over and accepted the incompetence that they have been served up for the past 15 months.

    I look at the UK media and it is a constant stream of hard questions and demands of their government, over here we sit quietly and clap when we are told to.

    "The fighting Irish", don't make me laugh.


  • #2135
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    I was surprised you mentioned bars yesterday, time limits annoyed them last year, so why would they feel different this year?

    Indo reporting on it today:

    "Publicans set to oppose time limits for bars and restaurants after reopening"

    Yes they don't want to be told what the limit is, if pubs or restaurants decide on a time limit they want to set it themselves, the same as they can do with outdoor. VFI & LVA have been told the 105 mins will be temporary. As I posted yesterday, I suspect it'll be gone by end of July personally.

    However a quick search around my area & all that are opening have time limits on bookings, they didn't wait for any guidelines, they've decided themselves. My own favorite local is going with booking slots of 2hrs 30 mins for outdoor, most seem to be going with 2hrs.

    Going further afield into Dublin suburbs and I'm seeing times on bookings there too. It's common & I don't blame them, you know you'll get the custom and makes sense from a business point of view to have tables turning over while you've limited capacity.

    Some will put their own time limits on & some won't, but from what I can see the majority are and have been well before any draft guidelines came


  • #2136
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    iguana wrote: »
    It has caused an increase in hospital admissions. It's not huge at this point but includes people in their 30s, 40s and 50s which is somewhat worrying. It's being claimed that some have no underlying condition but we also know that one of the biggest risk factors for Covid (obesity) is often ignored by the media when they say a person has no underlying condition. So it could be the case that formerly very healthy people are now very sick with Covid or it could be the case that they actually were high risk.

    We heard the same 'claims' back in January and February this year that younger people with no underlying conditions were filling up the hospitals and it turned out to be false and I've no doubt its the same again. Even though the Taoiseach told us the Kent variant was 'deadlier' many times, Cillian De Gascun later said that they seen no noticeable difference in death, ICU and hospitalisation rates between that variant and previous ones.


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  • #2137
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,032 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    bucketybuck wrote: »
    What public uproar?

    There is no public uproar, the Irish people have fully rolled over and accepted the incompetence that they have been served up for the past 15 months.

    I look at the UK media and it is a constant stream of hard questions and demands of their government, over here we sit quietly and clap when we are told to.

    "The fighting Irish", don't make me laugh.

    What do you suggest we do?

    Burn some cars?


  • #2138
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    I would be interested to know about hospital admissions now . Are they vaccinated or not , are they young unvaccinated people , are they vulnerable Group 7 who are not yet vaccinated ?
    It would be interesting to know who is getting sick and why


  • #2139
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Yes they don't want to be told what the limit is, if pubs or restaurants decide on a time limit they want to set it themselves, the same as they can do with outdoor. VFI & LVA have been told the 105 mins will be temporary. As I posted yesterday, I suspect it'll be gone by end of July personally.

    However a quick search around my area & all that are opening have time limits on bookings, they didn't wait for any guidelines, they've decided themselves. My own favorite local is going with booking slots of 2hrs 30 mins for outdoor, most seem to be going with 2hrs.

    Going further afield into Dublin suburbs and I'm seeing times on bookings there too. It's common & I don't blame them, you know you'll get the custom and makes sense from a business point of view to have tables turning over while you've limited capacity.

    Some will put their own time limits on & some won't, but from what I can see the majority are and have been well before any draft guidelines came

    I guess we will have to disagree on the views of pubs, people involved that I know are dead against them, don't want to annoy regulars etc. Tables turninv over might piss off good customers!


  • #2140
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    Deleted User wrote: »
    At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

    It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

    I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

    dont worry there will be a new scariant along soon (bit like flu variants every year)

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • #2141
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    I guess we will have to disagree on the views of pubs, people involved that I know are dead against them, don't want to annoy regulars etc. Tables turninv over might piss off good customers!

    Not sure what there is to disagree on, most pubs were already going ahead and setting their own time limits before any draft guidance was issued this week. Take a look yourself if your trying to book somewhere. As I've mentioned a quick search online for pubs in the Dublin area and my own area, vast majority have the booking system in place with time slots. Nobody likes them but with limited capacity they're there.

    We all know regulars aren't going to be asked to leave, they weren't last year, they won't be this year.

    A point will come as I've said, probably late July, whereby the guidance on 105 indoors will go and much like outdoors from June 7th, it'll be up to each pub if they want a limit and how long.


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  • #2142
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 859 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Deleted User wrote: »
    At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

    It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

    I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

    I've been saying this about NPHET for months, it's called asymmetrical risk. There is no downside for NPHET if they keep restrictions in place and they have everything to loose by lifting them.


  • #2143
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Not sure what there is to disagree on, most pubs were already going ahead and setting their own time limits before any draft guidance was issued this week. Take a look yourself if your trying to book somewhere. As I've mentioned a quick search online for pubs in the Dublin area and my own area, vast majority have the booking system in place with time slots. Nobody likes them but with limited capacity they're there.

    We all know regulars aren't going to be asked to leave, they weren't last year, they won't be this year.

    A point will come as I've said, probably late July, whereby the guidance on 105 indoors will go and much like outdoors from June 7th, it'll be up to each pub if they want a limit and how long.

    Actually, I haven't seen any pubs doing slots yet for drinking only indoors. It's a good bit away yet I suppose.


  • #2144
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    OwenM wrote: »
    I've been saying this about NPHET for months, it's called asymmetrical risk. There is no downside for NPHET if they keep restrictions in place and they have everything to loose by lifting them.

    Yep.
    Sure most of the country will be vaccinated before we even allow indoor dining with time limits.

    So it’s difficult to see us allowing clubs, gigs and events etc for much much longer.

    I imagine there’ll be a spell were Irish people will be forced to head north for those things.


  • #2145
    kleiner feigling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    I was surprised you mentioned bars yesterday, time limits annoyed them last year, so why would they feel different this year?

    Indo reporting on it today:

    "Publicans set to oppose time limits for bars and restaurants after reopening"

    Can anyone explain why this specific time limit is better or worse than no limit or a longer limit?
    It seems so arbitrary, so why even impose it.
    I'm sure businesses are as exhausted by the arbitrary, non-scientific rules as I am. Just have to laugh about some of them at this stage or I'd go mad.

    I really wish more emphasis was put on ventilation which makes a demonstrable and positive difference. smh...


  • #2146
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,842 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

    It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

    I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

    We're at roughly 50% of the population having received a first dose of a vaccine. It's reckoned we need between 70% and 80% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're vaccinating up to 300,000 people per week so we are getting there. Things are opening up in response to reduced infection, hospitalisation and ICU numbers and increasing levels of vaccination.

    Recent outbreaks due to social events show it is still too early for a free for all but as the risk reduces, restrictions can be reduced proportionately.


  • #2147
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    FishOnABike wrote: »
    We're at roughly 50% of the population having received a first dose of a vaccine. It's reckoned we need between 70% and 80% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're vaccinating up to 300,000 people per week so we are getting there. Things are opening up in response to reduced infection, hospitalisation and ICU numbers and increasing levels of vaccination.

    Recent outbreaks due to social events show it is still too early for a free for all but as the risk reduces, restrictions can be reduced proportionately.
    And this is the nub of the issue. The fact that some other countries are apparently opening up faster is mostly irrelevant.

    Herd immunity requires a certain amount of the population to be fully vaccinated. Covid is still statistically a serious illness for adults; several times more likely to result in serious injury or fatality than the 'flu.

    And the fun thing about herd immunity is that it requires the entire population to be covered in order to defend against outbreaks. So if we have ourselves 70% covered, but only 10% of people in Donegal are vaccinated, then we will continue to see outbreaks in Donegal. If only 20% of under-30s are vaccinated and we reopen nightclubs, then we will see large outbreaks among the under-30 groups.

    And so on. We need full vaccination in 70%+ of every age group 18+ for outbreaks to be contained.

    This is why letting rip and opening up everything with gusto once the vulnerable are done, is not an appropriate response. People will die. Young people. And while it's a relatively small risk for younger people compared to older people, it's a relatively large risk compared to all of the other things which might kill a young person this year.

    This is why opening up with restrictions is OK, but opening without requires caution.


  • #2148
    kleiner feigling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    FishOnABike wrote: »
    We're at roughly 50% of the population having received a first dose of a vaccine. It's reckoned we need between 70% and 80% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're vaccinating up to 300,000 people per week so we are getting there.

    Would it not be more like 35%?
    2011 CSO has 65.6% of population under 44 y/o (i.e. the group that haven't been offered a jab yet).
    I know you can give or take a bit with the actual figures in 2021, but 50% seems off proportionally.


  • #2149
    kleiner feigling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    Important to remember also that vaccinated can, and do, still spread the virus.
    The beauty of the vaccine is the reduction in severity of disease.

    Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
    the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%
    Pushing to vaccinate that group is largely a waste of time and money, as the vaccine will still circulate regardless.

    The at risk groups will be protected by their own vaccines rather than other people's.

    Under 19s make up ~8% of population.
    I can't see many parents from chats with colleagues/friends who'd be willing to vaccinate their kids who are not at risk until the trials are complete, which is another year or 2 away.

    HPSC report: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/weeklyreportoncovid-19deathsreportedinireland/COVID-19_Weekly_Death_Report_Website_v1.1.pdf

    Census 2011: https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011profile2/Profile_2_Tables_and_Appendices.pdf


  • #2150
    Lumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,277 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
    the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%
    You need to be clear about what that death rate means. It means in the general population, and depends entirely on what the rate of infection is.

    It absolutely DOES NOT mean "if you get infected you have a 0.00104% chance of dying."

    Therefore it does not support your later point...
    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    Pushing to vaccinate that group is largely a waste of time and money, as the vaccine will still circulate regardless.

    I don't know the risks of hospitalisation and death by age for confirmed cases or infected people. I've tried to find out, and failed.

    To evaluate the "let it rip" proposition, you need to start with some assumption about how many people in a given age group (excluding the vaccinated high and very high people) will get infected or become a confirmed case (don't know, maybe 70%?), and then apply the hospitalisation and death probabilities to those.

    Off you go. :D


  • #2151
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    Would it not be more like 35%?
    2011 CSO has 65.6% of population under 44 y/o (i.e. the group that haven't been offered a jab yet).
    I know you can give or take a bit with the actual figures in 2021, but 50% seems off proportionally.
    The 15% difference would be made up of frontline workers and others who were vaccinated before the age-based cohorts kicked off.
    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
    the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%
    The under-35s are a large group. Lumping them all together under a single statistic doesn't make sense.

    If you look at the HSPC link you've posted, you can see that someone in the 25-34 age group is nearly five times more likely to die of Covid than someone under 25.

    So if we open up wide without this group done, we could realistically end up with a few hundred thousand new infections again in a matter of weeks. Which, statistically would lead to about 50 deaths of people under 35. That's if we take those HSPC figures and add a few assumptions.

    But it would have a knock-on effect of exposing those who are higher risk and/or the vaccine didn't work; which could be hundreds of deaths.

    Herd immunity requires the entire population to covered, not just those at risk. Without herd immunity, those who can't get the vaccine or for whom it's not effective, are always exposed.


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  • #2152
    Lumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,277 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Also
    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    I can't see many parents from chats with colleagues/friends who'd be willing to vaccinate their kids who are not at risk until the trials are complete, which is another year or 2 away.

    Do you mean that

    (a) you don't know anyone who will be willing to enroll their child in a clinical trial or
    (b) you don't know anyone who will consent to have their child vaccinated with a vaccine which has been approved for general use, i.e. outside clinical trials?

    The clinical trials will not take a year or two. The FDA has already authorized Pfizer-BioNTech for use in adolescents, and I doubt the EMA will be far behind.

    Smells a bit like "experimental vaccine!!!!" hysteria.


  • #2153
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We opened indoor dining last year on June 29th with nobody vaccinated and everything was grand.

    It’s bizarre that we won’t do the same this year when we have half the population vaccinated

    We’re haemorrhaging billions, no hurry like…


  • #2154
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,789 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Having dipped in and out of this thread, I am struck by the level of permanent outrage. No matter what the government, HSE and NPHET have done, it prompts predictable rants about 'useless' government, HSE 'incompetence' and NPHET 'selfishness'. Never ever is there any balance.

    I get that some posters very obviously have political agendas but it makes meaningful engagement pointless. I just think to myself that the froth would be flowing freely from their mouths if they were living in one of our neighbouring countries such as the UK, Portugal, Spain, France, Holland and Belgium given the much higher mortality rates.

    While I agree with the comments on the relentless hyperbole, we have a much younger population than all of the countries you mentioned, which directly correlates to our lower mortality. There has been decades of public service failings which have lead to a calamatous health system that needs more protection than any other in Europe, despite us having the youngest population in the continent, during a pandemic where outcomes are directly related to age. There is no point in being mad at the current government who had little option but to work with what they have but at the same time there has been a deliberate obfuscation of the death numbers to hide the past failings of the state institions


  • #2155
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    seamus wrote: »
    And this is the nub of the issue. The fact that some other countries are apparently opening up faster is mostly irrelevant.

    Herd immunity requires a certain amount of the population to be fully vaccinated. Covid is still statistically a serious illness for adults; several times more likely to result in serious injury or fatality than the 'flu.

    And the fun thing about herd immunity is that it requires the entire population to be covered in order to defend against outbreaks. So if we have ourselves 70% covered, but only 10% of people in Donegal are vaccinated, then we will continue to see outbreaks in Donegal. If only 20% of under-30s are vaccinated and we reopen nightclubs, then we will see large outbreaks among the under-30 groups.

    And so on. We need full vaccination in 70%+ of every age group 18+ for outbreaks to be contained.

    This is why letting rip and opening up everything with gusto once the vulnerable are done, is not an appropriate response. People will die. Young people. And while it's a relatively small risk for younger people compared to older people, it's a relatively large risk compared to all of the other things which might kill a young person this year.

    This is why opening up with restrictions is OK, but opening without requires caution.

    The more risk of “outbreaks” is a different risk to what the severity of the more stringent restrictions is/was predicated on. We did not pursue unprecedented societal and economic lockdown simply because Covid was infectious — but for the additional factor that it’s spread bore a risk of causing a great many deaths among the vulnerable. That was the risk, and it follows therefore that the more successful you are in shielding the vulnerable (whether through encouraging certain shielding behaviour or, as we have now, through vaccination), the less serious the risk posed by outbreaks among the young. If we want a “proportionate” reopening, this must be acknowledged, but we remain in an “abundance of caution” reopening.

    Even on this thread, where it seems a fair majority of people are sceptical about the policy, it seems the bulk of people believe there is some need for precautions and certain restrictions, but simply not to the severity and duration of what has been pursued. One is not saying “let it rip” if they are advocating the reopening of pubs with continued restrictions on capacity, social distancing etc.

    Yes, a small number of young people might catch Covid and die — I could be one of them, or my siblings or friends — but there is no policy that abolishes the risk of premature death. When Covid is overcome, the world will start to reopen and young people will die doing all manner of things in the exercise of their freedom — they will die on backpacking trips, they will die on roads, they will die of infections, they will die at the hands of bad people. They will put others at risk, and be put at risk by others. While the individual risk of each of these things is low, the collective of the risks entails that the mere exercise of basic liberty hugely increases your risk of encountering one of these fates and the many other types of fate that may befall you. The dark but inescapable irony is that the end of lockdown will effectively kickstart chains of circumstances that will lead many young people around the world to their deaths — I could be one of them — when they otherwise could have been kept safely at home under restriction.


  • #2156
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Lumen wrote: »
    I don't know the risks of hospitalisation and death by age for confirmed cases or infected people. I've tried to find out, and failed.

    To evaluate the "let it rip" proposition, you need to start with some assumption about how many people in a given age group (excluding the vaccinated high and very high people) will get infected or become a confirmed case (don't know, maybe 70%?), and then apply the hospitalisation and death probabilities to those.
    Ignoring hospitalisation, we can at least see how many people in each age cohort have tested positive and how many have died.

    This means that we can say that the IFR for the 25-34 age group is 0.029% (13 deaths out of 44,737 cases).

    If, in a "let it rip" scenario, we saw 50% of this group infected, (330k cases), that would probably result in about 90 deaths. Even 25% infected would lead to 45 deaths.

    Sounds relatively small in the context of nearly 5,000 overall. Not sure I'd be happy to tell those 45 families though that they lost a family member in the prime of life so that people could go clubbing again a few months quicker.


  • #2157
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    We opened indoor dining last year on June 29th with nobody vaccinated and everything was grand.

    It’s bizarre that we won’t do the same this year when we have half the population vaccinated

    We’re haemorrhaging billions, no hurry like…

    Doubling time from opening until mid october was a reasonably consistent 20 days. If 1/3 of the country is vaccinated, maybe the doubling time is 30 days


  • #2158
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    We opened indoor dining last year on June 29th with nobody vaccinated and everything was grand.

    It’s bizarre that we won’t do the same this year when we have half the population vaccinated

    We’re haemorrhaging billions, no hurry like…

    Negative interest rates its all good


  • #2159
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,789 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    Important to remember also that vaccinated can, and do, still spread the virus.
    The beauty of the vaccine is the reduction in severity of disease.

    Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
    the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%
    Pushing to vaccinate that group is largely a waste of time and money, as the vaccine will still circulate regardless.

    The at risk groups will be protected by their own vaccines rather than other people's.

    Under 19s make up ~8% of population.
    I can't see many parents from chats with colleagues/friends who'd be willing to vaccinate their kids who are not at risk until the trials are complete, which is another year or 2 away.

    HPSC report: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/weeklyreportoncovid-19deathsreportedinireland/COVID-19_Weekly_Death_Report_Website_v1.1.pdf

    Census 2011: https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011profile2/Profile_2_Tables_and_Appendices.pdf

    Great example of the perfect being the enemy of good fallacy. Vaccination reduces your chance of catching and spreading the virus. Each person we vaccinate will reduce the risk of spread. It's obvious that every extra vaccination will help the population to reduce the spread of the virus. Just because the vaccine doesn't 100% reduce the chance of spread doesn't mean we throw it out of the window for under 35's


  • #2160
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Doubling time from opening until mid october was a reasonably consistent 20 days. If 1/3 of the country is vaccinated, maybe the doubling time is 30 days

    Even then could be ok, since that 30% will keep increasing, pushing that doubling time out and out, with less and less severe cases as the vaccines work down the age groups.


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  • #2161
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    kleiner feigling wrote: »
    Important to remember also that vaccinated can, and do, still spread the virus.
    The beauty of the vaccine is the reduction in severity of disease.

    Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
    the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%
    Pushing to vaccinate that group is largely a waste of time and money, as the vaccine will still circulate regardless.

    The at risk groups will be protected by their own vaccines rather than other people's.

    Under 19s make up ~8% of population.
    I can't see many parents from chats with colleagues/friends who'd be willing to vaccinate their kids who are not at risk until the trials are complete, which is another year or 2 away.

    HPSC report: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/weeklyreportoncovid-19deathsreportedinireland/COVID-19_Weekly_Death_Report_Website_v1.1.pdf

    Census 2011: https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011profile2/Profile_2_Tables_and_Appendices.pdf

    Two ways of stopping spread.
    1. don't catch it the vaccines help with that, over 50% I think.
    2. Stopping passing it on which the vaccines also do to some extent, not sure of the numbers, but it is there too.


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